Roster Building Thread VI (2022-23): Offseason edition

[Machinehead]

You don't have a track record.

I'll take a non-track record over Rangers braintrust.

 

[mas0764]

Oh, this is crap.

It's not.

They traded away the guys that didn't pan out - and they didn't end up panning out where they went either.

And?

You need to have enough high end, home grown, often still relatively cheap talent. If the picks you made while sucking didn't pan out, then you just need to suck more and get more picks until you get it right. That's the way to get to the ultimate goal. Cutting off a rebuild short so you can get one magical conference finals run out of it is misguided because it hardly ever results in ultimate success.

The outcome you are accepting is "build a second round playoff team and maybe lightning will strike."

That is longer odds than just rebuilding for longer to create a favorite.

Here is where people say "You want a utopia that doesn't exist." Wrong. In any given year there are 2-3 teams that probably qualify as hands-on favorites. You have to get into that class. It's hard, but there are multiple teams in that class like I said, almost every year. Those teams are the teams that win like 80% of the Cups. You have to get into that class. Then your odds are very good.

That's not an impossible build. It's just one that requires more patience.

As an outsider team, a second-round-hope-lightning-strikes-team, they win like 20% of the Cups and it's divided up among like, the other 8 teams that make the second round consistently. Much worse odds.

Doing more of the same doesn't seem like a winning formula given this, now pretty lengthy, track record.

It's not a lengthy track record.

It was an abbreviated rebuild that we abandoned midstream.

And even if it was a full one, it's outweighed by pretty much all the Cup winners doing it right.

I'm not even saying that's it's the wrong track. I'm saying it guarantees absolutely nothing.

Of course you're not saying it's the wrong track; because you know it's the right track. You are being a contrarian because you don't like hearing how the team messed up and they are doing it wrong.

But they have and they are.

Also I never said it guarantees anything, so we are in agreement there. Teams can do it the right way and still fail. But doing it the right way gives you the best chances.

There's no "one way' to build a Stanley Cup winner.

Vegas has, I think, zero of their first round picks playing on their Stanley Cup winning roster.

There is a right way, but there are exceptions to every rule and you have personally seem me post many times that it is possible this Rangers team get hot at the right time, have Shesterkin carry them, some forward blows up for 3 weeks and dominates the playoffs, etc.

It's just not likely.

And barring a big (and pretty unforseen, at this juncture) turnaround by Laviolette and the new staff, the outcome that we as fans (and management, if they are at all responsible) should be counting on is another reset in 2 seasons or so. Without a Cup to show for it.... again.

 

[Machinehead]

Nobody is saying that the team necessarily has to be built by high picks if the product is good. The 2014 team wasn't built by high picks.

The issue is that the team isn't actually that good. If you're not that good, you have to stop buying and start selling at some point.

This is their last chance. If Laviolette doesn't get different results, blow it up.

 

[Vitto79]

I’m in the Laf, Zib, Kakko line club

Kreider and Zib should only be on the PP together . C with Trotchek

Chytil with Panarin

Not sure if Wheeler who’s a play maker will work with Panarin but kinda have too

It’s a bummer Tarasenko can’t fit the cap . Gotta play Goodrow more at that money then

Othmaan and Cuylee are wild cards

Pitlick or Vesey Sitting isn’t out of the question

 

[mas0764]

Nobody is saying that the team necessarily has to be built by high picks if the product is good. The 2014 team wasn't built by high picks.

But the 2013-2014 team was probably a high-end scorer or two away from being able to put away the Kings in 3 more games that series. [Conversely, I suppose you could argue that if it could have locked down the Kings better it could have protected leads and won, but then same argument applies - they were probably a high end defender or two away from not having Girardi bungle that series away with too many minutes he wasn't equipped for]. Or the 14-15 team that lost Zucc and couldn't recover, same thing. Couldn't score in Games 5 and 7.

