Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXXI

[Edge]

Everyone tends to feel that Tampa has been the gold standard for drafting over the last decade or so, and they'd have a good argument.

Consider that even with Stamkos, Hedman, Kucherov, etc. in tow, it still took time for Tampa to hit their window, for guys to develop, and for the team to take their success to a new level. And even then, there were still potholes along the way, and some guys busted.

So when we start thinking about two or three years down the line, let's think about how long it took some of today's top teams to reach that point --- aka the teams we are looking at with some degree of envy in 2019.

The collection of young talent we have is impressive, and it's impressive by Rangers' recent history. But we're not in uncharted waters here. Our depth and talent level isn't so amazing that we're going to defy a lot of the precedents and time-tested case studies that we've seen out there. It will take time.

And it will probably take more time than a lot of people realize.

 

[Tawnos]

Because rebuilding teams do not sign UFAs. That's not my thing. What big UFAs have rebuilding teams signed under your observance?

How many times do people need to show that this is demonstrably false before you stop repeating it?

Anaheim - Niedermeyer
Pittsburgh - Gonchar
Boston - Chara
Chicago - Campbell

 

[Ghost of jas]

I tend to agree on the former. I'm unsure on the latter.

See my correction.

 

[Edge]

Columbus is the Rangers of this past window minus HoF-level goaltending... which is to say their roster isn't amazing. It takes overachieving on top of that goaltending they aren't getting and they don't do that. The Rangers skaters were greater than the sum of their parts for their window. That's not happening in Columbus.

The successful rebuilds usually involve their top prospects starting to contribute in D+3. Not at the level they will in their prime, but significantly. At least that's my impression. In two years, that will be our 2017 and 2018 picks. In 3 years, that will be our 2019 picks as well. Frankly, if that isn't happening, they're going to need a reset rebuild anyway.

I think you just hit the nail on the head.

Columbus does not have HOF-level goaltending and you don't believe their roster is amazing.

I do not see the Rangers having HOF-level goaltending or an amazing roster within 3 years.

And even if we are successful rebuild, with top prospects contributing, our roster will not yet be firing on all cylinders.

And if the pressure is on these kids to produce sooner, rather than on their timeline, because we want to fit it into the window of a free agent signing who would be entering his 30s, I would argue that we would've gone about things the wrong way and we will have done this to ourselves.

 

[True Blue]

Even if it not a "true contender", you are icing a team that "already is" somewhat difficult to play against, but NOW you have added a legit scoring threat that might not be what you are looking for "within the 1st 2 years" of his contract, but hopefully by the 3rd year......things would be looking very much better.

But not one that will be materially better. And you've signed a player to a 7-8 year deal to double digit millions and rife with NMC/NTC.

Not to mention the whole league will know the Rangers are on the rise

That and $2.75 gets you a subway ride.

......additonal players will be available, and it just might draw them WITH Panarin especially.

YES....Spend SPend SPEND!!!!!! Getting a team of UFA big contracts has always worked out so well.

You cannot "count on" what is coming, if it manifests then great......but "sucking him up" now, is their only chance at doing so. Again, what if Philly, Pitt or the Islanders grab him? Their gain, is our loss. One step forward, 2 steps back.

You can say that about any player that has ever hit the free-agent market. What if the other teams get him and we don't?

Oh yeah, lets wait for Kravtsov at 20 to start tearing it up. How about Panarin AND Kravtsov? He needs to be the luxury, not the necessity. Know what I mean?

I do know what you mean. Abandoning the rebuild and making efforts at a half a$$ed retool. Sorry. No offense.

In regard to Hayes......who is to say he ISN'T in the plans for next year?

Nothing from any hockey news or or own hockey insiders indicates anything like that.

Or......not to worry, we will win the LOTTO next year! Right?

Who is talking about that?

Lets just relax for now. We have a decent shot at having 5, yes 5.... 1st round picks.

A. I would not characterize banking on Tampa to win a Cup or Dallas to advance into the Conference Finals as "decent chance". B. It's not like all of these picks are top-15. As a matter of fact, right now only one is.

 

[Tawnos]

I think you just hit the nail on the head.

Columbus does not have HOF-level goaltending and you don't believe their roster is amazing.

I do not see the Rangers having HOF-level goaltending or an amazing roster within 3 years.

And even if we are successful rebuild, with top prospects contributing, our roster will not yet be firing on all cylinders.

And if the pressure is on these kids to produce sooner, rather than on their timeline, because we want to fit it into the window of a free agent signing who would be entering his 30s, I would argue that we would've gone about things the wrong way and we will have done this to ourselves.

I don't believe it's the right course of action to hedge against your top prospects not hitting their ceilings.

 

[Ghost of jas]

Can you point to anything at all that would support your belief that the rebuild is over and Gorton is all in on UFAs this summer?

I know you’re not asking me for an answer, but I see no evidence to support this line of thinking.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

How many times do people need to show that this is demonstrably false before you stop repeating it?

Anaheim - Niedermeyer
Pittsburgh - Gonchar
Boston - Chara
Chicago - Campbell

They were rebuilding?

