Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XXI

[Mikos87]

The only teams I see spending way more on signing bonuses are Washington and Toronto, but neither of them are worried about missing the playoffs are they?

Although maximizing playoff revenue is a whole other story.

Think of it this way. Actual dollar spent and when. So the team I'm alluding to is one of the highest spending (salary) teams out there.

Then you have bonuses. When those dollars go out in July.... the team starts their year deeper in the red. Say they don't have a contending team... then you have lower interest in season tickets.... and then add to that they aren't drawing fans into games.

So those bonuses hurt even further. Now you have injury woes, they are paying guys to not play... insurance is there but it's not full coverage.

Does EDM struggle to draw fans? Do they lack a draw? Despite a lack of contention?

 

[BobMarleyNYR]

How has DeAngelo been bad this season? He’s been our best defenseman imo lol

The D has been pretty terrible. He's been a bit worse than Pionk positionally, passable with a big stretch. Better but until he's .5ppg, he really shouldn't be in the NHL. Staal and Claesson have been the best because they make no difference. Staal has actually been a plus sometimes.

 

[Profet]

The D has been pretty terrible. He's been a bit worse than Pionk positionally, passable with a big stretch. Better but until he's .5ppg, he really shouldn't be in the NHL. Staal and Claesson have been the best because they make no difference. Staal has actually been a plus sometimes.

Maybe the first 15 games or so... But Staal has been Staal for a stretch now.

 

[NYRFANMANI]

Zibanejad: de facto carry. 1st line player for us. Ideally he stays on a good contract and ends up on the 2nd line. Keep (or a king's ransom)
Zuccarello: He gave us everything. The slapshot to the temple took away some of him. He isn't the same, can't be. I love him, but he has to be traded for assets.
Kreider: I don't get the brainfarts and inconsistency. He's a force, more so if he could control himself better. 2nd line winger ideally. Keep (or a king's ransom)
Fast: One of our best players. Bottom 6 staple. Have to keep.
Namestnikov: really don't care. Not much flair or stamp to his game. A plug, as much as I hate saying that. Trade for assets.
Vesey: I don't get him. Not good enough for a NHL top 6 role, not good enough defensively for a bottom 6 role. I guess we keep and see. Transitional piece imo.
Hayes: Blaze it up! Our only truly valuable asset for the deadline market. Gotta cash in. Will miss him though, great player when in form.
Buchnevich: Time is getting up ... definitely a transitional piece now. Doesn't ignite shit on himself. Don't see the value on the market either. Keep and let's see.
Strome: I guess his two way game is sound. Could end up being a valuable bottom 6 piece. Keep and let's see.

We keep the kids obviously.

Shattenkirk: Well, needless to say it didn't work out so far. I don't think he's a tradable asset at this point. If you can, good. If not, he's a transitional piece obv.
Smith: Intradable as well we have to assume. Just another example of a terribad NYR signings.
Staal: NMC
Skjei: I think he's too young to give up on him. His speed a key. Keep and see. He's still tradable in the future.
Pionk: I think he's a transitional piece ultimately. Shows nice poise and overall ability, but he's small. Keep and see.
DeAngelo: I hope he pans out. Puck-handling and skating are legit. Must keep and see.
McQuaid: Get what you can. A 2nd .. mayybe?
Claesson: Transitional player. Plays until one of the kids (Hajek) come up.

Lundqvist: The King. nuff said ("the King can do as he likes!")
Georgie: Keep and develop, sell for a 1st.

 

[bobbop]

Is Panarin really in the same class of players as Tavares, or a Crosby/McDavid? I don't know that he's established that. I wouldn't want to commit a cap-choking hit for the better part of a decade to any player outside of that class.

Crosby and McDavid no. Tavares and Chara yes.

 

[bobbop]

This has been my argument too. Plus, the Bruins signed him in an off-season after they missed the playoffs by 18 points. It's not enough to wait to be good before making moves. You have to anticipate being good.

Expect success!

 

[bobbop]

I talked to an NHL friend from the west today and he told me not to expect a killing at the trade deadline. He thinks the market is shaping up as having more sellers than buyers this year. Expects some of the teams on the outskirts of the playoff race will trade secondary pieces to get into the playoffs but he sees only five teams in the west with a legitimate shot at coming out of the conference. Would be shocked if Colorado makes a big move.

