Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXX

[Trxjw]

The Rangers should stay out of the top-tier of the UFA market for a few years. You rarely get what you pay for. John Tavares was the best UFA to hit the market in years and he got $11M per. He's the 2nd highest paid player in the league, but is he the 2nd best player in the league? Absolutely not. You pay an inflated price to get a guy "for free" as a UFA. Then you face the reality that the player will play out less than half their contract in their 20's and their best years are very likely behind them at that point.

The Rangers can afford to stay out of free agency for a few years until they see what they have in the pipeline. The UFA class in 2021 or whatever might not look great, but you never know who will become available between now and then via trade and what sort of assets the Rangers will have to make a move.

 

[SA16]

Waiting a year or two for UFAs sounds like a great plan until you see that Brandon Saad and RNH are the best UFAs available who aren't old. This is the problem with waiting for the perfect timing. If you don't want to sign UFAs this season then you should probably want to sit put of UFA for a long time.

This is exactly the problem with waiting. Not attempting to sign Panarin or Karlsson or Duchene or whoever would significantly extend the length of the rebuild. There are no elite players coming up in FA in the next two years after other than Hall who probably won't get there/comes with a lot of injury risk. I find it very hard to believe that people could prefer to trade the equivalent of a 1st+Kravtsov+whatever for the elite scorer who wants to be traded of the year (i.e. the Stone situation but with term and not in Ottawa) as opposed to keeping those assets and signing someone for nothing but money. And I mean as long as you don't give a full NMC if you sign Panarin and the team is not any better 2-3 years later it's not like you can't turn around and trade him.

The whole "let's wait until the team is more ready to compete before adding any key players" is nice in theory but it doesn't really work when there will not be any good FA in that time frame.

 

[Avery16]

This is exactly the problem with waiting. Not attempting to sign Panarin or Karlsson or Duchene or whoever would significantly extend the length of the rebuild. There are no elite players coming up in FA in the next two years after other than Hall who probably won't get there/comes with a lot of injury risk. I find it very hard to believe that people could prefer to trade the equivalent of a 1st+Kravtsov+whatever for the elite scorer who wants to be traded of the year (i.e. the Stone situation but with term and not in Ottawa) as opposed to keeping those assets and signing someone for nothing but money. And I mean as long as you don't give a full NMC if you sign Panarin and the team is not any better 2-3 years later it's not like you can't turn around and trade him.

The whole "let's wait until the team is more ready to compete before adding any key players" is nice in theory but it doesn't really work when there will not be any good FA in that time frame.

There are other ways to add key players without overpaying for the soup du jour.

 

[Mr Saji]

I doubt we do anything in free agency besides more of the same, sign some stop Gap players to 1-2 year deals insulating the kids if they're not ready. We have an incredible opportunity coming up here soon with the cap flexibility we will have.

The NHL or NHLPA can both opt out of the current CBA this September allowing it to end in 2020, if not the normal end in 2022. The expansion draft is coming faster than most realize. Let's make our draft picks, see what we have in these kids and continue to accrue assets and cap space allowing us the freedom to operate around these coming roadblocks and hell, possibly even hang some other GM's out to dry because they're not prepared.

Look at the MLB, the stance those teams are taking against these retirement contracts that are burning them. What happens if the CBA changes and they want to follow suit? What if they further change the max contract to 5 years instead of 7 for UFA's? How would you feel picking up a Taylor Hall at age 29 for 5 years instead of 7? What other changes could they make that could be in our favor? There could be negatives as well as positives to come from a new CBA, and if we're going to be rebuilding anyway, I think taking your chances going into it with as clean a slate as possible is much better than being maxed out. See where the chips fall, then start making your moves.

