Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXXII

[Barnaby]

Most of the time it happens in football and that’s how I’ve gained my insight to these move up to the 1st, 2nd, 3rd picks of the draft deals. Either the team drafting just doesn’t like a guy at the top and their top ranked guy was at a lower range, or, more common the team trading up is in a spot that allows the team with that 1-3OA to still take their #1 target and then add additional assets.

If you're a fan of the NFL, then you've also probably seen the draft value chart which gives a rough starting point value for trades. The drop in point value between the top 3, and 4-5 is astronomical. Teams that trade the top 3 picks usually even blow that chart away. Add to that, there is a pretty good consensus that you have two franchise players in this draft and it'll require an overpay.

 

[Lindberg Cheese]

Is the draft lottery truly random or can easily be rigged?

Theyre contracting the selection to FIFA, gotta buy some 3rd world guys off with helicopters, they love those

 

[Barnaby]

Haha man your rigid in your views. You look at things really arbitratily

He's rigid? The general consensus is that there are two franchise players in this draft. Whoever lands in the top 2 is a team who needs a building block franchise player. These teams aren't trading down for 'depth.' It's not rigid, it's common sense. These teams aren't out to help the Rangers needs.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I’ll Check back with ya when they beat everyone except Calgary.

Go ahead and do that, they still wouldn't be in the 13th slot.

I mean yeah they barely beat a gassed and depleted NJD team to snap a 6 game losing streak, we have every reason to believe that they're going to run through this road trip.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

Unless we bottom out next year (and assuming there is a franchise player or two in that draft) I have a fear we are destined for mediocrity for a long time.

This team just has no clue how to bottom out and unless by some miracle we end up with a miracle development (Kravtsov or Miller maybe?) we will continue to be short the high end talent necessary to win a cup.

 

[bobbop]

Do you actually believe that a team would move down from 2 to 6-9 for a couple of extra picks?

It could happen, but it won’t. Think I can guarantee that pretty easily.

**** like that happens in fantasy land.

It could but it depends on which player a team is fixated on. Consider this...if the Rangers were a spot or two higher in the draft last year but were fixated on Kravtsov, would they have traded down to pick up a second? They knew who else was scouting him closely. Part of scouting is watching what other teams are doing.

Focus is always an on trading up here to get the better asset but I’m guessing Gorton is also weighing offers to go in the other direction. Arizona heavily weighed an offer to move down to seven last year because they felt they could get Hayton there but they decided at last minute to stay at 5. They knew Miller wouldn’t have made it to 26 last year so they initiated action.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

It could but it depends on which player a team is fixated on. Consider this...if the Rangers were a spot or two higher in the draft last year but were fixated on Kravtsov, would they have traded down to pick up a second? They knew who else was scouting him closely. Part of scouting is watching what other teams are doing.

Focus is always an on trading up here to get the better asset but I’m guessing Gorton is also weighing offers to go in the other direction. Arizona heavily weighed an offer to move down to seven last year because they felt they could get Hayton there but they decided at last minute to stay at 5. They knew Miller wouldn’t have made it to 26 last year so they initiated action.

These situations aren’t really comparable to trading down from 2 in this draft, though.

Would the Rangers have traded down from 2 last year to take Kravstov? I don’t think so. And Kaako is a better prospect than Svechnikov.

If it were to happen, we’re talking Chytil, Miller, etc. Not the Jets pick and Ryan f***ing Strome.

 

[haveandare]

Unless we bottom out next year (and assuming there is a franchise player or two in that draft) I have a fear we are destined for mediocrity for a long time.

This team just has no clue how to bottom out and unless by some miracle we end up with a miracle development (Kravtsov or Miller maybe?) we will continue to be short the high end talent necessary to win a cup.

A few things:

1. I'm sure they have a clue how to do it, it's not hard.
2. They're not the only team trying to rebuild and hoping to get a top pick.
3. The draft lottery rules don't guarantee a top pick for anyone anymore.
4. They probably don't want to have the team be as god awful as possible when they have multiple young players they're trying to develop along with a new coach trying to set up a foundational culture for the future.

My advice for everyone would be to stop praying for the team to finish last. The roster isn't very good at all right now, and they're very unlikely to purposely make it even worse than this no matter how badly you might want them to. There are a handful of team just as bad if not worse that I'd guarantee you the front office has no interest in being in a race to the bottom with.