News to me. They had a down year after making the finals, the lockout happened, then he signed.

Gonchar yup, after the Pens had drafted Crosby and Malkin, Ditto Chicago with Campbell.

So your real lone example is Chara and the Bruins.

Interesting enough, every example you cited was a d-man signing. I think EK makes more sense than Panarin even if the risk is higher.

 

[Edge]

I don't believe it's the right course of action to hedge against your top prospects not hitting their ceilings.

Whose hedging? I want more of them in the organization, and more prospect depth, and more time for them.

I'm the guy out there clapping back at people whose opinions on our prospects rise and fall with the tide.

And that's why I feel strongly that this is going to take time, even if damn near everything falls into place.

 

[Tawnos]

They were rebuilding?

News to me. They had a down year after making the finals, the lockout happened, then he signed.

Gonchar yup, after the Pens had drafted Crosby and Malkin, Ditto Chicago with Campbell.

So your real lone example is Chara and the Bruins.

Interesting enough, every example you cited was a d-man signing. I think EK makes more sense than Panarin even if the risk is higher.

Yeah, no. Niedermeyer was signed after the team missed the playoffs for 4 of the previous 5 seasons. 03-04 wasn't a random down year... 02-03 was a random up year. Yes, they made the final the one year they made it, but they were still in rebuilding mode coming out of the lockout. And the Penguins and Blackhawks were still rebuilding when they signed those guys. Sure, they were a couple of years into it... but that's true of the Rangers too.

I agree it's interesting that those were all D. And Campbell didn't even work out. But my point was limited to "rebuilding teams do sign UFAs, including successful rebuilds"

 

[duhmetreE]

This team does not have the defense, the experience, the depth and several other factors to get to that higher level. And even if I play devil's advocate and say that we're close and will continue to add by not trading picks, I still don't see the timing matching up with giving the kids a fair and reasonable amount of time to get there.

And that's only if I ignore my belief that it would next to impossible not to make moves that require moving picks and prospects in order to get Panarin the support he needs.

So I end up seeing a scenario where either the majority of what we have becomes what we hope they can, and the timing is off. Or we have to move a good portion of what we have to make the timing fit, and then we don't have the long-term depth. I think both of those elements aligning is less likely than some of the other scenarios that have been suggested over the last several months.

But I think my inherent disagreement with the concept is contained with the line, "We have a small window here with the ELCs and Mika at 5.3."

To me, that's the core element I disagree with. This isn't our window. This isn't the time. I don't feel a sense or urgency to force this into a window, which it wouldn't be even if we did manage to pry one open.

I'll be honest, the Panarin move would scream of fear and impatience from the Rangers. The result would be a team that can probably maneuver itself into the playoffs, but never really be a true contender.

And I'll be blunt, I don't feel that's nearly good enough.

If this whole thing is going to fail, I'd rather fail while trying to build something great and sustainable, than limit myself to something that gives me more instant gratification.

Wait, why does signing Panarin mean this can't be great and sustainable? I completely disagree with that notion. This isn't only 'instant gratification'. What does Panarin change in the retool-rebuild?

I also think we need to be competitive. We need to have a 'winning' environment. This is more than just Fantasy Hockey and putting names in slots. How long does Quinn's approach last, if we continue to lose? How long does Mika keep grinding? How long does Mika stay? Do we lose our '1C' because we waited too long and didn't support him?

If we sign Panarin and our prospects develop/pan out, we're contenders.
If we sign Panarin and our prospects DO NOT pan out, nothing changed.
If we dont sign Panarin and our prospect develop/pan out, we're contenders.
If we do not sign Panarin and our prospects DO NOT pan out, we're EDM

Panarin does not hurt the rebuild BUT is a potentiator for the plan. The biggest thing, you give Mika some help and create a competitive environment.

 

[Tawnos]

Whose hedging? I want more of them in the organization, and more prospect depth, and more time for them.

I'm the guy out there clapping back at people whose opinions on our prospects rise and fall with the tide.

And that's why I feel strongly that this is going to take time, even if damn near everything falls into place.

I feel like your timeline is off, mostly. 2-3 years from now is 4-5 years into the rebuild. Most rebuilds don't take longer than that to kick into gear.

 

[True Blue]

Signing Panarin comes with it's own set of risks and rewards. We could be looking back in 5 years thinking he was the missing piece, or that he messed up the rebuild. I'm personally not comfortable enough in our prospect group that I would sign him. Especially our forward prospects.

So your rebuild is centered around a UFA?

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Yeah, no. Niedermeyer was signed after the team missed the playoffs for 4 of the previous 5 seasons. Yes, they made the final the one year they made it, but they were still in rebuilding mode coming out of the lockout. And the Penguins and Blackhawks were still rebuilding when they signed those guys. Sure, they were a couple of years into it... but that's true of the Rangers too.[/QUOTE]

Yeah I think glossing over the fact that they already had their core players in the mix or were just gifted a generational talent is a pretty big oversight.

