Roster Building Thread V (2022-23): Cheese and WINE

[MrAlmost]

consider Fox has 300 more minutes at ES than Schneider and also faces the best players in the world every night.

The best players in the league throw far fewer hits.

The Rangers are playing the best pair in the world 25 minutes a game. That's why they're good. I'm worried about the other 35 minutes.

That is crazy. Fox played 300 more minutes.

It might feel different but it doesn't take much to give the puck away. We focus so much on magnitude when it comes to hitting. It takes a love tap to disrupt a zone exit. That's what matters.

I think it takes more that 1 pair playing 25 minutes a game to make a team good. If that were the case, teams like the Sabres and Senators would have been much better. I think you are selling our other 4 D pretty short.

Bolded is fair.

Well we were supposed to be patient with Chytil, Kakko, Laf, etc.. I am going to give Schneider the same benefit, especially at 21.

 

[IDvsEGO]

The best players in the league throw far fewer hits.


I think it takes more that 1 pair playing 25 minutes a game to make a team good. If that were the case, teams like the Sabres and Senators would have been much better. I think you are selling our other 4 D pretty short.

Bolded is fair.

Well we were supposed to be patient with Chytil, Kakko, Laf, etc.. I am going to give Schneider the same benefit, especially at 21.

Exactly. This is schneider's second NHL season. We need to be patient with him.

 

[Machinehead]

I think it takes more that 1 pair playing 25 minutes a game to make a team good

Yes. An elite goaltender, a deep forward group, and top 5 center depth in the league also helps.

The bottom 4 on D is why we're not better than we are.

A first round exit is probably about right for this team. The underlying numbers say it and the standings say it. "But the team so good" is not an excuse for individual players. We're not that good that everyone on the team is good.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

Except we know schneider isnt slow. Im not really sure where that take comes from. Schneider is a good strong skater. He's faster than fox, he's not quite as fast as miller, but he's not slow in any fashion.

First step, or agility to avoid hit i’m talking about, not his actual north to south speed.

 

[haohmaru]

Yes. An elite goaltender, a deep forward group, and top 5 center depth in the league also helps.

The bottom 4 on D is why we're not better than we are.

A first round exit is probably about right for this team. The underlying numbers say it and the standings say it. "But the team so good" is not an excuse for individual players. We're not that good that everyone on the team is good.

Meh. What are the underlying numbers and standings since Das Helmet?

This, at absolute worst, is a 50/50 series.

 

[IDvsEGO]

Yes. An elite goaltender, a deep forward group, and top 5 center depth in the league also helps.

The bottom 4 on D is why we're not better than we are.

A first round exit is probably about right for this team. The underlying numbers say it and the standings say it. "But the team so good" is not an excuse for individual players. We're not that good that everyone on the team is good.

Igor hasn't been elite until feb this year.
Our top 4 since January has been very good.

If you look at our numbers after jan 1. We are a very deep and very good team.

If you look at our our numbers pre jan 1 we're bad.

Trouba was clearly hurt early in the season, no one was questioning it.
Our 2nd pairing since jan 1 has some great underlying numbers but you won't look at them because we were terrible pre jan 1 so it fits your narrative better.

 

[haohmaru]

Igor hasn't been elite until feb this year.
Our top 4 since January has been very good.

If you look at our numbers after jan 1. We are a very deep and very good team.

If you look at our our numbers pre jan 1 we're bad.

Trouba was clearly hurt early in the season, no one was questioning it.
Our 2nd pairing since jan 1 has some great underlying numbers but you won't look at them because we were terrible pre jan 1 so it fits your narrative better.

In less than two weeks we'll know whether the dubious doubters were right or those of us who think this actually is a good team were. Time will tell.

 

[Machinehead]

Meh. What are the underlying numbers and standings since Das Helmet?

This, at absolute worst, is a 50/50 series.

In terms of the underlying numbers, probably about the same?

The Rangers are probably the 10th-12th best team, but they could go on a run if they get hot, like anybody else. If you think that's an affront to God or something, you need to watch more teams.

I don't know where this notion came from that we're in the absolute cream of the crop in this league.

We're a good team and we're up against a better team tonight.

Igor hasn't been elite until feb this year.
Our top 4 since January has been very good.

If you look at our numbers after jan 1. We are a very deep and very good team.

If you look at our our numbers pre jan 1 we're bad.

Trouba was clearly hurt early in the season, no one was questioning it.
Our 2nd pairing since jan 1 has some great underlying numbers but you won't look at them because we were terrible pre jan 1 so it fits your narrative better.