 

[ZiGOODejad]

I talked to an NHL friend from the west today and he told me not to expect a killing at the trade deadline. He thinks the market is shaping up as having more sellers than buyers this year. Expects some of the teams on the outskirts of the playoff race will trade secondary pieces to get into the playoffs but he sees only five teams in the west with a legitimate shot at coming out of the conference. Would be shocked if Colorado makes a big move.

Maybe they should look to sell a little earlier then deadline day

 

[kovazub94]

Our top 5 pick will be a forward. Our Forward core is way better of than our Dcore right now. It will be easier and quicker to fix... fix the small thing first then you can put all your focus on the big thing...

You guess about top5 being forward is probably right but your logic is flawed. See below.

Because defensemen take the longest to develop they should be the first thing fixed. Because once you have a solid d-core, forwards can step in at 19 and start contributing.

Which, by the way, is essentially what Gorton is trying to do. He's acquired 5 defensive prospects from outside the organization in the last 18 months. The last draft, he took 6 D in 10 picks, including 5 of the first 7. The draft has been an interesting approach, taking forwards early, but D later. The top-10 in D scoring last season had 3 1st rounders in the 15-30 range, 3 outside the first round, 3 top-5 picks, and 1 UDFA. Meanwhile, the top-10 F scoring last season had 7 top-5 picks, 2 other 1st round picks, and 1 2nd round pick.

The message here seems to be that you can find value among defensemen later in the draft more easily than you can among forwards.

Agree.

The only thing to add is that there’s probably another connection to the drafting methodology you noted to the fact that D is taking longer to develop. Forwards development curve is more “predictable” than D, as in, for example, x spot forward is likelier to be better than x+20 spot F than y spot D compared to y+20 D.

 

[Avery16]

Crosby and McDavid no. Tavares and Chara yes.

I’d rather give that contract to a Tavares or a Malkin. I think Panarin is going to end up more like a Kovalev. Not a bad player in any sense, but not worth that term and $.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

I’d rather give that contract to a Tavares or a Malkin. I think Panarin is going to end up more like a Kovalev. Not a bad player in any sense, but not worth that term and $.

The problem is that we need a sniper,we may draft one we may not. It's been our achilles heel since a while. Panarin fills that spot, he most likely will be overpaid in year 5 or 6 but that's the way things go these days. We wont have any bad contracts in 2 years so since hes basically free I take him and add him to our prospect pool and hope for the best, it's a gamble I feel is worth taking especially since cap isnt going to be an issue for a while.

 

[Avery16]

The problem is that we need a sniper,we may draft one we may not. It's been our achilles heel since a while. Panarin fills that spot, he most likely will be overpaid in year 5 or 6 but that's the way things go these days. We wont have any bad contracts in 2 years so since hes basically free I take him and add him to our prospect pool and hope for the best, it's a gamble I feel is worth taking especially since cap isnt going to be an issue for a while.

Wait, if we’re overpaying in years 5 and 6 how are we also not overpaying for years 7 and 8? It’s rosy enough to expect that the contract will be worthwhile for years 1-4.

 

[bobbop]

Wait, if we’re overpaying in years 5 and 6 how are we also not overpaying for years 7 and 8? It’s rosy enough to expect that the contract will be worthwhile for years 1-4.

The most we are going to be able to give him is seven years.

I’m not particularly worried about years 5 (he will be 31) and 6 (when he will be 32)

Buying an asset like this in the prime of his career is an extremely rare opportunity.

Karlsson is also a terrific asset but he’s a year older and comes with some health concerns. I’m not as bullish on his longevity and I expect him to stay in San Jose. I would tell you for the last month that after a slow start, he has been playing at a Norris Trophy level.

 

[bobbop]

Because defensemen take the longest to develop they should be the first thing fixed. Because once you have a solid d-core, forwards can step in at 19 and start contributing.

The problem with this is that you get premium offensive talent in the first 10-15 picks of the draft. You can get players who develop into outstanding defensemen later in the draft. Go back and look at the conversations before the last draft. If there’s a premium talent like Seth Jones or Victor Hedman available, sure you consider it but many top defensemen (e.g. Subban, Keith, Letang, Josi, Byfuglien and many others) are picked in the late first or second round. Even later in some cases. You can develop a defenseman. You can’t teach the talents that a premium scorer needs to possess.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Wait, if we’re overpaying in years 5 and 6 how are we also not overpaying for years 7 and 8? It’s rosy enough to expect that the contract will be worthwhile for years 1-4.

