Speculation: Roster Building Thread XI

[LokiDog]

Good point, Cernak?

Cernak is possible, but he again won't cost THAT much to re-sign and he's also a right shot. They have Hedman, McDonagh and Sergachev who are all left shots and combined make 19.425M

Moving one of them sheds more cap, which they need to do, and probably gets them a not too bad return. Sergachev is overrated and less important to them continuing their dynasty than McDonagh is. He also could bring them back a 1st+.

My guess is Sergachev for a 1st + prospect (no cap coming back) then they pay Seattle something like a 2nd + Joseph to take Johnson. In that situation they'd have managed to shed 9.8M cap, putting them 6.2M under the cap.

They'd still have all of their meaningful forwards (Kuch, Stamkos, Point, Cirelli, Gourde, Killorn, Palat, Maroon, Ross) and a solid defense (Hedman, McDonagh, Cernak, Rutta, Foote) and be 6.2M under the cap while only needing to sign 1F, 1D and a backup G. Still would be in a strong position for a potential 3peat.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Is TB allowed to leave McDonagh unprotected? I thought he had a NMC?

It's up to the league to decide whether or not a player's clause prohibits them from being exposed. It's not as black and white as "NMC = protected"

 

[DutchShamrock]

You know, I wonder if NYR and Seattle have a trade worked out for a LD. But we also have to stay out of the circumvention game. We can't help some other team with expansion and then reap some benefit.

The types of players available to Seattle, we could address LD and character in the bottom 6 for Strome. Not a lot of good, scoring centers in expansion. Vegas is still searching for it. Maybe Buchnevich.

It's my conspiracy theory on why we are silent so far. Could be as simple as no good deals yet, but it makes sense to me.

And Montreal-Tampa... I bet Sergachev. They LOVE McDonagh in TB. They will keep their core and find replacements for the role players.

 

[Bacon Artemi Bravo]

It's up to the league to decide whether or not a player's clause prohibits them from being exposed. It's not as black and white as "NMC = protected"

Just curious, what factors influence the distinction?

 

[Ola]

Just curious, what factors influence the distinction?

The wording of the clause. Does it like say that no moves are allowed except ordinary waivers or does it explicitly just ban trades allowing everything else?

 

[smoneil]

I will say Chytil looked really good when he was with Lafraniere and Kakko, in fact they all did, even when they didnt' get on the score sheet, they were constantly having the puck, putting pressure on the other team, creating chances

As much as people talk about how Chytil started the season great, it was actually in April, with the Kid line, where he got most of his production this season (10 points in 16 games). In response, Quinn played him about 12 and a half minutes per game that month. His production was spiking, and Quinn cut his minutes.

This was his PPTOI/Game during that month:

4/1: 1o seconds
4/3: No pp time
4/6: No pp time
4/8: No pp time
4/9: No pp time (though to be fair, the team didn't have any power plays in this game)
4/11: No pp time
4/13: No pp time (no power plays in this game)
4/15: 13 seconds
4/17: No pp time
4/18: No pp time
4/20: 13 seconds
4/22: 11 seconds
4/23: No pp time
4/25: No pp time
4/27: No pp time
4/29: 6 seconds

So in the month where Chytil had a hot hand, Quinn put him on the power play for a grand total of 53 seconds spread across 16 games.

Looking through the game logs, the literal only time where Chytil got extended time (more than a minute per game) of power play opportunity was right after he came back from Covid and his wrist injury, which also coincided with Panarin's leave of absence and the worst part of Zibanejad's extended funk.

So trying to look at this season and make ANY big claims about Chytil's potential efficacy as a power play player is ridiculous.

 

[AirGut]

You know, I wonder if NYR and Seattle have a trade worked out for a LD. But we also have to stay out of the circumvention game. We can't help some other team with expansion and then reap some benefit.

The types of players available to Seattle, we could address LD and character in the bottom 6 for Strome. Not a lot of good, scoring centers in expansion. Vegas is still searching for it. Maybe Buchnevich.

It's my conspiracy theory on why we are silent so far. Could be as simple as no good deals yet, but it makes sense to me.

And Montreal-Tampa... I bet Sergachev. They LOVE McDonagh in TB. They will keep their core and find replacements for the role players.

I think we're just silent because Drury is working behind the scenes with BUF intensely

 

[smoneil]

If strome is traded it's bc a better player is coming here.

I'd move Strome even if no other move was made. As an incoming coach, I would want nothing at all to do with a player who pulled what he pulled on the previous coach.

