Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXXI

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Why Tanking is no sure thing...

Not every team that picks top-3 wins a Cup

But every team that wins a Cup has picked top-3

It's the whole "Not every animal is a cow, but every cow is an animal" type thing

 

[Barnaby]

Add Panarin to this team as is, and they finish in exactly the same spot.

Totally disagree. I'm not saying they are a playoff team, but is he worth 6 points? 8? Probably.

 

[Ghost of jas]

Again, people can have their own interpretation of what they hope Gorton is going to do. But, despite the hopes and wishes of some parts of the fanbase, the local scribes and the national hockey media, Gorton has yet to stray from the letter. And, until he does otherwise, that means they won’t sign Panarin or Karlsson, Kreider is not guaranteed to either be signed long-term or traded and this team is likely to be equally as bad next season as they’ve been this year. Gorton has done nothing to suggest he will load up to make next year’s team competitive. The only big addition may come if the right young player that fits the team makeup and timeline becomes available,. Gorton has said he will give up assets to acquire such a player. Anything else is based on spurious media speculation that fully ignores what Gorton has and hasn’t done and follows the tired cliche ‘the Rangers will spend because they’re the Rangers”.

 

[Profet]

Not every team that picks top-3 wins a Cup

But every team that wins a Cup has picked top-3

It's the whole "Not every animal is a cow, but every cow is an animal" type thing

This... This x10000.

Until we get our cornerstone, being competitive is counterproductive as it reduces our chances to draft said cornerstone.

Mediocrity is a guarantee for failure.

 

[SA16]

The reason recent teams have won a cup haven't signed top FA isn't because signing top FA is bad but because there haven't been any outside of Tavares last year.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

The reason recent teams have won a cup haven't signed top FA isn't because signing top FA is bad but because there haven't been any outside of Tavares last year.

I would not even count Tavares, since he never really tested the market. I consider that Toronto giving a conditional 7th for his UFA rights a minute before July 1st haha

 

[Tawnos]

Yeah its pretty dumb.

Edmonton isn't bad because they tanked, they're bad because they haven't drafted well outside of picks that a goldfish could make, made the stupid Hall trade and handed out some awful UFA contracts.

OTOH, When was the last time a team won anything building around a UFA?

This also is a pretty dumb argument. Nobody is talking about building around a UFA.

 

[Tawnos]

Not every team that picks top-3 wins a Cup

But every team that wins a Cup has picked top-3

It's the whole "Not every animal is a cow, but every cow is an animal" type thing

3 teams in the post-lockout era have done it. Out of 8 different winners. And don’t give me Seguin or Ryan. Ryan didn’t play and Seguin wasn’t vital the way we’re talking about top-3 picks should be (no fault of his own, was too young).

 

[RangerBoy]

Edmonton and Buffalo stink because they have awful management.

Has there been a more mismanaged team in pro sports than Edmonton?

Steve Tambellini, Craig MacTavish & Peter Chiarelli.

Bad contracts. Lucic. Russell. Sekera. Bad trades. Hall for Larsson. They got nothing out of the drafts outside of those 1st round picks. Chiarelli was awful.

Same thing with Buffalo.

Darcy Regier was there for too long. Tim Murray was awful. Bad free agent signings. Matt Moulson. Kyle Okposo anyone. Bad trades. Jason Botterill is digging out of the mess he inherited.

Both teams haven't found a quality goaltender. Murray traded a #1 pick(Colin White)for Lehner who had off ice issues. Edmonton thought they had their guy in Talbot and he is in Philly now.

Both teams spent big money on power forward wingers. Buyer beware on the Rangers paying Kreider.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Edmonton and Buffalo stink because they have awful management.

Has there been a more mismanaged team in pro sports than Edmonton?

Steve Tambellini, Craig MacTavish & Peter Chiarelli.

Bad contracts. Lucic. Russell. Sekera. Bad trades. Hall for Larsson. They got nothing out of the drafts outside of those 1st round picks. Chiarelli was awful.

