Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXXIX

[trilobyte]

Still seems ridiculous to me to unite the Hughes.

Canuck fans miss the Sedins.

 

[UAGoalieGuy]

Do the Leafs even have a model? They're a team that was bad for a long time while trying very hard not to be bad. They handed out bad contracts, traded two top-10 picks for an elite scorer while failing to build a team around him, and made some very questionable draft picks along the way. Dubas seems to get an awful lot of accolades for simply having taken over a team that was already in a premium position.

Gorton has done in two years what took the Leafs the better part of a decade to build. I like whatever his model is so far.

The Leafs made a huge mistake signing Tavares. They should have spent that cash on D.

 

[RangerBoy]

While pushing the timeline up is not a thought that should be dismissed, I think it is disingenuous to call out the Tavares signing as bad. JT is a great player. The real botch job from Dubas was his inability or lack of desire to love a quality forward piece for a quality defensive piece.

The blueline is not good and the Muzzin trade would have looked a lot better if he was a right handed shot.

Wrong.

The Leafs have too many players making too much money. Marner will make 3 players making at least $10M per. It's hard to put a team together with 3 players making upwards of $30M. It's hard to put a team together with two players making upwards of $10M per. The beat writers covering the Hawks have brought up the Hawks paying Kane and Toews $21M combined as a reason for them not doing much since those contracts were signed. Shanahan knew Auston and Mitch would cost a fortune to keep. His idea was to have those players take less money. Shanahan never took less money. He always used the CBA to make himself a rich guy.

In 1991, Shanahan's agent pursued teams about getting his client a new contract as a Group I free agent. The team wouldn't be able to match the contract and an arbitrator would determine the compensation if the teams couldn't agree. I remember the Rangers were interested but they were afraid of losing Leetch as compensation. Shanahan went to the Blues. The arbitrator sent Stevens to the Devils. The Blues had just signed Stevens from the Caps the previous summer. The Blues gave up the numerous 1st round picks as compensation.

Shanahan made a fortune playing for the Red Wings. His Rangers contracts were lucrative too.

Point is Shanahan never took less. He pushed the envelope to get as much money as possible.

The Leafs signed Tavares and the team isn't better. They will re-sign Marner. Other players will go to make the cap work. The new players coming in won't be better. Their blue line is bad. They still have Marleau's $6.25M contract on their books for next season.

Will the Leafs be better team with Tavares at $11M or were they better off to just keep building their team, keeping their team together & have the money to improve their D?

 

[Ola]

Wrong.

The Leafs have too many players making too much money. Marner will make 3 players making at least $10M per. It's hard to put a team together with 3 players making upwards of $30M. It's hard to put a team together with two players making upwards of $10M per. The beat writers covering the Hawks have brought up the Hawks paying Kane and Toews $21M combined as a reason for them not doing much since those contracts were signed. Shanahan knew Auston and Mitch would cost a fortune to keep. His idea was to have those players take less money. Shanahan never took less money. He always used the CBA to make himself a rich guy.

In 1991, Shanahan's agent pursued teams about getting his client a new contract as a Group I free agent. The team wouldn't be able to match the contract and an arbitrator would determine the compensation if the teams couldn't agree. I remember the Rangers were interested but they were afraid of losing Leetch as compensation. Shanahan went to the Blues. The arbitrator sent Stevens to the Devils. The Blues had just signed Stevens from the Caps the previous summer. The Blues gave up the numerous 1st round picks as compensation.

Shanahan made a fortune playing for the Red Wings. His Rangers contracts were lucrative too.

Point is Shanahan never took less. He pushed the envelope to get as much money as possible.

The Leafs signed Tavares and the team isn't better. They will re-sign Marner. Other players will go to make the cap work. The new players coming in won't be better. Their blue line is bad. They still have Marleau's $6.25M contract on their books for next season.

Will the Leafs be better team with Tavares at $11M or were they better off to just keep building their team, keeping their team together & have the money to improve their D?

