Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXXIV

[Ola]

[from the draft thread]

Gorton clearly understands that Pionk has been overtasked by the coach.

He was pitched as a potential #5 jitterbug who can play the 2nd PP unit as a necessity, but we've been playing him like Michael Roszival out there.

In a more reasonable role I think he'll do a lot better.

Yup, and we have been saying the same thing. The problem is lack of alternatives. TDA has come in and done a good job at times. But playing TDA as a shut down guy against the best of the East night after night is also far from optimal. Shatty can't handle it.

We need to move Shatty and get a D that can take some defensive shifts.

 

[True Blue]

We need to move Shatty and get a D that can take some defensive shifts.

I think that is easier said than done. If Gorton could have, he would have (I believe). Providing he agrees to waive his NTC, a $6.5 third pairing PP specialist defenseman who can't play a lick of defense just does not sound attractive. Even with half retained. Now knock the price tag down to $2-$2.5, and you may get it done. But then the NMC becomes a sticking point.

I think Shattenkirk, if he can be traded at all, will be done not until end of next year, with lots of retention. At least based on what his play has been.

 

[bobbop]

Your point was cautioning that you could walk away with a non-elite player at the top of the draft, but you still have a better chance of walking away with an elite player at the top of the draft than you do either a)later on in the draft (15-30)or b)getting that player in free agency (which costs a heck of a lot more in the long run). Further, to my point, it's quite clear that Strome should not have been picked there, but if you look at the Islander's drafting in the first round for the majority of the cap era, it makes sense. Good scouting departments aren't going to make that mistake.

Not to mention the fact that the draft you picked, 2011, is one of the worst in recent history, and was thought as much at the time, and 2019 and 2020 have so far been universally praised for being strong.

The Rangers are going to be bad again next year. Their focus is already on the top of the 2020 draft.

Hindsight is 20-20. Go back and look at the pre-draft ratings for that draft. Strome was projected to go in the general area where he was picked. Schiefele was a late riser. If I remember right, Bleacher Report had Schiefele to the Rangers at #15. (The JT Miller pick) The 2011 draft was average with plenty of good NHL players in the first round.

Good scouting departments make mistakes all of the time. There's certainly skill involved but no one hits on every pick, every year. Not even close.

 

[TheGortonConspiracy]

For those interested in UFA signings: If Panarin signs elsewhere, is there interest in Skinner?

 

[FIRE DRURY]

For those interested in UFA signings: If Panarin signs elsewhere, is there interest in Skinner?

Nope.

 

[Ghost of jas]

For those interested in UFA signings: If Panarin signs elsewhere, is there interest in Skinner?

Not in the slightest

 

[bobbop]

For those interested in UFA signings: If Panarin signs elsewhere, is there interest in Skinner?

No

 

[Lays]

The Panarin argument has been exhausted, but FWIW, there's a reason 2 teams will have let him go. He's quite clearly not a guy you build around.

Panarin plays a complete game with effort and seems to be very well liked by his teammates. Seems like a great guy. Chicago only let go of him because Toews and Kane reportedly missed having Saad on the team. Jackets want to keep Panarin but he doesn’t want to stay. Dumb comment

Oilers fan here.

Would you guys consider a deal around the Jets 1st + Buchnevich for the Oilers 1st + 3rd?


Ours is likely to be in the 7th-10th range.

I would do this

 

[Off Sides]

The Jets build is really the one the Rangers should be looking at emulating. They drafted well with their own early picks, they stayed out of the colossal UFA market signings, they made some good trades and extended those players.

Rangers have had more picks, some of them just as early, some others who in a hypothetical redraft would be drafted earlier and they still have some extra picks on top of their own for this draft and the next one too.

They've accelerated their rebuild by trading for some already drafted prospects who also would have likely gone a little higher if there were a hypothetically redraft of their draft year.

If one likes where the Jets are at, and if the Rangers draft well and make some good trades, give them three years and they will be at a stage of something similar to where the Jets were two and three seasons ago.

Sure that requires some faith that they will actually draft and trade well, which is basically what a rebuild is and would be true for any other method of team building. If they are not going to get this rebuild right primarily through drafting and trading, then why would there be much faith they'd get any other building method right?

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

The Jets build is really the one the Rangers should be looking at emulating. They drafted well with their own early picks, they stayed out of the colossal UFA market signings, they made some good trades and extended those players.

Rangers have had more picks, some of them just as early, some others who in a hypothetical redraft would be drafted earlier and they still have some extra picks on top of their own for this draft and the next one too.

They've accelerated their rebuild by trading for some already drafted prospects who also would have likely gone a little higher if there were a hypothetically redraft of their draft year.

If one likes where the Jets are at, and if the Rangers draft well and make some good trades, give them three years and they will be at a stage of something similar to where the Jets were two and three seasons ago.

Sure that requires some faith that they will actually draft and trade well, which is basically what a rebuild is and would be true for any other method of team building. If they are not going to get this rebuild right primarily through drafting and trading, then why would there be much faith they'd get any other building method right?

