Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXV - Time to say Goodbye
- Thread starter BBKers
- Start date
- Status
Ofcourse he is. Too many bigger names rumored to be available that will have to be investigated before 2nd or 3rd options(Ranger players) will seriously be pursued.
Money and goal scoring, in that order. They are especially thin on the wings. If they see someone who fits their analytic model and can be obtained at a reasonable cost, they will be in the market. I could see them interested in Rangers other than Hayes and Kreider. They have a lot of middle six, 3-4-5 defense prospects. If there is a prospect or player in their system that intrigues the Rangers, the price might be someone like Vesey (I doubt that would break anyone's heart) or Namestnikov
Someone like Jeff Carter might fit their needs (high cap, low $) too but I don't think they would pay that asset price.
Very unlikely? It's the dumbest shit written in any NY tabloid ever.
The Rangers have won so many games in the last three weeks with Zuccarello running up the stats sheet that the Rangers need more than the Grabner return.
As trade deadline nears, here's why it makes sense for...
The holidays were over one month ago. The Super Bowl is over. Thankfully. NHL trading deadline is three weeks away from today.
The Rangers need to avoid the idea of remaining competitive by retaining their core players while at the same time engaging in a quasi-rebuild, but only around the edges where the impact would be dubious.
The path to disaster & mediocrity. Three years from now we will be sitting here and asking why the Rangers rebuild has stalled and hasn't produced the expected results.
Answer: The Rangers tried to straddle the rebuild & remain "competitive" line too much.
Amazing Kreiderman
Registered User
- Apr 11, 2011
- 45,075
- 40,935
Hmm...here's a little mystery for you guys to solve. What is he doing there on tdl day?
Perhaps he wants to tell fans...Hey I'm still a Ranger
I had a trip planned to NY and was going to bring my stick to have signed by Brassard when he had a signing session planned for 2016. He was traded just weeks before and the session was canceled. I still have a game used Brassard stick, but not signed
- Aug 5, 2010
- 13,881
- 9,514
If I held a lottery pick that I knew would bring $100 there’s no way in hell I’m selling it for less unless I’m desperate. Otherwise it’s stupid. Either way the fact that I paid $5 is irrelevant to the value of the ticket and what I’d expect to get for it.
Serious question because I have no idea where you guys get all these stats. How did Spooner's advanced stats look while he was here?
It seems like the nhl needs to give up the dream of having a franchise in Arizona. Been too many stumbling blocks over the years.
Kocur Dill
picklicious
- Feb 7, 2010
- 3,335
- 1,878
Carpiniello brought up Brassard as an example as to why the Rangers don’t want to pay Hayes. The Rangers signed Brassard at 27. The Rangers traded him at 29. Brassard has been awful during the last 3 years of his contract. He wasn’t very good in his last season as Ranger either. The Rangers don’t want to left holding the bag with a signed Hayes in his early 30’s.
The Rangers feel fortunate they were able to trade Brassard when they did.
In the next paragraph, Carpiniello brings up the Rangers pursuing a few agents this summer. He believes the Rangers should speed up the rebuilding process. He has been lead to believe the Rangers will look to speed up the rebuilding process. We heard the same thing last summer.
If the Rangers are concerned about aging curves, why are they signing a free agent like Panarin who will be under contract until 34 at $11M? Hayes and Panarin are the same age. Contradicting statements. Panarin isn’t subject to aging curves?
He also brought up the Rangers possibly signing a player to an offer sheet. He does not mention the draft pick compensation involved with an offer sheet. Not to mention the backlash. The Rangers have good young players and want to add more young players. Do they want someone to offer sheet their guys? No. Don’t go there.
He also brought up the Rangers trading some of their young players and draft picks to move the rebuild along. We heard the same thing last year too. Gorton talked about being a popular guy at the draft having so many assets. They would trade for younger established players. Nothing happened.
The rebuild has barely started.
Everyone wants to speed up the rebuilding. If we want to speed up the rebuilding, trade everything and everyone and tank it. The Rangers will get the players they need to speed the rebuild. They aren’t getting them in group III free agency or picking in the middle of the first round. They keep dealing in the periphery instead of attacking the issue head on.
It’s not like the Rangers are some great team and the possibility of them having a top pick in this draft is a crazy concept. A few more losses and the other teams winning,the Rangers are right there. Give them a little push so they get there.
The Rangers feel fortunate they were able to trade Brassard when they did.
In the next paragraph, Carpiniello brings up the Rangers pursuing a few agents this summer. He believes the Rangers should speed up the rebuilding process. He has been lead to believe the Rangers will look to speed up the rebuilding process. We heard the same thing last summer.
If the Rangers are concerned about aging curves, why are they signing a free agent like Panarin who will be under contract until 34 at $11M? Hayes and Panarin are the same age. Contradicting statements. Panarin isn’t subject to aging curves?
He also brought up the Rangers possibly signing a player to an offer sheet. He does not mention the draft pick compensation involved with an offer sheet. Not to mention the backlash. The Rangers have good young players and want to add more young players. Do they want someone to offer sheet their guys? No. Don’t go there.
