Speculation: Roster Building Thread - Part XXVI

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So how does that tell you it's remotely sustainable?

He scored 2.59 pts/60 last year.

In 19-20 the following players were relatively young, scored 2.2+ points/60, and did not have an extension history of being a great 5v5 scorer (per my subjective definition of not elite) 500+ mins at 5v5:


Kubalik: 2.59
Burakovsky: 2.55
Laughton 2.53
Thomas 2.46
Mikheyev 2.44
Kahun 2.43
Sanford: 2.34
Konecny 2.32
Grimaldi 2.31
D. Strome 2.3
Gusev 2.29
Bratt 2.21

An average of 2.40

What was their pts/60 in 20-21?

Kubalik: 1.82
Burakovsky: 2.54
Laughton 1.41
Thomas 1.89
Mikheyev 1.29
Kahun 1.22
Sanford: 1.05
Konecny 1.94
Grimaldi 1.43
D. Strome 1.25
Gusev 0.85
Bratt 1.88

An average of 1.58.

Every single one of them saw their production drop next year. All of them, other than Burakovsky, by a substantial margin. So again, why are you assuming one outlier year is meaningful at all?
It doesn’t look like an outlier year to me. It looks like solid progression by a good player. His output matched the eye test for me as well. He was the team’s best forward before getting injured last season.
 
I’m thinking that the Eichel math includes this season on LTIR so cap actually doesn’t become an issue til next year. Or he’s on LTIR til the last month of the season and at that point his cap hit is pretty digestible, right?
That’s correct. Drury would have to find some magic for 2 seasons if he wanted to fit both, before the cap goes up and 1 of kreider/Trouba could be traded presumably.
 
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Well put. The article that said NYR could make Zibby and Eichel work "If they filled out the rest of the roster with league minimum and ELC players" made me want to barf.

No thank you. We've done McKegg and Puempel on the 4th line and it sucks
This point is kinda moot though when you already have Kreider & Trouba locked in, you know you have to pay Fox, Kakko and Laff... & THEN they went out and signed Goodrow to 6 yrs!

There's no way for this team, with these contracts & the ones they are CERTAIN to hand out, to play that game.
 
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It doesn’t look like an outlier year to me. It looks like solid progression by a good player. His output matched the eye test for me as well. He was the team’s best forward before getting injured last season.

So despite the evidence that every other player in a similar position did not keep up the production the next year Chytil is somehow different?
 
The Rangers have a boatload of bottom six forward types coming on ELCs. Othmann, Cooley, Richards, Berard can all fill out a very competent bottom six in future years. It would not be easy to keep Mika and acquire Eichel but it could be doable. The biggest problem I see is that you will have next to no flexibility for a couple of years and the same 7-8 top end players locked in on long term contracts.

If they choose to go that way, it better work. That's where the Leaf comparison comes in.
 
I hate the NYR/Leafs Comps.
We have way better goaltending locked up for 4 more years at a reasonable hit. This team is also good at finding solid goaltending in the later rounds. It’s been a strong point of our scouts for a while now.
Our D prospects we have, and hopefully keep drafting are just a clear cut above what Toronto can produce from their farm.
Our big contracts are staggered and they don’t have NMC for the entirety of their deals. Kreider and trouba are both very moveable in 3 seasons, when the cap will increase as well.
Kakko, and perhaps LaF aren’t getting mega deals on their 2nd contracts. The points haven’t warranted it. Partly because we have good players who are here and took PP time away from them. If there was a silver lining, that’s a big one.
Lastly, Reilly isn’t near Adam fox. Points wise, sure he can produce, but Fox is a true 1D. You need that if your going places in this league.
With what we have currently going fwd, our top6/9 is basically locked in. The only real 2 question marks are 1 and 2 C and one of those problems is going to be solved this year with Zibby/Eichel as the next 5 year option.
Everything else, replacement wise is coming up cheap On ELC deals and 1st contracts filled internally.
That’s why it’s vital to explore Eichel/Zibby options before just handing Zibby a contract that has real concern of becoming an immovable albatross.
Once the 1/2c picture is more clear in for the next 4-5 seasons, we’re not going to be dealing our 1st rd picks for outside help like Muzzin/etc like the leafs.
I expect we wind up with at least 1 of Zibby/Eichel with a small chance of it being both if they can make it work cap wise.
Our trade ammo to accomplish this task
1-2 of Miller/Jones/Lundkvist/Robertson
22 or 23 1st rd pick
Chytil ( if he proves poorly with increased minutes)
kravtsov ( same situation as Chytil)
The rest is staying in house and likely will for a long long time.

