Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXX

[RGY]

Why on earth would Kreider take less than Kane?

Because he has 405 points in 638 games played and Kreider only has 266 in 443 games played? And Kreider is a few 4-5 months older. Idk i thought that was pretty straight forward...

 

[Glen Sathers Cigar]

Yeah the age isn't really the issue more than the quality of player is.

Those teams had them in spades, we do not.

I'm not saying we currently do, but the idea that was put forth that I was arguing against was that we shouldn't re-sign Kreider bc he'll be 29 and Tampa's roster used as evidence of why, bc they don't have any important players aside from McD over 29.

You can be a very good team with important players 29 and older.

 

[NYR Viper]

It bothers me that Gorts does this... He had a quote prior to the deadline that essentially was saying he spent the week before the deadline deciding who they should trade and who they should keep.. I'm sure it was just non-sense GM talk, but if it is not then I'm seriously concerned about the long term plan

I'm really not sure the added value of trading a guy with (2) playoff runs exceeds the value of trading a guy with (1) playoff run by THAT much though. We all assume that there is significant added value but guys get dealt with term and I don't see this extreme additional value. Perhaps it is smarter to kick the can a bit and space out the draft picks coming back. Gorton has seemed to do a good job of getting picks in multiple years

 

[Tawnos]

Age is an issue when talking about decline.

How we do not know this as Rangers fans after seeing it happen with almost every free agent they've signed, including their own who they extended ???

And there's simply no way to know when a decline is going to hit a player. It has nothing to do with wear and tear. It has nothing to do with physical conditioning. It has nothing to do with style of play. It's 100% about genetics and there's no way to know.

 

[Off Sides]

And there's simply no way to know when a decline is going to hit a player. It has nothing to do with wear and tear. It has nothing to do with physical condition. It has nothing to do with style of play. It's 100% about genetics and there's no way to know.

Sure, yet having a player decline right at the wrong time is bad, right?

That is a risk that is just inherent, and increases as the players get older.

It often also corresponds to when they have the highest cap hits of their career.

 

[Gardner McKay]

Because he has 405 points in 638 games played and Kreider only has 266 in 443 games played? And Kreider is a few 4-5 months older. Idk i thought that was pretty straight forward...

The difference is less than 3 points per 82 games.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I'm not saying we currently do, but the idea that was put forth that I was arguing against was that we shouldn't re-sign Kreider bc he'll be 29 and Tampa's roster used as evidence of why, bc they don't have any important players aside from McD over 29.

You can be a very good team with important players 29 and older.

I agree with this and its not the right argument to be using, that is correct.

I was trying to turn it into the conversation that we really should be looking at which is the core of those winners...

Majority of them homegrown, almost all of them drafted and developed at least 2 skaters who will be in the HOF one day.

Pittsburgh has Crosby and Malkin (Kessel wasn't drafted, but he's going to be borderline. MAF will be funny enough because he's this generations Osgood but hes not a skater.)

Chicago has Kane, Keith and Toews (and Hossa, who wasn't drafted but for all the pro-Panarin peeps, this is how a signing like that should be done. Side note, but the 2010 Hawks were hilariously loaded)

LA has Doughty and Kopitar.

Washington has OV and Backstrom (with Kuzy as a possibility.)

And so on and so forth.

 

[True Blue]

technically you can.

Technically, you can. Realistically, no one will sign with you. At least no one of note

 

[Good Intentions]

I can go six.

And I’ll go 7. We will win a Cup with Chris Kreider.

 

[kovazub94]

And there's simply no way to know when a decline is going to hit a player. It has nothing to do with wear and tear. It has nothing to do with physical conditioning. It has nothing to do with style of play. It's 100% about genetics and there's no way to know.

It actually has to do with all of the above INCLUDING genetics to your point. To what degree each of these has an impact is on a case by case basis.

 

[True Blue]

They did it last year with Miller and McDonagh too. The return could have been greater, but based on a lot of the returns this deadline, they don’t seem very great across the board. He reportedly was listening to offers and set a price on Kreider and if it wasn’t close now, that doesn’t mean that the price won’t go down or teams offers won’t go up in the offseason, probably a little of both.

The Miller and McD situations were different. Neither was at Kreider's level of performance. Gorton, and a few of us discussed it here, rightfully set the price at a king's ransom for Krieder. Of course there is a Godfather of an offer at which you move him. But that was not out there. I do not think that he is looking to move Krieder.

if I’m the Rangers I talk to him or his agent after the season with a cap on term length (5 years or less) and absolutely no NTC/NMC’s, if he’s willing to sign that sort of contract, great, sign it, if he’s not I trade him in the summer

That makes no sense. Gorton is not a fool. And only a fool would believe that Krieder would take 5 years with no NTC/NMC’s. He will get both clauses and more years on the open market. Gorton would know this and in knowing that (I believe) would have traded him this year.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

And there's simply no way to know when a decline is going to hit a player. It has nothing to do with wear and tear. It has nothing to do with physical conditioning. It has nothing to do with style of play. It's 100% about genetics and there's no way to know.

