Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXX

[True Blue]

The difference between 5 and 7 years may as well be the grand canyon

The poster that I replied to was seemed to say 7 years.

 

[True Blue]

the NMC is a no go for me. I hope the FO never hands one out unless its for a star player finishing up his ELC.

I would be against a blanket NMC/NTC. But other than a blanket one? Count me in.

 

[kovazub94]

Which is the same as saying the only ultimate factor is genetics. There's no other explanation to the varying degree each of those other factors have an impact on a case-by-case basis.

No it's not. We note non-genetic factors as variables to level of performance in case where two identical genetically specimen were subjected to different external factors like injuries, wear-and-tear, fitness regimen etc.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

With all due respect, you cannot compare Kreider to those players.

And why can’t you? They were all better and for longer than Kreider has been before they signed their contracts

 

[kovazub94]

....the NMC is a no go for me. I hope the FO never hands one out unless its for a star player finishing up his ELC.

I agree about the full NMC or NTC clause but I'd be ok with partial 10 or under. Per Burke, most players use it for economic reasons only, specifically to avoid higher Canadian taxes.

 

[True Blue]

And why can’t you? They were all better and for longer than Kreider has been before they signed their contracts

Multiple reasons. For one, I think that each scenario is different. For another, I think that he is just coming into his own. For yet another, I think that what Kreider means to THIS team is a bit different as well.

 

[Ghost of jas]

Yeah, the NMC is a no go. I could live with, a limited NTC for the first three years. I think 6 years is fine. I think you get four more years like the current one, and then year five is where you see a bit of a dropoff, with the last year being the "thank you for taking a hometown discount" year.

 

[Fitzy]

The general flow was that "There are no teams out there who are substantially comprised of 27 year old and under"

Just pointing out the top team currently in the standings is actually substantially comprised of 28 year olds and under.

Fair. My bad.

I do think we'd be wise to pick the vets that we extend. Kreider is one of the few I'm truly bullish on. I think a guy like him is worth the cash. Once shatty Smith and Staal are gone, and Hank retires I don't think it'll be a huge issue on the cap long term.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

Multiple reasons. For one, I think that each scenario is different. For another, I think that he is just coming into his own. For yet another, I think that what Kreider means to THIS team is a bit different as well.

We’re clearly not going to see eye to eye on this, so I’m just going to say I don’t see the safe bet that signing Chris Kreider to a big deal is going to result in Kreider being worth that money/cap hit for even half of that contract

 

[Ghost of jas]

Multiple reasons. For one, I think that each scenario is different. For another, I think that he is just coming into his own. For yet another, I think that what Kreider means to THIS team is a bit different as well.

Kreider is such a unique case. Looking at Ladd, he never once hit 30 goals. He was definitely better earlier in his career than Kreider was. But he pretty much leveled off, whereas Kreider is still technically rising this year. Kreider could pass Ladd's career highs in goals and tie his career in points this year. I'm not sure Ladd is a good comparison.

This ties into what I was saying about not using Stepan and Brassard as comparisons, either. Both were showing signs of decline in their respective final years as Rangers. Any belief that Kreider is about to decline is mere conjecture.

I'm not saying it's an easy decision either way. I know where my heart I lies. Maybe Kreider makes it easy on Gorton, either by taking the hometown discount, or by making it clear he wants market value. I think it was smart for Gorton to do his due diligence at the deadline. I have no idea how this is going to end up.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

Kreider is such a unique case. Looking at Ladd, he never once hit 30 goals. He was definitely better earlier in his career than Kreider was. But he pretty much leveled off, whereas Kreider is still technically rising this year. Kreider could pass Ladd's career highs in goals and tie his career in points this year. I'm not sure Ladd is a good comparison.

This ties into what I was saying about not using Stepan and Brassard as comparisons, either. Both were showing signs of decline in their respective final years as Rangers. Any belief that Kreider is about to decline is mere conjecture.

I'm not saying it's an easy decision either way. I know where my heart I lies. Maybe Kreider makes it easy on Gorton, either by taking the hometown discount, or by making it clear he wants market value. I think it was smart for Gorton to do his due diligence at the deadline. I have no idea how this is going to end up.