Same thing with Buffalo.

Darcy Regier was there for too long. Tim Murray was awful. Bad free agent signings. Matt Moulson. Kyle Okposo anyone. Bad trades. Jason Botterill is digging out of the mess he inherited.

Both teams haven't found a quality goaltender. Murray traded a #1 pick(Colin White)for Lehner who had off ice issues. Edmonton thought they had their guy in Talbot and he is in Philly now.

Both teams spent big money on power forward wingers. Buyer beware on the Rangers paying Kreider.

Kreider is not Lucic and there is little hope of his speed being an issue in 5 years. Money and term will dictate whether he stays or goes. I think he will be too rich myself.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

I think they have accumulated enough picks and prospects that they can start adding players in other ways ie Panarin if they are high level which Panarin is as long as they dont have to trade for them. We can continue the rebuild and add Panarin, one thing doesnt stop because of the other. This team needs to take a step ahead next year not backwards, we have to let the players who are here know they arent busting their balls for nothing otherwise they will check out ala Edmonton.

 

[SA16]

I would not even count Tavares, since he never really tested the market. I consider that Toronto giving a conditional 7th for his UFA rights a minute before July 1st haha

Here is a list of UFA who joined a new team over the last 10 years signing contracts of at least 5 years in length with an AAV of at least 6M:

1. Keith Yandle
2. Kyle Okposo
3. Milan Lucic
4. David Backes
5. Loui Eriksson
6. Aexander Radulov
7. John Tavares
8. James Van Riemsdyk

That's the whole list. Exactly one top level player in Tavares over the last 10 years.

Signings - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Going back a bit further gets you Bouwmeester, Cammalleri, Gaborik, Redden, Gomez, Drury and some other guys (CapFriendly data not as detailed back then).

 

[Good Intentions]

Timing is everything, isn’t it?

Had Tavares been a UFA this July, would we strap up for a big offer?

As I mentioned in a prior post, I really do not believe it’ll be Panarin. It’s rarely the easy gossip that comes to fruition - it’ll be something else entirely.

 

[Tawnos]

Here is a list of UFA who joined a new team over the last 10 years signing contracts of at least 5 years in length with an AAV of at least 6M:

1. Keith Yandle
2. Kyle Okposo
3. Milan Lucic
4. David Backes
5. Loui Eriksson
6. Aexander Radulov
7. John Tavares
8. James Van Riemsdyk

That's the whole list. Exactly one top level player in Tavares over the last 10 years.

Signings - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Where is Brad Richards on that list?

Gaborik signed in 2009, so falls within the last 10 years as well.

 

[TheBloodyNine]

I would take a season-long ban bet that the Rangers don't sign Panarin. Any takers?

 

[True Blue]

Then why sign him at all?

I am not advocating for him to be signed. Quite the opposite.

 

[Off Sides]

Stockpiling goes hand in hand with having a ton of possible new entry level contracts ending, as well as tons of bridge deals ending all within a short span of years. This will become more apparent in the 2021 off-season.

 

[True Blue]

It depends on what the team's stated goals are/were. Given what the Rangers said they were going to do, no, there's no reason for Panarin to be on this team, this year. None. Would they have more points than they do now? Yes, I absolutely believe that. Not enough to make a difference other than draft order, though.

If they had Panarin at the start of the season, kept Hayes and Zuccarello, and added at the deadline then I think they squeeze into the playoffs. Obviously, not the right move, but for a team like Carolina or Florida that would've been a success.

Do I see this team being even more competitive next year? Yes. Would Panarin make them better? Yes. Do I think the cost/term are worth it? No.

But, let's not pretend that he wouldn't help this team improve. He would.

I do not think that we are that far apart here. Of course adding a talented player makes a team better (presuming that his make up allows for him to handle the bright lights of NYC). But I do not think that the goal of simply getting an opportunity to squeeze into the 8th playoff spot should be the goal. That would make it more of the same. Not to mention that they now have to resign Zucc and Hayes or similar type of players to justify having such a player on their roster.

