Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXII

[RGY]

If Avs are adding it should be on the blue line. Talk about a team desperate for a top-4 d-man.

They can have Skjei

 

[RGY]

At the end of the day, the HF boards favor prospects significantly more than a lot of other boards, so there's always a mindset to not want to trade any of them, unless you're talking about prospects outside your top 10 or even 15.

I mean you have people on the Avs board who think the player Stastny was at 32 is better than Hayes is at 26. Again, that's fine. But that's the mindset that has a team on the outside looking in ten years after having the third pick in the 2009, despite also being in a position to draft first overall, second overall, fourth overall, and tenth overall twice --- aka 6 top 10 selections.

Yea the Avalanche get off way too easy in this discussion. Edmonton has been hammered for years, and rightfully so, but the Avs kinda quietly sneak by in the discussion of ‘the never ending rebuild.’

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Hayes does nothing for the Avs. Sure he may help them make the playoffs but they are 1st round exit waiting to happen. Now Boston on the other hand should be after Hayes. If I was Boston's GM I'd pay premium.

They have one line. They could absolutely use Hayes.

We could legit turn them into a threat in the west with the pieces we have.

 

[Ola]

Great, but if sakic ain’t trading anything good, he can stick it.

Everyone around these teams are obsessed with building long-term. It has become a thing. Now you do need to build long-term, sure. But you can't 'rebuild' forever. There is a downside to sucking too. When can discuss AV's ability to bring up youth, but facts are that AV literary managed to make NHLers of every single kid not named McIlrath that we fed to him, and all those kids more or less reached or exceeded expectations (Miller, Kreider, Lindberg, Fast, Skjei and many others). But that was when we had a good team. Now when we start to tank even Skjei is starting to struggle more and more and all other kids are having issues. Is any kid doing well right now? If we are sucking for 4-5 more years a ton of damage will be done, its naive to expect anything else. What is Sakic's long-term plan? When are they supposed to win a series in the POs the next time? They haven't won a series in 11 years. People thought they were done rebuilding in 2014 after that great regular season. Two years later they get 48 pts...

It was the same with Tampa, people thought they were done rebuilding in 2011. They went to the conference finals with a team full of great looking young players and some good vets. Then they miss the POs the following 2 years.

Some are trashing Stevie Yzerman, why did he do this or that move. Look at that contract he gave to X. 'Yzerman sucks'. Yzerman has the best looking team in the league for a reason. But there is a certain type of move that you cannot just sit and wait for a perfect opportunity for. He brought in support for their younger players and eventually it put them over the top. A team like Colorado must do the same. But there is zero pressure on those teams form the outside to get it done.

 

[Edge]

Yea the Avalanche get off way too easy in this discussion. Edmonton has been hammered for years, and rightfully so, but the Avs kinda quietly sneak by in the discussion of ‘the never ending rebuild.’

Because, not unlike some of the other teams we regularly hammer, the Avs have struggled to add to pieces --- either through the draft or through other means.

They add intriguing pieces, individual pieces that look very good on paper, but they've struggled to build an actual team.

This is a roster that at various points has featured Duchene, Stastny ROR, and MacKinnon down the middle. It's featured Landeskog and Rantanen on the wings, and Barrie on defense.

But it's also a roster that hasn't a player outside of the top 10 play more than 100 games since Butcher, taken in 2013 --- and he's in his second year with the Devils.

Prior to that you'd have to go all the way back to 2010 with Bournival to find a skater who hit the century mark, and he's been a journeyman tweener to this point (and not for the Avs). So beyond that, you'd actually have to go all the way back to 2009 with ROR and Barrie to find players the Avs selected, outside the top 10, who actually became significant contributors for them. We're going on 10 years.

They're more or less been a tire fire any time they haven't picked in the top 10 for almost a decade now.

 

[RGY]

Because, not unlike some of the other teams we regularly hammer, the Avs have struggled to add to pieces --- either through the draft or through other means.

They add intriguing pieces, individual pieces that look very good on paper, but they've struggled to build an actual team.

This is a roster that at various points has featured Duchene, Stastny ROR, and MacKinnon down the middle. It's featured Landeskog and Rantanen on the wings, and Barrie on defense.

But it's also a roster that hasn't a player outside of the top 10 play more than 100 games since Butcher, taken in 2013 --- and he's in his second year with the Devils.

