Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XX

[Tawnos]

Oh jeez, I was making a joke about how people have issues with simple math. C'mon!

Yes, I understand. I just wish the joke was better

 

[NYR Viper]

Yes, I understand. I just wish the joke was better

Touche

 

[duhmetreE]

While I do too, I don't think people have a good handle on that either.

Like, if I said this guy is an 8% player, how many people would have any sense of what that meant without looking it up?

It's going to get worse when the cap starts approaching $100M with the new team and TV deal. ( assuming it stays 50/50 in the new CBA )

X players is not worth Y amount because in 2012, this players was making Z amount of money

 

[NYR Viper]

It's going to get worse when the cap starts approaching $100M with the new team and TV deal. ( assuming it stays 50/50 in the new CBA )

X players is not worth Y amount because in 2012, this players was making Z amount of money

Yeah but the percentages of the cap calcs will be easier

 

[Greg02]

While I do too, I don't think people have a good handle on that either.

Like, if I said this guy is an 8% player, how many people would have any sense of what that meant without looking it up?

People might if we had been talking about percentages for the past 15 years, though.

 

[kovazub94]

If the Rangers were in the middle (a couple of years into) of the contention window, I would be probably a lot more keen on keeping Kreider even if it meant overpaying for a 50-point player at $6.5m AAS or more, and a big risk that the last couple of years the Ranger would be lucky to get $3.5m production out of him. But the Rangers are not even in that window yet, probably not for another couple of years, and Kreider is not a cornerstone (like Panarin) to build the team around. He's a pure physical force and these type of players tend to diminish with age ultra fast.

 

[Deleted member 23124]

He was playing this way last year as well.

Not on this level.

 

[Tawnos]

It's going to get worse when the cap starts approaching $100M with the new team and TV deal. ( assuming it stays 50/50 in the new CBA )

X players is not worth Y amount because in 2012, this players was making Z amount of money

Yeah, this is a progressive issue.

I wouldn't be so sure that the Seattle team is going to increase the cap by a significant amount. They'd have to pull in more revenue than the median current revenue. Seattle even moving the cap by $1m is going to be pretty tough. I seem to remember this: in order to raise the cap by $1m, the Seattle team would have to pull in about 25-30% more than the current average revenue.

 

[NYR Viper]

Back on topic, I am squarely in the camp of re-sign Ryan Strome for something reasonable. I think that when you have a pairing of players who obviously feed off each other and are comfortable you attempt to keep them together. If Strome would accept a 4 year deal for around $4.5m-$5m per season I think that would be a win for both sides. Strome gets some certainty for the foreseeable future playing with an elite player. He becomes a UFA again at 30 years old when he should be able to get another good contract as well. The Rangers lock up someone who obviously has found very good chemistry with their elite winger for a reasonable cap hit. He can play wing or center as needed so it provides some roster flexibility as well as being 26 years old so they are signing him for what should be his prime years.

Also, yes Panarin is inflating Strome's point totals but lets also understand that Panarin is on pace to absolutely obliterate his single season goal totals playing primarily with Strome in some fashion at 5v5. He's on pace for 46 goals whereas his career high in the past has been 31. The chemistry just seems to be there between the two guys and that's not that easy to find.

 

[SA16]

Eh, he's a not a five-tool player, but when you start to have a check list that includes big, fast, strong, good hands and with the ability to deflect, you're going to get some expectations with that.

Forget for a second we're talking about Kreider.

If we had a 20 year old kid in the system with those attributes, most people are probably setting reasonably high expectations. Now we can debate whether those expectations are too high, but I don't think you'd see a lot of people pegging him as a middle or bottom six support player either.

Well those tools are enough to make him a first line wing. They are not enough to make him an elite scorer as he does not exactly have great puck skills, vision, or shot.

 

[JimmyG89]

Switching to percentages will be as successful as the conversion attempt to metric measurements was. People will say we need to do it and then we'll never do anything about it.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

One aspect to signing Strome is whether or not the team sees Chytil as the long term solution for 2C. If he they do (and thus far this season he looks to be progressing as such), spending 5 million a year on Strome to be a 3C isn't wise use of cap space.