He also brought up the Rangers trading some of their young players and draft picks to move the rebuild along. We heard the same thing last year too. Gorton talked about being a popular guy at the draft having so many assets. They would trade for younger established players. Nothing happened.
The rebuild has barely started.
Everyone wants to speed up the rebuilding. If we want to speed up the rebuilding, trade everything and everyone and tank it. The Rangers will get the players they need to speed the rebuild. They aren’t getting them in group III free agency or picking in the middle of the first round. They keep dealing in the periphery instead of attacking the issue head on.
It’s not like the Rangers are some great team and the possibility of them having a top pick in this draft is a crazy concept. A few more losses and the other teams winning,the Rangers are right there. Give them a little push so they get there.
Last edited:
Probably because Panarin is an elite star in this league and Brassard is at best a second line center.
As trade deadline nears, here's why it makes sense for...
Carp is suggesting that Gorton will go NBA on the NHL after this season. I never felt that RC gets the info that Brooks get. The problem Gorton have is that all his horrible contracts are for two more years. Next season we are paying over 22m for Staal, Shatty, Smith and Girardi. The year after its 20m for those Ds.
Carp is suggesting that Gorton will go NBA on the NHL after this season. I never felt that RC gets the info that Brooks get. The problem Gorton have is that all his horrible contracts are for two more years. Next season we are paying over 22m for Staal, Shatty, Smith and Girardi. The year after its 20m for those Ds.
The rangers will never sign anyone to an offer sheet for as long as sather has some role with the organization.
No one should be surprised by all the clamoring to deep dive into UFA. People aren’t patient, there was an entire gang of people here who went from “I’m down for the rebuild” to “Let’s sign Tavares and trade for Karlsson” Over night.
I’m not so sure the FO is that patient either. This team has shown nothing that should make anyone believe that they’re closing in on being great. The core isn’t even set and there’s already talk about keeping most of the old guard together?
That’s a sure fire way to turn a 3 year process into a 5+ year one.
No one should be surprised by all the clamoring to deep dive into UFA. People aren’t patient, there was an entire gang of people here who went from “I’m down for the rebuild” to “Let’s sign Tavares and trade for Karlsson” Over night.
I’m not so sure the FO is that patient either. This team has shown nothing that should make anyone believe that they’re closing in on being great. The core isn’t even set and there’s already talk about keeping most of the old guard together?
That’s a sure fire way to turn a 3 year process into a 5+ year one.
DutchShamrock
Registered User
The commentary on the Carpinello article are valid concerns. Especially the D. Not only is it cap space, those are 3 spots tied up by players that aren't a part of the solution in the future. 2 will play and 1 will probably sit but it makes me wonder if this summer is really the time to strike.
I would really like to take one more year to strip more out. Star players finally caught on. It will be more important than ever to not hand out bad contracts and carry dead weight. I hate rushing, it just compounds problems down the line.
I would really like to take one more year to strip more out. Star players finally caught on. It will be more important than ever to not hand out bad contracts and carry dead weight. I hate rushing, it just compounds problems down the line.
SA16
Sixstring
There is no reason to be afraid of offer sheets. If a team wants to offer sheet our players by all means let them do so. The compensation on them is generally high enough that any non-matched offer would be more than you'd get in a trade anyway. If someone wants Buchnevich and they offer sheet him for 5M sure I'll take the 1st/3rd. If they offer him for 3.5M then it's just going to get matched anyway for a fine deal that we didn't have to bother negotiating.
I don’t think we’re offer sheeting anyone. I think we’re going all in on Panarin and EK. They’ll try and move Shattenkirk or staal or both out before July 1 to do it but I think that’s the direction. We”ll most likely have 3 first rounders this summer. That would make 8 in 3 years. With that gorton will want to add some elite veteran talent to go with Kreider Mika Skjei DeAngelo Hank and ugh Pionk
Irishguy42
Mr. Preachy
Agreed with @SA16
If we offersheet a player, it's not like suddenly the Rangers will have to deal with multiple offer sheets on several of their players as "revenge" and will either lost half their team or be forced up to the cap just because.
In all likelihood, it'll just be a single offersheet, if even that happens, for a single player, which is more than manageable.
The stigma around offersheets is dumb.
If we offersheet a player, it's not like suddenly the Rangers will have to deal with multiple offer sheets on several of their players as "revenge" and will either lost half their team or be forced up to the cap just because.
In all likelihood, it'll just be a single offersheet, if even that happens, for a single player, which is more than manageable.
The stigma around offersheets is dumb.
Will we get that top guy to build around if we keep tanking?
As we are seeing this year, there will always be another handful of teams tanking too. What are the odds that you will finish 28-31 if you try your best to tank? I would say 75% maybe, and then you are more as less as likely to finish 30-31 as 29 basically.
2017 had no franchise players in the top 3.
2016 had 2 in the top 3.
2015 had 2 in the top 3.
2014 had none in the top 3.
2013 had 1 in the top 3.
2012 had none in the top 3.
2011 had none in the top 3.
2010 had two in the top 3.
2009 had two in the top 3.
2008 had two in the top 3.
11 of 33.
