Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXXI

[Ori]

What does Panarin change, in terms of the rebuild/retool?

It change, because he will win us game just like Henrik when he is on his game, and if the blueline or the young future pieces are not ready for playoffs - it directly affect our drafting positions to hit with an elite talent in the draft who has similar age as Chytil & Kratsov.
Panarin is like 27 and his prime years is outside our rebuild window with our new core who we are suppose to rebuild around - and I`m not certain if Kratsov is that player yet or Chytil - so we need to continue to build future core in the draft.

 

[Edge]

Dont disagree here.

But two things for me...

Signing a guy like Panarin pushes one of Lias/Chytil/Kravtsov more into a support role with less demand needed from them to be “the guy”. So not only do the higher end prospects become the support guys but they also become insulated by an elite talent

Also I am comfortable with a lot of the guys we have behind them. We have Howden and Lemieux right now capable of playing NHL minutes. There are more forwards in the system that could possibly make their push in. Guys like Fast, Namestnikov, Nieves can be the bridge for the time being playing the depth roles while you have a guy like a Morgan Barron working their way through the system. Someone who potentially will be a better impact player playing the same minutes/role those guys are playing right now.

See, now I tend to feel a guy like Panarin actually has the opposite impact. I think he speeds up the timeline and the expectation for them to accelerate their contributions and roles. And while there's nothing wrong with high expectations, I feel like having an 8 digit investment on the team means everything is sped up.

You don't invest $11 million a year in a player with the understanding that "kids will take time, and everyone develops at a different pace." A team doesn't sign a player like that for him to be there when the kids are ready 1/3 to 1/2 of the way through his contract.

Maybe with a $5 or $6 million a year player, but not double that. Expecting that is just wishful thinking and, IMO, drifting into that grey area where we project our desires on real-world situations in which we are not sitting on the board of directors.

You sign Panarin because the the future is now. And the future is not now for this team, as it will be constructed on July 1, 2019.

 

[Beer League Sniper]

So your rebuild is centered around a UFA?

Of course not, but if the talent becomes available, you need to take into account how that's going to impact your rebuild. Players on Panarin's level almost never make it to UFA. This is a very abnormal situation to be faced with.

 

[SA16]

Not to mention that I feel like people are continuing to do is ignore the evidence that is there, and inject their own opinions as fact. This rebuild approach began publicly when the letter went out. Ever since then, Gorton has what he said he would. I heard last summer how they’d try to speed up the rebuild by targeting some high impact vets. That didn’t happen and there is nothing to suggest that it will happen this off-season. The merits of signing Panarin can be debated, but, I see otherwise, there’s nothing to suggest he’s a target. People can try to claim that Gorton won’t let this team be non-competitive , when the evidence is there that he already did this past off-season.

What high impacts vets were available prior to this season outside of Tavares who said he wouldn't play here and I suppose Hoffman via trade?

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

What high impacts vets were available prior to this season outside of Tavares who said he wouldn't play here and I suppose Hoffman via trade?

That other guy Ottawa traded was pretty big.

 

[duhmetreE]

It change, because he will win us game just like Henrik when he is on his game, and if the blueline or the young future pieces are not ready for playoffs - it directly affect our drafting positions to hit with an elite talent in the draft who has similar age as Chytil & Kratsov.
Panarin is like 27 and his prime years is outside our rebuild window with our new core who we are suppose to rebuild around - and I`m not certain if Kratsov is that player yet or Chytil - so we need to continue to build future core in the draft.

So the problem is, he will help us win games..

This is where the differences lay.. I do not want or think it's advisable to tank indefinitely... Others do.

 

[Edge]

Again, 2-3 years from now puts us at 4-5 into the rebuild.

Not sure I quite consider the countdown from the 2017 draft. I think that was the pre-amble, but an additional first round pick kind of masks the fact that the Rangers didn't pick again until the fourth round. It's why I've never really considered it to be when we really committed to this path.

But, for the sake of our conversation, let's go with that approach.

Fast forward to the 2021-2022 season. Yes, Andersson and Chytil are 22 years old. Howden and Hajek are 23. Lets assume, they've all made it. Let's assume they give us three top 9 forward, and a second pairing defenseman.

