Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXXIV

[GoAwayPanarin]

If we go à FA F route and Panarin is not avail I’d look to Anders or Brock and graduate one of them from the bridge and tunnel crowd

Anders will re-sign on the Island and Brock Nelson would be a disaster.

 

[duhmetreE]

For those interested in UFA signings: If Panarin signs elsewhere, is there interest in Skinner?

Hell to the no.

I can only speak for myself, Panarin is a player that does not hit UFA often. I do not want a team of UFAs. I do not want anyone else, if we can't land him. I just want the elite one.

The only other UFA I'd look at, is Stralman ( on a 2 year deal? )... contingent on getting rid of Shattenkirk

 

[Barnaby]

Of course they'd be more confident - would you be more confident playing with Sydney Crosby or some 3rd line schlub center? I think Buchnevich would benefit greatly from playing with Panarin - but that's just a hunch and I'm still not advocating for it. I'm 50/50 as to whether they should pursue him or not but I'm not going to ignore the positive aspects of bringing him here.

That's a bit of an exaggeration. Your statement was playing with Zib/Panarin or Zib/Namestnikov. Either way he's getting top minutes with a top center. Obviously he'll probably produce more with Panarin, but I don't buy that he's going to jump into some stratosphere of being a better player. What if Panarin winds up taking his PP time? You can make an argument that Buch might be better off being 'the guy.' You're really changing the argument if your statement is now he'll be more confident with Sid Crosby than a scrub. I have no idea where that came from.

I'm not saying that Panarin won't offer any positives to this roster. I just think that contract and his timeline don't fit the long term plan of this team.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I’ve yet to see a good argument for Panarin.

One exists for EK though.

 

[Off Sides]

The Jets went six years without winning a playoff game (five years missing and one first round sweep) not to mention the 11 years preceeding that where Atlanta did not win a playoff game (missed 10 years and one first round sweep) Some of the Jet players go all the way back to the Atlanta days and others were obtained in trade for 2011 Atlanta players.

At my age, I'm not signing up for the Jets "rebuild".

And I can assure you, neither is The Garden. Gorton and company would be long gone if this rebuild stretched that long.

Rangers are already further along in their rebuild than the Jets were when they moved.

Zbad was drafted in 2011, 2021 will be a decade.

 

[Fitzy]

I would agree with the timeline, at least it is the most realistic timeline no matter what the Rangers do in the offseason. Even if they sign a Panarin/Karlsson it's still going to be a transition type season in 19-20 unless we see major improvements from our rookies.

My main hesitancy on those guys (And why im still agnostic on the UFA market this year) is that the 2020 draft is supposed to be damn good, and I'm not thrilled about the prospect of picking 14th in a non playoff season.

 

[duhmetreE]

I’ve yet to see a good argument for Panarin.

One exists for EK though.

Anyone that exists for EK is relevant for Panarin.

EK scares me though, a ton of mileage on those legs.

 

[haohmaru]

That's a bit of an exaggeration. Your statement was playing with Zib/Panarin or Zib/Namestnikov. Either way he's getting top minutes with a top center. Obviously he'll probably produce more with Panarin, but I don't buy that he's going to jump into some stratosphere of being a better player. What if Panarin winds up taking his PP time? You can make an argument that Buch might be better off being 'the guy.' You're really changing the argument if your statement is now he'll be more confident with Sid Crosby than a scrub. I have no idea where that came from.

I'm not saying that Panarin won't offer any positives to this roster. I just think that contract and his timeline don't fit the long term plan of this team.

Namestnikov is a third line player. Panarin is an elite 1st line player. There's nothing exaggerating about it - Panarin is more of a playmaker than a scorer, though he can score. Maybe Kane would've been a better example to throw your way since he's a winger? Again, it's a hunch and we'll probably never know.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Anyone that exists for EK is relevant for Panarin.

EK scares me though, a ton of mileage on those legs.

Not at all.

True top pair D are much tougher to land than wingers, he has an actual leadership background and is the best player at his position in this generation.

None of those apply to Panarin. The “these players are never available as an UFA” applies to EK more so than anyone in the cap era.

He’s ultra risky and I’d rather stay away entirely because of the miles you mentioned, plus the dollars or would take but he’s a better player and really would fit an organizational need.

 

[Off Sides]

Just my two cents, but I think they see 2020-21 as the return to the playoffs season.

It would take a lot of pulling to make this team playoff ready in one offseason, and it would take some moves that would put a dent in future development. The defense is just too shambolic, and until some of the forward prospects start producing, the loss of Hayes and Zucc has thinned that area substantially as well.

I don't think that expectation is far off.

2021-22 will be the first season past the cap hits to Lundqvist, Staal, Shattenkirk, Smith should they not buy them out or trade them prior.

Will also be the first round of what could be significant entry contracts ending, where they have to choose between long term and bridges.

