Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXXIX

[Tawnos]

It is though... especially when you already have dead cap space. Just buy out Staal too! and Kirk! and Hank!

It adds up and I want the 2021 NYR to have all the cap they need to add whoever they ****ing want

Yeah, if you want to reduce it to the ridiculous you can make any point you choose.

$1.1m in dead space in 2021 isn't going to stop the Rangers from doing anything.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

View attachment 219293

f***ing perfect

 

[DanielBrassard]

I dunno, would you have believed the same about McD in 2014, with far less time lost to injuries?

That's arguable considering his 15-16 season was probably even better.

 

[Beacon]

Why do you say 14 months into a rebuild? The rebuild started after the loss to Penguins in the 2016 playoffs. When Gorton said the team needed to get younger. And let Yandle and Staal walk and traded Brassard. And if posters on this forum is to be trusted, he also made attempts to trade Stepan and McDonagh. It was the complete teardown that started 14 months ago. The rebuild has been going on for three years.

We didn't even have a first round pick in 2016. At most, our rebuilding could be said to have begun 22 months ago with the Stepan trade. Either way, all our top ceiling guys are teenagers. It's extremely early and we should not be signing UFAs who are 6-10 years older than the guys who will hopefully be the core when we can contend for the Cup.

 

[Tawnos]

I dunno, would you have believed the same about McD in 2014, with far less time lost to injuries?

I would have and it would have been a smart bet at the time too. I actually liked his 14-15 and 16-17 seasons better than his 13-14 season anyway... except for the playoffs, which granted did include the best 20 game stretch of his career.

 

[Edge]

That's arguable considering his 15-16 season was probably even better.

Yeah, you lost me on that one.

 

[ETTER DE]

We didn't even have a first round pick in 2016. At most, our rebuilding could be said to have begun 22 months ago with the Stepan trade. Either way, all our top ceiling guys are teenagers. It's extremely early and we should not be signing UFAs who are 6-10 years older than the guys who will hopefully be the core when we can contend for the Cup.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

yes, that guy.

whos play had visibly slipped at 27 yrs of age. who couldn't hit the net on the pp or keep the puck in the zone on the pp point. who seemed burdened by the C on his jersey. who was always banged up and trending in the wrong direction.

doesnt sound much like jake trouba now does it ? and remember, mcd was older and had more miles.

Doesn’t this just go to show it might not be wise to trade for and sign Trouba long term?

 

[Edge]

I would have and it would have been a smart bet at the time too. I actually liked his 14-15 and 16-17 seasons better than his 13-14 season anyway... except for the playoffs, which granted did include the best 20 game stretch of his career.

Yeah, I'm not with you on that one.

 

[LORDE]

Yeah, if you want to reduce it to the ridiculous you can make any point you choose.

$1.1m in dead space in 2021 isn't going to stop the Rangers from doing anything.

So math is ridiculous? It's math. You don't know anymore than I do who we will want to sign in the next few years. I know I want the most available cap space to do it. Including Girardi's dead cap which is already there.

I have zero interest in adding to that number just so we can not have Smith riding a bus to and from Hartford which will end in 2 years.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

McDonagh would have gotten a long-term contract if he was the same age as Trouba, this is a faulty comparison.

The comparison isn’t contract situation, it’s player durability. We’re all on board the McDonagh is currently breaking down, why is the guy averaging less games per season seen as more of a sure thing?

 

[Tawnos]

So math is ridiculous? It's math. You don't know anymore than I do who we will want to sign in the next few years. I know I want the most available cap space to do it. Including Girardi's dead cap which is already there.

I have zero interest in adding to that number just so we can not have Smith riding a bus to and from Hartford which will end in 2 years.

What I was calling ridiculous was saying "if we buy out Smith without worrying about the cap hit, that means we can buy out anyone!"

I do know that $1m in available cap space has never once been the difference in getting who we wanted and not in the entire time the cap has existed and, as that cap has gone up, it's meant less and less. People wring their hands over it constantly, but it's rarely the issue people think it is.

 

[Edge]

I guess I'll bite, and ask the two obvious questions.

1. Why would Trouba suddenly be more durable at ages 27-34 (his next contract), than he was from 19 to 26?

2. What exactly do we envision as the cost for Trouba? Not just to sign, but to trade for as well.

After all, if he's worth trading for and signing to a long-term extension as a number one defenseman, the cost to acquire him is going to be on par, correct?

 

[DanielBrassard]

The comparison isn’t contract situation, it’s player durability. We’re all on board the McDonagh is currently breaking down, why is the guy averaging less games per season seen as more of a sure thing?

Well I don't know if Trouba is more of a sure thing. I understand he has missed a healthy amount of games but he also just played a full season this past season including playoffs. I am willing to take the risk, I think he's worth it.

 

[ETTER DE]

We didn't even have a first round pick in 2016. At most, our rebuilding could be said to have begun 22 months ago with the Stepan trade. Either way, all our top ceiling guys are teenagers. It's extremely early and we should not be signing UFAs who are 6-10 years older than the guys who will hopefully be the core when we can contend for the Cup.

