Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXXIII

[DaBadGuy7]

I really don’t understand the desire about acquiring Panarin. He’s a really good player, but he’s not a player that eventually turn the fortune of the team into contender imo. If the Rangers were where the Leafs were a few years ago I would agree, but the fact is we aren’t. The Rangers have gone after FA after FA for years and it just hasn’t worked. I’m fine with being bad for another season if it means potentially getting another potential elite prospect. I just feel like Panarin would be like Gaborik, would put up good numbers but ultimately the Rangers didn’t really do much in the playoffs. That’s harsh, but that’s the ultimate way to judge these FA signings. Look I don’t like tanking, but the Rangers haven’t had an elite skater drafted and developed since Leetch and Rangers drafting record in the Sather era hasn’t been great at getting those types of talent.

 

[Edge]

The Sign Panarin argument is centered around the aim for the 2020-2021 season. That is when we are hoping a lot of our 1st round picks start to blossom. Again that is Chytil’s 3rd year full year. Possibly Kravtsov and Lias 2nd full year. Howden’s 3rd full year.

If those kids plus whomever we draft this year are not making the push by the 20-21 season then our scouting department has failed us. And those obviously are not our only prospects to choose from.

So signing Panarin is still a possibility to help join that group. I do not see his play dropping off for another 3-4 years, if being significant at all. You still need to surround the kids with proven elite talent. It would serve the kids well.

Again, I also think it comes down to how we define making a push.

There’s “better” and there’s “contending.”

I expect the 2020-21 team to be better, and starting to show signs of the team we hope them to be. But I think that’s the start of the next phase, not the middle of it.

This team will not go from basement dweller to true contender in a year — even with kids starting to find their own. They’ll maybe be earning their first playoff experiences, but I don’t think they’re going to quite be in their window yet or pushing.

I feel like there’s often a step or two missing when people talk about bottoming out and contending.

Let’s even use Chicago as an example. The bottom was 2006 and 2007 - the Toews and Kane drafts.

But there was an intermediary step between those drafts and the first cup in 2010.

So let’s assume we’re fortunate enough to take a similar path, you’d still be looking at that real push coming around 2023.

I feel like we keep missing that two year window that includes the climb from the bottom to the window.

 

[Edge]

You know we often talk about one guy or another being a top player past a certain age and there is often the assumption that the guy we want will be one of the players who aged well.

But food for thought, of the top 30 highest scoring players in the NHL right now, only one is older than 32 - Ovechkin.

And he’s 33.

Let’s assume the Rangers have a similar arch to Chicago, Panarin would be 32 when that window starts.

Starts.

 

[haohmaru]

You know we often talk about one guy or another being a top player past a certain age and there is often the assumption that the guy we want will be one of the players who aged well.

But food for thought, of the top 30 highest scoring players in the NHL right now, only one is older than 32 - Ovechkin.

And he’s 33.

Let’s assume the Rangers have a similar arch to Chicago, Panarin would be 32 when that window starts.

Starts.

At this point speculating when a window "starts" is pure conjecture without knowing how our draft picks develop, who is or isn't traded, who is or isn't signed, which UFA's we sign or don't sign, etc...

2023 is your guess. That's all it is.

 

[Bruner4329]

Sure, but I don’t think we have to be pessimistic about the kids on the team due to the team not competing in the NHL.

We were not competing at the AHL level either. The Hartford team is really bad this year and I have seen a handful of games. Some of the so called prospects including LA stunk the joint up. Not only did he not score a lot but his plus minus was horrible. Not what you want to see from one of your top prospects.

 

[RGY]

Again, I also think it comes down to how we define making a push.

There’s “better” and there’s “contending.”

I expect the 2020-21 team to be better, and starting to show signs of the team we hope them to be. But I think that’s the start of the next phase, not the middle of it.

This team will not go from basement dweller to true contender in a year — even with kids starting to find their own. They’ll maybe be earning their first playoff experiences, but I don’t think they’re going to quite be in their window yet or pushing.

I feel like there’s often a step or two missing when people talk about bottoming out and contending.

Let’s even use Chicago as an example. The bottom was 2006 and 2007 - the Toews and Kane drafts.

