Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXXI

[NernieBichols]

And many people are not, so that takes us back to why people are objecting.

Well I’m trying to temper everyone’s fears and prepare them

 

[Edge]

Foresight and 2-3 years down the line. Helping develop our players by having a guy of his caliber to be with or under. Roster constructment and slotting guys in right.

Come on edge really? are you playing devils advocate or what?

Not really, I'm pretty steadfast that the timing isn't there for this move.

The lone exception might be if this team comes away with Hughes. Maybe.

 

[Edge]

Well I’m trying to temper everyone’s fears and prepare them

Likewise, I'm trying to keep the steam engine from getting too far down the tracks before the cars are hooked up.

 

[NernieBichols]

Not really, I'm pretty steadfast that the timing isn't there for this move.

The lone exception might be if this team comes away with Hughes. Maybe.

I hear ya. I disagree though, just as steadfast. (Barring contract demands issues)

I’ve said this before, it reminds me a lot of the Gaborik signing and that worked out in spades. Rangers are a yr or so behind that pace, but the kids coming up are much more abundant this go around. Panarin is the perfect fit. We need a scoring winger.

 

[offdacrossbar]

you add panarin to this roster and what difference does it make ? no 13 or 36 and the rest is just ok guys with 93 and 20.

look at the cbus roster. that defense if pretty stacked certainly better than ours. the whole jackets team is better.

panarin won't make us anything more than another middling team trying to just make the playoffs.

 

[NernieBichols]

you add panarin to this roster and what difference does it make ? no 13 or 36 and the rest is just ok guys with 93 and 20.

look at the cbus roster. that defense if pretty stacked certainly better than ours. the whole jackets team is better.

panarin won't make us anything more than another middling team trying to just make the playoffs.

Jesus. What’s the end all be all with panarin and him making us middling. We got a team of 19/24 year olds with a bunch more kids coming, they are the ones that are gonna be the difference between middling and playoffs. Panarin just makes the team better. That’s the end all be all

 

[McRanger]

I could see Panarin if he was a UFA in 2020 or 2021 and we had just drafted Hughes and all our young players (especially on defense) had taken big steps and management legitimately thought the team could make some noise.

Otherwise I just dont see how Panarin moves the needle much with what we currently have.

 

[NernieBichols]

I could see Panarin if he was a UFA in 2020 or 2021 and we had just drafted Hughes and all our young players (especially on defense) had taken big steps and management legitimately thought the team could make some noise.

Otherwise I just dont see how Panarin moves the needle much with what we currently have.

It’s not about moving the needle. It’s about having him in place

 

[UlfSamuelsson]

Over the next few months we will see how serious this franchise is with the rebuild.

Are they going to cut it short and sign high profile talent?
Or will they take on a bad contract for a year and try and get something in return?

Truly believe if done right, NEXT year is the year we will be shooting for the #1 overall because we can potentially be very, very bad next year.

I’m under the impression we should sign short deals with high character vets so our young guys learn the game on and off the ice the right way.

 

[Ghost of jas]

Not really, I'm pretty steadfast that the timing isn't there for this move.

The lone exception might be if this team comes away with Hughes. Maybe.

While defense remains constructed as it currently is, even adding Hughes doesn’t make adding Panarin the right move.

And, I’m also of the opinion that the way the Kreider timeline has been described that he’s not getting moved at the draft.

 

[duhmetreE]

I'm confused, if Panarin isn't going to move this team from the 10-18 range to the 22-28 range, than what exactly are we doing signing him to a massive contract?

I feel like the Panarin argument kind of contradicts itself.

Our prospects don't come with enough guarantees (or high-end talent), but yet they will be who we will count on to successfully surround Panarin.

We're going to sign Panarin to make the team better, but he won't budge where we're drafting or shoot us up the standings.

We don't have enough prospects long-term, but we're done accumulating assets.

Panarin is the Tylenol solution right now. It masks the fever, and makes the headache go away just long enough for us to convince ourselves that the need isn't greater and that we may require more assistance.

I think we're a competitive team with Panarin and the obvious roster moves. So, I disagree entirely with this premise.

Getting better every year with the development of the youngins. We have a small window here with the ELCs and Mika at 5.3.

Your prospect pool continues to grow when you don't trade away picks.

We're not building around Panarin.. We're building around Mika. Getting him some support and an elite playmaker helps.