 

[NYSPORTS]

the counter though is why are players signing those deals right now knowing that they may be taking really low money later one when the cap starts rising again? i'm not arguing at all, i am just questioning it from the player side, what is really their incentive right now to sign those deals?

idk - we see Mac getting $6.3 for two more years in Colorado. Somehow you have to sign some on the cheaper. Not everybody should be awarded a ton.

 

[Synergy27]

As much as people talk about how Chytil started the season great, it was actually in April, with the Kid line, where he got most of his production this season (10 points in 16 games). In response, Quinn played him about 12 and a half minutes per game that month. His production was spiking, and Quinn cut his minutes.

This was his PPTOI/Game during that month:

4/1: 1o seconds
4/3: No pp time
4/6: No pp time
4/8: No pp time
4/9: No pp time (though to be fair, the team didn't have any power plays in this game)
4/11: No pp time
4/13: No pp time (no power plays in this game)
4/15: 13 seconds
4/17: No pp time
4/18: No pp time
4/20: 13 seconds
4/22: 11 seconds
4/23: No pp time
4/25: No pp time
4/27: No pp time
4/29: 6 seconds

So in the month where Chytil had a hot hand, Quinn put him on the power play for a grand total of 53 seconds spread across 16 games.

Looking through the game logs, the literal only time where Chytil got extended time (more than a minute per game) of power play opportunity was right after he came back from Covid and his wrist injury, which also coincided with Panarin's leave of absence and the worst part of Zibanejad's extended funk.

So trying to look at this season and make ANY big claims about Chytil's potential efficacy as a power play player is ridiculous.

Exactly. Exactly. Exactly. Thank you.

Why are so many people so hell bent on under rating Chytil? I don’t get it.

 

[haohmaru]

And Montreal-Tampa... I bet Sergachev. They LOVE McDonagh in TB. They will keep their core and find replacements for the role players.

Honestly, I didn't see a lot to love about Sergachev's playoff performance.

 

[Machinehead]

If you give McDavid Chytil's minutes scoring at the same rate, he finishes the season with roughly 36 points. He had 105.

Production is a function of usage more than a function of talent.

 

[LokiDog]

Honestly, I didn't see a lot to love about Sergachev's playoff performance.

That's why he's the most sensible one to move. They need to shed cap. He makes 4.8M and is young enough and has enough of that draft pedigree buzz around him to bring them a good return. With him moved, they save nearly 5M and can protect virtually everyone important to their continued success. They'll still need to shed some cap, but they can do so on their own terms by dealing someone like Gourde for at least some kind of return, or be paying Seattle some picks/prospects to take Seattle boy Johnson off their hands. Sergachev has pretty high trade value still, but is not an important piece of that teams' success with Hedman, McDonagh, Cernak and Vasilevsky on the back end.

 

[Machinehead]

That's a drop of *checks notes* 69 points

 

[smoneil]

Exactly. Exactly. Exactly. Thank you.

Why are so many people so hell bent on under rating Chytil? I don’t get it.

Adding to this--if you look at his splits, most of Chytil's production came against NJ (6 in 7gp), Pittsburgh (3 in 6gp), Philly (5 in 6gp--and only two of these came during the two massive blowout games), and the Islanders (3 in 7gp). He had 2 points in six games apiece against Washington and Buffalo (although his TOI/G vs. Washington was absurdly low, at just 12:46 per game). The only team he really seemed to struggle with was Boston (1 point in 4 gp), and two of those games came shortly after his return from injury/Covid.

Also, he and Kakko looked like our two best players in the play-in series last year against Carolina.

I legit think this kid has the potential to be a star 2nd line center or a mid-level 1st line center at his peak (ie: better than Stepan but never really being seen as top 15 in the league). I see a Marc Savard kind of trajectory for him, but with a bit less vision and a bit more goal scoring (and hopefully fewer injuries. It's a real shame what happened to Savard).

 

[LokiDog]

If you give McDavid Chytil's minutes scoring at the same rate, he finishes the season with roughly 36 points. He had 105.

Production is a function of usage more than a function of talent.

That's part of why an expansion team can be better than people expect out of the gate. Oh, you have Jared McCann and Mason Appleton in your top six, you're going to suck. Nine months later, wow McCann put up 50 points and Appleton is a legit second liner, what a good pick by Seattle.

 

[NYR Viper]

If you give McDavid Chytil's minutes scoring at the same rate, he finishes the season with roughly 36 points. He had 105.

Production is a function of usage more than a function of talent.

With this same line of thinking, look at Tyler Johnson and his drop in production and how it correlates to his drop in playing time. I’m not sure I hate the idea of adding him depending on what TB would give to take him.

 

[NYR Viper]

For those really into advanced stats, can someone outline to me the reason why Strome is a bad center? I look quickly at his last couple of seasons and man, they look pretty good.