If they keep their cap space open, they can pretty much do whatever they want that off-season with both those 2nd contracts as well as go UFA shopping if they think they need to.

At that point we are basically talking about a decade worth or rebuilding in terms of drafted players.

From the 2011 draft until the 2020 draft equates to ten years of drafting, every player besides Lundqvist, Kreider, Smith, Shattenkirk, Staal, Fast, Beleskey fits into that ten year timeline.

I have no idea why the Rangers would be lining up things like that unless that was the basic outline, use the end dates of those contracts, the begin dates of new ones, factor in expansion and the CBA ending pretty much right then as well, and it sure seems to make a lot of sense to me whey they'd structure it all as such.

 

[Gardner McKay]

The Jets build is really the one the Rangers should be looking at emulating. They drafted well with their own early picks, they stayed out of the colossal UFA market signings, they made some good trades and extended those players.

Rangers have had more picks, some of them just as early, some others who in a hypothetical redraft would be drafted earlier and they still have some extra picks on top of their own for this draft and the next one too.

They've accelerated their rebuild by trading for some already drafted prospects who also would have likely gone a little higher if there were a hypothetically redraft of their draft year.

If one likes where the Jets are at, and if the Rangers draft well and make some good trades, give them three years and they will be at a stage of something similar to where the Jets were two and three seasons ago.

Sure that requires some faith that they will actually draft and trade well, which is basically what a rebuild is and would be true for any other method of team building. If they are not going to get this rebuild right primarily through drafting and trading, then why would there be much faith they'd get any other building method right?

Respectfully, I disagree with every word of this post and it is nothing more than the grass is always greener mentality. Look at what the Jets have now so they must have done something right.

No. They didn't. Atlanta for years FUBAR'd their talent. Bad trades. Bad drafting. When you are bad for that many years in a row and miss on that many picks, eventually the pendulum swings the other way and you get lucky on a few. They are a team that had no plan, with a GM in Waddell who couldn't have done a worse job if he tried. Then, you have Dudley who was desperate to get the team back in the playoffs at all costs and went hard after Ladd and Byfuglien (when they had no business doing so). Dudley got axed when the team went to Winnipeg and they proceeded to hit on a few consecutive draft picks with Scheifele being the most important. Cheveldayoff IMO has done a sub par job managing that franchise since he took over and botched the Trouba contract situation and is now going to be paying for it.

Not a model I want to emulate.

 

[duhmetreE]

Not at all.

True top pair D are much tougher to land than wingers, he has an actual leadership background and is the best player at his position in this generation.

None of those apply to Panarin. The “these players are never available as an UFA” applies to EK more so than anyone in the cap era.

He’s ultra risky and I’d rather stay away entirely because of the miles you mentioned, plus the dollars or would take but he’s a better player and really would fit an organizational need.

I'm just looking at the macro sense of it. Elite players are hard to come by, regardless of position. In a vacuum, EK is better.

 

[DanielBrassard]

My main hesitancy on those guys (And why im still agnostic on the UFA market this year) is that the 2020 draft is supposed to be damn good, and I'm not thrilled about the prospect of picking 14th in a non playoff season.

I understand the sentiment and it's a very fair point, as a Panarin/Karlsson advocate it's probably the thing I am most wary of when it comes to signing either.

 

[Off Sides]

Respectfully, I disagree with every word of this post and it is nothing more than the grass is always greener mentality. Look at what the Jets have now so they must have done something right.

No. They didn't. Atlanta for years FUBAR'd their talent. Bad trades. Bad drafting. When you are bad for that many years in a row and miss on that many picks, eventually the pendulum swings the other way and you get lucky on a few. They are a team that had no plan, with a GM in Waddell who couldn't have done a worse job if he tried. Then, you have Dudley who was desperate to get the team back in the playoffs at all costs and went hard after Ladd and Byfuglien (when they had no business doing so). Dudley got axed when the team went to Winnipeg and they proceeded to hit on a few consecutive draft picks with Scheifele being the most important. Cheveldayoff IMO has done a sub par job managing that franchise since he took over and botched the Trouba contract situation and is now going to be paying for it.

Not a model I want to emulate.

I stated the Jets, not the Thrashers.

And I think you are missing a key point, the Rangers are not taking as long because they sold all this stuff, received back extra picks and already drafted prospects. They are already further along than the Jets were when they moved.

As far as Trouba, how can we know what his intentions were, some players like him, ROR, Hayes seem to be intent on getting to UFA as soon as they possibly can rather than signing anything long term that cuts the team any sort of discount.

They've not only hit on a couple 1st round drafts, they hit on pretty much every one of them since they've been the Jets, that is probably a little more than luck.

 

[Gardner McKay]

I stated the Jets, not the Thrashers.