It doesn't "have to" be built by high picks, but in a zero-sum team building environment, finding the forward talent you need with your own picks (or picks you acquire) generally seems to be the most feasible. Making the 4-for-1 trades to get a Rick Nash depletes your depth and, at least as we've seen in NY, gives you a lesser return than you were expecting, ie, Rick Nash never broke 70 points for us even (though he might have that first year if it wasn't shortened).

 

[MrAlmost]

While most teams do seem to have many of their high picks playing a prominent role on a Stanley Cup roster, the vast majority of teams do not win it until many years after whatever perceived rebuild they entered. St. Louis could probably be considered to have never actually "rebuilt". The Caps were constantly reworking and looking for a combo for 14 years. The Avs 12. Tampa same thing.

The Pens won soon after a real rebuild in 09, but probably only cause they got the greatest player in a generation. They then reworked and kept trying for the next 8 years to get 2 more.

Tampa won that cup in 2004, which they technically started working for since their first year in the league, 11 years earlier. They then needed to rebuild and wait another 12 years before they got it again.

It takes time and there certainly isn't any one way to do it. Maybe the only thread is a real #1 center, #1 winger and #1 defensemen with depth at forward. A lot of depth. Goalies are literally all over the place as are bottom pair defensemen.

 

[LaffyTaffyNYR]

The Rangers had the most talent they might ever have last year at the TDL and lost in the 1st round.. it’s insane. Yeah the Devils played better but there’s gotta be a bigger reason than that especially because the Rangers rolled over them the first 2 games and in game 6. Coaching? Not enough will?

Then the Devils got steamrolled by Carolina (who we usually beat) without two of their better forwards.

 

[jerseyjinx94]

There’s no question that drafting high in the first round increases your odds of winning a Cup. Look at the teams that win, they all have a couple of high picks (Toews/Kane), (MacKinnon/Makar), (Crosby/Malkin/Fleury), (Kopitar/Doughty) (Stamkos/Hedman). Those guys end up leading the way.

The Rangers did that. Their top picks have not turned into stars. They have not used them to lead the way. They haven’t given them a chance to do so.

 

[Fitzy]

Nobody is saying that the team necessarily has to be built by high picks if the product is good. The 2014 team wasn't built by high picks.

The issue is that the team isn't actually that good. If you're not that good, you have to stop buying and start selling at some point.

This is their last chance. If Laviolette doesn't get different results, blow it up.

I think the cognitive dissonance here is that the 2014 NYR squad was built around depth and balance. The current roster has so much more top end scoring and a lethal power play, but has not been able to find the same success.

As a previous poster noted, if you replaced Nash, McDonagh, and Richards with Zibanejad, Panarin and Fox on that 2014 team, we probably win.

But the bottom 6 and bottom 4 that roster had take ours to the cleaners.

So how do we flesh out our depth? Once again it’s gonna come down to the young kids progressing.

 

[LaffyTaffyNYR]

Laf and Kakko progressing gives you a 3rd line of Kreider Tro/Fil Wheeler.

That’s what we need to happen

 

[Savant]

I’m in the Laf, Zib, Kakko line club

Kreider and Zib should only be on the PP together . C with Trotchek

Chytil with Panarin

Not sure if Wheeler who’s a play maker will work with Panarin but kinda have too

It’s a bummer Tarasenko can’t fit the cap . Gotta play Goodrow more at that money then

Othmaan and Cuylee are wild cards

Pitlick or Vesey Sitting isn’t out of the question

I think it’s absolutely crazy to put Lafreniere AND Kakko with Zibanejad. All that does is bring down Mika.

Kreider Zibanejad Kakko was a very good line last year and think that should be reassembled but I don’t see any hockey reason to put Lafrenière AND Kakko with Zibanejad other then one player being a left wing and one player being a right wing

 

[Vitto79]

I think it’s absolutely crazy to put Lafreniere AND Kakko with Zibanejad. All that does is bring down Mika.

