Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXXI

[Edge]

Add as many pieces as possible the next 2 years continuing the sell off. The big, toxic contracts all expire then anyways. If we sign free agents 2019 + 2020 they should be short term deals with the intent of acquiring even more deadline assets. If there is an opportunity to get a young gun, a unicorn offer sheet might be in the stars. Get this very Young team to gel together attaining “a win or die mentality” playing a tough, straight forward game. Evaluate the teams needs in 1 + 2 years to complete the work using a plethora of accumulated assets in hockey trades plus eventually dipping into free agency to getting the final few elite pieces. Cap space and a huge NYR prospect pool (if we draft right) will be our weapons. Use them wisely - and we have a very bright future. No more sentimental bs

The sentimentality was definitely there in abundance with this prior bunch.

But I agree that this is a team that needs to focus on talent, depth, and patience.

I'd like to see something similar in place to what he had heading into 1991. A lot of young talent, a lot of depth, and then making moves from our positions of strength.

 

[GAGLine]

For all the talk of needing a top 3 pick to succeed, and for it being the apparent benchmark of this rebuild for a lot of people. It's very likely it doesn't happen. What then? I don't want to hear the stats on needing the 1st-3rd pick. I don't need to be convinced. I'm asking about the fluidity of the plan, not the theory.

What is the strategy if we don't get it? 3 years in and we've had 7th/8th/11th picks overall. Keep going? Failed rebuild? Move out of it?

This is a pretty realistic scenario. It's the one that makes me lean towards being open minded on Panarin and UFAs, because no matter what you think, no owner is going to approve some open ended rebuild on account on not hitting on a 16-25% lotto ticket cause your team is consistently a tier above awful. A season will count against the rebuild if you hit 3rd or 10th. There's no punting the 5 year plan to start next year cause this year we weren't bad enough.

We need to fix the defense. We can talk about getting top picks and elite players all day, but the bottom line is that the defense needs to be better. The old guard has to be moved out and new blood brought in. We don't have all the pieces that we need yet on defense, and most of the pieces we do have will require time to mature. Hajek and Lindgren are just getting their feet wet. Miller, Lundkvist, Keane, Rykov, Gross, etc. are all multiple years away from being consistent NHL players.

Shatty, Staal and Smith will all be gone within 2 years. What will our defense look like to start the 2021-22 season? We need a shutdown type player on the right side. Keane is our only RH dman with decent size among those with a legitimate shot to make an impact. We need some beef on the right side, someone who can play heavy minutes against the other teams' top players. My current dream is that we trade Skjei for Trouba, then draft Byram to replace Skjei. My current wet dream is that we do all of that, but trade Kreider for the pick we use to select Byram and select Hughes with our pick.

 

[Ola]

If Gorton wants to manage this situation in a similar fashion to Cheveldayoff, then that’s fine by me. The key caveat is that they’d need to start becoming a much better drafting and development team outside the first round (hi Akil Thomas), and they need to identify the right young players to augment this core.

From what they’ve said about our own players, it appears like they to err on the side of caution when it comes to projecting a player’s added value over time. It’s a good way to hedge your bets and mitigate risk, but it’s not and should never be an equivocal approach to all players, and I personally don’t believe Panarin fits that mold. So even if they don’t sign Panarin, I’d really hope they utilize their resources to find a high-value player in the 22-25 range. Even next year, if nothing changes, I still see them being in the 7-9 range in the lottery.

Great post. If we have a decent frame in place in NY — and right now Ziba is more or less providing that alone, but also with the help of TDA and co — good things will happen with the kids that we provide a good shot.

I am sure Brandon Lemieux will become an asset with a good amount of value in just a year or two. TDA is getting there. Heck even Ryan Strome has made some noise lately. 10 pts in last 11, 20 pts in 45 games since coming here.

Accumulate more value within the organization that any other franchise. Maintain a great cap situation. And so forth.

 

[Off Sides]

CBA article 9.1.b:
View attachment 195605

Using this information, the entry level contracts for our EU prospects, if they would sign this year, would be:

2 years:
Patrik Virta, Igor Shestyorkin, Yegor Rykov (if signed on April 17th or later),

3 years:
Yegor Rykov (if signed before April 16th), Dominik Lakatos (if signed before April 8th), Tarmo Reunanen, Vitali Kravtsov, Calle Själin, Jacob Ragnarsson, Nils Lundkvist

Thanks,

Just trying to point out these entry level contract ends are not that far off.

