Roster Building Thread VI (2022-23): Offseason edition

[LaffyTaffy13]

Panarin has 20 points in 30 playoff games as a Ranger.

Over the past two playoffs, he has 8 points in 27 games at 5v5.

Over the past two playoffs, his xGF% in all situations (which means including the PP where he is still pretty good) is 48.5% (i.e., net negative). His HDCF% is at 45.5%.

At 5v5 those numbers drop to an astonishing 38.3% and 35.7% respectively.

At 5v5 in the playoffs, 65% of the high danger chances occur for the other team when Panarin is in the ice. That’s an insane number.

Connor McDavid’s numbers are 57.8 and 58.9%.

I admit that this next statement is somewhat of a stretch, but only somewhat.

At 5v5, Connor McDavid’s team has 58.9% of the high danger chances when he is on the ice (again playoff stats). The point of hockey is to score goals, and this is usually done by creating high danger chances.

When Panarin is on the ice, the other team, which has never had a player of McDavid’s caliber on it given Rangers opponents in the past two playoffs, produces high danger chances at a significantly higher rate than McDavid himself does (65% vs. 58%). Again, a stretch here, but you can argue that having Panarin on the ice at 5v5, turning the puck over the way he does, is essentially spotting the opponent a player/line that it better than McDavid at creating HDCF.

I could not care less that Bread is a PPG player in the regular season. He actively hurts the team in the playoffs and I don’t see how or why that changes moving forward.

You might want to think on which take is actually insane.

If youre going to compare any players to mcdavid, that my friend is the truly insane take. Make a case that hes not the best ufa signing in franchise history

 

[RangersFan1994]

Trouba gave about 1500 of those 1,886 hits lol

 

[Synergy27]

If youre going to compare any players to mcdavid, that my friend is the truly insane take. Make a case that hes not the best ufa signing in franchise history

First things first, I didn’t compare Panarin to McDavid. Give it another read.

But secondly, comparing Panarin to McDavid shouldn’t even be an issue. He is paid to be that level of player. He had the third highest cap hit in the league.

Paying Panarin to do what he does, particularly in the playoffs, is straight up bad value.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Run the team back, more opportunities and ice for the kids..add Cullye, Berard and Lockwood up front...Robertson and Jones down back, add at the deadline, win playoffs.

 

[RangersFan1994]

Run the team back, more opportunities and ice for the kids..add Cullye, Berard and Lockwood up front...Robertson and Jones down back, add at the deadline, win playoffs.

Yea because Berard really showed he is ready for pro hockey. Lets rush him. Makes no sense. I can see Othmann not needing time in AHL, only if he has a really great camp in September. I bet Cuylle and Othmann are the 2 forward prospects that have the best chance to make the team

 

[Mandar]

Trouba gave about 1500 of those 1,886 hits lol

View attachment 714759

Top 8 didn’t make the playoffs. Probably better to have the puck than chase it.

Bogus stat that means nothing.

 

[duhmetreE]

Panarin has 20 points in 30 playoff games as a Ranger.

Over the past two playoffs, he has 8 points in 27 games at 5v5.

Over the past two playoffs, his xGF% in all situations (which means including the PP where he is still pretty good) is 48.5% (i.e., net negative). His HDCF% is at 45.5%.

At 5v5 those numbers drop to an astonishing 38.3% and 35.7% respectively.

At 5v5 in the playoffs, 65% of the high danger chances occur for the other team when Panarin is in the ice. That’s an insane number.

Connor McDavid’s numbers are 57.8 and 58.9%.

I admit that this next statement is somewhat of a stretch, but only somewhat.

At 5v5, Connor McDavid’s team has 58.9% of the high danger chances when he is on the ice (again playoff stats). The point of hockey is to score goals, and this is usually done by creating high danger chances.

When Panarin is on the ice, the other team, which has never had a player of McDavid’s caliber on it given Rangers opponents in the past two playoffs, produces high danger chances at a significantly higher rate than McDavid himself does (65% vs. 58%). Again, a stretch here, but you can argue that having Panarin on the ice at 5v5, turning the puck over the way he does, is essentially spotting the opponent a player/line that is better than McDavid at creating HDCF.