I know you are a big Eichel guy but there is too much risk with that player. Some people say Eichel isn't a very good guy. There are character issues with him. Those issues have followed since Boston University. He has a major neck injury which requires a complicated neck surgery which has never been done a professional athlete in North America. The recovery period time fluctuates. First it was 6 weeks. Then it was a couple of months. Now it's four months. A doctor in Toronto who is involved with the rehabilitation process for neck surgeries says six months or more. I was listening to Frank Seravalli's podcast yesterday. He wondered if teams want Eichel to have the surgery as a member of the Sabres and they will circle back to them when Eichel is healthy. Has he heard that from other teams or something he came up with? Maybe a combination. The Sabres don't want that but he got hurt playing for Buffalo. They want the acquiring team to assume all of the risk. No deal. Timing is a big issue.

Even if Eichel was healthy, I am not crazy about having both of them on the team. They are both offensive players. Finesse and skill guys. Both of them are right-handed. Mika has his concussion history and Eichel is one hit away from never playing again. No thank you. The Rangers need more of a 2 way player at center behind Mika. Larkin would fit. Pierre-Luc Dubois would fit. PLD is a free agent again this summer. If Winnipeg wanted to move him later this year at the deadline or next summer, the Rangers should be first in line. They have all of young players available. They can't keep them all. I heard him on the 31 Thoughts podcast with Jeff Marek and Elliotte Friedman last month. PLD is a very good guy. It was a really good interview. He won't cost $10M per year. PLD will be two years away from group III at the expiration of this contract.

The Leafs have so money committed to a handful of players. The Leafs don't have to worry about players coming off entry level contracts because they have no worthwhile players worth paying.

The Rangers already have big money committed to Panarin and Trouba. The Rangers pay Zibanejad and Fox. That gives them four big tickets. Can they really afford another $10M player? Kakko will be a group II next summer. It looks like he will have a breakout year. A 2 or 3 year bridge contract for him won't be cheap. His body of work in his first two seasons wasn't great. Kakko has a breakout year and will get a really good bridge deal. 2 or 3 years worth $5M-$7M. Barzal and Tkachuk got the 3 years/$21M bridge deal. Those players were better in their first two seasons but if Kakko has a big 21-22, his agent will push for a big deal. The Rangers can't afford a contract holdout or the threat of an offer sheet. The Rangers don't have any room for anything longer.
 
Teams with expensive bottom sixes certainly don’t win cups either. The Leafs problem is their defense and goaltending. I don’t see the leaf comps at all. The Rangers built their team from the back out in terms of drafting.

TB gave up two first round picks for Coleman and Goodrow. Those players changed their team. Their line with Gourde was Tampa's best line. This is not Draft Kings. Team jam them all in doesn't work.
 
I know you are a big Eichel guy but there is too much risk with that player. Some people say Eichel isn't a very good guy. There are character issues with him. Those issues have followed since Boston University. He has a major neck injury which requires a complicated neck surgery which has never been done a professional athlete in North America. The recovery period time fluctuates. First it was 6 weeks. Then it was a couple of months. Now it's four months. A doctor in Toronto who is involved with the rehabilitation process for neck surgeries says six months or more. I was listening to Frank Seravalli's podcast yesterday. He wondered if teams want Eichel to have the surgery as a member of the Sabres and they will circle back to them when Eichel is healthy. Has he heard that from other teams or something he came up with? Maybe a combination. The Sabres don't want that but he got hurt playing for Buffalo. They want the acquiring team to assume all of the risk. No deal. Timing is a big issue.