So when people are looking at all the Rangers cap space for the 2021 off-season and they are seeing Lundqvist, Staal, Shattenkirk, Smith all coming off the books, much of that could already be spent as having 7 or so players all end their entry levels the same off-season if extended is going to cost a decent chunk of cap hit, especially should any of them get long term deals right off their entry levels.

Then even beyond those players, the 2018 draftees, the 2019 draftees as well are going to have their entry levels end.

Add in bridge deals possibly ending too in that same time span.

It just seems that all of that getting more and more expensive is being somewhat ignored in the conversation about signing expensive UFAs who would still be signed throughout all that.

 

[Barnaby]

Ok. Then let's use the term "materially better". to me, 6 points ain't it. And again, is the presumption that the team now did not trade Zucc or Hayes? And that those two players and Panarin now need to be figured into the budget?

I'm arguing the same point you are in that I don't think it's a wise move at this point.

I'm just saying they would be mildly better... 3 wins... 4 wins... 5 wins... who knows... but that would be a detriment to the long term strategy of finding cornerstone pieces through the draft, THEN supplementing that with a free agent or two or three.

Might be the right player (though I'd rather err with a C or D), but the wrong time.

 

[NernieBichols]

I'm arguing the same point you are in that I don't think it's a wise move at this point.

I'm just saying they would be mildly better... 3 wins... 4 wins... 5 wins... who knows... but that would be a detriment to the long term strategy of finding cornerstone pieces through the draft, THEN supplementing that with a free agent or two or three.

Might be the right player (though I'd rather err with a C or D), but the wrong time.

I can’t believe people are trying to construct things so they get 3, 4, 5 less wins a years. This is azz backwards. Sorry I was calling for a rebuild back 2016, but I am not down with running or building my team this way. It’s a losers mentality. Try to make the god dang playoffs next year. Insanity.

And by that I mean try to win every game. The roster next year is gonna be so young. The rangers will have a team of 19-24 year olds with a 6-7 ‘older guys’. These young guys are the 1st wave of what we hope will be a big chunk of our long term roster, you want them playing to win every game and you want them surrounded by quality players. But still come deadline time, if you’ve got a UFA to be with value, trade him and fill in with another kid. Continue to manage your UFAs and UFAs to be the same way, but you want them playing to try and make the playoffs, otherwise your turning into Edmonton.

 

[SA16]

There has been exactly one FA on Panarin's level in the last 10 years (Tavares) so I'm not sure how the whole "let's wait until we are more ready to compete" methodology works out. Lets wait 3 years so we can sign...Ondrej Palat for 6M? (*The 2023-23 class is actually good if you assume Gaudreau/Barkov/Hertl/Jones/Lindholm/Rielly/Trocheck will make it there but you can't exactly assume that 3 years down the road)

 

[NernieBichols]

There has been exactly one FA on Panarin's level in the last 10 years (Tavares) so I'm not sure how the whole "let's wait until we are more ready to compete" methodology works out. Lets wait 3 years so we can sign...Ondrej Palat for 6M? (*The 2023-23 class is actually good if you assume Gaudreau/Barkov/Hertl/Jones/Lindholm/Rielly/Trocheck will make it there but you can't exactly assume that 3 years down the road)

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Did I say that right?

 

[effen]

If you sign Panarin this off-season, you're forced to bridge Buch, ADA, Pionk. In addition to adding nothing else.

Just makes more problems 2 years down the road. Fat 'no' for me.

 

[Edge]

There has been exactly one FA on Panarin's level in the last 10 years (Tavares) so I'm not sure how the whole "let's wait until we are more ready to compete" methodology works out. Lets wait 3 years so we can sign...Ondrej Palat for 6M? (*The 2023-23 class is actually good if you assume Gaudreau/Barkov/Hertl/Jones/Lindholm/Rielly/Trocheck will make it there but you can't exactly assume that 3 years down the road)

I think the big objection is that it doesn't really solve anything long-term.

This is a team that still needs to be stockpiling assets, potentially moving assets, and probably having somewhat higher picks, while allowing a young base to grow.

That's not a natural fit when you start talking about bringing in someone like Panarin. It changes the whole dynamic, and ultimately, we don't yet have enough depth in place to sustain and support that dynamic over the long haul.

For me, signing Panarin is like adding a patio and balcony to a house that needs foundation work, a good deal of re-wiring and some plumbing.

