Speculation: Roster Building Thread - Part XXX

[GAGLine]

Long term health is almost always smarter than short term splurging.

There's a lot of assumptions in that statement.

 

[mas0764]

Right now? Of course they are. How could you say otherwise. It's not Lafreniere, Chytil, Kakko, Miller, Lundkvist who are the difference makers at the moment.

The most integral pieces are definitely Panarin, Fox, Shesterkin and Zibanejad.

Kreider is pretty hot right now but once he cools down, he'll join a very clear secondary tier with Trouba, Strome, et al. I guess Trouba is also scorching right now but if he's even somewhere in between what he's been this year and what he was last year, he's definitely of secondary importance.

 

[mas0764]

There's a lot of assumptions in that statement.

Same as yours, I suppose.

 

[haohmaru]

Well as Edge explained, it is happening, it's just when.

If they were smart, they'd bite the bullet now and be armed with mondo cap space in the future when other teams are not.

A team that's lost 5 of its first 25 games might be wise to let the season get a little longer in the tooth before trying to figure out what's "smart".

 

[Kocur Dill]

Unless they collapse WELL before the trade deadline, that ship has sailed with Strome. I wish they had taken the best offer for him this summer, as I honestly don't see how they can re-sign him without making the team worse in the aftermath (ie: moving Kreider and/or Trouba this summer for pretty much no return), and I don't see the team moving him at the deadline when they are playing so well (even though I have a hard time seeing such a young team really being a Cup threat this year).

We're basically stuck with renting him and then almost certainly losing him for nothing.

And for the folks looking to re-sign him, even at a 5 or 6 million per discount, please show your cap math on how you plan to make that work. Even removing Strome's salary entirely and going cheap in other areas (replacing Nemeth and Geo with rookies/<1m salaries), we still BARELY have the space to ice a roster next season. Depending on Kakko's ask, we might not even have enough. So you're going to need to find a way to cut 5 or 6 million dollars from a roster already cut down to the bone, and--barring moving Kreider/Trouba--I just don't see how that happens. People are all "just trade Chytil!" But trading Chytil, with no cap coming back in that trade, and factoring in the cost of Barron as his replacement, opens up...1 million dollars. We'd need to trade 5 or 6 Chytils.

As far as I'm concerned, the ROI on Strome for Spooner has been at bitcoin levels.

Like we say about all the kids, we can't keep them all.

If we loose Strome for no return assets, he still was a win in his tenure for the haul we got from the Nash trade tree. Lindgren, Strome (via Spooner), and Miller (Boston 1st + 3rd for Pitt 1st form Ott) That's a hell of a parlay.

 

[smoneil]

As far as I'm concerned, the ROI on Strome for Spooner has been at bitcoin levels.

Like we say about all the kids, we can't keep them all.

If we loose Strome for no return assets, he still was a win in his tenure for the haul we got from the Nash trade tree. Lindgren, Strome (via Spooner), and Miller (Boston 1st + 3rd for Pitt 1st form Ott) That's a hell of a parlay.

Definitely true. I just hate to lose any asset for nothing, despite the acquisition cost. There's just no way to justify selling Strome if the team is still in a solid playoff spot. A playoff run (particularly if we can go longer than a round or two) is just more important for the kids on the team than a theoretical rental return on Strome. They need to cut their post-season teeth as soon as possible.

 

[duhmetreE]

Chytil and Kravtsov for Gourde @ 50%.

Isn't that enough to tempt Seattle?

 

[ZiGOODejad]

Chytil and Kravtsov for Gourde @ 50%.

Isn't that enough to tempt Seattle?

I would think it would be enough. I’d like to see Gourde on this roster.

 

[smoneil]

Chytil and Kravtsov for Gourde @ 50%.

Isn't that enough to tempt Seattle?

1- Gourde has a NTC, so it might be a moot point anyway if he doesn't want to move.

2- Where are we getting the cap for his ~$2.7 hit moving forward? Strome's cap already went to the Zib/Fox contracts. Once swapping Barron for Chytil on line 3 gives us about a million dollars. IF the cap goes up by a million, we still need more than a million dollars of savings from somewhere.

3- Gourde is valued as a top six center in Seattle. I doubt they would move him for that, and that is already an overpayment.