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

I think this most recent deadline has corroborated what has been said many times previously here, that GMJG is patiently awaiting the expiration of 4 key contracts that all expire at the end of the 2020-21 season: Shattenkirk ($6,650,000), Staal ($5,700,000), Smith ($4,350,000), and Lundqvist ($8,500,000). Together, those four contracts occupy 33% of our projected cap hit this year. And we're only $4MM away from the cap upper limit. I can't imagine a winning team that has 1/3rd of their cap space tied up in those 4 players, who additionally are all expected to have decline in performance as we approach the end of their contracts.

It's going to be hard as a fan, knowing that a big part of fixing our situation is going to be playing the waiting game for the next two seasons.

Fabulous username.

 

[Leonardo87]

Did you just respond to your self?

I talk to myself all the time.

 

[DutchShamrock]

Just a thought, but is it possible that Panarin is picking his market to capitalize on advertising and sponsorships? Get to NY or LA, sign with Panara, Audi, optimum, get paid elsewhere. Toronto pitched that to Tavares. Look, you'll make more with our salary plus marketing. Is Panarin eyeing up New York for culture and Russian comfort, or to tap into American ad revenue?

I'm not on board for panarin at $11m, but $9.5m plus a milk ad campaign and I can buy in.

 

[Beacon]

Kreider/Zib/Vesey
Names/Chytil/Buch
Lemieux/Andersson/Fast
Brickley/Nieves/Strome

13F - Smith

Skjei/DeAngelo
Staal/Shattenkirk
Claesson/Pionk

That is one awful lineup.

Pan+Lemieux isnt that much better than Hayes+MZA that we suddenly become contenders and likely dont even make the playoffs unless Chytil and someone else explode.

 

[Edge]

Just a thought, but is it possible that Panarin is picking his market to capitalize on advertising and sponsorships? Get to NY or LA, sign with Panara, Audi, optimum, get paid elsewhere. Toronto pitched that to Tavares. Look, you'll make more with our salary plus marketing. Is Panarin eyeing up New York for culture and Russian comfort, or to tap into American ad revenue?

I'm not on board for panarin at $11m, but $9.5m plus a milk ad campaign and I can buy in.

Well if it’s the latter reason, that should cause some concern because we’ve seen how that worked out in the past.

I get the Tavares thing, but at the end of the day they also still forked over a ton of money, a number of years, and the chance to play with an absolutely stacked offense.

It wasn’t all car commercials and easy access to the Hall of Fame.

Maybe Panarin really wants to come to NY. Who knows?

But I’m just not seeing him doing so at $9.5 m.

 

[Beacon]

This isn’t even remotely close to being true. Gorton is probably a middle of the road GM when you look into his moves. Some bad, some good.

He gets massive marks from me for the Zibanejad trade. Almost all his other trades fall into the market value area. I can’t even think of a single move that he’s made that has been flat out bad.

Gorton did exactly what I would have done. All in for the future. Sometimes the value isn't there, but the move had to be pulled. Acquired picks and prospects by the boat: Lias, Howden, Hajek, Rykov, Lindren, K'Andre, Lundqvist, Pionk, Vinni, Keane, Raddysh. Added young NHLers: Zibanejad, Lemieux, Strome, DeAngelo. Then there are picks that we got for Hayes and MZA who will turn into prospects this and next June.

This is what the doctor prescribed, but more treatment is needed: Kreider, Names, Fast must be traded for youth in the next 12 months. Maybe Staal and Smith can bring back a 3rd rounder from a team desperate for defense that doesn't mind taking 1 year of term for 2 playoff runs starting the next TDL.

Keep going high risk, high return for more guys like Chytil, Kravtsov and K'Andre.

Gorton so far did exactly what this team needs to rebuild and contend quickly - just not quick enough for the people demanding Bread and EK.

 

[Beacon]

Patience?!?! I’ve been a fan of this team for 33 years and they’ve won one cup! They have 2 cups in 80 years!! Please, preach your patience stuff somewhere else. Ranger fans have been incredibly patient— and so have I!