 

[NernieBichols]

Or panarin is an pricey tool that makes the building a lot smoother, higher quality, and faster/easier and helps the rest of the job come together

 

[Edge]

Or panarin is an pricey tool that makes the building a lot smoother, higher quality, and faster/easier and helps the rest of the job come together

A quality hammer is only as useful as the nails it has to drive.

Otherwise it's a very expensive conversation piece.

 

[Beer League Sniper]

There has been exactly one FA on Panarin's level in the last 10 years (Tavares) so I'm not sure how the whole "let's wait until we are more ready to compete" methodology works out. Lets wait 3 years so we can sign...Ondrej Palat for 6M? (*The 2023-23 class is actually good if you assume Gaudreau/Barkov/Hertl/Jones/Lindholm/Rielly/Trocheck will make it there but you can't exactly assume that 3 years down the road)

This is precisely why, even though I don't think Gorton is going after Panarin, and personally don't support the move, I wouldn't be that upset if we landed him.

I just think acquiring Panarin requires a whole lot of other things to go right in regards to drafting. A longer rebuild means you have more shots at getting cheap high-end talent via the draft. Signing Panarin more than likely pulls us out of the rebuild and puts us on path to a "window of contention." If all of our draft picks pan out, and quite a few meet or exceed their projections, we'll be fine. If they sputter and stagnate as a group, we're in for a mediocre future.

Signing Panarin comes with it's own set of risks and rewards. We could be looking back in 5 years thinking he was the missing piece, or that he messed up the rebuild. I'm personally not comfortable enough in our prospect group that I would sign him. Especially our forward prospects.

 

[Edge]

This is precisely why, even though I don't think Gorton is going after Panarin, and personally don't support the move, I wouldn't be that upset if we landed him.

I just think acquiring Panarin requires a whole lot of other things to go right in regards to drafting. A longer rebuild means you have more shots at getting cheap high-end talent via the draft. Signing Panarin more than likely pulls us out of the rebuild and puts us on path to a "window of contention." If all of our draft picks pan out, and quite a few meet or exceed their projections, we'll be fine. If they sputter and stagnate as a group, we're in for a mediocre future.

Signing Panarin comes with it's own set of risks and rewards. We could be looking back in 5 years thinking he was the missing piece, or that he messed up the rebuild. I'm personally not comfortable enough in our prospect group that I would sign him. Especially our forward prospects.

So if our prospect group isn't good enough to evoke comfort now, how can we expect it to suddenly be what is needed to successfully surround a guy like Panarin?

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

There has been exactly one FA on Panarin's level in the last 10 years (Tavares) so I'm not sure how the whole "let's wait until we are more ready to compete" methodology works out. Lets wait 3 years so we can sign...Ondrej Palat for 6M? (*The 2023-23 class is actually good if you assume Gaudreau/Barkov/Hertl/Jones/Lindholm/Rielly/Trocheck will make it there but you can't exactly assume that 3 years down the road)

Which would be all well and good if UFA were the only way to add impact players from outside of your organization and the draft.

 

[NernieBichols]

I just don’t see how anyone thinks the rangers will be worse next year, and that higher picks are gonna be in the cards going forward. 3 years of picking the top #10, next year is 10-18 regardless of any moves, Panarin doesn’t change that or cost them anything, he will make everyone better, he will help slot everyone. He rangers will have plenty of money to sign their RFAs. He’s not gonna move the rangers from that 10-18 range into 22-28, and we will have an impact scorer in the hand. To me it’s a no brainer depending on the terms of the deal

 

[NernieBichols]

A quality hammer is only as useful as the nails it has to drive.

Otherwise it's a very expensive conversation piece.

How about an air compressor and gun?

How about a generator?

How about a boon-truck?

I could go on and on. Panarin is a quality of product in its prime that makes everything better. Low mileage on that tool as well.

(Now we’re really dehumanizing athletes. Fing tools)

 

[Beer League Sniper]

So if our prospect group isn't good enough to evoke comfort now, how can we expect it to suddenly be what is needed to successfully surround a guy like Panarin?

You're getting at my point. Another year of development from Chytil, Kravstov, Andersson, Miller, and friends would go a long way, plus whomever we pick up this draft. But, you don't get to decide when a player on the level of Panarin becomes available.

I don't personally support signing him, but it's a tough call. I'm not going to crucify Gorton if he thinks it's the right move.