Kreider Zibanejad Kakko was a very good line last year and think that should be reassembled but I don’t see any hockey reason to put Lafrenière AND Kakko with Zibanejad other then one player being a left wing and one player being a right wing

Does it though ? 5x5 play overall sucks

This team wins on PP/PK and their G

Need 3 scoring lines so spread it out

Also the teams MOT winning the cup without a Laf and/or Kakko breakout and Zib is the best C for them

 

[Boris Zubov]

I think it’s absolutely crazy to put Lafreniere AND Kakko with Zibanejad. All that does is bring down Mika.

Kreider Zibanejad Kakko was a very good line last year and think that should be reassembled but I don’t see any hockey reason to put Lafrenière AND Kakko with Zibanejad other then one player being a left wing and one player being a right wing

Mika is our #1C. If playing with those 2 is going to bring him down, we're never winning anything while he's here. He needs to be the guy who makes the guys he plays with better. The kids need to show they can be impact players.

I'd like to see Mika with Kakko & Laf, simply because he & Kreider need to be split up.

 

[Savant]

Mika is our #1C. If playing with those 2 is going to bring him down, we're never winning anything while he's here. He needs to be the guy who makes the guys he plays with better. The kids need to show they can be impact players.

I'd like to see Mika with Kakko & Laf, simply because he & Kreider need to be split up.

I understand what you are saying but we have evidence that 20 93 24 was a good line. Mika is a 1C but he isn’t Superman. I’m not playing him with TWO wingers that are in search of their games. Yes they need to show they are impact players, but they need to prove there is some growth before then are inked into the first line. Bad line composition torpedoes this team more than spreading it out. It’s going to be unbalanced either way but I’m not going to be running experiments on the top line

 

[EdJovanovski]

I think it’s absolutely crazy to put Lafreniere AND Kakko with Zibanejad. All that does is bring down Mika.

Kreider Zibanejad Kakko was a very good line last year and think that should be reassembled but I don’t see any hockey reason to put Lafrenière AND Kakko with Zibanejad other then one player being a left wing and one player being a right wing

On one hand as a big critic of Kakko & Laf I agree they'd bring down Mika, on the other this is their 5th & 4th NHL seasons (that feels weird to say) it's sink or swim for them at this point. If they don't surpass 50pts each (which is actually less than what people thought they'd do in their rookie season) we need to cut our losses. They're at the point where their draft pedigree is close to meaning nothing in a trade.

 

[bhamill]

I understand what you are saying but we have evidence that 20 93 24 was a good line. Mika is a 1C but he isn’t Superman. I’m not playing him with TWO wingers that are in search of their games. Yes they need to show they are impact players, but they need to prove there is some growth before then are inked into the first line. Bad line composition torpedoes this team more than spreading it out. It’s going to be unbalanced either way but I’m not going to be running experiments on the top line

I'd really like to see what Laf-Chytil-Wheeler and Pan/Kreider-Zib-Kakko can do as lines.

 

[Savant]

On one hand as a big critic of Kakko & Laf I agree they'd bring down Mika, on the other this is their 5th & 4th NHL seasons (that feels weird to say) it's sink or swim for them at this point. If they don't surpass 50pts each (which is actually less than what people thought they'd do in their rookie season) we need to cut our losses. They're at the point where their draft pedigree is close to meaning nothing in a trade.

For sure but that doesn’t mean that we staple those guys to Mika. It’s their 4th or 5th year so they shouldn’t be center dependent either.

 

[bhamill]

On one hand as a big critic of Kakko & Laf I agree they'd bring down Mika, on the other this is their 5th & 4th NHL seasons (that feels weird to say) it's sink or swim for them at this point. If they don't surpass 50pts each (which is actually less than what people thought they'd do in their rookie season) we need to cut our losses. They're at the point where their draft pedigree is close to meaning nothing in a trade.

I see what you are saying, but make or break at 22-23 years old is kinda nuts. Basically that's how we got Zibs.

 

[Boris Zubov]

I see what you are saying, but make or break at 22-23 years old is kinda nuts. Basically that's how we got Zibs.

I think it's an important year for Laffy to show he's serious about hockey & the training that goes with it.