In 2015/2016 the top 9 consisted of Fast,Hayes,Lindberg,Miller,Zuccarello,Nash,Stepan,Kreider and Brassard. Eric Staal was acquired on TDL. Of these 10 players, two has left every season since then. 2016 Brassard and Staal 2017 Lindberg and Stepan 2018 Nash and Miller 2019 Zuccarello and Hayes. Fast and Kreider is still here but looking at the above you would think they will be traded 2020 TDL

On D there was Boyle,Mcdonagh,Staal,Klein,Girardi and Yandle.
Boyle and Yandle left in 2016, Girardi and Klein in 2017, McDonagh in 2018. Staal is still here. The rebuild has gone on since 2016. I dont think anyone can argue with that.

 

[Edge]

Well I don't know if Trouba is more of a sure thing. I understand he has missed a healthy amount of games but he also just played a full season this past season including playoffs. I am willing to take the risk, I think he's worth it.

I think I could be persuaded if he was a free agent, maybe. And I fully admit that it's a big maybe for me.

But we have to trade for him first, and then still sign him.

So what exactly are we giving up for him? Because it's not just a contract and cap space.

It's going to cost us.

 

[SA16]

While they are cheap, they are teenagers who need to be sheltered to produce even a fraction of what they will do later. Their second contracts won't be huge unless they massively exceed expectations. They are cost-controlled into the second half of the next decade. There's a big difference between a UFA contract and a bridge contract, or even a UFA contracts vs a long term contract that spans both the bridge and the UFA years. That's how you get McDonagh for $4.5 or Zibanejad for $5. When you sign straight up UFAs, they no longer worry about how their career or injuries will go before they get cash in, so they get crazy money. Everyone expects UFAs to sign for RFA money, then looks shocked on July 2. Every year, same thing. Let me repeat this again: to sign a high-level UFA that every team would want, you have to offer him a contract that the other 30 GMs look at and think, "I wouldn't want that guy for free with that kind of a contract." Because so long as there's even 1 other GM who thinks your offer is not insane, he will keep on bidding to sign this player.

P.S. Is it fun for you to change every time you quote me from beacon to bacon? I'm just curious about the entertainment value in that. Unless you're 12 years old?

Here is where you are wrong. Here is the stats of every number 1 or 2 overall forward taken since 2008:

They averaged 67 points in year 1 and then 68 in year 2. That is a first line level Pretty much of them had at least adequate production outside of the one bust in the group Yakupov. Yakupov is the only one to score at under a 50 point pace in Y3. Even if some of them broke out later (like the Avalanche/Barkov) that production is coming at an absolute bargain price of an ELC. That is why it is important to go for it now. We are getting Kakko who should be expected to score at a similar rate to every other player who went in this range and he will be way underpaid for the first 3 years of his deal. You can supplement him right away with some top players which you will not be able to do in Y4.

And I don't know why it does this I just hit the reply button.

 

[DanielBrassard]

I think I could be persuaded if he was a free agent, maybe. And I fully admit that it's a big maybe for me.

But we have to trade for him first, and then still sign him.

So what exactly are we giving up for him? Because it's not just a contract and cap space.

It's going to cost us.

I would give up WPG's 1st+ if they want futures, if they want Skjei I'd do that too. Maybe Howden/Andersson/Hajek/Rykov is of interest. Only guys I would be reluctant to move are Chytil/VK/ADA/Buch/Miller.

It's an interesting question but who can say for sure.

 

[TheTakedown]

i dont think smith plays another game for us. hes bought out.

No point in buying him out...

Buyout:

BUYOUT HISTORY (3)				2019-20	2020-21	2021-22	2022-23	2023-24	2024-25	2025-26
Smith, Brendan	$970,833	$3,145,833	$1,145,833	$1,145,833

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Buried in Minors:

BURIED (2 - $4,100,000)		POSITION	AGE	2019-20	2020-21	2021-22	2022-23	2023-24	2024-25	2025-26
Smith, Brendan		D, LW	30	$3,275,000	$3,275,000	UFA

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Save $3M in cap this coming season to lose $1.1M in cap for 2 seasons after next season... No tHanks

 

[offdacrossbar]

Doesn’t this just go to show it might not be wise to trade for and sign Trouba long term?

im still not seeing an underlying reason not to.

his 18-19 season directly addressed the main concern @Edge has which is his health. he played 82 games. he had his best season points wise- by far, as well.

other than he may get hurt. he may miss games. he may not be a #1 he may be rick nash.

im not hearing anything to sway me away from trading for this guy.

he may well be just another important part of the rebuild.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

In 2015/2016 the top 9 consisted of Fast,Hayes,Lindberg,Miller,Zuccarello,Nash,Stepan,Kreider and Brassard. Eric Staal was acquired on TDL. Of these 10 players, two has left every season since then. 2016 Brassard and Staal 2017 Lindberg and Stepan 2018 Nash and Miller 2019 Zuccarello and Hayes. Fast and Kreider is still here but looking at the above you would think they will be traded 2020 TDL

On D there was Boyle,Mcdonagh,Staal,Klein,Girardi and Yandle.
Boyle and Yandle left in 2016, Girardi and Klein in 2017, McDonagh in 2018. Staal is still here. The rebuild has gone on since 2016. I dont think anyone can argue with that.