 

[duhmetreE]

While defense remains constructed as it currently is, even adding Hughes doesn’t make adding Panarin the right move.

And, I’m also of the opinion that the way the Kreider timeline has been described that he’s getting moved at the draft.

Things change drastically year over year.

Islanders are prime example

 

[Tawnos]

There has been exactly one FA on Panarin's level in the last 10 years (Tavares) so I'm not sure how the whole "let's wait until we are more ready to compete" methodology works out. Lets wait 3 years so we can sign...Ondrej Palat for 6M? (*The 2023-23 class is actually good if you assume Gaudreau/Barkov/Hertl/Jones/Lindholm/Rielly/Trocheck will make it there but you can't exactly assume that 3 years down the road)

I would put both Gaborik and Richards, at the time of signing, on Panarin's level. It's easy to forget that Richards was an 85-90 point player leading into signing with the Rangers. Hossa also is right at 10 years ago.

But otherwise, I agree. You can't count on getting a player like this in the future. And frankly, anyone who believes we won't need to add a player like this to our core, whenever it comes, is fooling themselves. Do we really want to risk not even having the opportunity?

 

[Edge]

While defense remains constructed as it currently is, even adding Hughes doesn’t make adding Panarin the right move.

And, I’m also of the opinion that the way the Kreider timeline has been described that he’s getting moved at the draft.

I tend to agree on the former. I'm unsure on the latter.

 

[nyr2k2]

Over the next few months we will see how serious this franchise is with the rebuild.

Are they going to cut it short and sign high profile talent?
Or will they take on a bad contract for a year and try and get something in return?

Truly believe if done right, NEXT year is the year we will be shooting for the #1 overall because we can potentially be very, very bad next year.

I’m under the impression we should sign short deals with high character vets so our young guys learn the game on and off the ice the right way.

I don't think trying to improve next season would be "cutting it short" in any sense. We've acquired a ton of assets over the past two seasons; unfortunately we haven't been able to land an absolute stud, undeniable franchise-level player, but there's no guarantee of that happening next year even if we're bad. I mean we could spend the next three years being horrible and due to the luck of the pull, not end up with a top three pick or anything.

Now, that's not to say you abandon your plans because luck might not be on your side, but if you think you've sufficiently refilled the cupboards and are in a position to begin building a competitor, then I think it's okay to do that. It's not cutting short the rebuild. It's just making an assessment of the team and deciding now is the time to make a move. Or not! I'm not advocating for one approach or the other. I do however believe that the team could feel they're ready to make a pivot. I actually thought they'd make somewhat of a pivot this season and was wrong, but that doesn't necessarily mean next year would be the same.

I really don't know what the team plans on doing, at this point. I like what they've done so far and have faith that they'll make the right decisions moving forward. If that means another year of suck, so be it. If they want to add, and start the real build up, that's cool, too.

 

[offdacrossbar]

panarin impact can only be maximized if the talent around him is actually there. future talent in the form of picks and prospects in the system arent likely to help enough.

the sad reality is, right now, panarin wont help enough to justify that type of commitment in money and term.

our best passer and set up guy is now in winnipeg. thats the guy panarin would have flourished with and visa versa.

 

[Edge]

I think we're a competitive team with Panarin and the obvious roster moves. So, I disagree entirely with this premise.

Getting better every year with the development of the youngins. We have a small window here with the ELCs and Mika at 5.3.

Your prospect pool continues to grow when you don't trade away picks.

We're not building around Panarin.. We're building around Mika. Getting him some support and an elite playmaker helps.

This team does not have the defense, the experience, the depth and several other factors to get to that higher level. And even if I play devil's advocate and say that we're close and will continue to add by not trading picks, I still don't see the timing matching up with giving the kids a fair and reasonable amount of time to get there.

And that's only if I ignore my belief that it would next to impossible not to make moves that require moving picks and prospects in order to get Panarin the support he needs.

So I end up seeing a scenario where either the majority of what we have becomes what we hope they can, and the timing is off. Or we have to move a good portion of what we have to make the timing fit, and then we don't have the long-term depth. I think both of those elements aligning is less likely than some of the other scenarios that have been suggested over the last several months.

But I think my inherent disagreement with the concept is contained with the line, "We have a small window here with the ELCs and Mika at 5.3."

