Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XVII What will Santa Gorton bring us?

[McRanger]

Right now, with both having "career" years, there's somewhere in the neighborhood of a projected 23 point difference --- 46 percent production over what Hayes is doing.

That's...not a small difference.

True, but keep in mind that is pretty much entirely from the PP; their even strength production has been about the same, with Hayes being on the ice for a pretty significant number of fewer goals against.

Which brings up the question again of how Hayes's lack of PP production (or maybe just playing consistently on a good first unit?) affects his value.

 

[Edge]

I'm aware of that. That difference is because of the PP, 5v5 Hayes has been the better scorer, not just this year but for most of their careers. And Mika being better on the PP isn't a small thing, it's another reason to keep him instead. Also, we are 28 games in, let's see where their career years stand in a few months.

I get that, but even outside of this season, I feel like there's a pretty decent gap there.

Hayes has averaged .57 ppg the last five years, or roughly a 19 goal/46 point pace.

Over that same stretch, Zibanejad has averaged 23 goals and 53 points. So that's a younger player, scoring 17 percent more goals, and 15 percent more points.

And while the power play is a factor, we also have to consider that Zibanejad saw significant drops after being hurt the last two seasons, and the production gap is growing as Hayes plays with better wingers and Zibanejad attempts to raise the game of some fourth liners this season. So it's not just the power play aspect.

I feel like a healthy Zibanejad, with the same wingers, is pretty far apart from Hayes in the same situation. This season isn't an outlier, so much as a manifestation of what happens when both guys are healthy and given some room to work.

 

[offdacrossbar]

zib has a history of injury. hayes has been pretty much bullet proof.

they are close in age

its a matter of preference and opinion as to who's more talented or has higher upside.

as for whats not opinion lets look at some numbers.

mika 25 yrs old 437 games played. 260 points. .59 PPG 113 goals. .25 GPG

hayes 26 yrs old 338 games played. 191 points .56 PPG 78 goals .23 GPG

very close. mika higher offensive upside with that right shot. KH better 2 way player and better defensively. problem is, the numbers show them to be virtually identical over their careers production wise.

i like both of them.

it comes down to do we keep both or move one of them.

my opinion is there isnt really alot of difference and both are quality 2C's. an argument can be made to move or keep either.

the rest is just preference.

 

[bobbop]

Getting fed up with Shatty, we should trade him at deadline. Skjei I think can rebound, his issues are upstairs.

So on D we trade McQuaid and Shatty, buy out Smith maybe

Next year
Skjei ADA
Staal Pionk
Claesson/Hajek/Smith or Vet FA if we buy out Smith

Sucks I know but Continue developing Miller, Lundkvist, Keane, Lindgren bring in Rykov for a look. Out of those 5 plus Skjei, ADA, Pionk, Hajek, and Claesson we should find 6-7 going forward in 2 years or so and be solid.

It’s a bit of a catch 22...Shattenkirk needs to play better to build his trade value. Not that different from Zuccarello demonstrating that he is healthy to do likewise.

 

[Kovalev27]

Mika is a much better player than Hayes and i don’t think it’s all that close. At his best Hayes is a 45 to 50 pt player.

 

[Dijock94]

At this point I’m leaning towards extending Hayes. We can get enough futures this deadline with Zuccarello and McQuaid, add maybe even Namestnikov. I think Hayes has earned an extension, and I believe he is young enough.

 

[True Blue]

it comes down to do we keep both or move one of them.

my opinion is there isnt really alot of difference and both are quality 2C's. an argument can be made to move or keep either.

the rest is just preference.

Think that it all depends on whether or not you believe that Hayes is a $6m player. Possibly $6.5

 

[Igor Shestyorkin]

Mika is a much better player than Hayes and i don’t think it’s all that close. At his best Hayes is a 45 to 50 pt player.

That's such a basic argument against Hayes, lol.

 

[DanielBrassard]

I get that, but even outside of this season, I feel like there's a pretty decent gap there.

Hayes has averaged .57 ppg the last five years, or roughly a 19 goal/46 point pace.

Over that same stretch, Zibanejad has averaged 23 goals and 53 points. So that's a younger player, scoring 17 percent more goals, and 15 percent more points.

And while the power play is a factor, we also have to consider that Zibanejad saw significant drops after being hurt the last two seasons, and the gap production gap is growing as Hayes plays with better wingers and Zibanejad attempts to raise the game of some fourth liners this season. So it's not just the power play aspect.

