Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXXIX

[Waivers]

I think the pro-Panarin supporters all agree that there is not another threatening UFA piece in sight that we deem as valuable. Name another UFA in the next year or two who is more attractive than Panarin, given their age, raw talent, and the bell curve of how productive they are season after season. If you don’t want Panarin, that’s fine, but there’s nothing super lucrative in the upcoming UFA seasons either unless someone can provide some examples (don’t say OV/Backstrom because they’re older and not going anywhere). There is an argument that can be made if we have no certainty on which player will blossom in 2 years from now during UFA.

 

[LORDE]

Nobody is ever saying you can predict next year exactly. Nobody. The point is that there's zero reason to believe this team can contend quickly. Obviously if Kakko becomes Jagr, Chytil & Kravtsov become Weight and Amonte, K'Andre is Chelios, Shesterkin is Lundqvist, then yes, things can turn around quickly. But the odds are incredibly low that even 1 of these happen.

We need to know if Kravtsov is Amonte or Butcher or Dawes. We need to know if Shesterkin is Lundqvist or Cloutier or Asplund. Hell, we dont even know if Kakko is just another 50 point winger in his prime or a 95 point superstar.

When we had Buchnevich and Duclair as prospects, who thought one will be a middle-6 guy and the other will outright suck? Who thought 30-goal Prucha and Dawes will turn into nothing? Remember the hype around Immonen and Balej? Brendl and Lundmark? Dube and Cherneski? The last time both our top forward prospects became great players were Weight and Amonte three decades ago... and we traded them for three middle-6 veterans.

Let's figure out what we have before we start signing UFAs.

Omg someone PLZ sticky this post!

I’m catholic and I believe in and preach this post more than my faith

 

[Waivers]

I will also follow up and agree that a 7 year deal, even for a guy like Panarin is too much though. 5 year deal but I wonder what the cap hit would be and if he would even accept. Other than that, let the Rangers sell Kreider and be a shit bag team again next year and continue trying to get in the Top 10 draft again.

 

[True Blue]

From 2005 to 2013 there were 9 players who scored 80+ points at age 27. They are Thornton,Hossa,Lecavalier, Jokinen, Datsyuk, Gaborik, Ribeiro, Tanguay. In their age 32 season they scored (prorated to 82 games) 86,86,84,78,77,67,63,56,54. Why would he become an albatross when all of his comparables did not? *Zetterberg and Lecavalier age 32 season came in the lockout year. Keep in mind as well most of those age 27 seasons were right after the lockout which were higher scoring years. Most of their age 32 seasons came in lowing scoring seasons.

What I am talking about is in 4 years, when I believe the Rangers will truly be starting to compete for the prize. At that point, he will be 31 through 33 and not the same king of player he is now. The amount of players who were 32 years old and still scored that many points is very low and not something that I am willing to bet on with a large contract.

 

[LORDE]

Whoever it is, players like him are almost never available.

Ding! Show it on the board! Ding!

 

[SA16]

What I am talking about is in 4 years, when I believe the Rangers will truly be starting to compete for the prize. At that point, he will be 31 through 33 and not the same king of player he is now. The amount of players who were 32 years old and still scored that many points is very low and not something that I am willing to bet on with a large contract.

But I just showed you that 7/9 players who scored 80+ points at age 27 since the lockout scored at least 60+ points/82 games five years later and 5/9 scored 70+ and all of their age 32 seasons were in lower scoring eras then their age 27 seasons.

Most age 32 players are not great

Most age 32 players who were at least a point/game player at age 27 are still first liners.

So why are you expecting him to age more like your run of the mill low end first liner/second liners and not like the nine guys who actually scored at a similar rate to him?

 

[LORDE]

It's amazing. If we sign one free agent--there goes the rebuild. All those draft picks then will never get any ice time. They'll all shrivel up and die. Even so they might be no good anyway. Another message is we need to bottom out for one more season which sounds kind of like last year's message. Maybe it will be next year's too. I can see moving Kreider but I'd be looking to replace him and with something better if I could. But if you want to bottom out all the way--be one of the bottom 3--well **** it--do it all the way then. Move along Zibanejad and Skjei too--and why put Mika through this bull**** anyway? It ain't going to be fun for him spending the next couple seasons getting all the pieces into place and then two or three more getting those pieces up to speed by which time we'll probably have shipped him off anyway.

No one who had any clue thought that Higgins was a better player than Gomez. At least most knew that McDonagh was the key piece in that deal.

K'Andre Miller is not going to be Leetch or Chelios. He doesn't play like either. He's more like Seth Jones--tall, rangy, fast, physical with some offensive ability. Do the draft over again and I think he goes higher--he was having a really good year before his injury.

Kravtsov also might go earlier if that draft were done again. He had a really good KHL year for a low scoring team. Do I expect 50 points from him this year?--well if he's in Hartford and stays healthy--probably. If he's with the Rangers--probably not.

Kakko's expected to make the leap right off. There's no reason to believe he can't do what Svechnikov, Kotkaniemi or Tkachuk did last year. He was more impressive in Liiga than Kotkaniemi for instance. Will he be a superstar right out of the gate? I don't think so.

But yeah the coaching staff is going to have to figure out what these kids are capable of whenever it is they get here. Having some structure though will help. Having talented guys like Zibanejad and dare I say Panarin will help and not hinder them.

I get it--some people are glass half empty people. They're always going to look at things in a negative light and sometimes it's almost like the Rangers are being punished for some unspecified unarticulated sin. There's nothing set in stone about the way a team goes about reinventing itself. We're not religiously following some script to get to some end. The Stanley Cup isn't the Holy Grail--it's a ****ing cup. No one knows where the Grail is.

This post rides both sides of the tail.