Yeah, but I am still missing the alternative. Sure its "hard to put a team together with 3 players making upwards of $30M", but isn't it hard to put together a Cup winner without 3 players making upwards of 30m? Winnipeg built a team full of homegrown kids, why do they suck right now?

Why are we assuming that Toronto had any better alternatives? This is the problem with Toronto but also the Rangers, for us, too. The only viewpoint is that you are entitled to win and if you don't someone screwed up. Do something else, fire everyone.

My point is not that we should go out and get 3 guys making upwards 30m. But 2 of the last 3 cups were won by a team with 3 guys making what 25-26m in Crosby, Malkin and Letang. Washington had their fair share of high paid players too. There is no blue-print for winning a Cup. You need to navigate between the options that are out there.

However, I think a much stronger argument "against" getting three guys making 30m is that you commit to the possibility of those 3 being able to get it done for a very long time, if it turns out that they don't have it, you have very little flexibility.

 

[East Coast Bias]

Wrong.

The Leafs have too many players making too much money. Marner will make 3 players making at least $10M per. It's hard to put a team together with 3 players making upwards of $30M. It's hard to put a team together with two players making upwards of $10M per. The beat writers covering the Hawks have brought up the Hawks paying Kane and Toews $21M combined as a reason for them not doing much since those contracts were signed. Shanahan knew Auston and Mitch would cost a fortune to keep. His idea was to have those players take less money. Shanahan never took less money. He always used the CBA to make himself a rich guy.

In 1991, Shanahan's agent pursued teams about getting his client a new contract as a Group I free agent. The team wouldn't be able to match the contract and an arbitrator would determine the compensation if the teams couldn't agree. I remember the Rangers were interested but they were afraid of losing Leetch as compensation. Shanahan went to the Blues. The arbitrator sent Stevens to the Devils. The Blues had just signed Stevens from the Caps the previous summer. The Blues gave up the numerous 1st round picks as compensation.

Shanahan made a fortune playing for the Red Wings. His Rangers contracts were lucrative too.

Point is Shanahan never took less. He pushed the envelope to get as much money as possible.

The Leafs signed Tavares and the team isn't better. They will re-sign Marner. Other players will go to make the cap work. The new players coming in won't be better. Their blue line is bad. They still have Marleau's $6.25M contract on their books for next season.

Will the Leafs be better team with Tavares at $11M or were they better off to just keep building their team, keeping their team together & have the money to improve their D?

Maybe you should wait more than 10 months before taking your victory lap?

 

[Beacon]

Do the Leafs even have a model? They're a team that was bad for a long time while trying very hard not to be bad. They handed out bad contracts, traded two top-10 picks for an elite scorer while failing to build a team around him, and made some very questionable draft picks along the way. Dubas seems to get an awful lot of accolades for simply having taken over a team that was already in a premium position.

Gorton has done in two years what took the Leafs the better part of a decade to build. I like whatever his model is so far.

The Leafs accumulated talent, but failed at step 2, which is to build a team. That requires defensemen, grinders, etc. They have a few great forwards, that's it. You build a plan to shut those down and the Leafs really can't beat most playoff teams over a 7 game series.

They shouldve acquired defensemen as prospects because getting them now in their prime costs a premium. You almost always have to downgrade in talent when dealing an F for an RD, often for an LD too. They also have cap problems, so that doesn't make it easier.

 

[Off Sides]

Dallas depth at forward behind Seguin and Benn is Radulov

Not much there at all.

I'd call their bluff if they called and stated the 1st is to much to give up if they signed Zuccs.

I'm not doing them any favors

Guess I'd rather have the pick than be all that worried about bluffing.

Maybe it's just my perception, I actually think the GMs probably have relatively honest conversations with each other. Of course they try to get the better of one another yet I don't think they are going to call and say, hey if we have to give up the 1st we can't extend, then turn around and extend anyway. That would probably seem kind of like the next conversation was maybe not based on integrity.

 

[I Eat Crow]

All of these upsets in the first round bode well for us as far as varying interest in our assets. This year is giving the "anything can happen" crowd a lot of ammo.