The reason the Rangers have 1 Cup since before Pearl Harbor is the lack of patience. This is the first real rebuild effort in the franchise history. Every other time, the team tried to buy itself out of rebuilding into mediocrity with Valery Kamensky and Stephane Quintal. Decade after decade, money and youth was thrown away on the idea that "if you make the playoffs, anything can happen." Except it never happened until we lucked into a bunch of draftees who way, way exceeded draft day expectations: Leetch, Zubov, Richter, Amonte, Weight (some of whom were flipped for others).

I’m commenting on the roster next year— if it plays out exactly the way some are suggesting I say the team will be exactly the same next year. How is that progress?!?!

We will be here, but with a dozen more legit prospects we drafted in 2019 and acquired between the draft and the TDL, staring at yet another draft with multiple first round picks. We will be here knowing we have one of the best farms in the league, if not the best. We will be here with key young players (Zibanejad, Chytil, etc) showing exactly why we acquired and drafted them. We will be here knowing the future is extremely bright and years of real Cup contention are approaching.

 

[bobbop]

Three point game in Arizona again. Rangers opening up some breathing for ninth overall. Coyotes hit the post three times in one sequence during a late game power play.

 

[Avery16]

That is one awful lineup.

Pan+Lemieux isnt that much better than Hayes+MZA that we suddenly become contenders and likely dont even make the playoffs unless Chytil and someone else explode.

Because we aren’t gunning for the playoffs this year. But maybe with Kravstov, Howden, Lindgren, Hajek, Miller and a few others we might soon.

 

[Avery16]

https://nypost.com/2019/02/26/new-ranger-brendan-lemieux-has-his-dads-agitator-dna/

If Lemieux, who will open on the third line with Lias Andersson and Pavel Buchnevich in Wednesday night’s match at the Garden against the Lightning, brings his trademark sandpaper to the rink, he can become the team’s most effective agitator since Sean Avery left.

 

[PuckLuck3043]

Gorton did exactly what I would have done. All in for the future. Sometimes the value isn't there, but the move had to be pulled. Acquired picks and prospects by the boat: Lias, Howden, Hajek, Rykov, Lindren, K'Andre, Lundqvist, Pionk, Vinni, Keane, Raddysh. Added young NHLers: Zibanejad, Lemieux, Strome, DeAngelo. Then there are picks that we got for Hayes and MZA who will turn into prospects this and next June.

This is what the doctor prescribed, but more treatment is needed: Kreider, Names, Fast must be traded for youth in the next 12 months. Maybe Staal and Smith can bring back a 3rd rounder from a team desperate for defense that doesn't mind taking 1 year of term for 2 playoff runs starting the next TDL.

Keep going high risk, high return for more guys like Chytil, Kravtsov and K'Andre.

Gorton so far did exactly what this team needs to rebuild and contend quickly - just not quick enough for the people demanding Bread and EK.

Agree with you on practically everything but trading Kreider. The guy is a 27 yo beast. Why cant we sign him? I could see him being the next captain. I want Zbad and Kreider to be on this team in a few years when they contend again.

 

[I Eat Crow]

All the talk of Panarin and none about Karlsson when the latter has a better chance of ending up here and would make more sense for this team.

Kravstov has potential to be "the guy" here up top. Whoever the Rangers take this year will too if they win the lottery. Things are a lot more foggy if they're in the 7-10 range again.

Recent draft trends indicate that teams take forwards high in the draft. The Rangers will spend their 1st this year on another forward, most likely. The Rangers have quantity but not quality in the defensive farm system. Miller is the only possible top pairing guy I see out of the bunch. The rest are 2nd pairing to 2nd/3rd pairing tweener potential prospects. The Rangers don't have the future "the guy" on defense in their system unless Miller continues to develop and comes away from his freak injury unscathed moving forward.

Karlsson is the guy to go in big on if he's interested in coming here. He would be the best defenseman this team has had since Brian Leetch. He will be 29 at the start of his new contract but will still be an elite player, and "the guy" on defense by the time the Rangers are ready to contend again. Going for him makes more sense if the Rangers luck out in the lottery, but it is something that should be considered regardless if his agent approaches Gorton and says his client wants to play here.