But there was an intermediary step between those drafts and the first cup in 2010.

So let’s assume we’re fortunate enough to take a similar path, you’d still be looking at that real push coming around 2023.

I feel like we keep missing that two year window that includes the climb from the bottom to the window.

Completely respect your opinion Edge.

Its a fair comparison.

Next year could be the stepping stone to the playoff birth the following year. You think 2023 based on 2010 Hawks. But you are citing the year it all came together for the Cup. However, in 2009 the Blackhawks went to the WCF and lost to the Wings. That would then mean the 2021-2022 season. One year past what I am claiming as the push year, not the cup contending year, but the push to be a playoff team and stay a playoff team for several years. Therefore 2021-2022 could be a year where we are real threat and it would be worth having Panarin mixed in with our group of kids imo

And we dont know what is going to happen with our prospects AND while we have not drafted a Kane or Toews at 1 and 3 overall respectively, we have loaded up with 1-3 round picks. More than the Hawks did. So maybe we dont have the generational talent of those two, we could be looking at a lot of really good players that gives us a very formidable group. Howden, Chytil, Andersson, Kravtsov. Then whomever we draft this year with our two 1sts. And of course thats just the forwards.

I just see the potential of the other side of it. The alternative path that could be taken and very wel could be successful.

 

[Edge]

At this point speculating when a window "starts" is pure conjecture without knowing how our draft picks develop, who is or isn't traded, who is or isn't signed, which UFA's we sign or don't sign, etc...

2023 is your guess. That's all it is.

Yes, but it’s an educated guess based on past timelines.

I get that guesses aren’t facts, but they’re not all just throwing darts at a board and seeing where they land either. We can use the past as a guideline.

Frankly, a lot fell into place quickly for Chicago. So 2023 isn’t the “late” guess. Frankly, it’s the early guess.

So anything faster than it is in real unchartered territory. Anything behind that schedule is probably more probable.

 

[offdacrossbar]

no panarin.

we are a long way away from maximizing the benefit that panarin brings.

he knows that too.

our window for panarin closed when we let shatty and smith climb thru it after failing to throw marc staal out of it.

 

[Edge]

Completely respect your opinion Edge.

Its a fair comparison.

Next year could be the stepping stone to the playoff birth the following year. You think 2023 based on 2010 Hawks. But you are citing the year it all came together for the Cup. However, in 2009 the Blackhawks went to the WCF and lost to the Wings. That would then mean the 2021-2022 season. One year past what I am claiming as the push year, not the cup contending year, but the push to be a playoff team and stay a playoff team for several years. Therefore 2021-2022 could be a year where we are real threat and it would be worth having Panarin mixed in with our group of kids imo

And we dont know what is going to happen with our prospects AND while we have not drafted a Kane or Toews at 1 and 3 overall respectively, we have loaded up with 1-3 round picks. More than the Hawks did. So maybe we dont have the generational talent of those two, we could be looking at a lot of really good players that gives us a very formidable group. Howden, Chytil, Andersson, Kravtsov. Then whomever we draft this year with our two 1sts. And of course thats just the forwards.

I just see the potential of the other side of it. The alternative path that could be taken and very wel could be successful.

Keeping in mind that the 2009 Chicago team also featured two guys taken with top 3 picks, a 24 year old fourth overall pick, and several guys approaching or in their peaks with Keith, Sharp and Havlat, and young talent emerging in Buff.

That would be a hell of a lot of ground for us to cover by 2021 or 2022.

Like I said, Chciago’s on the shorter end of the timetable. Matching that timetable would be impressive, exceeding it would be pretty monumental.

 

[Trxjw]

He adds another top line player that we dont have to draft that's how. Why is everyone focused on the Staal Smith shattenkirk contracts? Those guys are gone in a couple years along with Lundqvist, we will shed somewhere around 25 mill there. We will struggle to get to the floor after that not the ceiling.

Adding a top line player we don't have to draft isn't the same thing as accelerating everything by a year. It could take the team 2 years to find a 3rd top-line player, or they could draft one this June that steps in right away. Panarin is just a single player. He doesn't have some sort of sweeping impact on the roster or the direction of the franchise.