I feel like a healthy Zibanejad, with the same wingers, is pretty far apart from Hayes in the same situation. This season isn't an outlier, so much as a manifestation of what happens when both guys are healthy and given some room to work.

Top 5 most common linemates for Zibanejad: Fast: 179 mins Namestnikov: 141 mins Kreider: 139 Zucc: 108 Buch: 69 Most common linemates for Hayes: Kreider: 194 Chytil: 159 Vesey: 91 Spooner: 69 Zucc: 67

I think this narrative is a bit overplayed. And Hayes is still outproducing Zib. Not to mention, Hayes played with worse linemates the past 2 seasons and was on-par with Zib.

 

[Edge]

zib has a history of injury. hayes has been pretty much bullet proof.

they are close in age

its a matter of preference and opinion as to who's more talented or has higher upside.

as for whats not opinion lets look at some numbers.

mika 25 yrs old 437 games played. 260 points. .59 PPG 113 goals. .25 GPG

hayes 26 yrs old 338 games played. 191 points .56 PPG 78 goals .23 GPG

very close. mika higher offensive upside with that right shot. KH better 2 way player and better defensively. problem is, the numbers show them to be virtually identical over their careers production wise.

i like both of them.

it comes down to do we keep both or move one of them.

my opinion is there isnt really alot of difference and both are quality 2C's. an argument can be made to move or keep either.

the rest is just preference.

Keeping in mind, that the numbers you're including for Mika covers two years of him playing as an 18-20 year old, which drags his numbers down. That's why I went with the last five years, which paints a different picture, with overlap in the NHL, and a growing separation emerging.

It's kind of like the Andersson vs. the other prospects debate where there is a tendency to take Andersson's floor projections and compare them to other players ceilings.

But when we look at the time when both were in their 20s, and playing in the NHL at the same time, the difference between the two becomes significantly more pronounced.

While there is the argument that Hayes is playing better than his numbers, he's still actually on pace for the second lower goal total of his career and isn't on a 50 point pace.

Zibanejad on the other hand, has essentially picked up where he left off last season and continues to climb.

If anything, I'd argue the gap between the two players is much closer defensively than it is offensively.

Going beyond the numbers for a second, even the internal debate tends to differ. With Zibanejad we debate whether he is a first line center, or an elite second line center. With Hayes, we debate where he falls in the spectrum of second line centers. So I feel like there's at least half a tier of difference, maybe substantially more in those discussions.

 

[Calad]

I would trade Pionk in a heartbeat. The guy probably holds a lot of value.

I just don't see it with him. I think its a case of the flashy plays blinding us from the bonehead ones.

Also while being a smaller guy isn't really a huge problem, it is when you model your game off of guys who are bigger than you. Its pretty pathetic when Pionk tries to body guys in the D zone.

Agree 100%. As I have said before, he is this generations MDZ. Remains to be seen if he will improve as a defender or crash and burn like Mikey did, but he seems to have the right attitude about being a pro.

 

[Edge]

Top 5 most common linemates for Zibanejad: Fast: 179 mins Namestnikov: 141 mins Kreider: 139 Zucc: 108 Buch: 69 Most common linemates for Hayes: Kreider: 194 Chytil: 159 Vesey: 91 Spooner: 69 Zucc: 67

I think this narrative is a bit overplayed. And Hayes is still outproducing Zib. Not to mention, Hayes played with worse linemates the past 2 seasons and was on-par with Zib.

See, now I look at that and it only adds to how I feel. Because that gap between Fast at 179 minutes and Namestnikov at 141, compared to Hayes is also significant.

But I do wonder if it's lines like that last one that causes a bit of "push back" on Hayes around here. There's the growing sense that we're now over-stating Hayes.

 

[offdacrossbar]

Think that it all depends on whether or not you believe that Hayes is a $6m player. Possibly $6.5

if you asking me would i offer a deal to him for say 6/5 the answer is yes.

i am solidly in the keep hayes and mika both group.

if you can have both those guys for under 12 mil per thats good solid value.

the return for hayes better be solid. mid 1st rounder and an average prospect wont cut it. i dont trust our draft ability. at all.

if its hayes for a young cost controlled dman ready to play now, ill listen. other wise, hes too good and that deal is market value for a guy who trending up bigtime and can help us this year, next year and for the next 5 years.

keep kevin hayes and build around both of them as out top to pivots. add some scorers on the edge and fix the D.

first thing is move zucc and try to be creative and move shattenkirk and smith and mcquaid and names belesky if possible.

thats 23 mil in salary right there.