We need to draft high again next year. However that happens AND it will. Is fine.

Panarin does nothing but draft 8-10

Kakko... Kravtsov etc will be fine. They’ll gain experience and be in the same f***ing locker room as HALL OF FAME HENRIK.

One more of the rebuild crowd is exactly what this team needs and exactly what Gorton is doing

 

[nevesis]

Haha wow...

 

[Ori]

Just one important topic we dont need Erik Karlsson, not interested, nope, no. It will not happen that`s all this evening.
Enjoy the summer window, but that trade rumor need to go.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Haha wow...

That Kakko tweet is an afterthought and seems to be about "damage control". There has been criticism about the NJD twitter account focusing a lot on Hughes. The video they tweet about Kakko, is from yesterday's game, that happened 24 hours ago.

This seems like someone from upper management told them to share something on Kakko to take away the rumors that they had already made up their mind

 

[ETTER DE]

I think that next year, the Rangers bottom out. I think that they only start to rise and compete in the 20-21 season. I think that there are at least two more years until they are truly ready to compete and become a real Cup contender. That's 4 years. The acquisition of Panarin would do nothing to change this timeline, IMO. And would waste the prime years of his career and become an albatross of a contract at a time when the Rangers will be looking to add free agents to hopefully augment their playoff run.

I do not know what is right or wrong, but with that timeline surely Zibanejad has to be traded?

 

[Matt4776]

Why are we doing P/82 when a significant concern with massive contracts to older players is their body breaking down?

 

[Matz03]

UFA years we should try to hold out for is the summer of 2022. So that means take every step to have $ flexibility for then. At the point our new core will start emerging and we can add some of these guys to round out the team. I ignored guys over 30.

26 yo Barkov
27 yo Forsberg
27 yo Jones, Ristolainen
29 yo Klingberg
30 yo Manson
29 yo Parayko

 

[DanielBrassard]

UFA years we should try to hold out for is the summer of 2022. So that means take every step to have $ flexibility for then. At the point our new core will start emerging and we can add some of these guys to round out the team. I ignored guys over 30.

26 yo Barkov
27 yo Forsberg
27 yo Jones, Ristolainen
29 yo Klingberg
30 yo Manson
29 yo Parayko

How many of these guys get to UFA? Give me 31 year old Panarin over any of the defenseman except Jones anyway.

 

[FireGerardGallant]

Can't wait till Panarin signs in Florida so we never speak bout this again

 

[Edge]

Whoever it is, players like him are almost never available.

I will admit that exact phrase has popped into my mind a few times over the course of this season, whether it was EK, or Panarin, or Trouba, or whoever else we may have talked about that I've long since forgotten about.

 

[SA16]

How many of these guys get to UFA? Give me 31 year old Panarin over any of the defenseman except Jones anyway.

Highly unlikely Barkov/Forsberg/Jones make it to FA and I would have no interest in Ristolainen or Manson.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

The one thing I will say is that you can build through the draft and through smart ufa signings at the same time. You don't have to pick one or the other, as long as you keep your picks it's actually the smartest Avenue once you have restocked the shelves like we have been. Adding high end talent no matter where you get it from as long as you arent giving up futures is a win especially when cap space means nothing to us right now.
A smart ufa signing is Panarin for 6 years at hopefully 9.5 or 10 a year. A typical Ranger signing would be Karlsson for 7 years 80 mill, I hope we dont get stupid again.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Highly unlikely Barkov/Forsberg/Jones make it to FA and I would have no interest in Ristolainen or Manson.

You have no way of knowing that.

We don't know what their respective teams are going to look like by then and if they'll want to test the market.

 

[DanielBrassard]

Highly unlikely Barkov/Forsberg/Jones make it to FA and I would have no interest in Ristolainen or Manson.

Right. Not to mention their cap hits would be higher than Panarin's at a time when we would have some key contracts up for renewal. If you believe Panarin will be an albatross I guess that's not a big deal but if he's still really good then it's a disadvantage.

 

[SA16]

You have no way of knowing that.

We don't know what their respective teams are going to look like by then and if they'll want to test the market.

I said highly unlikely. Not it won't happen. The vast majority of top players since the last lockout have re-signed with their initial team. Tavares/Panarin are exceptions. I do not include Karlsson/Duchene in this group since they have not had a long history of playing on their current teams. So yes, it is most definitely unlikely but it is also possible that it can happen.

 

[Matz03]

Highly unlikely Barkov/Forsberg/Jones make it to FA and I would have no interest in Ristolainen or Manson.

In your crystal ball, how many playoff rounds have the Panthers been through in 2022? Is Nashville in the middle of a rebuild at that point? How about Columbus?

 

[Irishguy42]

In your crystal ball, how many playoff rounds have the Panthers been through in 2022?

Thinking that playoff round wins is THE factor in a player deciding on free agency. Neat.

Is Nashville in the middle of a rebuild at that point?

There are way more players on that roster that would be sold off before Forsberg.

How about Columbus?

Christ...does thinking before speaking happen anymore?

 

[bobbop]

A word about ‘albatross’ contracts...I still do quite a bit of media consulting and the subject of the NHL TV contract came up today with a client. She told me that she expects the next US rights deal (bidding will likely open this fall) will bring in somewhere between $4-5 Billion (that’s Billion) over the next 10 years. By my calculations, that in and of itself will drive the cap between $5-6 MM immediately and will continue to escalate over time. The cap is headed to $100MM over the next 5-6 years.

 

[SA16]

In your crystal ball, how many playoff rounds have the Panthers been through in 2022? Is Nashville in the middle of a rebuild at that point? How about Columbus?

Ok you’re right I’m wrong. The likely scenario is those guys will become UFA.