Here are their splits before and after January first:

Before

Trouba - 44.19% GF, 48.7% xGF
Miller - 44.77% GF, 49.93% xGF

After

Trouba - 52.85% GF, 48.32% xGF
Miller - 54.73% GF, 48.38% xGF

Looks like the same exact play with better goaltending in the second half, which nobody will dispute.

The goal differential is decent but the "against" number is high and it's nothing to write home about against the elite competition in the playoffs.

For comparison, Fox's goal shares are 57.99% in the second half, and 62.22% in the first half despite the shitty goaltending. High 50's, low 60's gives me the confidence that we're beating Cup-caliber teams, not break-even hockey.

We're facing top 5-7 teams almost exclusively from here on out. Nobody is saying the Rangers suck but solid isn't good enough this time of year.

 

[Machinehead]

In less than two weeks we'll know whether the dubious doubters were right or those of us who think this actually is a good team were. Time will tell.

This is a good team.

8 teams out of 32 make it to the second round.

Good teams don't compete for a Cup. Outstanding (or sometimes obnoxiously lucky) teams compete for a Cup.

 

[MrAlmost]

Yes. An elite goaltender, a deep forward group, and top 5 center depth in the league also helps.

The bottom 4 on D is why we're not better than we are.

A first round exit is probably about right for this team. The underlying numbers say it and the standings say it. "But the team so good" is not an excuse for individual players. We're not that good that everyone on the team is good.

Elite goaltending last year. This year was just good. Like a regular playoff team level good.

And while I actually do think the Devils will win this series, its not cause our D are bad or that the "underlying numbers" say it. Again, I don't think I know what that means. The underlying numbers as a team, or individual players performances? Like our goals for, or our specific lines goals for as they match up to the Devils lines goal for? I just think the Devils and Canes play a system the Rangers don't adjust too.

Also, that's not on the Coach, it's on the personnel for not realizing that to beat aggressive forechecks you need to drop the ego and put the puck behind them. The Coach has pretty clearly tried telling them multiple times, but like the last Coach, they know better.

Miller and Trouba have been really good since January. And that makes sense when you consider the early Trouba injury.

Also, I am not so sure about the depth either. The team wasn't deep until February when we made the first trade for Tank and Mikkola. Some were arguing that we weren't deep until deadline day since we still had Brod, Lesh, etc. in the starting lineup.

 

[haohmaru]

In terms of the underlying numbers, probably about the same?

The Rangers are probably the 10th-12th best team, but they could go on a run if they get hot, like anybody else. If you think that's an affront to God or something, you need to watch more teams.

I don't know where this notion came from that we're in the absolute cream of the crop in this league.

The Rangers were 12-10-5 and then came the helmet toss.

The Rangers played at at 35-12-8 clip since that point (78 points)

Devils 21-5-1 through game 27

31-17-7 since that point (69 points)

The Rangers, until the last throwaway game, were 2nd in the league in regulation losses.

Anyone saying that the Devils are the "better team" simply doesn't jive with the facts since the Rangers decided that they actually should start playing hockey and winning some games.

The Devils and Rangers are probably close to even, though I give the Rangers an enormous advantage in net and a slight advantage skaters 1-18.

Good teams don't compete for a Cup. Outstanding (or sometimes obnoxiously lucky) teams compete for a Cup.

Outstanding teams and Presidents trophy winners get routinely bounced in the 1st and 2nd round. All it takes is a hot streak, a bad bounce, a goalie. The Rangers are in that conversation whether you want to believe that or not.

 

[Machinehead]

Outstanding teams and Presidents trophy winners get routinely bounced in the 1st and 2nd round. All it takes is a hot streak, a bad bounce, a goalie. The Rangers are in that conversation whether you want to believe that or not.

Of course they are. I literally just said they are.

 

[haohmaru]

Of course they are. I literally just said they are.

You literally didn't. You said:

"This is a good team.

8 teams out of 32 make it to the second round.

Good teams don't compete for a Cup. Outstanding (or sometimes obnoxiously lucky) teams compete for a Cup."

That's saying the opposite - that they really aren't in the conversation.

 

[McRanger]

After reading about the helmet throw I was curious about how much changed.

The difference between the stats/results pre-helmet and post-helmet is basically a change in shooting percentage and goaltending.

12/3 and before they were unlucky, the first 26 games they had a 7.49% and 91.51% save percentage at 5v5 and a 8.66% and 90.11% overall. Shots, chances and fancy stats were all good but middling goaltending and poor shooting had their record about even and their GF/GA was exactly even 49-49 at 5v5 and 76-75 overall.