Jets stayed out of the UFA market and big time trade market because no one wants to play there . They’re very lucky they nailed their high picks because that’s their only option. I don’t trust the Rangers to draft that well, plus where are we going to get our Blake Wheeler and Dustin Byfuglien from? Plus you know the Rangers can not resist the UFas

 

[Mikos87]

When I look at this roster for next year I don't see a lot of forward help coming in next year from the kids unless it's Kravstov as a 19 year old. IMO the team needs to insulate the kids instead of throwing them over, Quinn has done a nice job of turning Buchnevich around, but given the holes in the line-up the same will be needed for Anderson, Howden and Chytil if their productivity continues to remain low.

I for one believe that management has done a poor job of building attainable depth. Meaning getting bottom of the line-up, and 4A guys on short term deals to insulate the roster. I feel that this should be a major effort in free agency, even if it means overpaying for a guy that's going to spend the bulk of their time in the AHL. Why? It allows you to be in a position where the kids have to earn their ice-time, and play proper roles, and earn their time in the NHL.

My targets for a bottoms-up build this off-season include the following:

4th line UFAs
2 of the following
Hathaway
Acciari
Bellmare

4A Call-Ups
2 of the following
Barber
Brodzinski
Carr

I would also trade Smith for Sutter. It's an easier buyout after next year, and Sutter is an LTIR hit at this stage. It will give you cap flexibility to take on a contract for a 2020 draft asset/prospect mid-year. Smith for all of his warts, does play... and while he's been a trooper playing wing (poorly), that's a waste of a $4.35 hit when it can be freed up on a LTIR and buyout.

Worst case: Sutter plays 4th line center, and he's capable of that.

So the 4th line unit, and depth call-ups should be the following:

Lemeiux-Bellmare/Accriari-Hathaway
LTIR- Sutter

AHL Top Line
Carr-Center Prospect-Barber/Brodzinski

Whichever prospect is not playing well enough with the big club centers the AHL top line. Even if that's Chytil, Howden, or Andersson, it forces internal competition to push the kids. We've seen slumps, and poor efforts from all 3. This is what happens they are handed out ice-time.

 

[Off Sides]

Jets stayed out of the UFA market and big time trade market because no one wants to play there . They’re very lucky they nailed their high picks because that’s their only option. I don’t trust the Rangers to draft that well, plus where are we going to get our Blake Wheeler and Dustin Byfuglien from? Plus you know the Rangers can not resist the UFas

Jets traded for Wheeler and Buff, why would it be impossible for the Rangers to make some trades eventually too? They already did with Zbad, ADA, Howden, Hajek, Lindgren, Lemieux who have all looked good

And what is wrong with the Rangers drafting? The prospects like Chytil, Lias, are going to make some progress, three or four of the prospects the Rangers took last draft have all done really well in the D+1 season. Buch is making progress, some others we have not even seen in the KHL. Georgiev looks pretty good.

I think people are looking at this whole thing as much bleaker than it really is and that all is even before whatever they add over the next two drafts.

 

[Ola]

Jets stayed out of the UFA market and big time trade market because no one wants to play there . They’re very lucky they nailed their high picks because that’s their only option. I don’t trust the Rangers to draft that well, plus where are we going to get our Blake Wheeler and Dustin Byfuglien from? Plus you know the Rangers can not resist the UFas

Chevy has also signed some sick contracts. They could easily have that roster at a 12+m higher cost with a worse negotiator as a GM. Gorton hasn’t proven to be able to get that done yet.

Depth is great, but only if you aren’t paying market value for it.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Jets stayed out of the UFA market and big time trade market because no one wants to play there . They’re very lucky they nailed their high picks because that’s their only option. I don’t trust the Rangers to draft that well, plus where are we going to get our Blake Wheeler and Dustin Byfuglien from? Plus you know the Rangers can not resist the UFas

I dunno about you, but I think Zibanejad looks pretty good.

 

[I Eat Crow]

When I look at this roster for next year I don't see a lot of forward help coming in next year from the kids unless it's Kravstov as a 19 year old. IMO the team needs to insulate the kids instead of throwing them over, Quinn has done a nice job of turning Buchnevich around, but given the holes in the line-up the same will be needed for Anderson, Howden and Chytil if their productivity continues to remain low.

I for one believe that management has done a poor job of building attainable depth. Meaning getting bottom of the line-up, and 4A guys on short term deals to insulate the roster. I feel that this should be a major effort in free agency, even if it means overpaying for a guy that's going to spend the bulk of their time in the AHL. Why? It allows you to be in a position where the kids have to earn their ice-time, and play proper roles, and earn their time in the NHL.

My targets for a bottoms-up build this off-season include the following:

4th line UFAs
2 of the following
Hathaway
Acciari
Bellmare

4A Call-Ups
2 of the following
Barber
Brodzinski
Carr

I would also trade Smith for Sutter. It's an easier buyout after next year, and Sutter is an LTIR hit at this stage. It will give you cap flexibility to take on a contract for a 2020 draft asset/prospect mid-year. Smith for all of his warts, does play... and while he's been a trooper playing wing (poorly), that's a waste of a $4.35 hit when it can be freed up on a LTIR and buyout.

