Just for the sake of completeness, I also don't necessarily think that the right or wrong of the decision of signing Panarin will be decided by how Panarin plays late on this deal. If we don't get him if we suck more, get higher picks the coming years, our kids on the roster performs worse, and Gorton got a ton of cap-space to act with and can sign kids to better contracts and/or make trades.
If we on the other hand signs him, we get where we are right now.
Nobody can foresee exactly, or even broadly, how either scenario would/will play out. There is a significant risk with Panarin, OTOH its not extreme since worst case is an injury and LTIR.
With that said, I am hopeful that Panarin will play well throughout his contract. But not as well as he plays right now (not that I would rule out that he becomes the next MSL either).
The biggest "downside" is probably that we will get better a little faster, and not draft as well, but lol that can also be an "upside" since kinds tends to get depressed and become bad players if they play year in year out for a horrible team.