Roster Building Thread VI (2022-23): Offseason edition

[Synergy27]

Saying you can win a cup without a true #1 goalie is the same as saying you can win without a #1 defenseman. I’m sure it’s been done, but I’m not trading Adam Fox because we don’t need him. I think people have forgotten how bad it can be watching poor goalie play. Wait until you’re paying a guy like Campbell or Murray $5 million to suck.

You are missing the point entirely.

The difference between Adam Fox and random $4.5M defenseman is ENORMOUS.

The difference between $9M goalie and random $4.5M goalie is very small, and in any given year/playoffs the $4.5M guy may actually perform BETTER than the goalie.

No one questions the skill of Igor. No one questions the assessment that he’s top 3 in the world. The problem is that having 3rd best keeper in the world doesn’t really make that much of a difference than having the 20th best guy.

It took everything this team had to beat Louis Domingue and Raanta in the playoffs two years ago. We got dummied by some rando named after an anime cartoon this year.

 

[haohmaru]

Paying your goalie a bunch of money makes it much harder to do the second thing.

Hasek, Quick, Vasilevksiy, Roy, Broduer, Fluery, etc... all somehow managed to be elite AND have good teams in front of them. That should be the goal.

 

[RangersFan1994]

Rangers’ Igor Shesterkin, Islanders’ Ilya Sorokin push car together in offseason training

Ilya Sorokin and Igor Shesterkin may play on opposing sides of a fierce rivalry, but that hasn’t stopped the goaltenders from training together.

nypost.com

 

[Raspewtin]

Hasek, Quick, Vasilevksiy, Roy, Broduer, Fluery, etc... all somehow managed to be elite AND have good teams in front of them. That should be the goal.

Vasilevskiy is the only elite goaltender to win the cup since Tim Thomas (that includes Quick).

Roy, Brodeur, and Hasek are a long gone era.

 

[bhamill]

I'll put one of you guys in goal before I offer Shesterkin his next contract.

It's not something I even have to think about. I would let him play it out, just cold ass walk away, and sleep like a baby about it.

Lose him for nothing? Wouldn’t we be better off trading him if we are going to just walk away?

 

[kovazub94]

We don't need to agree, but you're going out of your way to stick words in my mouth with the bolded. When did I say anything close to that?

Anyone who watched Vegas' entire run isn't coming away with the conclusion that Aidan Hill was the guy who put them over the top. They were doing just fine with Brossoit until he got hurt. Regardless their combined cap hit was less than $4M which proves the point you don't need to pay a goalie $9M to win it all.

Vasilevsky is an outlier, a guy actually is an elite goalie who was absolutely a difference maker. However his team literally had to cheat the cap in order for them to win it all.

Bob was great & unfortunately that 10 day break completely killed his momentum. Would've been interesting to see if he could've stolen the Finals, but it's just more proof that I want a strong roster & a hot goalie more than I want an average roster with an elite goalie dragging them around.

How am I putting words in your mouth? Your premise is that any average goalie should / could suffice to bring Cup home (in the context of whether Shesterkin should be kept / resigned for market value or close once his current deal runs out).

 

[bernmeister]

I mean, this all sounds like it makes sense but having a great goalie and a good team don't have to be mutually exclusive things.

And, let's see, Igor is traded at a deadline, hits UFA, and signs with the Penguins or whoever else in the Metro. Do you want to go through him EVERY YEAR for the next 8 years? That's a secondary risk you're taking.

Trade w/Jones to LAK
for
Byfield, Clarke, late LA 2024 1st, Talbot

LA is now 3/4 mil below cap
Shesty + ZJ = 5.6+ + .81+ = just over 6.4+ ish
Talb = 1 By + Clarke elcs .89+ + .86+ = 1.75+

so 6.4+ - 1.75+ = ballpark 4.7 short term cap dump we have to add from them

1. makes LA fave in conf
2. helps Rs w/foundational quality pieces ready/close to ready
3. forces ny to develop youth [Garand]
4. bite back in the ass factor is minimal b'c you shipped Shesty out of conf

Outside chance in 2 yrs he reups here w/a better team


meanwhile tell Talb starter gig is his until Garand takes it away

 

[Profet]

Hasek, Quick, Vasilevksiy, Roy, Broduer, Fluery, etc... all somehow managed to be elite AND have good teams in front of them. That should be the goal.

Hasek: No salary cap
Roy: No salary cap
Broduer: No salary cap

So that leaves:
Quick - Cap hit was 5.8m (Lundqvist was making 8.5m/year at the time)
Vasilevsky - Cap hit is 9.5m (But we've all seen that this only works when you actively circumvent the cap. If that's your gameplan, at least acknowledge it)
Fluery - 5-5.75m (very team friendly)


You're not proving your point, you're proving that paying goaltenders elite money doesn't work.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Hasek, Quick, Vasilevksiy, Roy, Broduer, Fluery, etc... all somehow managed to be elite AND have good teams in front of them. That should be the goal.