 

[Off Sides]

Rangers extending Hayes to like ~6M for 6Y with a no movement clause is just not something I can see turning out well.

 

[SA16]

Since Zibanejad became a Ranger Hayes has had a better 5v5 goal rate, assist rate, and point rate. To be fair about this though Hayes also has the highest on-ice shooting percentage of any Ranger forward since than and Zibanejad has the lowest. As far as linemates Zibanejad's have been much better. Since then Hayes most common are Grabner/Miller/Vesey while Zibanejads have been Kreider/Buchnevich/Zuccarello.

Zibanejad is far better on the powerplay.

 

[Off Sides]

I am also not so confident Zucc returns what seems to be the general consensus. Or that McQuaid returns much of anything beyond a 4th or something.

I guess I am just perceiving the market a little differently. And when I apply that perception to stuff teams usually seem to covet as rentals, I am just less confident in the returns for everyone except Hayes this deadline. If it comes down to it and Hayes is the only place where an additional 1st can come from, I'm not sure where that leaves everything.

 

[Avery16]

If Hayes does see time at wing, it might mean that Gorton is considering whether it makes sense to extend him. They will not extend him to play center. 4 reasons why:

Zibanejad
Chytil
Howden
Andersson

 

[True Blue]

first thing is move zucc and try to be creative and move shattenkirk and smith and mcquaid and names belesky if possible.

Far easier said than done. I believe Zucc gets moved for a first rounder. I do not see that much of a market for Shattenkirk & Smith.

 

[bleedblue94]

I know centers are traditionally more valuable than wings, but is hayes on the wing now to showcase he is versatile for a team that maybe needs center help now, but may need a wing once the team is healthy?

 

[Off Sides]

It's too early to really know how everything will shape up but the market will depend partially on who else is selling and what they have to sell, if many out of the Flyers, Devils, Panthers, Senators, Hurricanes, Islanders, Wings are sellers that is a lot of possible rentals on the market.

 

[BBKers]

I like Kevin Hayes as a 2C/3C guy that can play PP and PK. But I do not like the contract he is looking for. If he continues playing as well as he has, he should be worth more to the organization in a real rebuild as a valued trade chip. If we do not get any offers worth clamoring for, it gets more complicated for sure. Calgary and Winnipeg look like decent fits. Maybe Carolina too if “they are still in it”. Buffalo & Boston as 2 dark horses as well. Zucc to Dallas. McQuaid anywhere. Georgiev to a PO team needing a better backup.

 

[McRanger]

Far easier said than done. I believe Zucc gets moved for a first rounder. I do not see that much of a market for Shattenkirk & Smith.

Unless teams think last years injury has permanently affected his game, there would be a market for Shattenkirk. If we are willing to give him away the market would likely be rather large. Regardless of how this board feels about him, he only has 2 years left on his deal and its structured favorably. If he were a UFA this summer and only wanted 13m over 2 years, he would get a lot of interest.

Smith has done little to prove his re-signing was terrible, so who knows with him.

 

[BBKers]

Unless teams think last years injury has permanently affected his game, there would be a market for Shattenkirk. If we are willing to give him away the market would likely be rather large. Regardless of how this board feels about him, he only has 2 years left on his deal and its structured favorably. If he were a UFA this summer and only wanted 13m over 2 years, he would get a lot of interest.

Smith has done little to prove his re-signing was not terrible, so who knows with him.

Fixed it for you

 

[Igor Shestyorkin]

Far easier said than done. I believe Zucc gets moved for a first rounder. I do not see that much of a market for Shattenkirk & Smith.

Don't see why they'd try to move Shatty anyway. Zucc should garner a 1st. Especially when the NHL is just so mediocre right now, lol.

 

[Edge]

I like Kevin Hayes as a 2C/3C guy that can play PP and PK. But I do not like the contract he is looking for. If he continues playing as well as he has, he should be worth more to the organization in a real rebuild as a valued trade chip. If we do not get any offers worth clamoring for, it gets more complicated for sure. Calgary and Winnipeg look like decent fits. Maybe Carolina too if “they are still in it”. Buffalo & Boston as 2 dark horses as well. Zucc to Dallas. McQuaid anywhere. Georgiev to a PO team needing a better backup.

I have some level of concern about the expectation for the return on Hayes.

I think Gorton will likely get close to the max market value for him, but I'm not as sure about how it will be perceived on here.