I could not care less that Bread is a PPG player in the regular season. He actively hurts the team in the playoffs and I don’t see how or why that changes moving forward.

You might want to think on which take is actually insane.

The opposing team doesn’t produce like McDavid it’s just that Panarin doesn’t do shit, so the percentages are terrible.

 

[Leonardo87]

Top 8 didn’t make the playoffs. Probably better to have the puck than chase it.

Bogus stat that means nothing.

I’ve always wondered it the more hits, means your team doesn’t have the puck.

 

[duhmetreE]

Top 8 didn’t make the playoffs. Probably better to have the puck than chase it.

Bogus stat that means nothing.

And how they calculate hits is something I’d never understand. "official scoring"

They should separate the category. Hits on forecheck would be a nice one to look at

 

[Synergy27]

The opposing team doesn’t produce like McDavid it’s just that Panarin doesn’t do shit, so the percentages are terrible.

The opposing team doesn’t produce like McDavid for two reasons:

1. They are not McDavid
2. Shesterkin is amazing

Regardless, bleeding high danger chances at that rate is just a terrible way of doing business.

 

[Boris Zubov]

His playoffs 2022 were great but still had 16 points in 20 games and quite literally won a series in OT of a game 7 haha.

Hes not gonna keep getting better but the fact remains, hes a top 20 player in the game, hasnt had a season less than ppg with us and is the best ufa signing in franchise history. Asinine takes on panarin here

You're looking at stats & determining his playoffs were "great". Did you watch the games? Because if you did, you'd recall a player who wasn't involved 5v5, a player who was constantly stymied at the blue line & refused to take the puck into traffic. A player who feasted on the power play, but was turning the puck over with one blind backhand pass after another. Hell, even he said he was extremely disappointed with the way he played during the exit interviews with the media.

 

[LaffyTaffy13]

First things first, I didn’t compare Panarin to McDavid. Give it another read.

But secondly, comparing Panarin to McDavid shouldn’t even be an issue. He is paid to be that level of player. He had the third highest cap hit in the league.

Paying Panarin to do what he does, particularly in the playoffs, is straight up bad value.

What should his cap hit be? (Dont be a clown and compare him to rfa’s like hughes who signed when they were 20 year olds)

You're looking at stats & determining his playoffs were "great". Did you watch the games? Because if you did, you'd recall a player who wasn't involved 5v5, a player who was constantly stymied at the blue line & refused to take the puck into traffic. A player who feasted on the power play, but was turning the puck over with one blind backhand pass after another. Hell, even he said he was extremely disappointed with the way he played during the exit interviews with the media.

Meant to say “werent” great. Did that while biking

 

[Synergy27]

What should his cap hit be? (Dont be a clown and compare him to rfa’s like hughes who signed when they were 20 year olds)


Meant to say “werent” great. Did that while biking

Continue to not address the points I’m making.

 

[UnSandvich]

And how they calculate hits is something I’d never understand. "official scoring"

They should separate the category. Hits on forecheck would be a nice one to look at

Tbh it'd be a better job for one of those analytics guys that watch every game for their stuff. Alternatively, when the NHL has its player & puch tracking system nailed down and publicly available. Ideally, a split into 3 categories:

Possession-Neutral Hits- The Tanner Glass special. Hits that are for the sole purpose of hitting
Possession-Changing Hits- Hits that lead to the hitting team taking possession of the puck.
Possession-Driving Hits- Hits that lead to the hitting team taking possession of the puck, and creating a scoring chance within X seconds. (This could technically be a sub-category of "Possession-Changing" Hits.)

The ideal end-goal is to figure out which players & teams are best able to use their physicality to create possession-positive outcomes, vs. guys like Glass who're hitting guys after the puck is gone, b/c they're not capable of anything more effective.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Yea because Berard really showed he is ready for pro hockey. Lets rush him. Makes no sense. I can see Othmann not needing time in AHL, only if he has a really great camp in September. I bet Cuylle and Othmann are the 2 forward prospects that have the best chance to make the team

Some players need better players to play with. Imo Berard would fit into that category, Hartford overachieved a bit this year, the forward group is pretty vanilla and Berard only played a handful of games there.

 

[RangersFan1994]

Some players need better players to play with. Imo Berard would fit into that category, Hartford overachieved a bit this year, the forward group is pretty vanilla.