I have no idea what would be good value in a Strome trade though. I'm sure GMs are going to point to his production with Panarin and say "well he's a byproduct of playing with one of the best players in the league"

 

[True Blue]

Not on this level.

Yes, he has stepped it up even further this year. Is it a shocker? Someone playing better when developing chemistry with a super star. But a) not everyone can develop chemistry with such a player and b) again, are we going to simply dismiss that he is on pace for 55 assists for the year? Should there be a discount rate applied to assists because Panarin happens to be the one scoring them? I do not recall Buchnevich having such good chemistry with him.

For a bit of clarity, those assist totals would put him into the company of Draisaitl & Kessel. This year, he is currently one assist behind Marner. Does anyone discount who scores Marner's goals? Did anyone question who it was that was scoring for Adam Oates?

 

[The New Russian Five]

many others have many more will why this question continues to be asked when we see guys do it literally all the time is beyond me. Panarin god knows how much he left on the table. At least 10 mil by not signing in Columbus alone.

shattenkirk the last guy before him.

Trouba St. Louis Nash Gaborik JAGR Richards just to name more recent guys that pushed to come here.

the Rangers treat their players so well compared to some other franchises it is the standard in the league. Anyone that tells you otherwise has never talked to nhlers about it. There are certain places you get the chance to go you go. Unless you absolutely despise big city living and there are some that do but most don’t. Most guys want the prestige and the first class treatment. It’s not fantasy land made up by Rangers fans it’s the truth.

Trouba didn't take a discount, if anything we overpaid him. All those other guys you mentioned didn't exactly take pay cuts to play for the rangers. They chose the rangers when comparing very similar contract proposals from other teams.

Shatty and Panarin are valid points but even then...

Shatty wanted desperately to live his childhood dream of playing for the rangers. Panarin clearly didn't want to stay in Columbus, a city with an almost non-existent Russian population.

Kreider may want to play for the rangers, but if he can make $10 million more at a more desirable location chances are he's going to take that offer. Keep in mind, also that up to this point Kreider has not made a lot of money in his career. According to CapFriendly he has made about $25 mill over 9 seasons played. That is a little over 2.5 mill a year. Pretty low for a high end nhl player. Panarin by contrast has already surpassed him in total income in just his 5th year of playing. This isn't Crosby or McKinnon we are talking about who even though took team discounts are still making a ridiculous amount of money. Kreider has not had a high priced contract once yet.

 

[True Blue]

I have no idea what would be good value in a Strome trade though. I'm sure GMs are going to point to his production with Panarin and say "well he's a byproduct of playing with one of the best players in the league"

Who are Marner's linemates? Is he a byproduct of those players?

As was just pointed out, Panarin himself is on pace to demolish how own personal records while primarily playing with Strome at ES. For himself, he is in ratified air. Is it a coincidence that these two players are pushing each other to their greatest years in the NHL?

 

[duhmetreE]

Yeah, this is a progressive issue.

I wouldn't be so sure that the Seattle team is going to increase the cap by a significant amount. They'd have to pull in more revenue than the median current revenue. Seattle even moving the cap by $1m is going to be pretty tough. I seem to remember this: in order to raise the cap by $1m, the Seattle team would have to pull in about 25-30% more than the current average revenue.

Seattle is a sports town, in that it supports its teams. I'd think it'd be close to Las Vegas in initial revenue. Seattle could be primed for big sponsorship as well, considering the big corporations located there.

TV deal will most likely triple at or around $600M per season

 

[Edge]

Well those tools are enough to make him a first line wing. They are not enough to make him an elite scorer as he does not exactly have great puck skills, vision, or shot.

Exactly.

I will say that I'm not sure if many expected him to be elite --- maybe just a bit more than he is now. Ironically enough, from a production standpoint I don't think there's a huge gap in expectations vs. final product: really it comes down to a 25-30 goal/50-60 point reality, compared to a 30-35 goal/60-65 point hope.