Worst case: Sutter plays 4th line center, and he's capable of that.

So the 4th line unit, and depth call-ups should be the following:

Lemeiux-Bellmare/Accriari-Hathaway
LTIR- Sutter

AHL Top Line
Carr-Center Prospect-Barber/Brodzinski

Whichever prospect is not playing well enough with the big club centers the AHL top line. Even if that's Chytil, Howden, or Andersson, it forces internal competition to push the kids. We've seen slumps, and poor efforts from all 3. This is what happens they are handed out ice-time.

This is an excellent post. Lias got his time in the AHL, but there were stretches in which both Chytil and Howden should have been sent down. What are the options after them? Lettieri? Lol. Smith at forward? Please.

 

[East Coast Bias]

I dunno about you, but I think Zibanejad looks pretty good.

He looks great. Shame he's probably going to be in his last year of his contract and 28 by the time this team is ready to compete. At best.

 

[eco's bones]

For those interested in UFA signings: If Panarin signs elsewhere, is there interest in Skinner?

Skinner's had numerous concussions over the course of his career. It would not be wise to give him a long term deal which is without a doubt something he's going to want. Like the player--don't like the injury history---avoid.

 

[DanielBrassard]

For those interested in UFA signings: If Panarin signs elsewhere, is there interest in Skinner?

Nah, Panarin/Karlsson or bust.

 

[bobbop]

The Jets build is really the one the Rangers should be looking at emulating. They drafted well with their own early picks, they stayed out of the colossal UFA market signings, they made some good trades and extended those players.

Rangers have had more picks, some of them just as early, some others who in a hypothetical redraft would be drafted earlier and they still have some extra picks on top of their own for this draft and the next one too.

They've accelerated their rebuild by trading for some already drafted prospects who also would have likely gone a little higher if there were a hypothetically redraft of their draft year.

If one likes where the Jets are at, and if the Rangers draft well and make some good trades, give them three years and they will be at a stage of something similar to where the Jets were two and three seasons ago.

Sure that requires some faith that they will actually draft and trade well, which is basically what a rebuild is and would be true for any other method of team building. If they are not going to get this rebuild right primarily through drafting and trading, then why would there be much faith they'd get any other building method right?

The Jets went six years without winning a playoff game (five years missing and one first round sweep) not to mention the 11 years preceeding that where Atlanta did not win a playoff game (missed 10 years and one first round sweep) Some of the Jet players go all the way back to the Atlanta days and others were obtained in trade for 2011 Atlanta players.

At my age, I'm not signing up for the Jets "rebuild".

And I can assure you, neither is The Garden. Gorton and company would be long gone if this rebuild stretched that long.

 

[eco's bones]

Something to think about if you're picking 6th or 7th--the likelihood is pretty good that in a strong draft you're going to get a really good player. OTOH so are the 6 teams picking before your team and maybe several other teams after and it somewhat comes down to you making the best choice possible and some of them flubbing theirs a bit for you to gain any advantage over just those teams. If you do the flubbing though.......To really go places at least one (if not two) of the guys will have to go on a Hall of Fame kind of career and become the main driver(s) that get us to true contender-hood.

Now a bunch of the 1st's we've had the past couple years and are going to draft the next couples years if all taken together and if most of them work out should in time with good development and coaching at least get us to the playoffs but if none of them really becomes a big star it's not likely going to be enough. Panarin's a legit 1st line wing. Karlsson is a legit #1D who is getting close to old and very injury prone. Karlsson going to the Hall of Fame one day. Panarin's more like a maybe still but he is a bit younger.

 

[Fitzy]

Just my two cents, but I think they see 2020-21 as the return to the playoffs season.

It would take a lot of pulling to make this team playoff ready in one offseason, and it would take some moves that would put a dent in future development. The defense is just too shambolic, and until some of the forward prospects start producing, the loss of Hayes and Zucc has thinned that area substantially as well.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

I dunno about you, but I think Zibanejad looks pretty good.

Zibanejad is having a similar (slightly better) season to Wheeler’s first in Winnipeg.

Wheeler is 32 and about to break 90 points for the second season in a row, so I can’t say I’m worried about Zibanejad being “too old” before we’re good again.

 

[DanielBrassard]

Just my two cents, but I think they see 2020-21 as the return to the playoffs season.

It would take a lot of pulling to make this team playoff ready in one offseason, and it would take some moves that would put a dent in future development. The defense is just too shambolic, and until some of the forward prospects start producing, the loss of Hayes and Zucc has thinned that area substantially as well.

I would agree with the timeline, at least it is the most realistic timeline no matter what the Rangers do in the offseason. Even if they sign a Panarin/Karlsson it's still going to be a transition type season in 19-20 unless we see major improvements from our rookies.

 

[Lindberg Cheese]

If we go à FA F route and Panarin is not avail I’d look to Anders or Brock and graduate one of them from the bridge and tunnel crowd

 

[GeorgeKaplan]