Speculation: Roster Building Thread - Part XXVI

[Lays]

Fox starts at 9 and its likely 10 if he repeats what he did last year. If we get eichel or sign Zib to a similar deal our bottom six will have to consist of mostly entry deals from here on in.

The hope is that Fox and Zib take discounts. If they don’t, then we would have to find a way to move an extra $2-3.5 million, which still isn’t impossible

 

[Trxjw]

Id be surprised if Vegas wasnt in on Eichel and i can guarantee all things being equal that buffalo would rather send him there. So with that said, are we gonna be happy overpaying for eichel? I'm on the fence.

Vegas is already over the cap and relying on Tuch being on IR. They'd have to cut deep into their roster to make the money work.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Vegas is already over the cap and relying on Tuch being on IR. They'd have to cut deep into their roster to make the money work.

1c has cost them an opportunity at 2 cups imo. Theyll clear what they need. They'd only need to trim a lot for this year, smith mcnabb janmark are all ufa after this year which is around 9.5 mill and if eichel misses half the season or more he wont need anywheres close to 10 mill in cap hit.

 

[egelband]

Vegas is already over the cap and relying on Tuch being on IR. They'd have to cut deep into their roster to make the money work.

I’m thinking that the Eichel math includes this season on LTIR so cap actually doesn’t become an issue til next year. Or he’s on LTIR til the last month of the season and at that point his cap hit is pretty digestible, right?

 

[GAGLine]

It’s possible depending on Zibbys contract and if drury can work some magic and move a kreider or a Trouba early.
For arguments sake, say Eichel + Zibby take up 19 mill in cap next season.
Zibby makes 5.5 so Drury would either need Buffalo to eat some cap on Eichel for a couple of years, or have to get really creative to make up that 13.5 mill until he can offload kreider and/or Trouba.
Strome-Gone 4.5 chytil -Gone2.3 -Georgiev gone 2.5. Thats 9.3 replaced with a cheap vet goalie, Barron for Chytil as 3C on a ELC, we also have some buyout money coming off the books. Not a ton, but it adds up.
It really might be doable for 2 -years til the cap goes up again as well.
Would it be hard, yes. Impossible? I’m not so sure. Drury would have to get creative.
They would have to juggle/Bridge some guys for sure. And a lot depends on what Kakko/LaF get on their next deals.

Depends. They might get a million or so retained from Buffalo. Maybe another million from a third team. It’s not impossible. Also if Strome goes back they can in theory kick the can down the road. You’re probably right but I’m not going to rule it out.

That's without Zib, Kakko and a backup goalie. Assume Kravtsov, Jones, Strome and 1st traded to Buffalo.

I can't see a scenario in which Buffalo, or any other team, agrees to retain for that many years. Any retained money would up the cost to acquire him.

Trouba and Kreider both have NMCs. Even if one agreed to waive, it would likely cost us to move them, and which teams are able to take their whole salary?

It's a pipe dream. We are far better off just re-signing Zib and hoping Chytil can be a 2C.

 

[Trxjw]

I’m thinking that the Eichel math includes this season on LTIR so cap actually doesn’t become an issue til next year. Or he’s on LTIR til the last month of the season and at that point his cap hit is pretty digestible, right?

Eichel will be on IR until likely January or February at the earliest. So they'll get cap space there but at some point they have to reconcile it. Not sure what that looks like with the pro-rating. I think Tuch was slated to be out until Dec/Jan. Maybe they can make it work but seems unlikely at first glance.

 

[egelband]

Eichel will be on IR until likely January or February at the earliest. So they'll get cap space there but at some point they have to reconcile it. Not sure what that looks like with the pro-rating. I think Tuch was slated to be out until Dec/Jan. Maybe they can make it work but seems unlikely at first glance.

I would think they can easily keep him out til March or April. Anyhow, it’s all speculation at this point but as long as there’s smoke I’m gonna assume there’s fire.
Not saying I’m even keen to acquire Eichel but it seems like a very “Rangers” move and now that I’m seeing they can probably stash Eichel and Lee the current roster together for a run, I’m starting to believe this has a good chance of happening.
It’s just a matter of the cost and if another team steps up.

 

[Tob]

I wonder if kyperos reporting so specifically that NYR are okay with disc replacement is more to do with Mika's contract negotiation. With conditional picks in play now, the price is down significantly and more appetizing. Drury is likely holding on his number for the extension and the pressure is on Mika to decide if he wants to play out his career as a Ranger or go to UFA in the summer and try for a bigger contract. I think Mika's camp also knows the whole Eichel thing could be a bluff or a red herring at the least. Larry reported Mika wants a number in the 9s. After Couturier, Drury has to be offering $8.3M tops on an 8 year deal with little trade protection in the final 3 years. I think Mika values NYR to finish his career. Things are too good for him here. Barkov was the last domino. I think they up end splitting the difference unless Drury has irons in the fire on Eichel. It just doesn't feel like an $8.5M deal. It feels like a market value $8.93MX8 deal. That'd be brutal I think. On 8 years, it should be around $8.25M but I think there's more pressure on Drury to have an answer at C than we assume.