It's straight up projection. Basically, you need excellent foresight to accurately predict whether a player will trend up, down, or plateau based on age.

 

[Vinny DeAngelo]

I'm really not sure the added value of trading a guy with (2) playoff runs exceeds the value of trading a guy with (1) playoff run by THAT much though. We all assume that there is significant added value but guys get dealt with term and I don't see this extreme additional value. Perhaps it is smarter to kick the can a bit and space out the draft picks coming back. Gorton has seemed to do a good job of getting picks in multiple years

I do think its easier to swing big trades in the offseason or the draft vs the deadline..

I think draft picks are most liquid (to use a finance term) after the draft and before the season starts.. At the deadline and during the draft Picks are more defined and therefore GMs don't want to move them as easily

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

The difference is less than 3 points per 82 games.

womp womp.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

The Miller and McD situations were different. Neither was at Kreider's level of performance. Gorton, and a few of us discussed it here, rightfully set the price at a king's ransom for Krieder. Of course there is a Godfather of an offer at which you move him. But that was not out there. I do not think that he is looking to move Krieder.

That makes no sense. Gorton is not a fool. And only a fool would believe that Krieder would take 5 years with no NTC/NMC’s. He will get both clauses and more years on the open market. Gorton would know this and in knowing that (I believe) would have traded him this year.

If Gorton gives Chris Kreider a 7x7 deal with a NMC, he’s a fool

 

[Glen Sathers Cigar]

I agree with this and its not the right argument to be using, that is correct.

I was trying to turn it into the conversation that we really should be looking at which is the core of those winners...

Majority of them homegrown, almost all of them drafted and developed at least 2 skaters who will be in the HOF one day.

Pittsburgh has Crosby and Malkin (Kessel wasn't drafted, but he's going to be borderline. MAF will be funny enough because he's this generations Osgood but hes not a skater.)

Chicago has Kane, Keith and Toews (and Hossa, who wasn't drafted but for all the pro-Panarin peeps, this is how a signing like that should be done. Side note, but the 2010 Hawks were hilariously loaded)

LA has Doughty and Kopitar.

Washington has OV and Backstrom (with Kuzy as a possibility.)

And so on and so forth.

Oh gotcha, yeah we're totally on the same page here.

 

[Tawnos]

Sure, yet having a player decline right at the wrong time is bad, right?

That is a risk that is just inherent, and increases as the players get older.

It often also corresponds to when they have the highest cap hits of their career.

I think it depends on what you expect. If we sign Kreider for 7x7, I would have the expectation that the second half of the contract is going to provide a lesser quality player than the first half. That's built into the deal.

It actually has to do with all of the above INCLUDING genetics to your point. To what degree each of these has an impact is on a case by case basis.

Which is the same as saying the only ultimate factor is genetics. There's no other explanation to the varying degree each of those other factors have an impact on a case-by-case basis.

It's straight up projection. Basically, you need excellent foresight to accurately predict whether a player will trend up, down, or plateau based on age.

I don't think it's predictable at all.

 

[Thirty One]

So you want to trade one of the leaders of this team, a legit top line player, for a draft pick that may or may not pan out?

#WeNeverGetaGoodPlayer

It's tough to pinpoint exactly how much you value first rounders, True Blue. When the Rangers were competing for the Stanley Cup, them trading their firsts to help that effort was met with constant derision from you. Does that mean, now that they're bad and the Stanley Cup is not in the near future, that trading off players for first round picks would be met with praise? Nah.

 

[True Blue]

If Gorton gives Chris Kreider a 7x7 deal with a NMC, he’s a fool

Or an astute GM

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Or an astute GM

No I hate that deal.

7 or even 7.5X5 with a limited NTC would be fine with me.

Anymore than that? Thanks Chris, I hope you enjoy your new team.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

Or an astute GM

I really don’t see a way that contract doesn’t become something similar to the Lucic, Ladd, Backes, Eriksson’s of the league

 

[True Blue]

I really don’t see a way that contract doesn’t become something similar to the Lucic, Ladd, Backes, Eriksson’s of the league

With all due respect, you cannot compare Kreider to those players.

 

[True Blue]

No I hate that deal.

7 or even 7.5X5 with a limited NTC would be fine with me.

Anymore than that? Thanks Chris, I hope you enjoy your new team.

I don't get it. Aren't we talking about such a deal? Right around those years and dollars?

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

I don't get it. Aren't we talking about such a deal? Right around those years and dollars?

The difference between 5 and 7 years may as well be the grand canyon

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I don't get it. Aren't we talking about such a deal? Right around those years and dollars?

Yes 5 with options to move him is a hell of a lot different than 7 where you're pretty much locked into the player. With a 5 year deal you can hedge your bets on him being pretty close to what he is now for 3 seasons and if he starts to tail off after that, 2 years is manageable. 4 years is not, and you're locked into those 4 ala Staal.

the NMC is a no go for me. I hope the FO never hands one out unless its for a star player finishing up his ELC.