Even if Eichel was healthy, I am not crazy about having both of them on the team. They are both offensive players. Finesse and skill guys. Both of them are right-handed. Mika has his concussion history and Eichel is one hit away from never playing again. No thank you. The Rangers need more of a 2 way player at center behind Mika. Larkin would fit. Pierre-Luc Dubois would fit. PLD is a free agent again this summer. If Winnipeg wanted to move him later this year at the deadline or next summer, the Rangers should be first in line. They have all of young players available. They can't keep them all. I heard him on the 31 Thoughts podcast with Jeff Marek and Elliotte Friedman last month. PLD is a very good guy. It was a really good interview. He won't cost $10M per year. PLD will be two years away from group III at the expiration of this contract.

The Leafs have so money committed to a handful of players. The Leafs don't have to worry about players coming off entry level contracts because they have no worthwhile players worth paying.

The Rangers already have big money committed to Panarin and Trouba. The Rangers pay Zibanejad and Fox. That gives them four big tickets. Can they really afford another $10M player? Kakko will be a group II next summer. It looks like he will have a breakout year. A 2 or 3 year bridge contract for him won't be cheap. His body of work in his first two seasons wasn't great. Kakko has a breakout year and will get a really good bridge deal. 2 or 3 years worth $5M-$7M. Barzal and Tkachuk got the 3 years/$21M bridge deal. Those players were better in their first two seasons but if Kakko has a big 21-22, his agent will push for a big deal. The Rangers can't afford a contract holdout or the threat of an offer sheet. The Rangers don't have any room for anything longer.

I get that their are other maybe even better options for our 1/2 C situation. But the problem is, those players like Larkin are going to cost a lot if they become available at all. Which at this point in time is likely slim to none.
The thing with the Eichel situation is kind of unprecedented. The only way we can possibly trade for a guy of his caliber and age without giving up a piece ( alaF/Kakko/Schneider) that we all don’t want to give up, only happens because he needs surgery and their are risks involved.
Both Zibby and Eichel have their positives and negatives surrounding them going fwd. There are arguments that can be made Risk/Reward wise for having Eichel/Zibby as a 1-2 punch down the middle of it could be accommodated or replacing Zibby with Eichel in our line up and still going after a PLD type like you said.
I’m actually kind of shocked we weren’t one of the front runners in getting PLD, considering how well he and panarin played together. That just tells me the cost was more then we were willing to pay at the time.
Now consider Eichel is the more talented player then PLD, but he would be cheaper to acquire because of cap/surgery.
Ultimately any decision on Eichel will be made only if our medical staff thinks he makes a full recovery, otherwise there’s no point. They seem to be at or past that stage if talks are getting serious.
As far as Eichel’s personality traits go, I really can’t comment on them. I know he’s a fierce competitor and plays hard and demands the most from himself. I don’t think anyone would want him to be captain or even assistant captain here, so that would hopefully help with reducing the added pressure as well.
I’ve never seen any reports that he’s a bad Guy or bad teammate, just not the best leader. We wouldn’t be trading for him for Messier like leadership qualities though.
The jets have given up multiple 1st rd picks for Hayes/stastny trying to acquire their long term 2C to play behind Scheifele. Even though PLD didn’t have a great first year with the Jets, I don’t see any situation where they let him walk or even offer him up in a trade.
It’s basically going to come down to what are our best options available to us.
In a perfect world, Barkov would have went UFA after this year and we just let Zibby walk and sign Barkov for 8 years. Things just don’t work out like that.
Having a chance to land a guy as talented as Eichel at 25-26 whose signed for 5 years not 7-8 that you don’t have to give up top prospects on your team for doesn’t really happen, ever.
It’s because he’s injured/disgruntled that makes the gamble even a possibility. Otherwise, Zibby has us by the balls going into contract negotiations this year.

as far as injury return, I’m under no illusions. I’ve been saying 4-5 prolly 6 months til he can play full contact and be back to feeling normal. That’s been my estimation since the beginning.
 
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I have never been a supporter of acquiring Eichel for a lot of well documented reasons long before his neck injury.

The only problem with that is that I don’t run the team.
Eichel is a move that, in my mind, can start a dark timeline... It's an unnecessary move and risk.

We need a long term 2C or a middle 6 center option. In all likelihood Zibs is re-signing. Barron and/or Goodrow can fill the 3C. Chytil will get a chance to prove he can be that guy. Strome is a buffer this season.
 