You can't redefine what a rebuild is just to fit your narrative.


The 2016-17 team had these guys on it:

Hank
Stepan
Girardi
McDonagh
Staal
Klein
Kreider
Zucccarello
Nash
Fast
Miller

Who were all on the team when they went to the finals in 2014. Thats the entire "core", we lost a pretty big chunk of that team the following summer (B.Boyle, Stralman, Dorsett, Carcillo, none of whom were core guys, though Stralman should have been.)


Since the letter we've pushed out:

McDonagh
Hayes
Zuccarello
Miller
Nash

Along with other less heralded players like Grabner, Holden and McQuaid.

I won't include Spooner since that was a 1 for 1 with an NHL player coming back.

Thats 8 NHL bodies moved via trade since Feb 2018.Thats when the rebuild started, any arguments otherwise are just mental gymnastics.

I won't buy the Stepan trade as the start of it all either since they went out and signed Shattenkirk almost immediately. That was the start of a failed attempt at a retool, which was scrapped pretty quickly.

Anyway, this can be answered with just this:

They gave Hank the option to leave after the letter was sent. If that doesn't signify a rebuild, I don't know what does.

 

[LORDE]

What I was calling ridiculous was saying "if we buy out Smith without worrying about the cap hit, that means we can buy out anyone!"

I do know that $1m in available cap space has never once been the difference in getting who we wanted and not in the entire time the cap has existed and, as that cap has gone up, it's meant less and less. People wring their hands over it constantly, but it's rarely the issue people think it is.

The same could be said about a player who isn't part of the future and while we are bad doesn't really matter all that much. Staal is as big of a problem, so is Kirk. They're all gone right when we need them to be.

 

[Beacon]

Here is where you are wrong. Here is the stats of every number 1 or 2 overall forward taken since 2008:

They averaged 67 points in year 1 and then 68 in year 2. That is a first line level Pretty much of them had at least adequate production outside of the one bust in the group Yakupov. Even if some of them broke out later (like the Avalanche/Barkov) that production is coming at an absolute bargain price of an ELC. That is why it is important to go for it now. We are getting Kakko who should be expected to score at a similar rate to every other player who went in this range and he will be way underpaid for the first 3 years of his deal. You can supplement him right away with some top players which you will not be able to do in Y4.

And I don't know why it does this I just hit the reply button.

Kakko probably will be really good in 3 years. But again, by that point we have Hank, Kreider, Staal, Shatty, Smith off the books. That's just a shade off $30 and even this year we didn't use $4 of the cap, so it's almost $34. The last 3 years it was $8, so let's add that and it gets us to $42. Let's say Kakko becomes as good as Draisatl and gets $8.5. Still over $33 left after paying Kakko. I expect that guys like Chytil and Kravtsov will get raises of $3-5. Butcher will get paid more than he did last year by a few million. Some players will get paid, but then again, guys they replace like Fast, Names, Vesey will no longer be paid, so we'll call it even. There's no cap problem. We will still be in position to sign a star UFA (maybe even 2 of them) in 2-4 years when our prospects are closer to their prime.

Ok, but what if Kakko, Chytil, Kravtsov and K'Andre all turn into superstars who all will command $8-9 contracts even as RFAs (yeah right!). Ok, then we do not need to bring in UFAs because we are loaded anyway. You probably don't want to be stuck with a 30+ UFA and no cap space to re-sign a homegrown superstar RFA in his early 20s.

 

[offdacrossbar]

I think I could be persuaded if he was a free agent, maybe. And I fully admit that it's a big maybe for me.

But we have to trade for him first, and then still sign him.

So what exactly are we giving up for him? Because it's not just a contract and cap space.

It's going to cost us.

#20.

kreider for trouba. thats the bones of the deal.

the jets have niku, samberg and poolman all ready for a nhl job.

 

[Edge]

I would give up WPG's 1st+ if they want futures, if they want Skjei I'd do that too. Maybe Howden/Andersson/Hajek/Rykov is of interest. Only guys I would be reluctant to move are Chytil/VK/ADA/Buch/Miller.

It's an interesting question but who can say for sure.

That's where it gets tricky for me.

I can't see them going for Skjei and their first back. I don't think packages based around Rykov or even Howden get it done.

But then we run into the same problem, I don't see this team being at a point where it starts handing back firsts and prospects. At this point in time, that seems counter-intuitive to me.

And if we're talking about something like a first + Howden + Hajek, then what was the point in trading McD in the first place? We essentially just kicked the can down the road to find ourselves in a similar situation 24 months later. Or more importantly, why would Winnipeg trade for them at this point.