 

[haohmaru]

Yes, but it’s an educated guess based on past timelines.

I get that guesses aren’t facts, but they’re not all just throwing darts at a board and seeing where they land either. We can use the past as a guideline.

Frankly, a lot fell into place quickly for Chicago. So 2023 isn’t the “late” guess. Frankly, it’s the early guess.

So anything faster than it is in real unchartered territory. Anything behind that schedule is probably more probable.

I guess it depends on what you mean by "window" - competitive? Capable of winning two or more playoff rounds? Did anyone expect the Islanders to be competing for first place this late in the year or Vegas going to the Final last year?

If you're comparing windows to the likes of Pittsburgh and Chicago then, indeed, we might never have a window.

 

[Dijock94]

We have accumulated enough first rounders now, it's time to start chugging baby steps forward. The cap continues to go up and up, Pastranaks deal is a bargain now and the deal McDavid signed seems ridiculous in comparison to the others now. Panarin at 10 mill in 3.5 years will be like 7 now. It wont be a problem.

I disagree. I think two more years of multiple first rounders is necessary.

1. Not every first round pick we’ve made is going to pan out.

2. All of our first round picks we’ve made project to be high end complimentary players. What kind of full rebuild doesn’t include a few guys with star potential?

 

[Dijock94]

I disagree. I think two more years of multiple first rounders is necessary.

1. Not every first round pick we’ve made is going to pan out.

2. All of our first round picks we’ve made project to be high end complimentary players. What kind of full rebuild doesn’t include a few guys with star potential?

3. This upcoming year and next year are our best chances at pulling a legitimate superstar from the draft. Gotta go full tank for one more year. We could possibly land two stars in consecutive drafts to our with all of the complimentary player we already drafted.

 

[effen]

It's lunacy to think Panarin will come here to get his head caved in for 2 years while he, what, parties in Manhattan?

You don't think he's gonna live in the gym and count his macros, do you? Have polite dinner parties with Mika and his girlfriend? If he's here, he's here for the city and what it can bring. I wonder if that's ever bit the Rangers in the past...

That's not even factoring in his actual non-fantasyland contract of probably 7/80.

 

[TheDirtyH]

You know we often talk about one guy or another being a top player past a certain age and there is often the assumption that the guy we want will be one of the players who aged well.

But food for thought, of the top 30 highest scoring players in the NHL right now, only one is older than 32 - Ovechkin.

And he’s 33.

Let’s assume the Rangers have a similar arch to Chicago, Panarin would be 32 when that window starts.

Starts.

There are a lot of older guys continuing to excel into their 30s.

Getzlaf leads ANA in scoring yet again. Bergeron is pacing 97pts/season, Marchand (30) leads the team, and Krejci is pacing for a career year (70pt pace). Giordano is about to win the Norris at 35. Kane and Toews are about to shatter career highs at 30y/o. Yandle @ 32 is pacing the same. Kopitar (32) and Brown (34) lead the kings in scoring and Parise and Staal (34) lead the Wild. On our own team, Zuccarello was scoring at his best rate ever at 31.

10 0f the top 30 scorers are 30+.

Then there's consideration of how many games Panarin has played. 313 Regular Season, 17 Playoffs. (Taylor Hall — a month younger — has played 562 and 5 for comparison -- with many not counted bc of injuries)

What about Panarin himself makes you think he wouldn't still be an elite player at 32?

 

[rkhum]

If the Rangers had kept the 17-18 team together as much possible, would they be a playoff team?
I'm talking, they kept:

-Stephan, McD, Hayes, etc

 

[RGY]

Keeping in mind that the 2009 Chicago team also featured two guys taken with top 3 picks, a 24 year old fourth overall pick, and several guys approaching or in their peaks with Keith, Sharp and Havlat, and young talent emerging in Buff.

That would be a hell of a lot of ground for us to cover by 2021 or 2022.

Like I said, Chciago’s on the shorter end of the timetable. Matching that timetable would be impressive, exceeding it would be pretty monumental.