And I think you are missing a key point, the Rangers are not taking as long because they sold all this stuff, received back extra picks and already drafted prospects. They are already further along than the Jets were when they moved.

As far as Trouba, how can we know what his intentions were, some players like him, ROR, Hayes seem to be intent on getting to UFA as soon as they possibly can rather than signing anything long term that cuts the team any sort of discount.

They've not only hit on a couple 1st round drafts, they hit on pretty much every one of them since they've been the Jets, that is probably a little more than luck.

They are the same organization. The 7th OV pick that was used for Scheifele was earned by the Thrashers IIRC. It is impossible to discuss the Jets and disregard their history in Atlanta.

 

[duhmetreE]

There is no 'right' way in rebuilding/building a team. Finding talent and filling depth roles can happen in many ways.

If there's one team I'd like to copy, it'd be TB/BOS.. In as finding top-line talent in the 2nd and 3rd round. Also they're not scared to lock up most of their talent, long-term, creating value in the long run... but it's mostly just their scouting

The only thing I'd be adamantly against, is giving bottom6 players and 3rd pairing 'defense'man big money.

Give me a Kucherov/Point or Bergeron/Marchand from the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

Gardner’s obvious disdain for Cheveldayoff aside, I think you’re underselling what the Jets have done in the first round.

They’ve NAILED every pick since 2011. Scheifele, Trouba, Morrissey, Ehlers, Connor, Laine, and Vesalainen. Their worst pick thus far has been Stanley, and IMO you’re allowed one wtf pick with a track record like that. Just absolutely f***ing nuts how studly their drafting in the first round has been.

 

[Off Sides]

They are the same organization. The 7th OV pick that was used for Scheifele was earned by the Thrashers IIRC. It is impossible to discuss the Jets and disregard their history in Atlanta.

Rangers changed GMs, eventually they sent out rebuilding letter. Yet prior to the letter they already made some rebuilding like moves.

The bigger difference, the Rangers seem to be able to use their later picks on stuff that ends up in the NHL more so than the Jets, and the Rangers sold stuff when it was still worth a pretty high return. Hence why their rebuild should not take a decade unless one wants to frame that decade starting with the 2011 draft, which started with a rebuilding like move, the Brassard for Zbad trade who was drafted in 2011.

 

[Off Sides]

Gardner’s obvious disdain for Cheveldayoff aside, I think you’re underselling what the Jets have done in the first round.

They’ve NAILED every pick since 2011. Scheifele, Trouba, Morrissey, Ehlers, Connor, Laine, and Vesalainen. Their worst pick thus far has been Stanley, and IMO you’re allowed one wtf pick with a track record like that. Just absolutely ****ing nuts how studly their drafting in the first round has been.

And I don't see why the Rangers can not replicate something similar, just do so in a lesser amount of time.

They may not get the 2nd overall pick as the Jets did, (maybe they will) yet the Rangers have been drafting these past two drafts where Scheifele, Trouba, Morrissey, Connor, Ehlers, and Vesalainen were picked.

Yet unlike the Jets the Rangers also added in guys like ADA, Howden, Hajek, Rykov, Lindgren, Lemieux, Strome from trades

Signed Georgiev, Vesey and still have some leftovers from previous drafts, Skjei, Buch, Shesterkin.

Are going to pick again pretty earlier, have extra picks, maybe do the same next draft.

This in my opinion is an accelerated rebuild, that is a ton of prospects added that goes well beyond just about anything I can think of seeing any other team do. If some of those prospects turn out to be similar to Scheifele, Trouba, Morrissey, Ehlers, Connor, Laine, Vesalainen and they can trade for or sign a Wheeler and Buff or something similar, I guess I just don't see how that is all that far fetched.

I mean there is obviously no guarantee, yet I think there is a better chance of something like that happening than the Rangers drafting Crosby and Malkin or Kane and Toews like players in two consecutive drafts.

 

[Lundy HOF]

Gardner’s obvious disdain for Cheveldayoff aside, I think you’re underselling what the Jets have done in the first round.

They’ve NAILED every pick since 2011. Scheifele, Trouba, Morrissey, Ehlers, Connor, Laine, and Vesalainen. Their worst pick thus far has been Stanley, and IMO you’re allowed one wtf pick with a track record like that. Just absolutely ****ing nuts how studly their drafting in the first round has been.

To play Devil’s advocate, weren’t almost all of those top 10 picks? Not saying teams can’t botch them because it does happen but not sure it’s that impressive. Especially when you normalize for Laine since that was a layup.

As far as Chevy, he is too conservative for my taste but he isn’t a bad GM by any stretch, although he does get a 0/10 on Trouba unless he has magic beans to sign him long term in a place he very clearly doesn’t want to be.

 

[Gardner McKay]

Gardner’s obvious disdain for Cheveldayoff aside, I think you’re underselling what the Jets have done in the first round.