To me, that's the core element I disagree with. This isn't our window. This isn't the time. I don't feel a sense or urgency to force this into a window, which it wouldn't be even if we did manage to pry one open.

I'll be honest, the Panarin move would scream of fear and impatience from the Rangers. The result would be a team that can probably maneuver itself into the playoffs, but never really be a true contender.

And I'll be blunt, I don't feel that's nearly good enough.

If this whole thing is going to fail, I'd rather fail while trying to build something great and sustainable, than limit myself to something that gives me more instant gratification.

 

[Tawnos]

@Edge why does bringing in Panarin on a long-term contract have to be a short-term move? On a timeline of when our youth should be hitting it's stride, Panarin will be 2-3 years into a 7 year deal.

This is ABSOLUTELY not about instant gratification for me. It's about long-term roster building.

 

[MetalJaws]

If the Rangers get a top 5 pick, they should sign Panarin. If they get a pick 7-12, they should do nothing and go for another top 3 pick next year. He will likely move us up to the bubble position in 19-20, Pretty much ending our rebuild.

It sucks to wait, but without a top 3 talent or hitting a home run on one of the other draft picks we've chosen to find that elite talent factor or even Franchise level player, I fear we'll be here again in 12 years.

Sure, Dach, Cozens and Byram at 4OA, 5OA and 6OA might be elite in 3 years, but might as well stock the cabinet and grab another of the like next year to make up for the lack of Elite/Franchise guys we currently have. Get one more kick at the can next year if we can't get THAT guy this year.

I firmly believe we will win the lottery and get a Top 3 pick. Our first since Brad Park in 66. We're due. It would obviously expedite the process and make our team a threat especially with Panarin in the fold regardless of his cap hit, that would mean a guaranteed elite winger with another sure thing elite/franchise guy in the pipeline (Hughes, Kakko, Podkolzin).

That combo with the guys we already have would def. fun to watch and climb the standings.

 

[Edge]

@Edge why does bringing in Panarin on a long-term contract have to be a short-term move? On a timeline of when our youth should be hitting it's stride, Panarin will be 2-3 years into a 7 year deal.

This is ABSOLUTELY not about instant gratification for me. It's about long-term roster building.

For starters, I think there will still be significant learning and growth in 2-3 years. I do not believe the window "starts" in 2-3 years, though I do believe we should hopefully see good progress. I am VERY concerned when I see people throwing out 2-3 years as a landmark time frame. Chytil and Andersson are two to three years out from 2017 between now and next year. That means guys like Miller, Kravtsov, etc. will be roughly the same point a year from now, which means 2019's class will be roughly the same point two to three years from now.

And that's assuming that there are no setbacks and everyone whose name we're mentioning more or less becomes what we hope. The reality is that seldom works that way, and even when it does, it's not usually on the timetable we envision.

But let's even say you're right, and this is indeed a long-term move, I don't see Panarin being that guy who gets this team where people are dreaming, in the time frame they are wanting. If Columbus hasn't been that team, with some of the names they have on their roster, and Panarin at his peak, why is the expectation that we'd have better success with an older Panarin and a younger supporting cast?

 

[Trxjw]

Every time a big name hits free agency we go through the "this kind of talent is never available" debate. Richards was the first #1C to hit the market since Savard and an elite pivot. Gaborik was one of the best goal scorers in the game. Shattenkirk was undoubtedly a #1 defensemen and elite PPQB. All of them we had to get because those kinds of talents just never hit the market. All 3 of them burnt out within 3 years of signing here and only one of them ever delivered on what they were actually capable of.

Is Panarin a great player? Absolutely. Do I want to risk $11m+ for 7 more years that he'll be that guy for the whole term? Absolutely not. Do I think he's worth that money? Absolutely not. Stay the course and build from within. We've had twenty five years of high paid mercenaries with nothing to show for it and nearly every signing was prefaced with "these kind of players never make it to free agency".

 

[Tawnos]

For starters, I think there will still be significant learning and growth in 2-3 years. I do not believe the window "starts" in 2-3 years, though I do believe we should hopefully see good progress. I am VERY concerned when I see people throwing out 2-3 years as a landmark time from. Chytil and Andersson are two to three years out from 2017 between now and next year. That means guys like Miller, Kravtsov, etc. will be roughly the same point a year from now, which means 2019's class will be roughly the same point two to three years from now.

