Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXXI

[I Eat Crow]

They were rebuilding?

News to me. They had a down year after making the finals, the lockout happened, then he signed.

Gonchar yup, after the Pens had drafted Crosby and Malkin, Ditto Chicago with Campbell.

So your real lone example is Chara and the Bruins.

Interesting enough, every example you cited was a d-man signing. I think EK makes more sense than Panarin even if the risk is higher.

For sure. I'm thinking of making this my signature because I've been saying it so many times in recent days:

Erik Karlsson is a generational talent that will still be playing at a high level well into the 7 year deal he will get as a free agent this summer. The Rangers have a need for such a player and would be a great piece for the next Rangers team that's ready for contention.

 

[duhmetreE]

Everyone tends to feel that Tampa has been the gold standard for drafting over the last decade or so, and they'd have a good argument.

Consider that even with Stamkos, Hedman, Kucherov, etc. in tow, it still took time for Tampa to hit their window, for guys to develop, and for the team to take their success to a new level. And even then, there were still potholes along the way, and some guys busted.

So when we start thinking about two or three years down the line, let's think about how long it took some of today's top teams to reach that point --- aka the teams we are looking at with some degree of envy in 2019.

The collection of young talent we have is impressive, and it's impressive by Rangers' recent history. But we're not in uncharted waters here. Our depth and talent level isn't so amazing that we're going to defy a lot of the precedents and time-tested case studies that we've seen out there. It will take time.

And it will probably take more time than a lot of people realize.

There's nothing stopping us from drafting Kucherov's or Point's, if we sign Panarin

You're creating a false dichotomy. We can still draft and develop players with Panarin.

 

[Edge]

And that’s because there are going to be mistakes made, even if they are eventually successful.

I feel like we start getting into a lot of hypothetical to make the proposed timeline fit.

If just about all the prospects in our top 10 or 12 hit the ground running and are ready to contribute sooner rather than later.

If the guys we talk about the most hit as close to their ceilings as possible.

If the 2019 draft goes a certain way, etc.

I've always subscribed to the belief that for every "if" one throws into a plan, you lose percentage points are the likelihood of it turning out that way. I apply that to sports and in my career as a businessman. That's not to say it can't happen, but "ifs" can pile up pretty quickly.

And rebuilds are filled with "ifs" even when everything is going relatively smooth.

This concept just feels forced.

 

[duhmetreE]

This just expands on my point though. Every one of those guys was going to be the exception to all the guys who flopped in the past and yet they flopped just the same. "Oh this guy is different" should be the headline of every free agent signing.

I just don't see the point in signing him. He might make the team marginally better for the first few years of his deal, but then what? We have a depreciating $11m asset on the roster to navigate while finding money for the good young talent we've developed? Hard pass.

I made the point already. We need to be competitive and create a winning environment. Mika needs to be supported and kept here.

Drafting players and developing kids does not change. It's the never ending process in a cap league. Replacements and successors need to be readily available. That does not change

 

[Edge]

There's nothing stopping us from drafting Kucherov's or Point's, if we sign Panarin

You're creating a false dichotomy. We can still draft and develop players with Panarin.

I think you missed my point completely. But, for the sake of conversation, and to not get hung-up, let's go with, "Sure, I agree with your statement."

Still not seeing the timing for those players, even if we already have them, which I don't think we do, quite lining up with the Panarin timetable.

 

[NYRFANMANI]

Crosby and Malkin

Toews and Kane

Bergeron and Krejci

Getzlaf and Perry

Chytil and Lias

Yup, perennial Cup contender, ey? We need Byfield!

 

[Trxjw]

I made the point already. We need to be competitive and create a winning environment. Mika needs to be supported and kept here.

Drafting players and developing kids does not change. It's the never ending process in a cap league. Replacements and successors needs to be readily available. That does not change

I can certainly agree with that point. A winning environment is important. However, I'd prefer to see our own players develop that winning environment as opposed to overpaying players to try and do it. We lack star power and elite talent right now, sure, but the kids are working their assets off and battling every night. That's a great environment to build a winning team.

Zibanejad isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

 

[Tawnos]

Kick into gear, or contend?

Two very different concepts for me.

And looking at today's most successful teams, that built substantially through the draft, I think you'd be surprised at how far some of those timelines stretch.

It depends on how you're looking at it. The Blackhawks, for example, went through 2 rebuilding stages. Their first, which started around 98 or 99, was unsuccessful. Their second, which started in 02 or 03 took about 5 years for the team to be contenders. So yeah, it took them 10 years to get back to credibility... but that wasn't one rebuild.

It's perfectly possible that the Rangers are going to have to do the same thing. There are no guarantees here. A Panarin signing isn't going to be the difference between them.

 

[Off Sides]

Timeline things?

The CBA ending either before 2020 season or after 2022 season

Seattle expansion 2021-22

Lundqvist, Staal, Smith and Shattenkirk contracts all ending in the same off-season 2021.

All coincidence?