We're still looking at a team with 21 year old Kravtov and Miller and a teenage version of whoever we take in 2019 or 2020 --- assuming the latter is on the roster.

Even if most of our depth prospects pan out, Keane, Lundkvist, Lindgren, etc. etc. That is still a VERY young team, to say nothing about truly being in it's window.

Even if we're making steady progress towards our window, which hopefully we will, you're probably looking at needing to get that second set of guys to around 23ish --- which would would put the Chytil, Andersson, Howden's, etc. closer to that 25/26 mark. In turn, guys like ADA would be closer to that 27/28 mark.

Now we're a little closer to what everyone wants. But that doesn't come over night, even if it starts to resemble it's final form two or three years from now.

In other words, just because we look in the oven, and what we see resembles a cake, doesn't mean it's ready to be dessert. And that is one of the key things we need to keep in mind.

So now we're talking about things start to resemble what we want when Panarin is around 30, and ready for prime time when he's closer to 32.

Assuming he maintains his production, I still don't see the Rangers paying a player $11 million a season, for roughly half his contract, to wait for what we're cooking to get served. Nor do I see the inherent benefit of having him around to do so.

 

[NYR Viper]

The appeal of Panarin, like any UFA, is that there are no assets going out to acquire him. Making a trade for someone like Nylander or whoever means assets going the other way and still paying big money to the player most likely.

Panarin is one of the youngest UFA's available in a long while. His production has been increasing over the last three years. I'd be interested. I wouldn't be interested @ $11m per season, but I'd be interested.

 

[Edge]

What does Panarin change, in terms of the rebuild/retool?

For me, two key things:

1. Timeline

2. Approach

I don't see any way in which there doesn't become a pressure situation to speed things up.

I don't see any way in which speeding things up doesn't have a negative impact on the approach.

That's probably the simplest answer I can give, with support from other posts I have --- which have equated to a decent sized magazine article.

 

[BobMarleyNYR]

I really think a top-six center is their top-priority, whether through a trade or free agency. Let's face it, they won't get an 18-year-old center who can immediately replace Hayes 45-50 pts. through the draft. Chytil is learning the game, Andersson may or may not be (no one knows what's up there) and Namestnikov is 2nd-3rd line wing/4th line C... defense is as big an issue... Panarin should be 3rd priority.

 

[Tawnos]

Not sure I quite consider the countdown from the 2017 draft. I think that was the pre-amble, but an additional first round pick kind of masks the fact that the Rangers didn't pick again until the fourth round. It's why I've never really considered it to be when we really committed to this path.

But, for the sake of our conversation, let's go with that approach.

Fast forward to the 2021-2022 season. Yes, Andersson and Chytil are 22 years old. Howden and Hajek are 23. Lets assume, they've all made it. Let's assume they give us three top 9 forward, and a second pairing defenseman.

We're still looking at a team with 21 year old Kravtov and Miller and a teenage version of whoever we take in 2019 or 2020 --- assuming the latter is on the roster.

Even if most of our depth prospects pan out, Keane, Lundkvist, Lindgren, etc. etc. That is still a VERY young team, to say nothing about truly being in it's window.

Even if we're making steady progress towards our window, which hopefully we will, you're probably looking at needing to get that second set of guys to around 23ish --- which would would put the Chytil, Andersson, Howden's, etc. closer to that 25/26 mark. In turn, guys like ADA would be closer to that 27/28 mark.

Now we're a little closer to what everyone wants. But that doesn't come over night, even if it starts to resemble it's final form two or three years from now.

In other words, just because we look in the oven, and what we see resembles a cake, doesn't mean it's ready to be dessert. And that is one of the key things we need to keep in mind.

So now we're talking about things start to resemble what we want when Panarin is around 30, and ready for prime time when he's closer to 32.

Assuming he maintains his production, I still don't see the Rangers paying a player $11 million a season, for roughly half his contract, to wait for what we're cooking to get served. Nor do I see the inherent benefit of having him around to do so.