 

[NYR Viper]

The Leafs accumulated talent, but failed at step 2, which is to build a team. That requires defensemen, grinders, etc. They have a few great forwards, that's it. You build a plan to shut those down and the Leafs really can't beat most playoff teams over a 7 game series.

They shouldve acquired defensemen as prospects because getting them now in their prime costs a premium. You almost always have to downgrade in talent when dealing an F for an RD, often for an LD too. They also have cap problems, so that doesn't make it easier.

It's very premature to think the Leafs can't re-adjust this off-season and get better next year and the years following. They have assets to move like Nylander, Jonsson and Kapanen who can help bring in the right complimentary pieces.

 

[Gardner McKay]

I'll give them credit for establishing a successful model for their farm team, being innovative in the field of analytics, and probably setting the bar for future RFA deals (whether we like that or not).

However, I do get what you're saying, and I think rebuilding in aggregate will be keep for if this rebuild is successful. The one constant through the first three teams I've mentioned is strong drafting through the US prospect pools, and I'll continue hammering that point until some dope in our front office gets it through their skulls. Maybe pass the word along?

I'm not anti-analytics. But why does this matter and why do they get credit for it? What have they accomplished with their innovation?

Regarding the second bold point - They drafted three guys from the US last year, including one of our top prospects. If we went with the US kid that we all wanted vs. the Russian kid that they drafted....

 

[NYRKING30]

Wrong.

The Leafs have too many players making too much money. Marner will make 3 players making at least $10M per. It's hard to put a team together with 3 players making upwards of $30M. It's hard to put a team together with two players making upwards of $10M per. The beat writers covering the Hawks have brought up the Hawks paying Kane and Toews $21M combined as a reason for them not doing much since those contracts were signed. Shanahan knew Auston and Mitch would cost a fortune to keep. His idea was to have those players take less money. Shanahan never took less money. He always used the CBA to make himself a rich guy.

In 1991, Shanahan's agent pursued teams about getting his client a new contract as a Group I free agent. The team wouldn't be able to match the contract and an arbitrator would determine the compensation if the teams couldn't agree. I remember the Rangers were interested but they were afraid of losing Leetch as compensation. Shanahan went to the Blues. The arbitrator sent Stevens to the Devils. The Blues had just signed Stevens from the Caps the previous summer. The Blues gave up the numerous 1st round picks as compensation.

Shanahan made a fortune playing for the Red Wings. His Rangers contracts were lucrative too.

Point is Shanahan never took less. He pushed the envelope to get as much money as possible.

The Leafs signed Tavares and the team isn't better. They will re-sign Marner. Other players will go to make the cap work. The new players coming in won't be better. Their blue line is bad. They still have Marleau's $6.25M contract on their books for next season.

Will the Leafs be better team with Tavares at $11M or were they better off to just keep building their team, keeping their team together & have the money to improve their D?

Ofcourse Shanahan's idea was for them to take less since you know, he's actually on the other side of the fence now. If Marner and Matthews are execs 30 years from now and they have 2 star players, do you think they are going to want the star players to get as much as they can get? So not really sure where any of that applies.

 

[Mac n Gs]

I'm not anti-analytics. But why does this matter and why do they get credit for it? What have they accomplished with their innovation?

Regarding the second bold point - They drafted three guys from the US last year, including one of our top prospects. If we went with the US kid that we all wanted vs. the Russian kid that they drafted....

I’m not having an analytics conversation in here because the usual people will come in like kamikaze pilots to sink this thread. PM me if you want to have it separately.

To the second point, I was referring towards later rounds where we’ve seen Boston, Chicago, Pitt invest in strong USHL performers that spend some time in college. Just go down the list of their guys and see how many of their important depth guys are from the US ranks; strong SuperElit performers also fit this bill. As it gets later in the draft, I tend to favor guys you know will be receiving proper strength and conditioning and playing in advanced structured systems. They usually end up stronger skaters that understand how to play fast north-south hockey.

This doesn’t matter as much at the top of the draft when the talent pool is much more concentrated and easier to evaluate.