 

[dumpin]

Dont rush the rebuild. Would I love Panarin ,, sure but not at his cost at this time. Its gonna be tough to do it in NY, but I would target 2021/22 as the year for shopping for free agents. That year over 25 million of salary comes off the books. We clear aging players that are taking up development spots for the next two years. Shattenkirk, Smith, Staal, Lundquist, Garadi's buyout reduction, salary retentions for Zucc/Spooner, buyout of Belesky all come off the books.

For the next two years we need to accumulate and develop young talent. Us fans need something in short supply in the NY market, Patience.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

Can’t wait until we barely pursue Panarin and he signs an insane deal with the Panthers.

Only a few more months now.

 

[Edge]

It depends on how you're looking at it. The Blackhawks, for example, went through 2 rebuilding stages. Their first, which started around 98 or 99, was unsuccessful. Their second, which started in 02 or 03 took about 5 years for the team to be contenders. So yeah, it took them 10 years to get back to credibility... but that wasn't one rebuild.

Tampa actually took quite a while to get to this point.

Winnipeg did as well.

Toronto took a very long time to get to this point.

Caps, Preds, Flames, etc. took a decent amount of time to get there.

I know we tend to focus on the rebuilds that go poorly, and how long those teams suck. But I think there's a good amount of time even for the successful teams.

Even if we take all those teams and average out the length of time they took to get to today, without getting into the weeds of accounting for first overall picks and other factors, I'm not really sure we really arrive at a 2-3 year window.

 

[DanielBrassard]

I can certainly agree with that point. A winning environment is important. However, I'd prefer to see our own players develop that winning environment as opposed to overpaying players to try and do it. We lack star power and elite talent right now, sure, but the kids are working their assets off and battling every night. That's a great environment to build a winning team.

Zibanejad isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

Could make an argument that he should. The team could very well not be ready to compete by the time he's a UFA, and his NMC kicks in this off-season. Should probably trade him at the draft so we could have 2 top-10 picks. Just need to continue accumulating assets and hope eventually the Rangers won't end up picking 9th.

 

[RGY]

If you sign Panarin this off-season, you're forced to bridge Buch, ADA, Pionk. In addition to adding nothing else.

Just makes more problems 2 years down the road. Fat 'no' for me.

Oh no we have to bridge Pionk! What will we ever do?!?!?

Guy should be traded as soon as he raises his value back up again. He is not a very good defenseman. He isnt exactly young either where you see him as a long term piece. More of a passenger who will get passed up/pushed out in the next 2 years by younger better players.

ADA, they should bridge anyway after the disaster contract they handed out to Skjei. And that time Skjei had shown more promise.

Buchnevich is a .53 ppg player right now. I would try and get him to sign a 4 year deal. I see the potential there for him to be a top 9 player consistently over that time, occasionally moving up to the 2nd line. Try and get him to sign by offering $2.5-$3 aav over those 4 years. He might jump at the money because he knows he has been so up and down. If not, bridge him too.

These are not legitimate reasons to not sign an elite talent like Panarin

 

[True Blue]

Drafting players and developing kids does not change. It's the never ending process in a cap league. Replacements and successors need to be readily available. That does not change

And locking up a player long term with NMC/NTC clauses only will hamper your maneuverability. As it appears now, we can hope that some steps forward can be made by 2020-21 season. That is still not being a true contender.

 

[Ghost of jas]

I feel like we start getting into a lot of hypothetical to make the proposed timeline fit.

If just about all the prospects in our top 10 or 12 hit the ground running and are ready to contribute sooner rather than later.

If the guys we talk about the most hit as close to their ceilings as possible.

If the 2019 draft goes a certain way, etc.

I've always subscribed to the belief that for every "if" one throws into a plan, you lose percentage points are the likelihood of it turning out that way. I apply that to sports and in my career as a businessman. That's not to say it can't happen, but "ifs" can pile up pretty quickly.

And rebuilds are filled with "ifs" even when everything is going relatively smooth.

This concept just feels forced.

Not to mention that I feel like people are continuing to ignore the evidence that is there, and inject their own opinions as fact. This rebuild approach began publicly when the letter went out. Ever since then, Gorton has done what he said he would. I heard last summer how they’d try to speed up the rebuild by targeting some high impact vets. That didn’t happen and there is nothing to suggest that it will happen this off-season. The merits of signing Panarin can be debated, but, until I see otherwise, there’s nothing to suggest he’s a target. People can try to claim that Gorton won’t let this team be non-competitive , when the evidence is there that he already did this past off-season.

 

[Edge]

I can certainly agree with that point. A winning environment is important. However, I'd prefer to see our own players develop that winning environment as opposed to overpaying players to try and do it. We lack star power and elite talent right now, sure, but the kids are working their assets off and battling every night. That's a great environment to build a winning team.

Zibanejad isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

I also think we tend to focus on when our top prospects will be ready. But one of the things I don't think we're factoring in is the support guys.

So let's even say that Chytil, Andersson, Kravtsov, etc. are ready sooner rather than later, a big part of this rebuild is still going to come down to the "depth" players we develop. That's why even teams like Tampa, who received almost immediate production from their top, blue-chip prospects, still had a delay before their window was truly open.