 

[duhmetreE]

Every time a big name hits free agency we go through the "this kind of talent is never available" debate. Richards was the first #1C to hit the market since Savard and an elite pivot. Gaborik was one of the best goal scorers in the game. Shattenkirk was undoubtedly a #1 defensemen and elite PPQB. All of them we had to get because those kinds of talents just never hit the market. All 3 of them burnt out within 3 years of signing here and only one of them ever delivered on what they were actually capable of.

Is Panarin a great player? Absolutely. Do I want to risk $11m+ for 7 more years that he'll be that guy for the whole term? Absolutely not. Do I think he's worth that money? Absolutely not. Stay the course and build from within. We've had twenty five years of high paid mercenaries with nothing to show for it and nearly every signing was prefaced with "these kind of players never make it to free agency".

Richards was 31. Shattenkirk was not a #1 defenseman and I hated the signing from Day 0.

Gaborik was fragile and not the same type of player IMO.

 

[Tawnos]

Yeah I think glossing over the fact that they already had their core players in the mix or were just gifted a generational talent is a pretty big oversight.

I'm not glossing over it. The Rangers either already have some of their core players in the mix (organizationally, not up with the big club yet necessarily) or this isn't going to be a successful rebuild.

 

[Ghost of jas]

Yeah, no. Niedermeyer was signed after the team missed the playoffs for 4 of the previous 5 seasons. Yes, they made the final the one year they made it, but they were still in rebuilding mode coming out of the lockout. And the Penguins and Blackhawks were still rebuilding when they signed those guys. Sure, they were a couple of years into it... but that's true of the Rangers too.

If the letter is considered to be the line of demarcation, then the Rangers have been at this rebuild for a year. I would argue that if the bottom hadn’t fallen out at the start of January 2018, Ranger management would likely continue the ‘rebuild on the fly’, and we wouldn’t be seeing the complete deconstruction of the prior core, overdrive of asset accumulation and the patient approach to player development. It’s very possible that Quinn isn’t hired and the Rangers are spinning their wheels with AV still at the helm. So, no, the Rangers haven’t been at this approach for multiple years.

 

[Edge]

I feel like your timeline is off, mostly. 2-3 years from now is 4-5 years into the rebuild. Most rebuilds don't take longer than that to kick into gear.

Kick into gear, or contend?

Two very different concepts for me.

And looking at today's most successful teams, that built substantially through the draft, I think you'd be surprised at how far some of those timelines stretch.

 

[Edge]

Wait, why does signing Panarin mean this can't be great and sustainable? I completely disagree with that notion. This isn't only 'instant gratification'. What does Panarin change in the retool-rebuild?

I also think we need to be competitive. We need to have a 'winning' environment. This is more than just Fantasy Hockey and putting names in slots. How long does Quinn's approach last, if we continue to lose? How long does Mika keep grinding? How long does Mika stay? Do we lose our '1C' because we waited too long and didn't support him?

If we sign Panarin and our prospects develop/pan out, we're contenders.
If we sign Panarin and our prospects DO NOT pan out, nothing changed.
If we dont sign Panarin and our prospect develop/pan out, we're contenders.
If we do not sign Panarin and our prospects DO NOT pan out, we're EDM

Panarin does not hurt the rebuild BUT is a potentiator for the plan. The biggest thing, you give Mika some help and create a competitive environment.

I've already outlined all of that in other posts.

 

[Ghost of jas]

Kick into gear, or contend?

Two very different concepts for me.

And looking at today's most successful teams, that built substantially through the draft, I think you'd be surprised at how far some of those timelines stretch.

And that’s because there are going to be mistakes made, even if they are eventually successful.

 

[Trxjw]

Richards was 31. Shattenkirk was not a #1 defenseman and I hated the signing from Day 0.

Gaborik was fragile and not the same type of player IMO.

This just expands on my point though. Every one of those guys was going to be the exception to all the guys who flopped in the past and yet they flopped just the same. "Oh this guy is different" should be the headline of every free agent signing.

I just don't see the point in signing him. He might make the team marginally better for the first few years of his deal, but then what? We have a depreciating $11m asset on the roster to navigate while finding money for the good young talent we've developed? Hard pass.

 

[Off Sides]

Crosby and Malkin

Toews and Kane

Bergeron and Krejci

Getzlaf and Perry

Chytil and Lias

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Gorton will absolutely go after Panarin. Whether is comes to NY is up to Panarin.

 

[Tawnos]

If the letter is considered to be the line of demarcation, then the Rangers have been at this rebuild for a year. I would argue that if the bottom hadn’t fallen out at the start of January 2018, Ranger management would likely continue the ‘rebuild on the fly’, and we wouldn’t be seeing the complete deconstruction of the prior core, overdrive of asset accumulation and the patient approach to player development. It’s very possible that Quinn isn’t hired and the Rangers are spinning their wheels with AV still at the helm. So, no, the Rangers haven’t been at this approach for multiple years:

The letter isn't the line of demarcation in terms of the status of the rebuild. The Stepan trade is. All the letter did was acknowledge this is the direction they're committing to, but they moved in that direction earlier. This will be their 3rd rebuilding draft.

 

[True Blue]

I know you’re not asking me for an answer, but I see no evidence to support this line of thinking.

Nor I