Again, to me it is about the right time and place. NYC - Panarin marriage right now or in near future is not that.

 

[Beer League Sniper]

I don't think Gorton goes after Panarin, personally. Unless a Shattenkirk-type situation develops where the player is willing to leave term and AAV on the table, I just don't see a fit. I don't see a scenario in which that happens.

We're at least a year or two away from adding a guy like Panarin. You need to wait until you're on the upswing as a team. There's no point in signing him if you're just going to waste years of his prime being a middling team.

Then again, there's an argument to be made that when is a guy of this caliber ever available for nothing but cash?

I personally think Gorton stays the course though. He's been making all the hard decisions, so I don't see why his fortitude would falter now.

 

[Good Intentions]

Re: Panarin...

“You want it to be one way...but it’s the other way.”

 

[Edge]

Again, people can have their own interpretation of what they hope Gorton is going to do. But, despite the hopes and wishes of some parts of the fanbase, the local scribes and the national hockey media, Gorton has yet to stray from the letter. And, until he does otherwise, that means they won’t sign Panarin or Karlsson, Kreider is not guaranteed to either be signed long-term or traded and this team is likely to be equally as bad next season as they’ve been this year. Gorton has done nothing to suggest he will load up to make next year’s team competitive. The only big addition may come if the right young player that fits the team makeup and timeline becomes available,. Gorton has said he will give up assets to acquire such a player. Anything else is based on spurious media speculation that fully ignores what Gorton has and hasn’t done and follows the tired cliche ‘the Rangers will spend because they’re the Rangers”.

I think it becomes easy to project our hopes and ambitions onto different aspects of the Rangers --- be it the draft, or free agents, or trades.

While that can be a fun exercise, it can also lead to disappointment when reality doesn't work out quite so easily.

 

[True Blue]

Totally disagree. I'm not saying they are a playoff team, but is he worth 6 points? 8? Probably.

Ok. Then let's use the term "materially better". to me, 6 points ain't it. And again, is the presumption that the team now did not trade Zucc or Hayes? And that those two players and Panarin now need to be figured into the budget?

 

[Off Sides]

If Shestyorkin signs, he'll be at least 23 year old, that means his entry level would only be 2 years instead of 3. If he waits until he is 24 his entry level would be only 1 year.

Rykov is 21 until April 14th, if he signs as a 22 year old his entry level would also be 2 years instead of 3.

 

[True Blue]

Again, people can have their own interpretation of what they hope Gorton is going to do. But, despite the hopes and wishes of some parts of the fanbase, the local scribes and the national hockey media, Gorton has yet to stray from the letter. And, until he does otherwise, that means they won’t sign Panarin or Karlsson, Kreider is not guaranteed to either be signed long-term or traded and this team is likely to be equally as bad next season as they’ve been this year. Gorton has done nothing to suggest he will load up to make next year’s team competitive. The only big addition may come if the right young player that fits the team makeup and timeline becomes available,. Gorton has said he will give up assets to acquire such a player. Anything else is based on spurious media speculation that fully ignores what Gorton has and hasn’t done and follows the tired cliche ‘the Rangers will spend because they’re the Rangers”.

My view on Kreider aside, I completely agree. There is not one thing that Gorton has done that would make me think he will deviate from exactly the game plan that he has laid out. Why would he trade Hayes and then bring in Panarin? That would make no sense as now you need to surround Panarin with a cast of players and simply having Kreider and ZBad does not accomplish it.

No, I think that Gorton stays the course despite what the fanbase and local scribes may wish.

 

[Irishguy42]

You can't wait another year or two for a Panarin-type UFA to pop up. In the next year or two, there will be no one of his level hitting UFA, except maybe Hall and his injuries.

Sign him or lose him. Panarin will be the best UFA available, AINEC, over the next few seasons.