So if you tank for 100 years:
If you try your best to tank, you will finish bottom three, 75 times.
Of the 75 times you finish bottom three, you will get a top 3 pick 37.5 times.
Of the 37.5 times you get a top 3 pick, you will get a franchise player 12 times.
Odds of getting a franchise player with a top 3 pick if we tank:
1 year - 12%
2 years - 24%
3 years - 36%
4 years - 48 %
5 years - 60%
6 years - 72%
7 years - 84%
And so forth. In other words, you need to tank 5 years to get a better shot than a coinflip for a franchise guy.
62.5 times remained when you didn't get a top 3 pick. Lets say that you never get a lower pick than top 10 those years. You can still pick up a franchise player with a top 4-10 pick. Looking at the last 10 years, the odds for that is:
2008 - 1 franchise player picked 4-10
2009 - 1 franchise player picked 4-10 (here I am counting OEL as one)
2010 - 0 franchise player picked 4-10
2011 - 0 franchise player picked 4-10
2012 - 0 franchise player picked 4-10
2013 - 0 franchise player picked 4-10 (Seth Jones didn't make my cut,)
2014 - 0 franchise player picked 4-10
2015 - 1 franchise player picked 4-10 (I am counting Marner)
2016 - 1 franchise player picked 4-10 (Mat Tkachuk counted)
2017 - ??? franchise player picked 4-10 (jury is still out)
meaning that the odds of getting a franchise player with a top 4-10 pick is 4/63 = 6,3%
This changes the outlook a little bit, taking that into consideration the odds of getting a franchise player if we really try to tank as much as we can would be:
[TBODY]
[/TBODY]
Very roughly. If we tank all we can for 19/20, 20/21, 21/22 and 22/23 it should get us about a 75% shot at getting a franchise player like an Eichel, OEL, Pieterangelo, Matthews, Laine.
As we are seeing this year, there will always be another handful of teams tanking too. What are the odds that you will finish 28-31 if you try your best to tank? I would say 75% maybe, and then you are more as less as likely to finish 30-31 as 29 basically.
2017 had no franchise players in the top 3.
2016 had 2 in the top 3.
2015 had 2 in the top 3.
2014 had none in the top 3.
2013 had 1 in the top 3.
2012 had none in the top 3.
2011 had none in the top 3.
2010 had two in the top 3.
2009 had two in the top 3.
2008 had two in the top 3.
11 of 33.
So if you tank for 100 years:
If you try your best to tank, you will finish bottom three, 75 times.
Of the 75 times you finish bottom three, you will get a top 3 pick 37.5 times.
Of the 37.5 times you get a top 3 pick, you will get a franchise player 12 times.
Odds of getting a franchise player with a top 3 pick if we tank:
1 year - 12%
2 years - 24%
3 years - 36%
4 years - 48 %
5 years - 60%
6 years - 72%
7 years - 84%
And so forth. In other words, you need to tank 5 years to get a better shot than a coinflip for a franchise guy.
62.5 times remained when you didn't get a top 3 pick. Lets say that you never get a lower pick than top 10 those years. You can still pick up a franchise player with a top 4-10 pick. Looking at the last 10 years, the odds for that is:
2008 - 1 franchise player picked 4-10
2009 - 1 franchise player picked 4-10 (here I am counting OEL as one)
2010 - 0 franchise player picked 4-10
2011 - 0 franchise player picked 4-10
2012 - 0 franchise player picked 4-10
2013 - 0 franchise player picked 4-10 (Seth Jones didn't make my cut,)
2014 - 0 franchise player picked 4-10
2015 - 1 franchise player picked 4-10 (I am counting Marner)
2016 - 1 franchise player picked 4-10 (Mat Tkachuk counted)
2017 - ??? franchise player picked 4-10 (jury is still out)
meaning that the odds of getting a franchise player with a top 4-10 pick is 4/63 = 6,3%
This changes the outlook a little bit, taking that into consideration the odds of getting a franchise player if we really try to tank as much as we can would be:
| 18,00% if we do it 1 year |
| 36,00% if we do it 2 years |
| 48,00% if we do it 3 years |
| 60,00% if we do it 4 years |
| 72,00% if we do it 5 years |
Very roughly. If we tank all we can for 19/20, 20/21, 21/22 and 22/23 it should get us about a 75% shot at getting a franchise player like an Eichel, OEL, Pieterangelo, Matthews, Laine.
offer sheets are unlikely, not because of fear of retaliation, but because they require you to severally overpay for a player which then screws up your cap structure. if you don't the other team will just match and say thanks for negotiating...
the only scenario it would make any sense is if you had someone willing to sign a 1 year deal for a monster cap hit and then negotiate an extension for the proper amount, but thats a huge risk so the player is gonna make you overpay for 7 years.
the only scenario it would make any sense is if you had someone willing to sign a 1 year deal for a monster cap hit and then negotiate an extension for the proper amount, but thats a huge risk so the player is gonna make you overpay for 7 years.
- Status
Latest posts
-
-
Pre-Game Talk: Week of Home with our Heads in our Asses (Wed vs. NJD, Fri vs. MIN)- Latest: expatriatedtexan
-