4- Guess where Gourde was when he was Chytil's age? Give up? He was four years away from even being an NHL regular (and 2 years away from his first NHL game).

Being done with the re-build doesn't mean throwing young assets away on high priced middle six players.

Gourde has also not been particularly productive in the post-season. At least not at the level of a top 6 performer.

 

[RGY]

Chytil and Kravtsov for Gourde @ 50%.

Isn't that enough to tempt Seattle?

While I like Gourde a lot, that seems like too much.

 

[mas0764]

Chytil and Kravtsov for Gourde @ 50%.

Isn't that enough to tempt Seattle?

God, enough of this same suggestion. It’s terrible for us.

 

[duhmetreE]

God, enough of this same suggestion. It’s terrible for us.

Chytil and Lundkvist for Gourde

 

[mas0764]

Chytil and Lundkvist for Gourde

 

[duhmetreE]

1- Gourde has a NTC, so it might be a moot point anyway if he doesn't want to move.

2- Where are we getting the cap for his ~$2.7 hit moving forward? Strome's cap already went to the Zib/Fox contracts. Once swapping Barron for Chytil on line 3 gives us about a million dollars. IF the cap goes up by a million, we still need more than a million dollars of savings from somewhere.

3- Gourde is valued as a top six center in Seattle. I doubt they would move him for that, and that is already an overpayment.

4- Guess where Gourde was when he was Chytil's age? Give up? He was four years away from even being an NHL regular (and 2 years away from his first NHL game).

Being done with the re-build doesn't mean throwing young assets away on high priced middle six players.

Gourde has also not been particularly productive in the post-season. At least not at the level of a top 6 performer.

Who cares where Gourde was at 22. He earned his spot and is 2x the player of Chytil right now.

Our window is open now. It's not going to wait for Chytil to develop a 2way game, consistency and IQ/gamesense. How do we afford Chytil if we can't afford Gourde?

 

[huerter]

Well as Edge explained, it is happening, it's just when.

If they were smart, they'd bite the bullet now and be armed with mondo cap space in the future when other teams are not.

They need to be smart but they also need another team to be all-time donks to get them to trade for Trouba.

 

[smoneil]

Who cares where Gourde was at 22. He earned his spot and is 2x the player of Chytil right now.

Our window is open now. It's not going to wait for Chytil to develop a 2way game, consistency and IQ/gamesense. How do we afford Chytil if we can't afford Gourde?

It's basic math. As the roster stands right now, we can BARELY afford to run with Zib/Chytil/Barron/Rooney down the middle next season. Things get a little easier the season after that (3+ million in dead cap comes off). And three seasons out, the clauses on Kreider and Trouba change (hopefully right around when Schneider and Othmann/Cuylle are ready to step into those roles).

Even at 50%, Gourde is going to be around what, 2.7m? But it isn't just that hit--we need to replace Chytil with (least expensive option)--Morgan Barron, who has a salary of about 1 million plus $850k in potential performance bonuses that they need to account for in the cap planning. So you remove Chytil's 2.3m, but after accounting for Barron as the replacement, you don't get 2.3 to spend. You get ~$500k.

I've broken down the numbers in more detail more than once in the last TWO roster building threads, but some of y'all are such shop-a-holics that you refuse to see exactly how f***ed this team is against the cap for next season. We will have almost no money for next year, and just enough to cover RFA's the year after, and that's with the assumption that Strome walks and we get his 4.5m back.

Would Zib/Gourde/Barron/Rooney be better on paper right now than Zib/Chytil/Barron/Rooney? Yeah. I'm not disputing that. In a perfect world, I'd love to have Strome back as well. But the money just isn't there.

My point re: where Gourde was at the same age is that way too many people want to throw young players away for not emerging fully formed onto the team. Look at St. Louis? Kyrou is a year older than Chytil and went from Chytil-esque production to a PPG player this season. It happened to also coincide with getting the minutes/opportunity.

This team, because of its financial situation, basically has no choice in the matter. Barring a major cap move, Chytil and Barron have two seasons to lock down that 2C spot. We should have the wing depth to still be a very good team (and if we don't, then we never had a "window" open right now to begin with). If neither of them proves to be more than a 3C, the team can pick the one they like best, move the other, and do something about the 2nd line when the money opens up in summer 2024.

 

[HFsNumber1Heel]

Before this team does any youth for vets trades, let's see how they handle the big boys in Jan-Feb.