The bolded played the bulk of their careers (or their entire careers) in a league where there was no Cap (and in Fatso's case, won his 3 cups in a league where there wasn't one.)

MAF is not elite.

I'd hesitate to call Quick elite but I'll run with it. He made 1.8 mill when the Kings won their first cup. His big contract had just kicked in when they won the 2nd one. That contract ate up a lower percentage of the cap than the one Sorokin just signed. This contract by in large ended up yielding a pretty poor ROI all together (good or pretty good for half of it, bad for the 2nd half, elite for none. Those latter years are the issue I'd have with a long term contract for Igor.)

Vasy and like Quick he won his 2nd cup in the first year of his big extension. Time will tell how the rest of the contract plays out. He's got a better chance at having a successful contract since he was still in his mid 20's when that deal kicked in. Sorokin will be 28 when his deal kicks in, Quick was 28 when his last contract started.

Igor will be 29 when hes a UFA. I don't think I need to tell you how these long contracts for goalies in their late 20's (or later) play out.

Even Hank, who was the epitome of consistency only returned 2 good years on his last contract (out of 6, bout out of the 7th.) After that it was a mixed bag of pretty good to pretty bad.

 

[bhamill]

I think Tim got 15 minutes and KK got 14 minutes as rookies.

Tim got a minute and a half more a game, 15:45 to 14:15 than Kakko, as rookies. That’s about 11% more ice time. And it was pretty much all with Tkchuck on the first line. Kakko still doesn’t get as much ice time as Stutzle was given (did not earn) as a rookie. They were not given the same leash, responsibility or opportunity. Now the teams were in totally different modes, but the fact remains.

 

[duhmetreE]

We need at least 3 forwards leading the team offensively in the playoffs, in all situations. We just have not had that. We barely have one at any given time. Even with Mika last playoffs, if you argue it was powerplay fueled and he was getting caved in 5v5 ( as was the whole team ) We need more than just one forward. Our offense has sucked for so long.... I just automatically expect to get blanked in the Playoffs...

Vegas had 3 lines producing. Colorado top6 was producing. Tampa's top 6 was producing. ALL their top paid guys were producing.

It's a requirement... Panarin and Zibs MUST PRODUCE in the Playoffs. It's not an option if we want to win. Another forwards needs to step up on top of that, whether it's Kreider, Trocheck or one of the kids.

Is it a coaching issue? This is last call. No more excuses f they don't perform over the next 2-3 years.... there will be another 'sell off/re-tooling'....

Just in time for McDavid.

 

[bhamill]

In both cases, they just haven't performed well enough to get the minutes people want.

The argument is top picks are us usually developed by GIVING them time, linemates and responsibility that they have not earned. So yeah, you can argue they didn’t earn it, but then neither did Stutzle, Hughes, etc. We can’t have it both ways. We either make the sacrifice up front and and suffer through the kids growing pains in top roles, or we DON’T give them all of that and then whine and wonder why our kids don’t develop like other top picks... Honestly it’s kind of obvious.

 

[MrAlmost]

Yeah I think you should trade Igor either before next season or at the deadline. Can't just let him walk of course, but I don't think we should give an 8 year 9 million dollar contract to a 29 year old goalie.

 

[Fitzy]

We can argue all we want about whether it's a good idea and that's fine, but there is like a 99% probability that he is going to re-sign here long term so in the end it's all academic.

 

[Barnaby]

You are missing the point entirely.

The difference between Adam Fox and random $4.5M defenseman is ENORMOUS.

The difference between $9M goalie and random $4.5M goalie is very small, and in any given year/playoffs the $4.5M guy may actually perform BETTER than the goalie.

No one questions the skill of Igor. No one questions the assessment that he’s top 3 in the world. The problem is that having 3rd best keeper in the world doesn’t really make that much of a difference than having the 20th best guy.

It took everything this team had to beat Louis Domingue and Raanta in the playoffs two years ago. We got dummied by some rando named after an anime cartoon this year.

You can also point to teams like Edmonton and Toronto who’ve had absolute melt downs in goal and have been searching for a starter for years. Most of their fans are dying to go after Hellybuck.

 

[Barnaby]

Tim got a minute and a half more a game, 15:45 to 14:15 than Kakko, as rookies. That’s about 11% more ice time. And it was pretty much all with Tkchuck on the first line. Kakko still doesn’t get as much ice time as Stutzle was given (did not earn) as a rookie. They were not given the same leash, responsibility or opportunity. Now the teams were in totally different modes, but the fact remains.

Are we really holding up the Sens as the model for success? Do we really think those two extra shifts over the course of a game matter that much?

Weaker line mates also lead to weaker match ups. Everyone keeps calling all 3 of them top 6 forwards so idk where the problem is.

 

[mas0764]

Hasek, Quick, Vasilevksiy, Roy, Broduer, Fluery, etc... all somehow managed to be elite AND have good teams in front of them. That should be the goal.