See, but the problem with this take is that you're only mentioning draft picks and prospects acquired since 2017, but you're mentioning a second wave. What about young veterans? If Chytil and Kravtsov are top-6 players in 2-3 years, they get added to Zibanejad and Buchnevich... possibly even Vesey or Lemieux. A top-6 of Zibanejad, Buchnevich, Panarin, Chytil (performing close to expectations), Kravtsov (same), and a middle-6 guy like Vesey is one that can compete with anyone. That doesn't even get into Andersson and Howden and whoever else we draft or develops will (i.e. Barron).

The D is mostly the issue here, I think we'd both agree with that.

 

[Off Sides]

Sell
Retool
Fail to make playoffs
Send Letter
Sell
Stockpile
Have a couple 19, 20 year old rookies play in the NHL and be okay
Sell
Stockpile
Add an 11M cap hit 27 year old player for 7 years

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

Sell
Retool
Fail to make playoffs
Send Letter
Sell
Stockpile
Have a couple 19, 20 year old rookies play in the NHL and be okay
Sell
Stockpile
Add an 11M cap hit 27 year old player for 7 years

Perfectly illustrated without a shit ton of paragraphs

If you look at Gorton’s recent moves/attempted moves, the things he’s said, and you think Panarin is in the cards, well, I don’t know what the f*** you’re looking at.

 

[Ori]

I hope Gorton continue to build in the draft @duhmetreE - we just started almost compare to other NHL teams. Look at Ottawa now - they just sent Matt & Stone packing their bags. And Gorton sent Zucc & Hayes so that is part of the process and maybe Jeff hit with two conditional 1st for Zucc we don`t know yet and that is exciting. Maybe he return an elite talented player in the draft.

 

[Edge]

See, but the problem with this take is that you're only mentioning draft picks and prospects acquired since 2017, but you're mentioning a second wave. What about young veterans? If Chytil and Kravtsov are top-6 players in 2-3 years, they get added to Zibanejad and Buchnevich... possibly even Vesey or Lemieux. A top-6 of Zibanejad, Buchnevich, Panarin, Chytil (performing close to expectations), Kravtsov (same), and a middle-6 guy like Vesey is one that can compete with anyone.

The D is mostly the issue here, I think we'd both agree with that.

I think that's where the timing factor comes into play.

A window is when different components really come together at close to the same time.

Unfortunately, that also means there are really good and popular components that come and go just before, or just after. That's one of the most fascinating, and frustrating aspects of team sports.

I think the window for the amount of necessary components to come together, even with guys like Zibanejad, Buch, etc. is probably still in that timeline I mentioned.

That's when you have some of those guys you mentioned in their late 20s, while the other names we mentioned are in their mid-20s, and some of the younger ones are in their early 20s.

That's where you have that overlap where those guys are still close enough to their primes, and other guys are in their primes, and other guys are just approaching their primes.

THAT is the window, IMO.

It's a key difference between say a 1991 birthday and a 1993 birthday, or an $11 million contract compared to one that's even $7 or $8 million. Not a huge difference on the surface, but significant when discussing windows or timelines.

Even I dismiss the birthday aspect, and Panarin is still a very productive NHL player five years from now, I don't see his presence in the preceding several years allowing things to flow as they naturally would without him. Again, because no one signs a player at $11 million to have him sit through several years of getting a team to that point.

 

[True Blue]

I really think a top-six center is their top-priority, whether through a trade or free agency.

If that was the priority, then why trade Hayes?

 

[bobbop]

There are two good reasons to stick to bridge deals this year. One, none of the four important RFAs has done enough in my eyes to earn a long term commitment. Buchnevich is a soft maybe but I want to see how the rest of this season plays out and how the draft lottery and Kreider’s future shake out before I go down that road. Second is that two years from now (or sooner) at least $25MM comes off the payroll. At that money there will be plenty of money available to do meaningful extensions or get ready to package someone off to Seattle.

My offseason formula is; buyout Smith, build four bridges, sign the Bread Man and trade for a solid defenseman.

 

[duhmetreE]

For me, two key things:

1. Timeline

2. Approach

I don't see any way in which there doesn't become a pressure situation to speed things up.

I don't see any way in which speeding things up doesn't have a negative impact on the approach.

