Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXXIX
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eco's bones
Registered User
To me it's more about their D--Hyman's a good player, Brown's a decent 3rd line--good 4th liner. Kapanen's a good player. Kadri's a very good player except he loses it too often and puts his team in a bad spot. Moore played pretty well for a bottom line guy. They could use a bit more size and grit there but the real problem is their D--and it's hard to find good defensemen but after Rielly it's a mediocre crew. Zaitsev was good his rookie year--pedestrian since--he's got too big of a contract. Gardiner falls apart under pressure and Muzzin's pretty good I guess but ideally at this point in his career a 4 or 5.
LORDE
I am Lorde, YA YA YA
LORDE
I am Lorde, YA YA YA
Edge
Kris King's Ghost
The 2003-2010 drafts were a pretty good time to be a first or second overall pick with hopes of winning a cup.
Of course that's also skewed by the fact that several Pens picks were first and second overall.
Of course that's also skewed by the fact that several Pens picks were first and second overall.
haohmaru
boomshakalaka
Good catch - I always seem to forget his rookie year and won the Cup.
eco's bones
Registered User
This is absolutely true about Shanahan. Big NHLPA guy until he became a boss. Now it's completely the other way. They f***ed up with Nylander--who is a good player but not Marner good and they're going to have issues because of it. And the Marleau contract is probably going to bite them in the ass. If you're going to have 3 huge contracts--you're definitely going to have to limit the number of other large contracts and you're going to need a bunch of ELC guys every year and be willing to move on from at least some of them when they start getting good.
haohmaru
boomshakalaka
haohmaru
boomshakalaka
Last meaning all subsequent 1OA's haven't won a Cup since then. Obviously, Ovie won a Cup too.
If you look at the last 2 winners, you really don't need any.
An all situations stud makes life a lot easier, but hasn't been necessary.
Edge
Kris King's Ghost
I feel like, as a broad and general guideline, you need at least 2, ideally 3 elite players, and a balanced team around them.
Now that trio can be different combinations of positions, but I tend to feel that 3 gives you good starting odds.
In that same vein, I tend to feel like it's much easier to get away with not having an elite goalie, than it is not having elite skaters. In others words, in an ideal world, it's better to have two elite forwards and one elite defenseman, or one elite forward and two elite defenseman, than it is to have a 1-1-1 combo, a 2-0-1 combo, or a 0-2-1 combo.
Now that trio can be different combinations of positions, but I tend to feel that 3 gives you good starting odds.
In that same vein, I tend to feel like it's much easier to get away with not having an elite goalie, than it is not having elite skaters. In others words, in an ideal world, it's better to have two elite forwards and one elite defenseman, or one elite forward and two elite defenseman, than it is to have a 1-1-1 combo, a 2-0-1 combo, or a 0-2-1 combo.
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TheTakedown
Puck is Life
- Jul 11, 2012
- 13,694
- 1,493
Trouba:
Year, Age, GP
| 2013-14 | 19 | 65 |
| 2014-15 | 20 | 65 |
| 2015-16 | 21 | 81 |
| 2016-17 | 22 | 60 |
| 2017-18 | 23 | 55 |
| 2018-19 | 24 | 82 |
Letang:
Year, Age, GP
| 2006-07 | 19 | 7 |
| 2007-08 | 20 | 63 |
| 2008-09 | 21 | 74 |
| 2009-10 | 22 | 73 |
| 2010-11 | 23 | 82 |
| 2011-12 | 24 | 51 |
| 2012-13 | 25 | 35 |
McDonagh:
Year, Age, GP
| 2010-11 | 21 | 40 |
| 2011-12 | 22 | 82 |
| 2012-13 | 23 | 47 |
| 2013-14 | 24 | 77 |
| 2014-15 | 25 | 71 |
| 2015-16 | 26 | 73 |
Giordano:
Year, Age, GP
| 2005-06 | 22 | 7 |
| 2006-07 | 23 | 48 |
| 2008-09 | 25 | 58 |
| 2009-10 | 26 | 82 |
| 2010-11 | 27 | 82 |
| 2011-12 | 28 | 61 |
| 2012-13 | 29 | 47 |
all this moaning and whining about durability when it looks like Trouba has actually played MORE games then some of the top guys in the league, eh? You want to know why?
Because all of these guys have had chronic injury histories.........
McDonagh with the injuries for the last 2 years, letang with concussions and groin issues, Giordano with mileage.