Prior to that you'd have to go all the way back to 2010 with Bournival to find a skater who hit the century mark, and he's been a journeyman tweener to this point (and not for the Avs). So beyond that, you'd actually have to go all the way back to 2009 with ROR and Barrie to find players the Avs selected, outside the top 10, who actually became significant contributors for them. We're going on 10 years.

They're more or less been a tire fire any time they haven't picked in the top 10 for almost a decade now.

So essentially theyre management, specifically, organization’s scouting department is a dumpster fire.

 

[Edge]

Everyone around these teams are obsessed with building long-term. It has become a thing. Now you do need to build long-term, sure. But you can't 'rebuild' forever. There is a downside to sucking too. When can discuss AV's ability to bring up youth, but facts are that AV literary managed to make NHLers of every single kid not named McIlrath that we fed to him, and all those kids more or less reached or exceeded expectations (Miller, Kreider, Lindberg, Fast, Skjei and many others). But that was when we had a good team. Now when we start to tank even Skjei is starting to struggle more and more and all other kids are having issues. Is any kid doing well right now? If we are sucking for 4-5 more years a ton of damage will be done, its naive to expect anything else. What is Sakic's long-term plan? When are they supposed to win a series in the POs the next time? They haven't won a series in 11 years. People thought they were done rebuilding in 2014 after that great regular season. Two years later they get 48 pts...

It was the same with Tampa, people thought they were done rebuilding in 2011. They went to the conference finals with a team full of great looking young players and some good vets. Then they miss the POs the following 2 years.

Some are trashing Stevie Yzerman, why did he do this or that move. Look at that contract he gave to X. 'Yzerman sucks'. Yzerman has the best looking team in the league for a reason. But there is a certain type of move that you cannot just sit and wait for a perfect opportunity for. He brought in support for their younger players and eventually it put them over the top. A team like Colorado must do the same. But there is zero pressure on those teams form the outside to get it done.

For teams like the Avs, Oilers, etc., it's the mindset that there's always tomorrow. It's easy to think this time will be different, or to get swept away in fantasy projections. Sometimes, it's the only refuge fans have. Look at some of the discussions we see on here, and we're about a year our from "The Letter." Now add multiple years to that noise.

However, just like there's a risk in moving too much young talent for a "win-now" approach, there's also the inherent risk of falling a bit too much for your own prospects.

The truth of the matter is that a lot of this teams have had the opportunity to draft elite pieces, and that's half the battle right there. But the difference in their fortunes is how they do with the other half of the equation --- surrounding said talent and building a team. That comes through development, the ability to find talent that isn't staring you in the face, trading, free agents, etc.

The difference between a team like Tampa, and say the Avs, is the ability to do the second half of the equation. They landed their elite talents in Hedman and Stamkos, and then they surrounded them with top end talents they found outside the first, made trades from the depth they acquired, and signed guys when they needed to. Along the way, they also uncovered another elite talent in Kucherov.

Along the way, they've had some pretty big misses as well --- Connolly, Koekkeok, Drouin and others were either disappointments, or flat out busts for them. But they did well enough in other areas that they were able to cover for it and move forward. (Something to consider when we look for perfection from the Rangers.)

So in the end, it's not even that the Avs had to hit every pick and transaction out of the park to be successful. But they couldn't be abysmal either, and too often they've been abysmal.

 

[Edge]

So essentially theyre management, specifically, organization’s scouting department is a dumpster fire.

Management as a hole (misspelling intended). Scouting didn't give them a ton to work with, and management didn't do the organization any favors.

They appear to be turning it around, but I think they have to be careful not to fall into the same trap of simply accumulating talents with high picks and then not being able to supplement those talents.

 

[darko]

They have one line. They could absolutely use Hayes.

We could legit turn them into a threat in the west with the pieces we have.

They are going nowhere with that blue line. Only 2 West teams gave up more goals than Avs. Canucks and Hawks.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

They are going nowhere with that blue line. Only 2 West teams gave up more goals than Avs. Canucks and Hawks.

Goaltending has done them in more so than the D. As I said earlier, if hank ever wanted out....

But there are even upgrades to be had there who aren’t hank. Hayes May be a long term piece for them and they need to start to build depth beyond their top line, they won’t be able to do it with just draft picks.