This is the very beginning of the Rangers window and not the time to go all in despite cap space.

They need to consistently play well against the upper echelon clubs and not get spanked like they did against Calgary x2 and Colorado.

I'd put Oilers, Flames, Avs, Capitals, Canes, Leafs, Lightning, Panthers as better than the Rangers now. Wild will be another interesting test and also while the Knights are injured, same deal with them.

Trading a Chytil just for the sake of change makes no sense. That's what got Neil Smith into trouble post-94 when if he leaves that team alone, they have a bunch of Cup runs in the late 90s/early 2000s.

If Chytil was an NCAA player from North America no one would even worry about him for another three years and let him marinate. Like at Meier and Dahlen on San Jose as examples.

 

[duhmetreE]

It's basic math. As the roster stands right now, we can BARELY afford to run with Zib/Chytil/Barron/Rooney down the middle next season. Things get a little easier the season after that (3+ million in dead cap comes off). And three seasons out, the clauses on Kreider and Trouba change (hopefully right around when Schneider and Othmann/Cuylle are ready to step into those roles).

Even at 50%, Gourde is going to be around what, 2.7m? But it isn't just that hit--we need to replace Chytil with (least expensive option)--Morgan Barron, who has a salary of about 1 million plus $850k in potential performance bonuses that they need to account for in the cap planning. So you remove Chytil's 2.3m, but after accounting for Barron as the replacement, you don't get 2.3 to spend. You get ~$500k.

I've broken down the numbers in more detail more than once in the last TWO roster building threads, but some of y'all are such shop-a-holics that you refuse to see exactly how f***ed this team is against the cap for next season. We will have almost no money for next year, and just enough to cover RFA's the year after, and that's with the assumption that Strome walks and we get his 4.5m back.

Would Zib/Gourde/Barron/Rooney be better on paper right now than Zib/Chytil/Barron/Rooney? Yeah. I'm not disputing that. In a perfect world, I'd love to have Strome back as well. But the money just isn't there.

My point re: where Gourde was at the same age is that way too many people want to throw young players away for not emerging fully formed onto the team. Look at St. Louis? Kyrou is a year older than Chytil and went from Chytil-esque production to a PPG player this season. It happened to also coincide with getting the minutes/opportunity.

This team, because of its financial situation, basically has no choice in the matter. Barring a major cap move, Chytil and Barron have two seasons to lock down that 2C spot. We should have the wing depth to still be a very good team (and if we don't, then we never had a "window" open right now to begin with). If neither of them proves to be more than a 3C, the team can pick the one they like best, move the other, and do something about the 2nd line when the money opens up in summer 2024.

If we can't afford Gourde at 2.55M, we can't afford Chytil after next year. We're tight. We're not that tight. We can't afford 500k more next season? What happens the year after? Say, Chytil takes off and starts producing... how do we afford him?

Hoping for Barron and Chytil to take the 2C is a disaster imo. It's one thing if they earn it but it would be a colossal failure otherwise.

If you're looking at stats and only numbers, I get the hope for Chytil. Kyrou has everything Chytil doesn't.... as well as his strengths. I was suspect from the beginning with Chytil His IQ/vision was never there. I cant explain the false hope people have in him. I'd wish he would turn into a stud, he has the physical toolset... but that's where it ends.

This is Chytils 5th season in the NHL.... what part of his game has he improved upon?

 

[duhmetreE]

Even if the guys like Edge mentioned are looked at. Chytil will be one of the pieces. I don't think he's long for this team.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I see Drury moving him.

 

[egelband]

Figured he'd try this stretching thing everyone's been talking about. See what all the hooplah is about.

 

[HFsNumber1Heel]

Even if the guys like Edge mentioned are looked at. Chytil will be one of the pieces. I don't think he's long for this team.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I see Drury moving him.

If they are going to move Chytil, they need to find out what they have in Barron.

Similar to Huska who we now know more about (he is a long way's away if ever). If Barron can play with Laf/Gauthier or Laf and Gautheir upgrade, then you have your answer.

 

[tomobson]

If the rangers are going to 50% for a center in a trade I want one better than Gourde coming back. I don't see Drury doing anything until we get much closer to the deadline and for good reason.

 

[RGY]

I agree I don’t think Chytil is going to be here longterm.