It's easy to get fixated on the top prospects, but this rebuild will also owe a lot to who we develop beyond them, and when those players are ready.

 

[Edge]

Not to mention that I feel like people are continuing to do is ignore the evidence that is there, and inject their own opinions as fact. This rebuild approach began publicly when the letter went out. Ever since then, Gorton has what he said he would. I heard last summer how they’d try to speed up the rebuild by targeting some high impact vets. That didn’t happen and there is nothing to suggest that it will happen this off-season. The merits of signing Panarin can be debated, but, I see otherwise, there’s nothing to suggest he’s a target. People can try to claim that Gorton won’t let this team be non-competitive , when the evidence is there that he already did this past off-season.

That kind of goes back to the risk that all of us, myself included, face --- it's easy to project what we want in our conversations and align it more closely to an approach the Rangers have indicated they will take.

 

[RGY]

I also think we tend to focus on when our top prospects will be ready. But one of the things I don't think we're factoring in is the support guys.

So let's even say that Chytil, Andersson, Kravtsov, etc. are ready sooner rather than later, a big part of this rebuild is still going to come down to the "depth" players we develop. That's why even teams like Tampa, who received almost immediate production from their top, blue-chip prospects, still had a delay before their window was truly open.

It's easy to get fixated on the top prospects, but this rebuild will also owe a lot to who we develop beyond them, and when those players are ready.

Dont disagree here.

But two things for me...

Signing a guy like Panarin pushes one of Lias/Chytil/Kravtsov more into a support role with less demand needed from them to be “the guy”. So not only do the higher end prospects become the support guys but they also become insulated by an elite talent

Also I am comfortable with a lot of the guys we have behind them. We have Howden and Lemieux right now capable of playing NHL minutes. There are more forwards in the system that could possibly make their push in. Guys like Fast, Namestnikov, Nieves can be the bridge for the time being playing the depth roles while you have a guy like a Morgan Barron working their way through the system. Someone who potentially will be a better impact player playing the same minutes/role those guys are playing right now.

 

[duhmetreE]

I think you missed my point completely. But, for the sake of conversation, and to not get hung-up, let's go with, "Sure, I agree with your statement."

Still not seeing the timing for those players, even if we already have them, which I don't think we do, quite lining up with the Panarin timetable.

No, it takes time, I get it.

In the meantime, we can't be dumpster fire. We need a stable, competitive environment.

When's your 'window'? 2 years? 3 years? It's all subjective and dependent on many variables.

 

[Ghost of jas]

I also think we tend to focus on when our top prospects will be ready. But one of the things I don't think we're factoring in is the support guys.

So let's even say that Chytil, Andersson, Kravtsov, etc. are ready sooner rather than later, a big part of this rebuild is still going to come down to the "depth" players we develop. That's why even teams like Tampa, who received almost immediate production from their top, blue-chip prospects, still had a delay before their window was truly open.

It's easy to get fixated on the top prospects, but this rebuild will also owe a lot to who we develop beyond them, and when those players are ready.

I don’t see how anyone can look at where the Rangers are right now, and the current state of the roster and system as a whole and think pursuing Panarin is the right move.

 

[Ori]

And locking up a player long term with NMC/NTC clauses only will hamper your maneuverability. As it appears now, we can hope that some steps forward can be made by 2020-21 season. That is still not being a true contender.

Yes true. The whole rebuild process might take a while some years, and we need a much stronger blueline defensive, and part of it need to be drafted.

 

[Ghost of jas]

That kind of goes back to the risk that all of us, myself included, face --- it's easy to project what we want in our conversations and align it more closely to an approach the Rangers have indicated they will take.

Believe me, I’m trying to not do that with the draft. I would like to not be disappointed when they don’t go the direction I’m hoping they do.

 

[Tawnos]

Tampa actually took quite a while to get to this point.

Winnipeg did as well.

Toronto took a very long time to get to this point.

Caps, Preds, Flames, etc. took a decent amount of time to get there.

I know we tend to focus on the rebuilds that go poorly, and how long those teams suck. But I think there's a good amount of time even for the successful teams.

Even if we take all those teams and average out the length of time they took to get to today, without getting into the weeds of accounting for first overall picks and other factors, I'm not really sure we really arrive at a 2-3 year window.

Again, 2-3 years from now puts us at 4-5 into the rebuild.

Toronto has had multiple rebuild phases. So has Winnipeg.
Tampa took 6 years, but there are two phases to their rebuild as well (pre- and post-Yzerman).
The Predators have never really rebuilt.
The Capitals were contenders after 4 years of a rebuild. It took them a long time to win it all, but they've been a contending team for most of the last decade, with a down season or two.
The Flames are admittedly in about year 6 since they started rebuilding after spending several years as a bubble team trying to make it in.

The teams that suck for a long period of time usually do because they have multiple bad rebuild phases in a row. The teams that took a long time to get good are usually ones that went through multiple rebuilds, but the 2nd or even 3rd (in Winnipeg's case) went well.

 

[duhmetreE]

What does Panarin change, in terms of the rebuild/retool?