 

[egelband]

Did anyone actually see Kravtsov get injured?

 

[TheBloodyNine]

Id be surprised if Vegas wasnt in on Eichel and i can guarantee all things being equal that buffalo would rather send him there. So with that said, are we gonna be happy overpaying for eichel? I'm on the fence.

If Vegas was in on Eichel they wouldn't have spent to the cap and beyond this summer.

 

[EdJovanovski]

Did anyone actually see Kravtsov get injured?

Nope, he just didn’t come back after the 1st intermission. There wasn’t any specific play that caused it, it was just some pain from carrying the entire team on his back

 

[Shesterkybomb]

If Vegas was in on Eichel they wouldn't have spent to the cap and beyond this summer.

Maybe.. .. maybe not

 

[egelband]

Nope, he just didn’t come back after the 1st intermission. There wasn’t any specific play that caused it, it was just some pain from carrying the entire team on his back

Mysterious, but apparently minor injury. Not part of the team bonding trip. Do we know if he’s expected to play tomorrow?

 

[EdJovanovski]

Mysterious, but apparently minor injury. Not part of the team bonding trip. Do we know if he’s expected to play tomorrow?

Yes, he practised already (multiple times). He’ll be on the top line tomorrow

 

[bbny]

I wonder if kyperos reporting so specifically that NYR are okay with disc replacement is more to do with Mika's contract negotiation. With conditional picks in play now, the price is down significantly and more appetizing. Drury is likely holding on his number for the extension and the pressure is on Mika to decide if he wants to play out his career as a Ranger or go to UFA in the summer and try for a bigger contract. I think Mika's camp also knows the whole Eichel thing could be a bluff or a red herring at the least. Larry reported Mika wants a number in the 9s. After Couturier, Drury has to be offering $8.3M tops on an 8 year deal with little trade protection in the final 3 years. I think Mika values NYR to finish his career. Things are too good for him here. Barkov was the last domino. I think they up end splitting the difference unless Drury has irons in the fire on Eichel. It just doesn't feel like an $8.5M deal. It feels like a market value $8.93MX8 deal. That'd be brutal I think. On 8 years, it should be around $8.25M but I think there's more pressure on Drury to have an answer at C than we assume.

No way. I don't go higher than 8.92M.

 

[pld459666]

So how does that tell you it's remotely sustainable?

He scored 2.59 pts/60 last year.

In 19-20 the following players were relatively young, scored 2.2+ points/60, and did not have an extension history of being a great 5v5 scorer (per my subjective definition of not elite) 500+ mins at 5v5:


Kubalik: 2.59
Burakovsky: 2.55
Laughton 2.53
Thomas 2.46
Mikheyev 2.44
Kahun 2.43
Sanford: 2.34
Konecny 2.32
Grimaldi 2.31
D. Strome 2.3
Gusev 2.29
Bratt 2.21

An average of 2.40

What was their pts/60 in 20-21?

Kubalik: 1.82
Burakovsky: 2.54
Laughton 1.41
Thomas 1.89
Mikheyev 1.29
Kahun 1.22
Sanford: 1.05
Konecny 1.94
Grimaldi 1.43
D. Strome 1.25
Gusev 0.85
Bratt 1.88

An average of 1.58.

Every single one of them saw their production drop next year. All of them, other than Burakovsky, by a substantial margin. So again, why are you assuming one outlier year is meaningful at all?

I would venture a guess that what we saw was just another rung in the ladder that Chytil has been climbing.

In each of his two years following his rook season Chytil has been getting better, the trajectory would indicate him getting better.

Now, past performance doesn't always equal future success, but with the team getting better and deeper, the odds are that what we saw from Chytil last year will be improved upon this season and next and so on.

 

[RangerBoy]

View attachment 469059

That's without Zib, Kakko and a backup goalie. Assume Kravtsov, Jones, Strome and 1st traded to Buffalo.

I can't see a scenario in which Buffalo, or any other team, agrees to retain for that many years. Any retained money would up the cost to acquire him.

Trouba and Kreider both have NMCs. Even if one agreed to waive, it would likely cost us to move them, and which teams are able to take their whole salary?

It's a pipe dream. We are far better off just re-signing Zib and hoping Chytil can be a 2C.

The Rangers can't be the Leafs where their bottom six forwards are made of guys winding down their careers or they are players who are borderline NHL players. They have talent and ability but they have bounced around from team to team. The Leafs goaltending is awful. They don't have the funds to get anyone better than Mrzaek and Campbell. When Leafs lose in the first round again in May, the same flaws will be exposed.