All of this is conjecture because we all don’t know, but most players in this league aren’t aging very well these days, especially the physical ones, this is what worries me about Kreider aging well regardless if he’s playing his best hockey ever right now

 

[Tawnos]

No it's not. We note non-genetic factors as variables to level of performance in case where two identical genetically specimen were subjected to different external factors like injuries, wear-and-tear, fitness regimen etc.

No you're looking at that backwards. With the exception of twins, there aren't identical genetic specimens. But what we do see is players with similar factors like what you mention who see declines at different times.

 

[duhmetreE]

Kreider is in Rob Brind'amour type shape. Longevity will not be the issue. He's no where near Ladd IMO

 

[Irishguy42]

Kreider is in Rob Brind'amour type shape. Longevity will not be the issue. He's no where near Ladd IMO

No man can match Rod The Bod except for like Gordie Howe lol

 

[SA16]

I see very little to believe Kreider will age better than most players other than being biased because he is a homegrown player. The main reason he is scoring more than this year anyway is an increase of 2 mins/game from last year and a career high shooting percentage.

 

[RGY]

The difference is less than 3 points per 82 games.

But why is that difference there? Essentially, the combination of Kane breaking in earlier than Kreider, not getting demoted to the AHL, and being healthier. Those are all reasons why Kane is above Kreider

 

[DutchShamrock]

I'd love to blindly believe Kreider is breaking out or just hitting his stride at 27, going on 28. But he never broke 30 goals or 60 points. His "break out" year is coinciding with a bit of an offensive inflation. An inflation in general and moreso for top line players. I don't know if its rules enforcement or the influx of young defenders, but the amount of ppg players and 100 pt projections should put kreider's statistical season in context. And it really feels less like he took a huge, permanent step forward and more like he is trending with the rest of the league.

This is all about gambling. Do you turn down a good, more than fair return based on an offensive surge that mirrored an inflation through the league? Do we use 1 year where he finally breaks 30 goals as he turns 28, and still probably falls short of 60 points, as an accurate barometer? Are we really being objective or are we victims of just really wanting Kreider to be the exception to aging? Is any internet poster in a position to identify leadership and influence in a closed room?

It certainly hinges on the return, but I can't help but lean towards cashing in while an asset is high. I can't help but read a bunch of these posts and feel like a lot the sentiment to keep him is rooted in 2019 Chris Kreider being the the floor for 2020-2024 Chris Kreider .

 

[BBKers]

Kreiders future in NYC will likely be reflective of what happens with our 2 conditional picks (both likely decided before July 1) plus eventually who we draft this year. If the brass are satisfied with the general overlook going fwd at/after the draft, I think he will stay and get a retirement El Capitano contract of 7 or 8 years. If not, they (still) may very well consider dealing him. This is not only my opinion... Btw. no never mind

 

[darko]

I met several people at the draft party last year, but they keep changing their screen names and I can't keep track.

@Joey Bones bailed like a ***** and I ended up paying $30 for a damn cocktail.

No wonder he bailed. Get a real drink.

 

[Vitto79]

If that’s the roster going into next year, that team is once again about a 25-32 Win team. Basically exactly the same as this year. Still not sure what the rebuild is accomplishing and still not sure why anyone believes this is going to work.

That second line would not even be a 4th line on a Stanley cup contender. The Rangers will still be years away!

Isn’t it a good idea to completely suck and get 1st overall ?

 

[Edge]

No wonder he bailed. Get a real drink.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

I met several people at the draft party last year, but they keep changing their screen names and I can't keep track.

@Joey Bones bailed like a ***** and I ended up paying $30 for a damn cocktail.

I was with Joey for a good portion of the party. I couldn’t find you Edge

I did meet @MahomesIsGod and @Machinehead though

 

[Beacon]

The thing is, so much has to go right before a rebuild can be known if it works. All these draft picks have to be good ones.

Only if you're relying on 1 first rounder per year. Get 3 firsts and 3 seconds, suddenly you can fail 4 of 6 times and still have a great rebuild outcome.

 

[One Winged Angel]

McKenzie said the Rangers could possibly go back to Zuccarello and Hayes.

I personally don’t see it.

 

[Ghost of jas]

McKenzie said the Rangers could possibly go back to Zuccarello and Hayes.

I personally don’t see it.

Especially when both Brooks and Carpiniello are saying it’s unlikely.