Time will tell. We have players on Havlat’s level. We have talent here already with Zibanejad and if we keep Kreider. We have drafted/acquired (6) 1st round picks alone from the last three drafts. We very well may end up with (3) more in this upcoming draft. That is just the 1st round alone. Forget who may emerge in rounds 2-7. Guys that we acquired like Lindgren and Rykov who were drafted in those rounds but their stock rose a bit after they were drafted.

I think we could match that “window” of competitiveness because of how many early round picks/talent we have accumulated

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

If the Rangers had kept the 17-18 team together as much possible, would they be a playoff team?
I'm talking, they kept:

-Stephan, McD, Hayes, etc

Last year? Yes

This year? Maybe.

 

[TheBloodyNine]

If the Rangers had kept the 17-18 team together as much possible, would they be a playoff team?
I'm talking, they kept:

-Stephan, McD, Hayes, etc

Who?

 

[Shesterkybomb]

I disagree. I think two more years of multiple first rounders is necessary.

1. Not every first round pick we’ve made is going to pan out.

2. All of our first round picks we’ve made project to be high end complimentary players. What kind of full rebuild doesn’t include a few guys with star potential?

Panarin is a star....keep your first rounders continue to draft.

 

[Thirty One]

This is what Portzline said in August:

“Panarin alerted the Blue Jackets before the June draft that he wasn’t willing to negotiate a contract extension. The list of his preferred destinations that surfaced at the draft — New York Rangers, New York Islanders, Los Angeles, Tampa Bay, Florida and Dallas — apparently still applies, but NHL sources have told The Athletic that the Rangers are Panarin’s first choice.”

 

[E-Train]

Panarin needs to grab a Golden Beach high rise and commute to Sunrise. Quick ride to South Beach. Keep that extra ~9%.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

This is what Portzline said in August:

“Panarin alerted the Blue Jackets before the June draft that he wasn’t willing to negotiate a contract extension. The list of his preferred destinations that surfaced at the draft — New York Rangers, New York Islanders, Los Angeles, Tampa Bay, Florida and Dallas — apparently still applies, but NHL sources have told The Athletic that the Rangers are Panarin’s first choice.”

However, other teams and their rosters will certainly be considered. Milstein was honest that he and Panarin will likely begin discussing his potential fits with other teams when they meet next month. Panarin, still just 27, will likely be the most sought-after forward on the free agent market if he opts to leave Columbus and could pick almost any team to play for given his unique skill set. It has previously been reported that Panarin prefers to play in a coastal metropolitan area, with many speculating that the three New York-area teams, all of whom are in comfortable salary-cap situations, are possible fits, while Boston, Florida, Carolina or one of the three California teams would also be logical landing spots. The competitive Panarin also wants a chance to win the Stanley Cup. Even though he will almost certainly sign a seven-year contract at a minimum and a lot can change in that time, teams’ recent success and talent pool moving forward will also weigh heavily on his decision. As Milstein stated, they believe that the Blue Jackets are one of those talented, young teams that will be a contender moving forward.

Artemi Panarin doesn't want to be traded, will discuss future with Columbus

I mean nothing ground breaking and all of this is outdated info.

 

[SA16]

You wonder why Panarin might want to come here but it's really not that hard to understand. From 2008-2011 Artemi Panarin played for Chekhov Vityaz of the Kontinental Hockey League. One of his teammates there? Former Ranger Chris Simon. You don't think Simon might have told Artemi a little bit about his time as a Ranger and made it sound appealing to him? He also briefly played for Kazan. Who did he play with there? Jarkko Immonen. Then he went to SKA. Guess who he played with there. Petr Prucha. Fedor Fedorov. Alexei Semeonv. Dmitri Kalinin. Igor Shestyorkin. Is it that hard to believe that he's always wanted to be a Ranger based on the connections he made while in Russia?

 

[Edge]

I guess it depends on what you mean by "window" - competitive? Capable of winning two or more playoff rounds? Did anyone expect the Islanders to be competing for first place this late in the year or Vegas going to the Final last year?

If you're comparing windows to the likes of Pittsburgh and Chicago then, indeed, we might never have a window.

Vegas was a product of an expansion draft, that’s not really a fair example.

As for Islanders, I’d like to believe we’re shooting for more than that.