After 12/3 they had a 9.98% shooting percentage and a 92.37% save percentage at 5v5 and an 11.55% and 91.44% overall. Shots, chances and fancy stats were bad or worse but with a shooting and save percentages both near the top of the league their record was much better as their GF/GA were 131-104 at 5v5 and 197-141 overall.

If they had those numbers pre 12/3 they would have been near the top of the league in goal differential. Swap the numbers the other way and they are out of the playoffs.

Basically they were good but unlucky then got bad and lucky (or luckier anyway).

If they want to beat the Devils they can probably do it by being bad (or average) and lucky. You can get out shot and out chanced and good goaltending and something like a hot PP can still win a series. Its not uncommon.

If they want to win the whole thing they probably need to stay lucky but also get back to being good.

 

[bleedblue94]

Tonight is exactly why goodrow won't be bought out and people need to accept that and move on. This org wants to win a cup soon and he is the kind of player that gets you through and that virtually ANY other playoff team wishes they had on their 4th line this time of the year.

 

[Chytilmania]

Tonight is exactly why goodrow won't be bought out and people need to accept that and move on. This org wants to win a cup soon and he is the kind of player that gets you through and that virtually ANY other playoff team wishes they had on their 4th line this time of the year.

Way better than the previous Islanders' 4th lines.

Anyone in the playoffs have a 4th as good as the Rangers?

 

[McRanger92]

Do people think Schneider will never get better? We are too thin on defense and I think he still has top 4 potential.

You’d think we’d learn to stop trying to ship 21 year olds out of town

 

[Rangerboy030]

So if Toronto chokes in the first round again, do we start running numbers on how we could squeeze Matthews in should he bail next offseason?

 

[egelband]

Hm. I thought Schneider was going to take over for Trouba. Now he has bad Hockey IQ (always my favorite critique), is slow, can't pass and won't get better?

Damn, things have really changed for the kid over the course of this year.

Not from me. I really like Schneider.

 

[egelband]

Tonight is exactly why goodrow won't be bought out and people need to accept that and move on. This org wants to win a cup soon and he is the kind of player that gets you through and that virtually ANY other playoff team wishes they had on their 4th line this time of the year.

He won’t be bought out but I could still see him moved in the summer if there’s a serious cap crunch. He’ll have value. I don’t think it’s for sure either. But *if* they need to clear space he’s probably the guy. But he’s absolutely a key guy and the FO will do what they can to keep him.

 

[Daves a mess]

Just watched the game for the second time.

Ryan Lindgren, this year, "Skill Wise" has made a noticeable leap to me in his skating and all around polish to his game. He's good. And with Fox, they are a top pairing D on any team. Fox's game gets better with Ryan on his left.

Mikko Mikkola is a player I'd try hard to staple in as my 3rd pairing left D for the next 3 years.

He competes, hes strong, he's in your face, he gives 100% .

Let Robertsson beat him out if he can.

Can't see Zach their in with Gallants vision on 3rd pairings.

Patrick Kane was the least impressive forward shift by shift, IMO at even strength.

Tarasenkos Ranger body of work right now is a way better than Patrick Kane. Patrick's value is on the PP. Everywhere else he is a liability.

Kid line looked good. Laf 100% looks like a solid 3rd line player to me at this point.

It is what it is.

 

[The Gloaming]

So if Toronto chokes in the first round again, do we start running numbers on how we could squeeze Matthews in should he bail next offseason?

No thank you. If you go and watch his goals you will see that it's mostly Marner who is responsible for setting up most of them...plus the guy just folds like a house of cards come playoffs. I take Mika and his 200ft game over Matthews any day come playoffs.

 

[Boris Zubov]

No thank you. If you go and watch his goals you will see that it's mostly Marner who is responsible for setting up most of them...plus the guy just folds like a house of cards come playoffs. I take Mika and his 200ft game over Matthews any day come playoffs.

I don't want either of them.

 

[IDvsEGO]

No thank you. If you go and watch his goals you will see that it's mostly Marner who is responsible for setting up most of them...plus the guy just folds like a house of cards come playoffs. I take Mika and his 200ft game over Matthews any day come playoffs.

I mean matthews with panarin setting him up would be very similar. But we also can't afford it so its not feasable.

 

[NYRFANMANI]

I don't want either of them.

I mean if I had to choose it's AM34 AAAAAIIIIIINNNNNEEEECCCC

lmao @ Marner, dude's physically and mentally a midget. One of the best playmakers in the league, sure. But by god, I wound't touch him or his contract with a 100ft pole.