 

[Gardner McKay]

I’m not having an analytics conversation in here because the usual people will come in like kamikaze pilots to sink this thread. PM me if you want to have it separately.

To the second point, I was referring towards later rounds where we’ve seen Boston, Chicago, Pitt invest in strong USHL performers that spend some time in college. Just go down the list of their guys and see how many of their important depth guys are from the US ranks; strong SuperElit performers also fit this bill. As it gets later in the draft, I tend to favor guys you know will be receiving proper strength and conditioning and playing in advanced structured systems. They usually end up stronger skaters that understand how to play fast north-south hockey.

This doesn’t matter as much at the top of the draft when the talent pool is much more concentrated and easier to evaluate.

Well, they took a shot on Keane (who I didn't realize played USHL and OHL) and Hughes. We have a lot of picks this year. Should be interesting to see what direction they go. It would be quite hilarious if they followed what you're saying but did it by taking USHL goalies

 

[DutchShamrock]

Ofcourse Shanahan's idea was for them to take less since you know, he's actually on the other side of the fence now. If Marner and Matthews are execs 30 years from now and they have 2 star players, do you think they are going to want the star players to get as much as they can get? So not really sure where any of that applies.

I don't think it was a question of where Shanahan's interests lie. It's an indictment of his foresight that he banked on stars taking a discount since he had the unique perspective of being a star in this league that used his leverage numerous times. If the leafs signed Tavares and banked on adding defense with the Mathews and Marner savings, that's a blunder.

This particular debate has gone round and round for months and it is ultimately boiling down to how a deal is perceived. If you believe a deal is good if the player delivers on the expectations, than JT was a great signing. If you believe a deal was bad if it hampered the ability to build a proper team, than JT was not a good signing.

There is no question he played great. The question is if that money could have been spent better. That $11m spread out on a right d and a #2 center may have been more successful. Maybe not.

 

[Edge]

Do the Leafs even have a model? They're a team that was bad for a long time while trying very hard not to be bad. They handed out bad contracts, traded two top-10 picks for an elite scorer while failing to build a team around him, and made some very questionable draft picks along the way. Dubas seems to get an awful lot of accolades for simply having taken over a team that was already in a premium position.

Gorton has done in two years what took the Leafs the better part of a decade to build. I like whatever his model is so far.

You know it's funny, we sometimes lose sight of the timelines associated with other teams.

Toronto is a team that picked in the top 10 six times between 2008 and 2016, and five of those guys are still on their roster. Tampa picked in the top 10 five times between 2008 and 2013. Winnipeg has picked in the top 10 seven times between 2008 and 2016.

Regardless of how one views their ability to identify and draft talent, we can't ignore that they also had some prime cut opportunities as well.

In the case of Dubas and Yzerman, it's difficult to cast aside what was already in the cupboard when they took over. If anything, I think inheriting and not converting has the potential to deduct a few points from their scores, if these things remain unchanged.

By comparison, right now we're looking at our third top 10 selection in as many years--- including one that we acquired, but didn't receive based on our performance. So, there is a bit of a difference there.

I also think it highlights the need for time and patience with this process. If we're going to compare ourselves to some of these teams, we also need to take into account the journeys to reach their present state. They weren't overnight successes, and whether their approach truly works is still an unknown.

 

[NYRKING30]

I don't think it was a question of where Shanahan's interests lie. It's an indictment of his foresight that he banked on stars taking a discount since he had the unique perspective of being a star in this league that used his leverage numerous times. If the leafs signed Tavares and banked on adding defense with the Mathews and Marner savings, that's a blunder.

This particular debate has gone round and round for months and it is ultimately boiling down to how a deal is perceived. If you believe a deal is good if the player delivers on the expectations, than JT was a great signing. If you believe a deal was bad if it hampered the ability to build a proper team, than JT was not a good signing.

There is no question he played great. The question is if that money could have been spent better. That $11m spread out on a right d and a #2 center may have been more successful. Maybe not.