And you absolutely can get great players without a top 3 pick or a miracle development. Almost every year a few game breaking players are picked in the mid first round, and often a few in the later rounds too.

 

[Bluto]

So I posted something on the main trade boards about a potential oilers trade...
Something around
To NYR
Lucic
Poolparty
Yamamoto
EDM 1st

To Edm

Pionk
Fast
Namesti
WPG 1ST

Do you take on the lucic contract to get their draft pick?

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

So I posted something on the main trade boards about a potential oilers trade...
Something around
To NYR
Lucic
Poolparty
Yamamoto
EDM 1st

To Edm

Pionk
Fast
Namestnikov
NYR 2nd

Do you take on the lucic contract to get their draft pick?

no.

 

[Barnaby]

These situations aren’t really comparable to trading down from 2 in this draft, though.

Would the Rangers have traded down from 2 last year to take Kravstov? I don’t think so. And Kaako is a better prospect than Svechnikov.

If it were to happen, we’re talking Chytil, Miller, etc. Not the Jets pick and Ryan ****ing Strome.

If the Rangers even have an opportunity to go from 5-9 into the top 2 picks then it'll be a trade that HURTS. It'll be a trade that 2/3 of us think is a mistake. This isn't happening for any of the disposable assets mentioned here. Kravstov, Miller, Chytil, 2020 1st, Shestyorkin... those are the types of assets people will be asking for. Some combination of the above with our pick. A late 1st, a 2nd, Ryan Strome? That's not what a team will want for that asset.

 

[NernieBichols]

Do you actually believe that a team would move down from 2 to 6-9 for a couple of extra picks?

It could happen, but it won’t. Think I can guarantee that pretty easily.

**** like that happens in fantasy land.

6-9 to 2 is a lot as well. 4-5 would be a beautiful landing spot. Shift the question to if the rangers pull the 4 or 5 out of the draft lottery, would you guys want to stay there and make the pick or move up and what would you be willing to pay and what do you think it would take

(see my 1203)

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

6-9 to 2 is a lot as well. 4-5 would be a beautiful landing spot. Shift the question to if the rangers pull the 4 or 5 out of the draft lottery, would you guys want to stay there and make the pick or move up and what would you be willing to pay and what do you think it would take

(see my 1203)

I'll stay at 4-5.

The Gap between Kakko and Byram/Cozens isn't that big.

 

[I Eat Crow]

Edmonton would have to retain half on Lucic and then I would maybe think about it.

 

[Barnaby]

So I posted something on the main trade boards about a potential oilers trade...
Something around
To NYR
Lucic
Poolparty
Yamamoto
EDM 1st

To Edm

Pionk
Fast
Namesti
WPG 1ST

Do you take on the lucic contract to get their draft pick?

I might if it's a top 2 pick, or EDM is retaining 50% on Lucic - and it's top 5 otherwise, no dice.... and I don't see EDM taking that.

 

[NernieBichols]

If you're a fan of the NFL, then you've also probably seen the draft value chart which gives a rough starting point value for trades. The drop in point value between the top 3, and 4-5 is astronomical. Teams that trade the top 3 picks usually even blow that chart away. Add to that, there is a pretty good consensus that you have two franchise players in this draft and it'll require an overpay.

I don’t follow the NFL anymore at all. I’m just saying when these deals happen the acquiring team is normally sitting on the 4, 5, 6 AO and it goes down bc the trading team fell in love with a player they can get at 4-6 and like the additional pieces.

 

[Barnaby]

I don’t follow the NFL anymore at all. I’m just saying when these deals happen the acquiring team is normally sitting on the 4, 5, 6 AO and it goes down bc the trading team fell in love with a player they can get at 4-6 and like the additional pieces.

It's usually a different situation. Look at the Jets move from 6-3. Jets way overpaid based on the value chart. With that said, Colts were able to ascertain most of the players that would go before their pick bc it's largely based on need. Teams were going QB and everyone knew it - and still got an overpay.

 

[NernieBichols]

He's rigid? The general consensus is that there are two franchise players in this draft. Whoever lands in the top 2 is a team who needs a building block franchise player. These teams aren't trading down for 'depth.' It's not rigid, it's common sense. These teams aren't out to help the Rangers needs.