 

[Machinehead]

That's part of why an expansion team can be better than people expect out of the gate. Oh, you have Jared McCann and Mason Appleton in your top six, you're going to suck. Nine months later, wow McCann put up 50 points and Appleton is a legit second liner, what a good pick by Seattle.

Right, they'll still suck. Edmonton would win 20 games if you gave Chytil McDavid's role.

But at the same time, point totals are really archaic.

Look at this way: let's assume the truth is in the middle. Chytil was something like 46th off the top of my head in p/60. Do I think he's a star first liner (which 46th is)? No, but he was firmly a top six producer in 20-21. Just didn't get the minutes.

Same with McDavid. Assuming the rate stays constant is a huge assumption. But just to hit 53 points (half of what he actually got) McDavid would have to post about 6.20 p/60. That's never been done.

Usage is a massive factor and we should look beyond (albeit maybe not exclude entirely) raw totals.

 

[EdJovanovski]

Not enough people talk about Brett Berard.

If you would've told me he was a top 3 draft pick when I was watching the WJC I would've believed you. He was one of the best players in the entire tournament and was noticeable every shift, despite being like the youngest player in the entire tournament other than Matt Beniers. (who he outproduced & looked better than). He was only 6 days shy of being a 2021 draft pick, and would easily be a 1st rounder this year. Berard is small but he's an excellent skater and is an absolute thorn in the side of opposition.

Edit: Another thing he has that our team lacks at times is swagger & confidence. A little thing I noticed that was unusual, every time I heard a stick smacking against the ice it ended up being him. Every time he's open he would smack his stick very loudly calling for a pass because he wanted the puck at all times, he had this attitude like he knew he was the best. He's extremely aggressive and would legit just shove guys after each face-off for no reason lol, he would get in a scrum after nearly every whistle too. Looked like a young Brad Marchand out there.

 

[DanielBrassard]

For those really into advanced stats, can someone outline to me the reason why Strome is a bad center? I look quickly at his last couple of seasons and man, they look pretty good.

He's not, he's perfectly fine for now. It's just a question of what he's going to want as a UFA though.

 

[IDvsEGO]

For those really into advanced stats, can someone outline to me the reason why Strome is a bad center? I look quickly at his last couple of seasons and man, they look pretty good.

He's not a "bad" center.
Bad penalties(lazy), poor defensive zone play, and barely 50% on faceoffs overall, and a low ozone faceoff win %.
Mostly though the poor defensive zone play.

I got off the "product of panarin" train earlier this year, when panarin was out, but now its more he's more of a passenger on a line and doesn't drive play very well for someone who wants to be a 2c. He's got a good RH shot, and he's not bad on the pp.

I think most people though just really dislike him because quinn loved him and he ended up blocking chytil.

 

[Synergy27]

Adding to this--if you look at his splits, most of Chytil's production came against NJ (6 in 7gp), Pittsburgh (3 in 6gp), Philly (5 in 6gp--and only two of these came during the two massive blowout games), and the Islanders (3 in 7gp). He had 2 points in six games apiece against Washington and Buffalo (although his TOI/G vs. Washington was absurdly low, at just 12:46 per game). The only team he really seemed to struggle with was Boston (1 point in 4 gp), and two of those games came shortly after his return from injury/Covid.

Also, he and Kakko looked like our two best players in the play-in series last year against Carolina.

I legit think this kid has the potential to be a star 2nd line center or a mid-level 1st line center at his peak (ie: better than Stepan but never really being seen as top 15 in the league). I see a Marc Savard kind of trajectory for him, but with a bit less vision and a bit more goal scoring (and hopefully fewer injuries. It's a real shame what happened to Savard).

I agree on all accounts and have been screaming for him to be extended long term at a reasonable rate before it’s too late.

 

[smoneil]

Not enough people talk about Brett Berard.

If you would've told me he was a top 3 draft pick when I was watching the WJC I would've believed you. He was one of the best players in the entire tournament and was noticeable every shift, despite being like the youngest player in the entire tournament other than Matt Beniers. (who he outproduced & looked better than). He was only 6 days shy of being a 2021 draft pick, and would easily be a 1st rounder this year. Berard is small but he's an excellent skater and is an absolute thorn in the side of opposition

I'm excited about him and Vierling. I always get a bit attached to the boom or bust prospects, haha.

 

[NYRangers16]

If strome is traded it's bc a better player is coming here.

You’d think so. But we really don’t know for sure because Drury has only made minor moves so far. I want them to add a better 2C for depth purposes, but either way hopefully we have a better lineup with more depth. And also, hopefully Chytil does get more PP time if they balance out the PP usage.