Well obviously it would mean it might be an overpayment after year 6, I'm not nostradamus predicting he will go in a drought for the 5 and 6 years and regain it for year 7. But really I don't think he will be a problem in that regard given that the cap continues to rise. Also I dont think we can sign him to an 8 year deal.

 

[Profet]

The problem with this is that you get premium offensive talent in the first 10-15 picks of the draft. You can get players who develop into outstanding defensemen later in the draft. Go back and look at the conversations before the last draft. If there’s a premium talent like Seth Jones or Victor Hedman available, sure you consider it but many top defensemen (e.g. Subban, Keith, Letang, Jodi, Bufuglien and many others) are picked in the late first or second round. Even later in some cases. You can develop a defenseman. You can’t teach the talents that a premium scorer needs to possess.

Wait wait wait... I'm making no statement as to where in the draft to select defensemen. I'm a BPA person.

I'm saying that we have yet to solve our backend. So why would we sign a Panarin? We still need to have a few years of top 5 picks before we see what we have on our blue line and if we've hit on any of our top picks.

 

[UAGoalieGuy]

Wait wait wait... I'm making no statement as to where in the draft to select defensemen. I'm a BPA person.

I'm saying that we have yet to solve our backend. So why would we sign a Panarin? We still need to have a few years of top 5 picks before we see what we have on our blue line and if we've hit on any of our top picks.

The NHL D are a dumpster fire now, but they have 8 guys either who they drafted or traded for, and are at different stages of development. Of these D most have 2nd pairing upside with 1 (Miller) who has #1 D upside.

They have no one that is a sniper in the system. Its something this team had been lacking for a long time. A legit goal scoring threat. Nash had some flashes as did Jagr, but they havent had one for a prolonged period of time where said player was productive.

 

[SA16]

Actually I would likely forego BPA and almost exclusively draft forwards in the first round. I'm of the opinion that good forwards are more important than good defenseman and unless we are talking about someone like Dahlin BPA is not enough of an exact science to definitively state that the player ranked X and X+1 are significantly different

 

[Profet]

Actually I would likely forego BPA and almost exclusively draft forwards in the first round. I'm of the opinion that good forwards are more important than good defenseman and unless we are talking about someone like Dahlin BPA is not enough of an exact science to definitively state that the player ranked X and X+1 are significantly different

Peter Chiarelli... Is that you?

 

[SA16]

Peter Chiarelli... Is that you?

The Oilers get bashed for their drafting but if you look at their picks since 2010

2010. Hall - Best player in the draft
2011. RNH - Not the best player but a good player and the highest defenseman got drafted 9th (Larsson) and isn't particularly great
2012. Yakupov - A bust but none of the dmen drafted early are particularly good either (Ryan Murray 2nd/Reinhart 4th). Rielly/Lindholm/Dumba/Trouba a strong 5-6-7-9 but were guys taken that far back really an option at 1st?
2013. Nurse - a defenseman
2014. Draisaitl - Best player remaining taken in his range
2015 - McDavid
2016 - Puljujarvi - not looking good but this was the consensus pick and he was expected to go earlier.
2017/2018 - players not yet in the NHL

If you were to replace their pick with the next highest taken defenseman they would have got:
Gudbrandon, Larsson, Murray, (Nurse), Fleury, Hanifin, Juolevi

That would appear to be an unmitigated disaster.

 

[Profet]

Again... I still believe BPA... And then dealing from strength is how you rebuild.

 

[DaBadGuy7]

Colorado is going to have to make a big move imo, they aren’t looking like a playoff team right now. Gorton could really take advantage of a desperate Sakic if they continue to lose like this.

 

[Guyute]

We hear the same story right now, 6 weeks from the trade deadline, every season.

"There are more sellers than buyers and teams are unwilling to pay seller prices."

I'm certain front office personnel of teams in the playoffs mention this to sellers and the likes of Elliotte Friedman, Dreger, and McKenzie. Ultimately, these guys usually wind up paying the high price for a piece that could put them over the top for a shot at winning the Cup.

 

[Trxjw]

I think Colorado is a perfect fit for Hayes but I just have a feeling Sakic is going to use the Ottawa pick and Makar as an excuse to hold pat at the deadline. Almost laughable to waste the season that MacKinnon and Rantanen are having, but that's the reality of things there. They're a one line team and can't compete with the elite teams in the NHL night after night.

Dallas is the team I'm starting to keep an eye on.

 

[Zibanejbread]

Panarin with another GWG tonight. Two games in a row...