To be fair some of these guys were a little before the cap era.

 

[UnSandvich]

Are we really holding up the Sens as the model for success? Do we really think those two extra shifts over the course of a game matter that much?

Weaker line mates also lead to weaker match ups. Everyone keeps calling all 3 of them top 6 forwards so idk where the problem is.

But it didn’t. Gallant didn’t line match at all

 

[mas0764]

We need at least 3 forwards leading the team offensively in the playoffs, in all situations. We just have not had that. We barely have one at any given time. Even with Mika last playoffs, if you argue it was powerplay fueled and he was getting caved in 5v5 ( as was the whole team ) We need more than just one forward. Our offense has sucked for so long.... I just automatically expect to get blanked in the Playoffs...

Vegas had 3 lines producing. Colorado top6 was producing. Tampa's top 6 was producing. ALL their top paid guys were producing.

It's a requirement... Panarin and Zibs MUST PRODUCE in the Playoffs. It's not an option if we want to win. Another forwards needs to step up on top of that, whether it's Kreider, Trocheck or one of the kids.

Is it a coaching issue? This is last call. No more excuses f they don't perform over the next 2-3 years.... there will be another 'sell off/re-tooling'....

Just in time for McDavid.

This is why you should stay at the top of the draft until you know you have multiple young superstar forwards in spades.

 

[NickyFotiu]

Tim got a minute and a half more a game, 15:45 to 14:15 than Kakko, as rookies. That’s about 11% more ice time. And it was pretty much all with Tkchuck on the first line. Kakko still doesn’t get as much ice time as Stutzle was given (did not earn) as a rookie. They were not given the same leash, responsibility or opportunity. Now the teams were in totally different modes, but the fact remains.

I understand your point. I do not think 90 seconds more is that significant compared to the first 14 minutes each guy played. Nobody wants Laf and KK to play great more than I do but its okay for me to admit Tim has played better so far. 1 scout out of many had Tim over Laf. I would probably see if we can get that scout. Its hard to go against overwhelming consensus. Tims skating and stickhandling have been very good for a young guy. My hope is that Laf and KK get to a point soon where we can say all 3 are comparable.

 

[Hire Sather]

You are missing the point entirely.

The difference between Adam Fox and random $4.5M defenseman is ENORMOUS.

The difference between $9M goalie and random $4.5M goalie is very small, and in any given year/playoffs the $4.5M guy may actually perform BETTER than the goalie.

No one questions the skill of Igor. No one questions the assessment that he’s top 3 in the world. The problem is that having 3rd best keeper in the world doesn’t really make that much of a difference than having the 20th best guy.

It took everything this team had to beat Louis Domingue and Raanta in the playoffs two years ago. We got dummied by some rando named after an anime cartoon this year.

An argument can be made we've had the better goalie in every playoff series we've played since 2006.

It's just not worth spending that much cap on the goalie

 

[NickyFotiu]

An argument can be made we've had the better goalie in every playoff series we've played since 2006.

It's just not worth spending that much cap on the goalie

How much cap do you feel is worth it for a goalie and can you name a goalie you like for our team that was a UFA in the last few years that fits that amount?

 

[UAGoalieGuy]

For those that though Zadina wouldn't sign a contract that could be fully buried in the AHL.

 

[haohmaru]

Hasek: No salary cap
Roy: No salary cap
Broduer: No salary cap

So that leaves:
Quick - Cap hit was 5.8m (Lundqvist was making 8.5m/year at the time)
Vasilevsky - Cap hit is 9.5m (But we've all seen that this only works when you actively circumvent the cap. If that's your gameplan, at least acknowledge it)
Fluery - 5-5.75m (very team friendly)


You're not proving your point, you're proving that paying goaltenders elite money doesn't work.

Multiple cups for all of those players who are elite goaltenders. My point was made: elite goaltending does (gasp), in fact, win Cups.

 

[bernmeister]

We can argue all we want about whether it's a good idea and that's fine, but there is like a 99% probability that he is going to re-sign here long term so in the end it's all academic.

Wouldn't jump to that conclusion and even if you are right -- and you may be -- the point is we owe it to ourselves and the team to exhaust the open discussion of the topic, so we know which course of action is more correct, and to what degree, and why.

Shesty
-- has value as vez quality if kept
-- has value if that level asset is traded, depending on currency returned
-- the above are positives; depending on whether or not a G is returned, there is a separate ? about replacing Shesty in goal [ultimately Garand]

-- if we think Garand performs high enuf, even if less than Shesty, = makes argument to deal

-- howev, waiting for Garand to be immediately ready as an excuse to delay a deal which = kills a given opportunity to max return --- is likely to be foolish.

Obv neither Garand nor anyone else should be thrown to the wolves, but if return is high enuf -- as in my prop deal to LAK -- you make that deal, accept quality assets from the sell high, and juggle w/stopgap Gs until Garand is ready.