I don’t know that kakko is viewed as a franchise player or exactly how much so Hughes is viewed that way. A prototypic #1C is normally the aim when your picking that high, that’s why Columbus passed on poolparty and tzchuk/Keller for Dubois. And ive heard a lot of people talking about this years crop having a lot of potential top end centers. If you got a couple wingers already or you don’t have a young top6 C either on the NHL or in the wings or your eying Byram..... than maybe your looking at your guy, a late 1st, a 2nd and a B prospect. If a team wants someone they can get at 4-6 and they can add a combo of said assets additionally. Why not. And why hold a unreasonable ask if you want a player in that range: what are your other choices; just kakko and bypass the player you like and the additional assets or pick your guy there and allow the rangers to give the assets to the team at 3 for kakko. You know what I mean

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

Once again, Gorton will probably try to move up high, like he reportedly has in the last few drafts.

Got a bunch of assets again, so who knows if he'll be able to do it this time.

2016 - Tried to move up to 4OA for Keller, but CBJ picked PLD which caused Oilers to say no to the trade-down.
2017 - Tried to move up to 3 for Makar, and then VAN knew we wanted Pettersson, so picked him at 5OA.
2018 - don't think Gorton reportedly tried moving up, AFAIK

Right, he didn’t try to move up last year because they thought Kravtsov (who they think is going to be the second best forward from the 2018 draft) would actually be there at their pick, and he was

 

[NernieBichols]

I'll stay at 4-5.

The Gap between Kakko and Byram/Cozens isn't that big.

I don’t know the players enough to know what I’d do. I know some guys I really trust absolutely love kakko. But I don’t know. I’m talking about the ways these things would come together or what would make the team lean or not lean a certain way.

Myself— I have no idea what I’d do without knowing the specifics of EVERYTHING these guys in the front office have access to and who’s job it is to know the particulars. Without particulars everything here is just a form of working through different possibilities and people’s opinions on the different options

 

[NernieBichols]

Right, he didn’t try to move up last year because they thought Kravtsov (who they think is going to be the second best forward from the 2018 draft) would actually be there at their pick, and he was

They would have moved up for either tkachuk or Hughes. Both were gone by the range the rangers could have realistically moved up into, at that Point, it’s exactly as you said

 

[kovazub94]

Yeah, I can't really fault the team. In the past 13+ months they've traded the following guys: Nash, Holden, Grabner, Miller, McDonagh, Zuccarello, McQuaid, and Hayes. I mean they tore this ****ing thing to the ground. There's really not much more they could realistically do short of trading Kreider which you can't do just for the sole purpose of tanking. Team's playing hard and the coach seems to be getting through to them. It's frustrating to see them pick up points the way they are but it is what it is. Just hope the ping pong balls fall their way.

And tonight isn't the type of loss I get mad at because the Devils are icing an AHL team and the Rangers fully throttled them. They deserved to win and got the 2 points. I get infuriated when they scratch out points against teams like the Lightning and Capitals who have the talent to skate circles around them. It drives me up the wall.

Good post in the PGT.

Let’s put things in perspective. In a very short period of time the Rangers lost their total first line in Nash-Stepan-Zuke, total second line in Miller-Hayes-Grabner and a sometimes a first pair (definite #1, questionable #2) in McDonagh-Holden.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

They would have moved up for either tkachuk or Hughes. Both were gone by the range the rangers could have realistically moved up into, at that Point, it’s exactly as you said

I don't know where they had Hughes ranked overall, but they had Kravstov ahead of Tkachuk.

 

[NYR Viper]

I’d consider taking Lucic if Edmonton retained AND they gave this years 1st. I’d look to send Smith there way. Something like:

Lucic @ $4.35m per season
EDM 1st ‘19

For

Brendan Smith

Cap hits even out for next year and the year after. The Rangers get a high first rounder this year (probably higher than their own pick) and fill a 3rd or 4th line wing role.

I really think that if Lucic could get out of Edmonton his stats would improve. I’m not saying he’ll be a 50 point guy. But 35 points? I think that’s reasonable.

 

[UAGoalieGuy]

After bombing on Pool Party the Oilers are in no position to move their likely top 10 #1 to rid themselves of Lucic.

If they move it, would be for a top pair Dman or Top 6 winger.