I've said it somewhere before in this thread. I'm in the latter camp where that deal hampered their ability to build a well balance team, that 11 million could have been allocated to their true area of need. It also can be fixed its just now they are going to have to give up one of their younger coveted players that they didn't originally want to part with.

 

[Beer League Sniper]

Toronto's biggest issue is not the Tavares contract. The value is there for the money.

Marleau and Zaitsev are killers, but it's refusing to move some of their lesser pieces (Nylander, Kapanen) for defensive help that's really cost them.

Look at Carolina. Their owner was openly complaining about focusing too much on defense. Arizona can't score to save their lives. You're telling me there wasn't a Johansen-for-Jones type deal to be had anywhere around the league? I don't buy it. Their GM thought he could outsmart everyone and place bandaids on the D while keeping every F. It failed spectacularly.

 

[Thirty One]

Point is Shanahan never took less. He pushed the envelope to get as much money as possible.

https://nypost.com/2006/07/09/bway-brendan-shanahan-says-yes-to-rangers/

"The Post has learned the 37-year-old free-agent left winger has accepted a one-year contract worth approximately $4M to join the Rangers after spurning more lucrative offers from both the Red Wings and Canadiens."

 

[Vitto79]

So if they get Fox it’s him Shatty , DeAngelo in Rd w Smith a spare

Trade Pionk for what ?

 

[DutchShamrock]

So if they get Fox it’s him Shatty , DeAngelo in Rd w Smith a spare

Trade Pionk for what ?

Ottawa is way under the cap floor. Not many signed on defense. Is Smith willing to waive to play regularly? He could protect some of their young stars.

 

[Zibanejbread]

I found RB...

 

[Edge]

Do the Leafs even have a model? They're a team that was bad for a long time while trying very hard not to be bad. They handed out bad contracts, traded two top-10 picks for an elite scorer while failing to build a team around him, and made some very questionable draft picks along the way. Dubas seems to get an awful lot of accolades for simply having taken over a team that was already in a premium position.

Gorton has done in two years what took the Leafs the better part of a decade to build. I like whatever his model is so far.

I think the Leafs are primarily boosted by the fact that they've nabbed some high-end talent in the top 10 of the draft and that they can sign free agents.

The Leafs are also a team that has struggled to produce talent outside of the first round and I think that lack of depth and diversity has shown itself in the playoffs the last couple of years. At some point, they're going to have to make the kinds of trades than fans aren't crazy about and that don't look great on paper --- moving a guy like Nylander for a very good support forward and a steady, but unspectacular defenseman. The type of deals where on paper you just traded 30 goals and 70 points for 20/45 and 5/20, but also have a more complete team.

Dubas, not unlike Yzerman, inherited a hell of a foundation to build on - but that's a double-edged sword. If he's unable to convert that inheritance into meaningful progress, and grow his team's fortunes, his performance is going to come under increased scrutiny - especially in that market.

Sports can be funny in the sense that today's wunderkind is tomorrow's idiot. And today's moron is tomorrow's genius and respected mind.

 

[Off Sides]

I think the Leafs build kind of shows the risks of trying to add established NHLers to take advantage of other entry level contracts when the rest of the team in not really on solid footing.

 

[Edge]

I found RB...

A big challenge is that fans and observers tend to be reactionary.

If teams with elite talent taken in the top 3 are in the final four, everyone writes about how you need that elite talent that's often available at the top of the draft.

If its a year where the underdogs are prevailing, everyone writes about the economies of depth and hard-working support players.

The reality is that you often need both, but resources are a finite in the NHL and not every type of piece you need is available every year.

Building a champion is complicated, and if it was as easy as reading instructions from a manual, someone would've wrote the book that everyone follows.

Strategies change, teams adapt, shit happens. Teams try to find the sweet spot for making adjustments, without doing too much or too little.

 

[True Blue]

Ottawa is way under the cap floor. Not many signed on defense. Is Smith willing to waive to play regularly? He could protect some of their young stars.

He could also skate on our 4th line and do the same for our young players.