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Roster Building Thread VI (2022-23): Offseason edition

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Teams in the NHL this year scored 2.58 g/60 minutes of 5 on 5 ice time this year. They scored 6.55 g/60 at 3 on 3. Not. Comparable.

bhamill said:
On the other hand when you are trying to talk about a person’s scoring sans powerplay time, EV is fine. Perfect? No. But 4x4 , 3x3 and EN situations are dwarfed by how much of EV is 5v5. And mostly that’s what differentiates Laf from most players we compare him to: the comparables mostly get way more pp time/scoring. I think taking linemates into account is way more important than EV vs 5v5, but we don’t do much of that either, we are just trying to basically compare apples to apples.
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Strongly disagree because in 3 v 3 and with the goalie pulled your chance of scoring on a given play is increased significantly, both ways. They are random and noisy events and not a part of the flow of the game, especially in the playoffs.

Guyute said:
It largely IS semantics because these RARE events, despite being more random, don't change the statistics all that much to make my statement, the two players scored at close to the same rate, inaccurate. Anyways it's not worth wasting any more time splitting hairs.
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yeah but those rare events produce a much stronger chance of producing a goal, particularly goalie pulled and 3 on 3.
 
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Oh god...the pipe dream of wanting Artemi "The Playoff Pretender" Panarin out of town when he negotiated an albatross 11.6M deal + full NMC has devolved into Connor McDavid talk.

This will be a long, painful offseason
 
Even strength:
IMG_6352.jpeg


5v5:

IMG_6353.jpeg


Are we seriously arguing about this? 30 minutes on a 1,000 minute sample do not have a significant effect and yes, I am actually interested in how a player performs at 4v4 which is really not all the uncommon an occurrence. The 3v3 and empty net data are just noise in these numbers.
 
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UnSandvich said:
A couple things (I’m just responding to you specifically bc I’m at work and don’t have time to go through the thread and @ each person):

First, I am pretty sure you (and a lot of other people in the thread) did not read my post, the one that mentioned the comparison in their scoring numbers.My statement was not a “X = Y”, but a “X is very close to Y”. I specified “basically equal”, rather than just “equal”, for that reason. 1.64 =/= 1.78, but they’re also not significantly different. It came out to a total of 2 more 5v5 points for Garland with each playing over 1000 mins.

Second, I think that when you consider each player’s most common line mates at 5v5, I think Lafreniere makes up ground. Maybe even surpasses. I love Fil & Kakko, don’t get me wrong, but they’re not JT Miller & Bo Horvat.

Third, I disagree that Laf trending up, or Garland trending down to a lesser extent, are massive assertions. Player development is not linear by any stretch, but in general, as players get older they play more and score more until they hit their peak and start declining. I don’t think Laf has hit his peak. On the other hand, Garland might trend down simply bc his team traded away one of his most common (and rather more productive) line mates in Bo Horvat
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And what about Garlands 3rd most common linemate being Sheldon Dries,his fourth most common being Nils Aman, and his fifth most common being Dakota Joshua? Miller was his most common but he didn't have at on of minutes with him or anything.
 
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Get me Owen Beck from Habs if Lafy is involved. Young center depth more or a need. Beck is a really underrated prospect. Teammare of Othmann
 
Machinehead said:
You illustrated why it's not. The 3v3 and goalie pull numbers are noise clearly affecting the sample.

If you're interested in 4v4. just look at 4v4. It's available.
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The minuscule 3v3 time isn’t affecting the dataset at all. And I don’t think 4v4 should be disregarded, it’s a common game situation unlike the others.
 
Synergy27 said:
The minuscule 3v3 time isn’t affecting the dataset at all. And I don’t think 4v4 should be disregarded, it’s a common game situation unlike the others.
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Obviously it is because the even strength numbers and the 5v5 numbers are very different.

If you don't want to disregard 4v4, it makes way more sense to just look at 4v4.
 
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Machinehead said:
Center is absolutely not more of a need for this team than LD.
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True but Rangers dont have a future young 2 way talented center in Hartford or close to pro hockey, that can be considered top 6 down the road. That is an issue. Most of their skilled centers are still in juniors. Would be nice to have a young center on the same line with Cuylle not an AHL vet with no NHL future like Brodzinski Bisho etc
 
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RangersFan1994 said:
True but Rangers dont have a future young 2 way talented center in Hartford or close to pro hockey, that can be considered top 6 down the road. That is an issue. Most of their skilled centers are still in juniors. Would be nice to have a young center on the same line with Cuylle not an AHL vet with no NHL future like Brodzinski Bisho etc
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Zibanejad, Trocheck, and Chytil are all locked in for years. Where is there even a path for a young center?

Not against drafting one but there isn't a need for a youngish center close to pro hockey.

Brodzinski is a great player in the AHL and a captain. Not sure why you wouldn't want him playing with prospects as opposed to other guys with limited experience.
 
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