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Eichel is a move that, in my mind, can start a dark timeline... It's an unnecessary move and risk.

We need a long term 2C or a middle 6 center option. In all likelihood Zibs is re-signing. Barron and/or Goodrow can fill the 3C. Chytil will get a chance to prove he can be that guy. Strome is a buffer this season.
I don’t see how losing 1 of Jones/Lundkvist
1 of Kravtsov/chytil and a conditional 1st really hurts the farm.
If it pays off, drury looks like a genius. If Eichel gets hurt you LTIR his cap hit.

everyone thinks I’m a huge Eichel supporter. I’m just one of the only ones that isn’t just highlighting just the negatives/ downside of the deal.
I was in the Get Dvorak camp and play it safe. Try and wait the Eichel /Zibby decision to the end of this season/ prior to draft.
It kind of blows because if Zibby would take a 5 even a 6 year contract, it would make a trading for Eichel extremely less desirable. 7-8 years at his age/ cap hit is cause for being cautious.
 
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IMO handing Zibanejad a 6-8 year, $8-10M retirement contract could also easily start a dark timeline. Baffling to me how many people see that as a low or even no risk option.

One of the main arguments in support of it is “what else are they gonna do” which is just not enough for me to justify a decision so massive. That’s classic NYR reasoning.
 
I don’t see how losing 1 of Jones/Lundkvist
1 of Kravtsov/chytil and a conditional 1st really hurts the farm.
If it pays off, drury looks like a genius. If Eichel gets hurt you LTIR his cap hit.

everyone thinks I’m a huge Eichel supporter. I’m just one of the only ones that isn’t just highlighting just the negatives/ downside of the deal.
I was in the Get Dvorak camp and play it safe. Try and wait the Eichel /Zibby decision to the end of this season/ prior to draft.
We lose assets. ( probably 2-3 of Lundkvist, Kravtsov, Chytil Jones, 1st etc )
We let Zibs walk because we cant afford both.

-Zibs -Lundkvist/Kravtsov -Chytil/Jones -1st round pick
+Eichel

It just doesn't make sense and is unneeded risk/poor asset management. It doesn't make us better and depletes a lot of our ammo. If we want that type of player just re-sign Zibs.

If we were trading for Brayden Point type player, that'd be a different story
 
We lose assets. ( probably 2-3 of Lundkvist, Kravtsov, Chytil Jones, 1st etc )
We let Zibs walk because we cant afford both.

-Zibs -Lundkvist/Kravtsov -Chytil/Jones -1st round pick
+Eichel

It just doesn't make sense and is unneeded risk/poor asset management. It doesn't make us better and depletes a lot of our ammo. If we want that type of player just re-sign Zibs.

If we were trading for Brayden Point type player, that'd be a different story

that’s if it goes all bad. If Eichels neck fully heals and returns to normal, he’s younger and better then Zibby.
Literally the only thing Zibby does better then Eichel is his slap shot. And it’s not a huge upgrade on Eichel’s. I’m sure if you told Eichel to stand at the top of the circle and hammer perfect set ups from Fox and Panarin, he’d score quite a bit as well.
Neither of them plays a real physical style. Zibby kind of used to, but the concussions and more recently dropping weight put the physical side to their games about even.

your thinking that Eichel is automatically going to be injured again seriously on this current 5yr deal. That’s not a definite.
Your also not factoring the assets were going to have to pay to move Zibbys contract in the last 2-3 seasons when his game declines. Hopefully not more.

though Point/Eichel are similar talent wise, point is unavailable and that is the type of trade that cost a LaF or a Kakko + to get done. That to me is going backwards
 
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IMO handing Zibanejad a 6-8 year, $8-10M retirement contract could also easily start a dark timeline. Baffling to me how many people see that as a low or even no risk option.

One of the main arguments in support of it is “what else are they gonna do” which is just not enough for me to justify a decision so massive. That’s classic NYR reasoning.
Zibs and Eichel are a wash with risk. If anything Zibs is less risky. One costs a lot more.

I don't buy into 30 year old cliff mantra. 34 years old is typically where the descent starts for top players imo. Any player if severely injured will have issues. I'm comfortable with Zibs to 33-34 years old
 
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