 

[bhamill]

I think it's an important year for Laffy to show he's serious about hockey & the training that goes with it.

I agree with that, of course!

 

[Avery16]

I think it’s absolutely crazy to put Lafreniere AND Kakko with Zibanejad. All that does is bring down Mika.

Kreider Zibanejad Kakko was a very good line last year and think that should be reassembled but I don’t see any hockey reason to put Lafrenière AND Kakko with Zibanejad other then one player being a left wing and one player being a right wing

Laf/Zib/Kak saw some shifts last season and I thought they looked good. I think it could boost the kids and I think Zib could benefit too. We don’t have great scoring depth. It should be explored.

We can’t keep trotting out the kid line. It’s too predictable and I think it’s stalling Chytil’s development.

 

[UnparalledPark]

NHL Lines Advanced Stats

The Best Offensive and Defensive Lines in the NHL

moneypuck.com

Filter for regular season/playoffs, season of choice and then arrange the columns by TOI. You can do it at Natural Stat Trick too but I don't trust their analytics.

Also the TDL thing isn't really an excuse. He took to Copp immediately (who to this day, is the BEST fit he's had here) and was also immediately paired with players he has played with in the past after the TDL this season (Tarasenko and Kane, the latter of whom he had great chemistry with at one point at this level but the duo was toxic AF because neither of them are as good as they were when they played together in Chicago.)

Barbashev was a TDL pick up and ended up fitting in tremendously with his line mates.

I'll keep on going back to what @Synergy27 posted, he's underperformed even relative to whom ever line mates have been attached to him. Even if he was having a tough time adjusting to who ever he's been paired with after a deadline pick up, hes performed worse than said player (And his center... and every other player on the team.)

Thank you sir.

 

[mas0764]

Does it though ? 5x5 play overall sucks

This team wins on PP/PK and their G

Need 3 scoring lines so spread it out

Also the teams MOT winning the cup without a Laf and/or Kakko breakout and Zib is the best C for them

Also, Lafreniere-Chytil-Kakko was 51% xGF and Kreider-Zibanejad-Kakko was 58% xGF.

Kreider-Trocheck-Vesey was 49%.

Who is boosting who? I don't think it's clear enough to say that you just can't break up Kreider and Zibanejad.

Especially when you factor in that Kreider will get his anywhere, but Lafreniere and Kakko need to finally get the top 6 exposure.

 

[PuckLuck3043]

Why is it ok to want the best out of Rangers players, but not Rangers management?

Of course it's ok. Who said it wasn't? It's perfectly acceptable to question some poor moves. GM's make mistakes though and it's not an easy job, especially trying to navigate a flat cap and put a quality team on ice. There are some here who live to nitpick every single move and who think they are smarter than everybody else. This team just came off 110 and 107 point seasons and you would think they are bottom feeders from reading this board. This board has been brutal this off season. It's never going to be perfect and failures will happen. Everything is easy though with the laptop in hand and lounging in the La-Z-Boy recliner.

 

[Gardner McKay]

Oh, this is crap. They traded away the guys that didn't pan out - and they didn't end up panning out where they went either.

Doing more of the same doesn't seem like a winning formula given this, now pretty lengthy, track record.

If I told you, in a vacuum, in 2017 that we'd have 8 1st round picks in 5 years, 1OA, 2OA, 7OA, 9OA 16OA, 19OA, 22OA, 28OA, a Vezina winner that's not one of those picks, a Norris trophy winner and finalist that wasn't one of those picks, the LW that's scored the most points in the NHL since being a Ranger that's not one of those picks, and a top 10ish center you'd have been over the moon and talking about guaranteed Cups.

The above is YOUR formula - tons of picks, picking up great players with later picks and trades, and probably the best UFA signing in Rangers history.

I'm not even saying that's it's the wrong track. I'm saying it guarantees absolutely nothing. There's no "one way' to build a Stanley Cup winner.

Vegas has, I think, zero of their first round picks playing on their Stanley Cup winning roster.

Bingo. I couldn't have said this any better if I tried.