I agree but at least a young kid like Cuylle had a good rookie 1st pro season. Hopefully his last pro season as he makes Rangers out of camp. Didnt look out of place when he played.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

I agree but at least a young kid like Cuylle had a good rookie 1st pro season. Hopefully his last pro season as he makes Rangers out of camp. Didnt look out of place when he played.

I think they're probably hoping Cullye takes a spot. I guess I'm more worried about rushing Othmann than i am Berard, Berard is a pretty straight forward player, I personally would like to see Othmann with Hartford until atleast Christmas, but thats just me.

 

[RangersFan1994]

I think they're probably hoping Cullye takes a spot. I guess I'm more worried about rushing Othmann than i am Berard, Berard is a pretty straight forward player, I personally would like to see Othmann with Hartford until atleast Christmas, but thats just me.

Stepan didnt play any time in Hartford as a rookie came out of college.. If Othmann is ready or top 9 spot, he will make the team. personally Cuylle should get more than 4th line mins. He gets ice time in the AHL, why not give him 3rd line ice time with more skilled players and see what happens. I think he can be a Ryan Clowe skilled type. Not a Tanner Glass Reaves one dimensional tough guy.

 

[RangersFan1994]

I would not mind Ross Colton. He is cheap. They can afford him I would think. RFA made 1.125, I can see him making no more than 2 in my opinion.

 

[IchabodCrane]

The panarin takes here are insane haha. In his four seasons with nyr, he been well above a ppg player for us. Hes our best ufa signing of all time.

Can he be frustrating at times? Sure. But the insanity has to stop

This is exactly the loser take that I hate amongst our fan base- a guy who has bo idea what it takes to win. And doesn’t care obviously.

 

[Vitto79]

When do they confirm next years cap ?

 

[duhmetreE]

Tbh it'd be a better job for one of those analytics guys that watch every game for their stuff. Alternatively, when the NHL has its player & puch tracking system nailed down and publicly available. Ideally, a split into 3 categories:

Possession-Neutral Hits- The Tanner Glass special. Hits that are for the sole purpose of hitting
Possession-Changing Hits- Hits that lead to the hitting team taking possession of the puck.
Possession-Driving Hits- Hits that lead to the hitting team taking possession of the puck, and creating a scoring chance within X seconds. (This could technically be a sub-category of "Possession-Changing" Hits.)

The ideal end-goal is to figure out which players & teams are best able to use their physicality to create possession-positive outcomes, vs. guys like Glass who're hitting guys after the puck is gone, b/c they're not capable of anything more effective.

I'd think it will come eventually if some 'paywalled' analytics dont already have it.

A good forechecker is worth his weight in gold. Someone that can get in lay a hit and get the puck,

Someone like prime Kreider tilted the ice dramatically. The production numbers weren't great but he dominated when he was on the ice. Besides xG there should be a way to delineate what he's doing

When do they confirm next years cap ?

I was told they wont announce it so as it wont take away from the Cup.

 

[duhmetreE]

I would not mind Ross Colton. He is cheap. They can afford him I would think. RFA made 1.125, I can see him making no more than 2 in my opinion.

100% would take Ross Colton. Perfect 3rd liner with potential to be more.

Depends on cost obviously, where 'just signing' Engvall may be a better play. Stylistically they're different but both would bolster the middle6. IMO Engvall speed and forecheck is what we need.

 

[NYR Viper]

100% would take Ross Colton. Perfect 3rd liner with potential to be more.

Depends on cost obviously, where 'just signing' Engvall may be a better play. Stylistically they're different but both would bolster the middle6. IMO Engvall speed and forecheck is what we need.

Engvall would be a good add for sure for these exact reasons. I'm leaning towards Acciari for similar reasons if his ask is reasonable as well. Speed and forecheck.

The team needs puck retrievers

 

[UnparalledPark]

Engvall would be a good add for sure for these exact reasons. I'm leaning towards Acciari for similar reasons if his ask is reasonable as well. Speed and forecheck.

The team needs puck retrievers

Acciari has averaged 52 games a year the 5 years prior to this season. His type of game is rough on the body and he is 31. Gotta get them when they are young.