They’ve NAILED every pick since 2011. Scheifele, Trouba, Morrissey, Ehlers, Connor, Laine, and Vesalainen. Their worst pick thus far has been Stanley, and IMO you’re allowed one wtf pick with a track record like that. Just absolutely ****ing nuts how studly their drafting in the first round has been.

It isn't so much that I have a disdain for him as I do for the reputation that he has earned for doing very little IMO. Laine was a no brainer.

Also to @Lundy HOF point, they drafted in the top 10 for how many years in a row? Now, I will give credit because it is still highly possible to f*** up a top 10 pick. Look at Edmonton. But they are an organization that has been picking in the top 10 consistently since 1999. It was only a matter of time before things averaged out.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Gardner’s obvious disdain for Cheveldayoff aside, I think you’re underselling what the Jets have done in the first round.

They’ve NAILED every pick since 2011. Scheifele, Trouba, Morrissey, Ehlers, Connor, Laine, and Vesalainen. Their worst pick thus far has been Stanley, and IMO you’re allowed one wtf pick with a track record like that. Just absolutely ****ing nuts how studly their drafting in the first round has been.

Roslovic too.

There is no 'right' way in rebuilding/building a team. Finding talent and filling depth roles can happen in many ways.

If there's one team I'd like to copy, it'd be TB/BOS.. In as finding top-line talent in the 2nd and 3rd round. Also they're not scared to lock up most of their talent, long-term, creating value in the long run... but it's mostly just their scouting

The only thing I'd be adamantly against, is giving bottom6 players and 3rd pairing 'defense'man big money.

Give me a Kucherov/Point or Bergeron/Marchand from the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

Right way, maybe not, but there is a better way and a worse way.

Getting that kind of talent in those rounds does require some scouting but a ton of luck too. None of their scouts knew that Point would improve his skating a ton and become what he is now (or that Kucharov would be as good as he is, he was a good not great prospect coming into the league.) If they did, those guys would have gone much higher. They've done well outside of the draft though (Gourde and Johnson were excellent UDFA signings.)

We can all cross our fingers and hope for our later picks to wildly exceed expectations but thats not exactly a plan. The best way to land that type of talent is to pick high in the draft - Most top line players still come from those picks.

Also Tampa has a home grown 1OA and 2OA on their roster, can't forget that either.

They've more or less stayed away from the UFA's too, at least the big ticket ones - And thats a team that has been ready to win for a half decade.

 

[duhmetreE]

Roslovic too.



Right way, maybe not, but there is a better way and a worse way.

Getting that kind of talent in those rounds does require some scouting but a ton of luck too. None of their scouts knew that Point would improve his skating a ton and become what he is now (or that Kucharov would be as good as he is, he was a good not great prospect coming into the league.) If they did, those guys would have gone much higher. They've done well outside of the draft though (Gourde and Johnson were excellent UDFA signings.)

We can all cross our fingers and hope for our later picks to wildly exceed expectations but thats not exactly a plan. The best way to land that type of talent is to pick high in the draft - Most top line players still come from those picks.

Also Tampa has a home grown 1OA and 2OA on their roster, can't forget that either.

They've more or less stayed away from the UFA's too, at least the big ticket ones - And thats a team that has been ready to win for a half decade.

What about Boston?

I think you have it backwards. Crossing our fingers and hoping we get a top pick, is not a plan. It is out of our control. On the other hand, scouting and due diligence can land good hockey players in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

2014,2015 and 2016 is empty besides Shesty... Maybe Reunanen... Our 2nd and 3rd round hit rate need to be improved upon.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

What about Boston?

I think you have it backwards. Crossing our fingers and hoping we get a top pick, is not a plan. It is out of our control. On the other hand, scouting and due diligence can land good hockey players in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

2014,2015 and 2016 is empty besides Shesty... Maybe Reunanen... Our 2nd and 3rd round hit rate need to be improved upon.

The only really big UFA signing that contributed to their cup win was Chara.

Bergeron is arguably the best player to come out of the deepest draft of all time. It’d be great this team could pull a player like that out of the 2nd, but it doesn’t happen with regularity. Boston also whiffed massively in the 2015 draft. If we’re looking at recent history, They are not the template we want to follow.

Getting the #1 pick is out of this teams control, getting into the top 5-7 is not, most of the best players in the league still come from this group. Scouting is one thing but again, nailing the late round gems is more about actual luck then it is actual scouting.

But yeah, they need to find more players out of the late rounds, I just think that pointing to other teams as the template because they hit in a few is a poor way to go about it, especially when one of them has a 1OA and a 2OA playing huge roles for them and used a former 3OA in order to fill another need.

 

[Barnaby]

Give me a Kucherov/Point or Bergeron/Marchand from the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

If only the Rangers had thought of that! Just find stars in the middle rounds!

Of course you fail to mention Stamkos/Hedman.