The Rangers can't build one of those teams. All of the top heavy builds and no depth. Forget about it. Gallant likes to use all 12 forwards and all 6 defensemen.

 

[Fitzy]

The Rangers can't be the Leafs where their bottom six forwards are made of guys winding down their careers or they are players who are borderline NHL players. They have talent and ability but they have bounced around from team to team. The Leafs goaltending is awful. They don't have the funds to get anyone better than Mrzaek and Campbell. When Leafs lose in the first round again in May, the same flaws will be exposed.

The Rangers can't build one of those teams. All of the top heavy builds and no depth. Forget about it. Gallant likes to use all 12 forwards and all 6 defensemen.

Well put. The article that said NYR could make Zibby and Eichel work "If they filled out the rest of the roster with league minimum and ELC players" made me want to barf.

No thank you. We've done McKegg and Puempel on the 4th line and it sucks

 

[CLW]

Eichel is 100% a reclamation project at this point. His injury does not match his price tag. No doubt teams will be more interested if they can renegotiate his contract and pay Buffalo a reasonable price for the transfer. Until then the Eichel situation will just drag on with no joy for either Eichel or the Sabres.

 

[duhmetreE]

Man maybe I'm the one out of touch. I'm expecting Zibs to get $9.5-10M.

Zibs is worth less but will get more. Fox is worth more but will get less. That's how I see it.

Zibs 9.5M per
Fox 8M per

If we pretend and flip their cap hits, all is fine.

 

[jay from jersey]

Man maybe I'm the one out of touch. I'm expecting Zibs to get $9.5-10M.

Zibs is worth less but will get more. Fox is worth more but will get less. That's how I see it.

Zibs 9.5M per
Fox 8M per

If we pretend and flip their cap hits, all is fine.

with what Makar just signed for, I don’t know how’d he get less. There’s a very good case he shouldn’t get more, Makar could have just as easily won the Norris if he played more games. Expect fox to see i similar or exact same deal as the Avs gave Makar

 

[Levitate]

paying for prime talent is exactly what you want to do
you don't hem and haw about giving those guys the big money, you do it.
Where you get into trouble is spending a lot on guys like Goodreow to fill out the roster. Instead you need your prospect pipeline to be working to bring in cheap and talented guy sand your scouting needs to be identifying good players to grab

 

[jay from jersey]

The Rangers can't be the Leafs where their bottom six forwards are made of guys winding down their careers or they are players who are borderline NHL players. They have talent and ability but they have bounced around from team to team. The Leafs goaltending is awful. They don't have the funds to get anyone better than Mrzaek and Campbell. When Leafs lose in the first round again in May, the same flaws will be exposed.

The Rangers can't build one of those teams. All of the top heavy builds and no depth. Forget about it. Gallant likes to use all 12 forwards and all 6 defensemen.

I hate the NYR/Leafs Comps.
We have way better goaltending locked up for 4 more years at a reasonable hit. This team is also good at finding solid goaltending in the later rounds. It’s been a strong point of our scouts for a while now.
Our D prospects we have, and hopefully keep drafting are just a clear cut above what Toronto can produce from their farm.
Our big contracts are staggered and they don’t have NMC for the entirety of their deals. Kreider and trouba are both very moveable in 3 seasons, when the cap will increase as well.
Kakko, and perhaps LaF aren’t getting mega deals on their 2nd contracts. The points haven’t warranted it. Partly because we have good players who are here and took PP time away from them. If there was a silver lining, that’s a big one.
Lastly, Reilly isn’t near Adam fox. Points wise, sure he can produce, but Fox is a true 1D. You need that if your going places in this league.
With what we have currently going fwd, our top6/9 is basically locked in. The only real 2 question marks are 1 and 2 C and one of those problems is going to be solved this year with Zibby/Eichel as the next 5 year option.
Everything else, replacement wise is coming up cheap On ELC deals and 1st contracts filled internally.
That’s why it’s vital to explore Eichel/Zibby options before just handing Zibby a contract that has real concern of becoming an immovable albatross.
Once the 1/2c picture is more clear in for the next 4-5 seasons, we’re not going to be dealing our 1st rd picks for outside help like Muzzin/etc like the leafs.
I expect we wind up with at least 1 of Zibby/Eichel with a small chance of it being both if they can make it work cap wise.
Our trade ammo to accomplish this task
1-2 of Miller/Jones/Lundkvist/Robertson
22 or 23 1st rd pick
Chytil ( if he proves poorly with increased minutes)
kravtsov ( same situation as Chytil)
The rest is staying in house and likely will for a long long time.

 

[Vitto79]

So the Tinordi or Hajek waiver watch is on

 

[TheBloodyNine]

Teams with expensive bottom sixes certainly don’t win cups either. The Leafs problem is their defense and goaltending. I don’t see the leaf comps at all. The Rangers built their team from the back out in terms of drafting.