 

[Beacon]

Agree with you on practically everything but trading Kreider. The guy is a 27 yo beast. Why cant we sign him? I could see him being the next captain. I want Zbad and Kreider to be on this team in a few years when they contend again.

The rebuild will continue at least until the summer of 2021 when Hank, Staal, Smith and Shattenkirk come off the books. At that point, Kreider is 30 years old. We have to pay him after next year as a UFA. UFAs are (at most) worth it the first couple of years, and after that they inevitably become an anchor on the team. Precisely because Kreider is a beast in his prime, a team in its prime and going for the Cup will be more than willing to overpay to sign him. All the talk of him getting a reasonable contract is just a basic misunderstanding of the first law of economics: supply and demand. In the summer of 2020, the supply of 6-4 225 pounders who can skate like Olympic speed skaters and shoot with the best of them will be just one guy - Kreider. The demand for him will be 31 teams. There will be multiple GMs who will say to themselves that he may be the difference between winning the Cup and busting out in the Conference Final. Those GMs will gladly pay him a crazy salary that will be an anchor on the team around 2023, but by then, they will be rebuilding anyway, so who cares, let's just go for it in 2020 when that team's window is wide open.

Kreider will not be a $6-7 signing. He will get a crazy contact offer for an insane amount and a full NMC from a GM who wants to win the Cup that year. If Kreider signs a "reasonable" contract with the Rangers that won't be an anchor on their cap when he's on the wrong side of 30 (aka also the time when our youth should be hitting its stride), he'll be leaving millions of dollars per year. I highly doubt that happens. The amount Kreider will be offered by a Cup contender that knows its window will close in a year or two will be astronomical. After all, if you were the GM of a team, wouldn't you be willing to blow your cap situation in 3 years if you knew it will give you a much better shot to win the Cup in the soon-to-close window?

 

[Good Intentions]

I do not believe Kreider is dealt.
I do not believe Panarin is coming.

Thinking outside the Larry Brooks rabbit hole...

Is there a European forward that may be on the radar as an impact add? Nigel Dawes? Half joking...

Is the a strong Lundqvist/Edler national team connection? If the term is right, could that be a fit?

 

[Thirty One]

I do not believe Kreider is dealt.
I do not believe Panarin is coming.

Thinking outside the Larry Brooks rabbit hole...

Is there a European forward that may be on the radar as an impact add? Nigel Dawes? Half joking...

Is the a strong Lundqvist/Edler national team connection? If the term is right, could that be a fit?

If Nigel Dawes wants to come over, I'm listening.

Pretty sure Edler wants to stay in Vancouver.

 

[duhmetreE]

I do not believe Kreider is dealt.
I do not believe Panarin is coming.

Thinking outside the Larry Brooks rabbit hole...

Is there a European forward that may be on the radar as an impact add? Nigel Dawes? Half joking...

Is the a strong Lundqvist/Edler national team connection? If the term is right, could that be a fit?

College Free Agents; a quick search led me to:

Five intriguing NCAA free agents

Some interesting names and talent; Hirose and Duszak

 

[Kakko Schmakko]

Who are we likely to trade during or right before the draft?

My guess is Pionk

 

[The Crypto Guy]

If Nigel Dawes wants to come over, I'm listening.

Pretty sure Edler wants to stay in Vancouver.

You want to bring over 34 year old Nigel Dawes?

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

You want to bring over 34 year old Nigel Dawes?

He would be one of the better players on this team at the moment

 

[The Crypto Guy]

He would be one of the better players on this team at the moment

He couldn't hack it in the NHL as a 24 year old, how exactly is he going to hack it as a 34 year old?

(waits potentially for someone to post the video of him undressing Pronger)

 

[Kakko Schmakko]

Will we sign Nicklas Jensen this time or not?