And that's assuming that there are no setbacks and everyone whose name we're mentioning more or less becomes what we hope. The reality is that seldom works that way, and even when it does, it's not usually on the timetable we envision.

But let's even say you're right, and this is indeed a long-term move, I don't see Panarin being that guy who gets this team where people are dreaming. If Columbus hasn't been that team, with some of the names they have on their roster, and Panarin at his peak, why is the expectatation that we'd have better success with an older Panarin and a younger supporting cast?

Columbus is the Rangers of this past window minus HoF-level goaltending... which is to say their roster isn't amazing. It takes overachieving on top of that goaltending they aren't getting and they don't do that. The Rangers skaters were greater than the sum of their parts for their window. That's not happening in Columbus.

The successful rebuilds usually involve their top prospects starting to contribute in D+3. Not at the level they will in their prime, but significantly. At least that's my impression. In two years, that will be our 2017 and 2018 picks. In 3 years, that will be our 2019 picks as well. Frankly, if that isn't happening, they're going to need a reset rebuild anyway.

 

[True Blue]

Rangers gotta hope they get lucky in the lottery, or trade up for a guy, or initially land in a spot where they know they are gonna get an impact player staying put. Offer sheets and/or trades for those players or guys teams decide to move for flexibility, and yes sign top tier UFAs.

You guys are gonna be disappointed if you think the rangers are gonna be gunning for the most ping pong balls after this season. Seriously disappointed. I don’t know what in the world would make anyone think that. Gorton so clearly said ‘hopefully doing this quick’ in his deadline pressers and people just glance over it. It’s gonna be a big summer if Gorton has his say, and I doubt people will be disappointed in the end.
(Some will, bc they want their vision of things to play out bc they think they got the only way, reasonable fans just want a sustainable restocking farm system and a team that has a real chance to win a cup every year. They ain’t in this for 3 years of bottoming out. Sorry folks)

Can you point to anything at all that would support your belief that the rebuild is over and Gorton is all in on UFAs this summer?

 

[Tawnos]

Every time a big name hits free agency we go through the "this kind of talent is never available" debate. Richards was the first #1C to hit the market since Savard and an elite pivot. Gaborik was one of the best goal scorers in the game. Shattenkirk was undoubtedly a #1 defensemen and elite PPQB. All of them we had to get because those kinds of talents just never hit the market. All 3 of them burnt out within 3 years of signing here and only one of them ever delivered on what they were actually capable of.

Is Panarin a great player? Absolutely. Do I want to risk $11m+ for 7 more years that he'll be that guy for the whole term? Absolutely not. Do I think he's worth that money? Absolutely not. Stay the course and build from within. We've had twenty five years of high paid mercenaries with nothing to show for it and nearly every signing was prefaced with "these kind of players never make it to free agency".

Just something I want to mention. $11m/7 years for Panarin is essentially the same contract that Gaborik got, plus 2 years.

 

[True Blue]

Why is the rebuild over bc you sign a free agent. That’s your thing. Your defining it as such.

Because rebuilding teams do not sign UFAs. That's not my thing. What big UFAs have rebuilding teams signed under your observance?

Rebuilding is exactly what they are doing, just bc you sign a couple free agents when your gonna have over $20 million in cap space is not abandoning the rebuild.

What you are doing is tying up valuable cap space on a team that will not be truly competitive.
[/QUOTE]Like i just said, the rangers will never be worse than right now and they aren’t nearly as bad as some teams right now, bc they compete right and other teams don’t. They will never end up bottom 5 unless it’s this year.[/QUOTE]
Wait until they have to play next season without a Hayes and a month's worth of a rejuvenated Zucc. Oh, and a further depreciated Staal, Shattenkirk & Smith.

Inheritly every guy will be better next year and the system and coach will be better, and they will add a few players even if it isn’t panarin, so what in the world makes anyone think they will be worse than this year.

Every player will be better? When has this ever happened in the entire history of the NHL?

It’s fantasy mode wishing. It’s not happening. They aren’t that bad. And they aren’t gonna stripe themselves to make themselves that bad, that’s the wrong direction. It’s already been striped. Couple more D contracts and it’s a brand new team. Rebuild/build what’s the difference now

Who is talking about more striping, unless it is for the middle players like Nametsnikov? What are these D contracts, when you have the old D still here and largely untreadeable?