 

[Edge]

I just don’t see how anyone thinks the rangers will be worse next year, and that higher picks are gonna be in the cards going forward. 3 years of picking the top #10, next year is 10-18 regardless of any moves, Panarin doesn’t change that or cost them anything, he will make everyone better, he will help slot everyone. He rangers will have plenty of money to sign their RFAs. He’s not gonna move the rangers from that 10-18 range into 22-28, and we will have an impact scorer in the hand. To me it’s a no brainer depending on the terms of the deal

I'm confused, if Panarin isn't going to move this team from the 10-18 range to the 22-28 range, than what exactly are we doing signing him to a massive contract?

I feel like the Panarin argument kind of contradicts itself.

Our prospects don't come with enough guarantees (or high-end talent), but yet they will be who we will count on to successfully surround Panarin.

We're going to sign Panarin to make the team better, but he won't budge where we're drafting or shoot us up the standings.

We don't have enough prospects long-term, but we're done accumulating assets.

Panarin is the Tylenol solution right now. It masks the fever, and makes the headache go away just long enough for us to convince ourselves that the need isn't greater and that we may require more assistance.

 

[SA16]

Which would be all well and good if UFA were the only way to add impact players from outside of your organization and the draft.

It is not 2015 anymore. You are not guaranteed a top 2 pick by finishing last in the league and the Rangers aren't that bad. The most likely scenario for them going forward is going to be drafting in the 8-10 range. Adding Panarin would drop that a bit but he's not changing everything in one year. If he's worth 6-8 points a year (random number) that makes the team better but it's still likely in the lottery. This isn't the NBA. That's fine. That's why he will be getting 7 years somewhere he is expected to help throughout the deal not just in year 1. And when he's not as good in year 6 or 7 chances are he still will be a valuable piece and at that time his cap hit percent will be significantly lower than next year anyway.

Adding a player via UFA is always better than trading for one or offer sheeting one (assuming similar quality of player obviously) as it does not cost any assets.

 

[Edge]

You're getting at my point. Another year of development from Chytil, Kravstov, Andersson, Miller, and friends would go a long way, plus whomever we pick up this draft. But, you don't get to decide when a player on the level of Panarin becomes available.

I don't personally support signing him, but it's a tough call. I'm not going to crucify Gorton if he thinks it's the right move.

You're right, we have no control over it. But yeah, I'd be pretty vocal that it's probably not going to get us to where this team needs to go.

 

[NernieBichols]

So if our prospect group isn't good enough to evoke comfort now, how can we expect it to suddenly be what is needed to successfully surround a guy like Panarin?

I’m actually pretty damn comfortable with our prospect group and what the rangers will be able to do with this quality of draft coming up and another 10 picks next and keeping theirs 1sts or always having someone’s else.

Add in free agents like fox and the unknown upcoming players in similar situations.

I’m really comfortable with where they are at and signing panarin

 

[Edge]

How about an air compressor and gun?

How about a generator?

How about a boon-truck?

I could go on and on. Panarin is a quality of product in its prime that makes everything better. Low mileage on that tool as well.

(Now we’re really dehumanizing athletes. Fing tools)

We can go with any of those analogies and still arrive at the same concerns.

Panarin's talent is not the question.

 

[Edge]

I’m actually pretty damn comfortable with our prospect group and what the rangers will be able to do with this quality of draft coming up and another 10 picks next and keeping theirs 1sts or always having someone’s else.

Add in free agents like fox and the unknown upcoming players in similar situations.

I’m really comfortable with where they are at and signing panarin

And many people are not, so that takes us back to why people are objecting.

 

[NernieBichols]

I'm confused, if Panarin isn't going to move this team from the 10-18 range to the 22-28 range, than what exactly are we doing signing him to a massive contract?

I feel like the Panarin argument kind of contradicts itself.

Our prospects don't come with enough guarantees (or high-end talent), but yet they will be who we will count on to successfully surround Panarin.

We're going to sign Panarin to make the team better, but he won't budge where we're drafting or shoot us up the standings.

We don't have enough prospects long-term, but we're done accumulating assets.

Panarin is the Tylenol solution right now. It masks the fever, and makes the headache go away just long enough for us to convince ourselves that the need isn't greater and that we may require more assistance.

Foresight and 2-3 years down the line. Helping develop our players by having a guy of his caliber to be with or under. Roster constructment and slotting guys in right.

Come on edge really? are you playing devils advocate or what?