Trouba has NONE of that.
You can even prorate the GP for guys who played in the 12-13 season to 48 games and difference is minor.
I can get more data if you really want...
Tell me, what's the alternative? Hope we hit on a guy in this years draft and wait 3+ years for him to start to break out? Most Dmen don't start hitting their stride till 23... Even if you take a 19 year old, you're waiting 4 years for that guy to fit on an NHL roster... 4 years is 2023-24.....
Letangs count goes to 425 (That assumes he plays a full season. If you double his 35 games played, he's only at 405)
McDOnagh's count goes to 425
Giordano's count goes to 413
All right around trouba's 408....
This assumes each of those guys played a full 82 game season for 12-13, which is likely not what would have, you'd probably shave a few games off for rest or smaller DTD injuries
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You’re using the lock out season of 2013 for those other guys which skews the numbers.
TheTakedown
Puck is Life
- Jul 11, 2012
- 13,694
- 1,493
To be fair, the very beginning of the season, literally EVERYONE was on the table... That was literally in the dead middle of the "rip this team to shreds" period, so, yeah, everyone can be on the table. It only took 2-3 months of Zib's play for people to realize he was a keeper. The only time it comes up, if you read the context, is that teams would have to overpay, e.g. Zibanejad is untouchable unless he brings back a top 5 pick. It was that way until January and then those posts start to goaway
TheTakedown
Puck is Life
- Jul 11, 2012
- 13,694
- 1,493
Letangs count goes to 425 (That assumes he plays a full season. If you double his 35 games played, he's only at 405), 71 games/season (or 67.5 for letan)
McDOnagh's count goes to 425, 71 games/season
Giordano's count goes to 413, 69 Games/Season
All right around trouba's 408, which is 68 games/season
(All numbers rounded up)
425 - 408 = 17 games, over 6 seasons is a whopping THREE GAMES PER SEASON MISSED over 6 years compared to these three defensemen...
This assumes each of those guys played a full 82 game season for 12-13, which is likely not what would have, you'd probably shave a few games off for rest or smaller DTD injuries
Again, are we really going to complain that Trouba would play 3 games/year less than the average dman? Does that really make him "injury prone"?!?!? It's a factor sure... a major one? Not even close
All of Edge's tilts on this are assuming a dman plays 80 games a year. That does not happen often for a dman
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Edge
Kris King's Ghost
On the train so can’t research. But I can already point out a few flaws.
For one you’re including lockout years.
Second, some of those guys didn’t miss time because of injury, they missed because they were in the AHL. For example the 40 games you have listed for McD doesn’t take into account they he was playing in the AHL. I already gave you a more accurate reference in a previous post.
Third, speaking of McD, we already addressed how his status was effected when the injuries started piling up, and now that contributed to his eventual trade. That too is in a previous post.
I mean you don’t have to like the numbers. But they are what they are.
And that’s about all I can compile on my phone from a train, but I think the points already been made.
LORDE
I am Lorde, YA YA YA
Copy misunderstood what u were saying but yes Ovie also but I can’t remember last week let alone last yr lol
Pretty soon we could be talking about Mackinnon and Landeskog as the most recent #1 AND #2 picks to win the cup 
But statistically, they probably won't be.
The Avs are a good case study in how difficult it is to win a cup, even when you draft high in multiple years. Going back to the 2011 draft they have a 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 2 10th overalls in their current lineup. And they also traded a #3 overall for a pretty good haul that will include a high pick this year.
But even with that core, they have only an 8% chance to win this year (source: The Athletic playoff probability calculator). And that's after winning in the first round. So let's say we give them a 10% (and that's VERY generous) chance of winning in each year for the next 3 years after this, they only have a 33% chance of winning a cup before 2023. Mackinnon's contract will be up by then and Landeskog's would have been over for 2 years. So the process starts over again.
So even giving them very generous odds for the next 3 years, and considering that they've won a round in this year's playoffs already, one of the league's best young cores (if not the best) is unlikely to win a cup as currently constructed. It's another sign of how crazy parity has gotten in today's NHL, and it's part of the reason I shake my head when people criticize the way the Leafs have built their team. A bounce here or there against the Bruins and the Leafs are Stanley Cup favorites right now. A bounce here or there last year and Ovi never gets his cup. Or a well constructed Rangers team loses a SCF where 3 out of 5 games go to OT.