 

[smoneil]

If we can't afford Gourde at 2.55M, we can't afford Chytil after next year. We're tight. We're not that tight. We can't afford 500k more next season? What happens the year after? Say, Chytil takes off and starts producing... how do we afford him?

Hoping for Barron and Chytil to take the 2C is a disaster imo. It's one thing if they earn it but it would be a colossal failure otherwise.

If you're looking at stats and only numbers, I get the hope for Chytil. Kyrou has everything Chytil doesn't.... as well as his strengths. I was suspect from the beginning with Chytil His IQ/vision was never there. I cant explain the false hope people have in him. I'd wish he would turn into a stud, he has the physical toolset... but that's where it ends.

This is Chytils 5th season in the NHL.... what part of his game has he improved upon?

As I said, I broke it down in detail more than once--I think the most detailed one was in the previous thread, but yes, we are that tight to the cap. People are assuming every single guy is going to take millions less than they could get on the market, and almost nobody is paying any attention to the several ELC players with contract bonuses that we will need to account for. Depending on what Kakko wants (and that Hughes contract could eff us there as well), we might need to cut some guys we don't want to cut as soon as this summer. If Chytil takes off and starts producing, we could have a problem, as we aren't getting much cap space back next offseason, and most of it is likely earmarked for Laf and Miller (and they will pretty much HAVE to bridge). Frankly, I'd be shocked if Montreal doesn't have an RFA contract ready and waiting to send the moment Laf is eligible.

As for the bolded, ideally, I would agree with you. This is a case, like the one with Kakko and Buchnevich, where the cap is making decisions for us. This year's team is too green to be a real threat in the postseason, and no matter what, we will lose some important pieces from this year's team this summer. I see the next couple years as the "learn how to play hockey in the playoffs" stage of the rebuild. The true window opens when Kreider and Trouba's clauses change. The cap should start going up in a more serious way by then. We will be able to move both of them with (ideally) in house options for replacement (Othmann and Schneider, and possibly swapping out Goodrow for Cuylle by then as well). And the team would then have a veteran core of Zib and Bread, a young core of Fox/Miller/Kakko/Laf (and maye guys like Chytil/Barron/Kravtsov). Young kids like Schneider, Cuylle, Othmann, maybe Berard, etc--AND money to spend. This year's team might fight their way through a round or two if we get vintage Panarin and Zib and Shesty stands on his head, but the real window--as legitimate threats to win the Cup--begins in 2024-25. If we don't make any panic moves and screw everything up before then.

And I'm well aware that you have had issues with Chytil since pretty much forever. It shows in the somewhat dishonest way you spin certain things like this being his "5th season in the NHL." Those 9 games as an 18 year old? Really? You're counting that? Two Covid seasons, that were further shortened in his case because of injury? He's played the equivalent of two and a half NHL seasons, and he's about the age that most guys drafted where he was are just breaking into the league. This isn't a case of five "full" seasons, and he has shown improvement in several areas.

Aside from the slow start to this season (and look at the shooting % compared to his career numbers--this is a clear outlier. He's snakebit right now), he has improved on his production, faceoff percentage, and defense for each of the last three seasons. This is despite being in the NHL before he was ready (IMO), getting erratic use by an incompetent coach, and skating with a rotating cast of players. In the scant windows where he's played with established top six talent, he's played his best hockey. I'm saying that there is still a reasonable chance that, with more minutes and consistent linemates for pretty much the first time in his career, he can still develop into a very solid 2nd line center.

I'm also saying that, beyond the fact that we simply can't afford him (assuming he even wants to come here or that Seattle would trade him at 50%), Gourde is a career .6 ppg guy turning 30 this month. We know what he is--a middling 2nd line center or an elite 3rd line center, who doesn't really seem to elevate his game in the playoffs to boot (his production drops by a third). Even not accounting for the cap concerns and the unrealistic notion that we could acquire him with salary retained for that cost, I'd rather roll the dice on Chytil's potential rather than go all in on a guy like Gourde.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

If the rangers are going to 50% for a center in a trade I want one better than Gourde coming back. I don't see Drury doing anything until we get much closer to the deadline and for good reason.

Like sans the insane (McDavid, MacK, etc.) I don't think there are many players in this league who are a better fit for this team than Gourde.

If he's available, they should be all over that one.