 

[SA16]

The Avalanche should very much be in win now mode while they have MacKinnon signed to a cheap long term deal and Rantanen on an ELC

 

[Edge]

And let us not forget that they could trade their own pick, and still potentially have the top pick in the draft --- if not a top 5 selection.

So let's even say they don't pick in the top 3, how does that roster look with Hayes as a second line center and, say, Bowen Byram now on the defense?

Not perfect, but a heck of a lot better.

 

[EpicDing]

With Anaheim imploding, maybe we can grab one of their young Dmen.

 

[RGY]

With Anaheim imploding, maybe we can grab one of their young Dmen.

What I would do for Brandon Montour...

 

[Gardner McKay]

Who can we pawn to rip them off? Kreider for their unprotected first + prospects + cap dump to sweeten the deal? I’d also entertain Colorado at the draft for Ottawa’s pick if they don’t get the top pick. Imagine the Rangers having 3 top 10 picks in a single draft. The chances of that happening are probably slim, but lemme dream for one night ok.

For the 1 millionth time - Kreider would be enough to help them sneak into the PO's. Trading Kreider with the major value piece being the unprotected 1st is an absolutely awful idea.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

Edmonton has nothing I want for Kreider

Bouchard - don't like him as a prospect, didn't want them to draft him
Puljujarvi - would take a chance on him but he's not a centerpiece anymore
Yamamoto - probably their most enticing prospect, but again I don't think he's a center piece

 

[Irishguy42]

EDM needs to offload salary if they want to be buyers. So it would likely be pieces from their NHL roster

 

[Fitzy]

Every time I look at that Lucic contract I throw up in my mouth a little bit. It makes Bobby Ryan look like a steal. I can't even conceive of what the cost would be to unload that monstrosity.

 

[Edge]

For the 1 millionth time - Kreider would be enough to help them sneak into the PO's. Trading Kreider with the major value piece being the unprotected 1st is an absolutely awful idea.

Which goes back to something I said yesterday (which I know you already agreed with):

We keep talking about acquiring picks from teams that have lottery odds, but are currently outside the top 10 picks, because they want to make the playoffs.

However, we can’t forgot the second part of that equation: acquiring those picks would require giving up something of significant value.

And giving up something of significant value increases the odds that said pick we acquired would no longer be a lottery pick. So we’re right back to trading a guy for a pick in the 20s. ​

So if we're doing deals based on the picks, that's a very bad idea. The only time you do that, maybe, is after the season is over and the pick is set. Even then, it usually depends on knowing that the guy you want is on the board (aka the rumored Keller deal back in 2016).

If, and I do mean IF, the Rangers were looking to move a guy like Kreider, we wouldn't want to do it just for Edmonton's pick. You'd have to be getting multiple assets --- including a high-end asset.

And before anyone even suggests it, Pool Party would not count fit that last criteria.

 

[Edge]

EDM needs to offload salary if they want to be buyers. So it would likely be pieces from their NHL roster

The conversation would start with Nurse for me, include a first, and then require an additional component(s).

 

[East Coast Bias]

Edmonton is a tire fire of shit assets. I wouldn't even answer their call on kreider.

 

[Edge]

Edmonton is a tire fire of **** assets. I wouldn't even answer their call on kreider.

There are a few good assets there, but I wouldn't want their mysteries.

 

[Avery16]

What number was Lindgren wearing in Hartford?

 

[Off Sides]

The valuation on Kreider turns to what next deadline if he is not extending?

These asks for a player who has the rest of this and next year left under contract seem kind of pie in the sky to me.

He's likely worth two rentals returns for his next two playoffs and some extra for his next regular season.

I don't see the market giving up early picks, lottery picks, some other player who is nearly as good with more term left, a younger cost controlled player who could be nearly as good.

By next year deadline when it's theorized Kreider is asking for something like 7M for 6 years with a full no movement clause, after the Rangers are again not good all season, I think is going to change the optics quite a bit.

 

[East Coast Bias]

There are a few good assets there, but I wouldn't want their mysteries.

I think part of it is me just being so tired of hearing puljujärvi's name.

He's gonna be 31 playing in the Finnish elite league and people will be like "anyone up for taking a flyer on pool party? he's looking good lately"