That's probably the simplest answer I can give, with support from other posts I have --- which have equated to a decent sized magazine article.

This is all based on the assumption they speed things up. I'm guessing what you mean by that, is trading our assets for a 'win-now' aspect. I'm not for speeding things up in that manner. However, winning and creating a competitive environment may speed things up, in a good way.

What if everything stayed the same but Panarin playing with Mika? Maybe a hockey trade or two. Letting the kids develop and keeping all prospects/picks. Your fear doesn't manifest, would you be ok then?

 

[Fitzy]

The GM is on record as saying he'd be willing to move quantity for quality.

Whether that means moving up in a draft or moving for a star younger player I'm unsure.

On Panarin- he's quite young. If we don't think he fits in the rebuild timeframe we shouldn't re-sign Kreider either.

 

[Dijock94]

It change, because he will win us game just like Henrik when he is on his game, and if the blueline or the young future pieces are not ready for playoffs - it directly affect our drafting positions to hit with an elite talent in the draft who has similar age as Chytil & Kratsov.
Panarin is like 27 and his prime years is outside our rebuild window with our new core who we are suppose to rebuild around - and I`m not certain if Kratsov is that player yet or Chytil - so we need to continue to build future core in the draft.

Thank god you said it. I’ve felt like a leper when I share the thought that a Panarin contract is a mistake.

 

[JimmyG89]

We're going to look to add to the age range of the team again. 20-26 year old players. UFAs will fill out the roster.

I'm not going back through this entire thread, but with Columbus losing Panarin/Bob this offseason, they almost have to re-sign Duchene, especially with no draft picks for this upcoming draft.

I'm on board with trying to get Wennberg from them. He exploded when he came up and has since cooled after signing his deal. He's 24 and his cap hit is 4.9. He's fallen out of favor in Columbus. This could be a great buy low option. In the end, if he bombs out, we can buy out the contract for pennies, similar to Strome's deal.

This would be if the buyout is 1 year after a potential trade: Alexander Wennberg Contract Buyout Details - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

If it's beyond one season, the penalties increase a decent amount. I'm not advocating that we give up big assets for him, but with our draft capital being flush, we might want to consider moving a pick for him if Columbus is ready to move on. Fresh start for a player who has talent, but it isn't working out for him.

Gorton did say we are at a point where we can start moving some picks/prospects for NHL players. I would not be surprised if they look into this.

 

[BobMarleyNYR]

This team has been here many times in recent years... they have their star, the main go-to guy, but a pretty average team, and it ALMOST gets them there. "White-washed tomb" -Shakespeare. And ALMOST defied science 5 years ago.

They didn't sign Tavares, the won't sign Panarin.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

Sell
Retool
Fail to make playoffs
Send Letter
Sell
Stockpile
Have a couple 19, 20 year old rookies play in the NHL and be okay
Sell
Stockpile
Add an 11M cap hit 27 year old player for 7 years

Just a nitpick, didn’t they send the letter and sell before they missed the playoffs?

 

[duhmetreE]

There are two good reasons to stick to bridge deals this year. One, none of the four important RFAs has done enough in my eyes to earn a long term commitment. Buchnevich is a soft maybe but I want to see how the rest of this season plays out and how the draft lottery and Kreider’s future shake out before I go down that road. Second is that two years from now (or sooner) at least $25MM comes off the payroll. At that money there will be plenty of money available to do meaningful extensions or get ready to package someone off to Seattle.

My offseason formula is; buyout Smith, build four bridges, sign the Bread Man and trade for a solid defenseman.

I'm somewhat similar. like you said, MAYBE take a 4-5 year deal for ADA. The Skjei for Trouba type deal makes sense.

I'd add, doing whatever it takes to drop Shattenkirk.

 

[DanielBrassard]

The GM is on record as saying he'd be willing to move quantity for quality.

Whether that means moving up in a draft or moving for a star younger player I'm unsure.

On Panarin- he's quite young. If we don't think he fits in the rebuild timeframe we shouldn't re-sign Kreider either.

100%, and we should probably look to move Zibanejad before his NMC locks in while he's at his highest value. Sure the team could be competitive by the time he's a UFA, but if it's not then we just missed out on a ton of value.