You can only do so much to build the right team, and high draft picks can only help so much. The rest - as unfortunate of a reality as it might be - is entirely luck.
But statistically, they probably won't be.The Avs are a good case study in how difficult it is to win a cup, even when you draft high in multiple years. Going back to the 2011 draft they have a 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 2 10th overalls in their current lineup. And they also traded a #3 overall for a pretty good haul that will include a high pick this year.
But even with that core, they have only an 8% chance to win this year (source: The Athletic playoff probability calculator). And that's after winning in the first round. So let's say we give them a 10% (and that's VERY generous) chance of winning in each year for the next 3 years after this, they only have a 33% chance of winning a cup before 2023. Mackinnon's contract will be up by then and Landeskog's would have been over for 2 years. So the process starts over again.
So even giving them very generous odds for the next 3 years, and considering that they've won a round in this year's playoffs already, one of the league's best young cores (if not the best) is unlikely to win a cup as currently constructed. It's another sign of how crazy parity has gotten in today's NHL, and it's part of the reason I shake my head when people criticize the way the Leafs have built their team. A bounce here or there against the Bruins and the Leafs are Stanley Cup favorites right now. A bounce here or there last year and Ovi never gets his cup. Or a well constructed Rangers team loses a SCF where 3 out of 5 games go to OT.
You can only do so much to build the right team, and high draft picks can only help so much. The rest - as unfortunate of a reality as it might be - is entirely luck.
Beacon
Embrace the tank
- May 28, 2007
- 13,676
- 1,454
Possibly K'Andre? But I think he may be overrated here. I'd be pretty surprised if he became as good as Leetch. Maybe as good as Mcdonagh, but even that is unlikely at this point.
From 2017 to 2019, we used 3 top-10 picks on forwards. We sent away our best center (Brassard) for a young forward (Zibanejad). We got a forward former first rounder (Howden) as the best asset for our captain. We drafted Chytil and Butcher.
Our top D pick is #22. We acquired a few D prospects, but none are elite in any sense. There's no Kakko, not even Chytil or Kravtsov among our blue liners in terms of their ceiling.
That's why after Kakko, we should use our next couple of picks on defensemen, particularly RDs. They dont have giddy stats, but defensemen are more important to winning than forwards.
Beacon
Embrace the tank
- May 28, 2007
- 13,676
- 1,454
At the 2021 TDL, Staal will bring back a second rounder because his cap hit and term will be minimal by then. For the next 1.5 seasons, who cares, the cap isn't a problem.
Speaking of which, the desire to give up picks or cap space to get rid of Staal and Smith proves that nobody wants to acquire Panarin or another expensive UFA just because they want vet leadership. Staal has a ton of great experience and he did it in as Rangers jersey. The desire to throw away picks and cap space to replace Staal with Panarin is nothing but the desire to sacrifice future Cup chances just to wind up 9th in the East instead of 14th.
haohmaru
boomshakalaka
The only place Staal should be providing "vet leadership" from at this point is behind the bench, not on it. We can't give him away because he's awful and because he's got a NTC. And, no, I'm not advocating sacrificing picks or players simply to move him. He's not an NHL defenseman, to me, at this point. I'd eat the salary and have him be the 7th D and let the young guys get experience.
The idea that you can precisely predict where the Rangers will finish with or without Panarin is comical. You don't know how the team will develop, how Panarin would mesh with this team, which FA's the Rangers will sign, how well the newbies (Kakko, Kravstov, Shesty, etc...) will do or how new 2nd year vets will fare next year. I don't think the Rangers will be a playoff team next year - but the year following? I think they'll compete for a spot and look at how the bubble teams are performing this year. Panarin, on a 2nd year of a contract, could certainly help that 2020-21 team get the necessary experience to perform down the stretch and make the playoffs - experience that they'll need in the years moving forward after that.
But, it's all probably moot. I don't think Panarin is ending up here. Why would he? The further Columbus goes towards Lord Stanley, the more likely he'll not want to be on a full rebuild team and be more of a guy to get a team into the dance (Florida) or a more successful team than that.
Shesterkybomb
Registered User
- Dec 30, 2016
- 17,683
- 19,390
We will be able to roll out 6 good d at some point here, we have the pieces. I'm not sure we have a Leetch but I like DeAngelo, Skjei, Miller, Hajek as a base to build from. I haven't even written off Day yet, I honestly think he would be better served in the nhl with Quinn but he hasnt earned it so it's tough to do.
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