I think where people get frustrated is the inconsistency across the board --- be it extreme differences in hot vs. cold streaks, not feeling like he does enough when the offense isn't coming, and probably the desire to see him exert his physical will a bit more consistently out there.

I think people take those frustrations, and kind of group the production with it, but there's probably a distinction there.

 

[effen]

It's funny how Zibs is loved but Strome is hated here. It might be the hair

It's because Zib passes the eye test with flying colors and Strome's eye test is really, really pedestrian. We all know he's running inferno hot.

 

[Bleed Ranger Blue]

He was playing this way last year as well.

Im all for nuance that goes beyond points regarding how a player is playing, but he has jumped from ~.5PPG last season to nearly a point per game this season. That is too stark to ignore.

I certainly don't mind Strome, but I also think you can attach a lot of halfway decent centers to him and they'll see their #'s boosted. That's why Im not married to paying Strome like he's doing this on his own.

 

[effen]

Unless Chytil becomes a vastly better playmaker (4 assists on the year, hello), it'd be malpractice not to resign Strome for a medium term deal for now, kind of regardless of price.

 

[Paulie Walnutz]

One aspect to signing Strome is whether or not the team sees Chytil as the long term solution for 2C. If he they do (and thus far this season he looks to be progressing as such), spending 5 million a year on Strome to be a 3C isn't wise use of cap space.

I have no idea what would be good value in a Strome trade though. I'm sure GMs are going to point to his production with Panarin and say "well he's a byproduct of playing with one of the best players in the league"

Who knows, maybe if and when Kreider is gone they replace him at wing with Chytil.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

Who are Marner's linemates? Is he a byproduct of those players?

As was just pointed out, Panarin himself is on pace to demolish how own personal records while primarily playing with Strome at ES. For himself, he is in ratified air. Is it a coincidence that these two players are pushing each other to their greatest years in the NHL?

You're really going to compare Strome to Mitch Marner? Give me a break

Panarin elevates those around him, and Strome is a byproduct of that to an extent

I don't know what percentage of Strome's points are directly influenced by Panarin but I have a hard time committing money to someone who needs to be attached at the hip to him to have success

And any good GM worth his salt is going to point out his production with Panarin to try and lower the value to acquire said player. This is negotiating 101

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

Unless Chytil becomes a vastly better playmaker (4 assists on the year, hello), it'd be malpractice not to resign Strome for a medium term deal for now, kind of regardless of price.

1-2 years I wouldn't have an issue with, it gives Chytil insulation in case he's not ready to play 2C minutes

Who knows, maybe if and when Kreider is gone they replace him at wing with Chytil.

Potentially yes

Although personally I think Chytil is a center going forward, not a wing. But the option is there

 

[NYR Viper]

Im all for nuance that goes beyond points regarding how a player is playing, but he has jumped from ~.5PPG last season to nearly a point per game this season. That is too stark to ignore.

I certainly don't mind Strome, but I also think you can attach a lot of halfway decent centers to him and they'll see their #'s boosted. That's why Im not married to paying Strome like he's doing this on his own.

What would you consider in terms of a contract if you were to re-sign Strome? Assuming he is somewhere in between .5ppg and ppg. It's a difficult question for sure

 

[NYR Viper]

You're really going to compare Strome to Mitch Marner? Give me a break

Panarin elevates those around him, and Strome is a byproduct of that to an extent

I don't know what percentage of Strome's points are directly influenced by Panarin but I have a hard time committing money to someone who needs to be attached at the hip to him to have success

And any good GM worth his salt is going to point out his production with Panarin to try and lower the value to acquire said player. This is negotiating 101

I agree they shouldn't break the bank and make Strome a $7m a year player, but considering he will most likely be playing with Panarin moving forward and considering they seem to both be benefiting from each other, if you can get him signed to a reasonable deal, perhaps the Rangers have found their version of what Kunitz was to Crosby in Strome to Panarin. If guys work well together I understand the need to negotiate but his age range, expected contract and versatility seem to point towards keeping him around. Again, if the contract is reasonable.