Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XVII - Want some, get some

[True Blue]

JD knows what that organization’s strength and weaknesses are. There is a match there.

Yes, but they know that he knows so clearly could not choose the wine in front of them.

 

[kovazub94]

Excuse me but how is that an example of talking out of both sides of my mouth? Especially when referencing my support of bringing in Trouba and Panarin when discussing Brassard OR Boyle. Not both. If anything that sounds like my thoughts are aligned with both concepts. They could have fit one of them no matter how impossible you want to make it sound. It could have been done and the group of forwards would have been better off for it.

You discuss the cap squeeze. But these guys signed for minimal money. There were indeed options to free up money, this was discussed endlessly. They could have sent Smith down freeing up some money. They certainly did not have to have Haley on this team. But even so lets revisit the facts. Namestnikov was traded on October 7th. Brian Boyle signed on October 20th. Seems to me like there was plenty of room under the cap to add Boyle at that point.

But hey lets look where we are right now. Rangers are 4 points out of a playoff spot with 2-3 games in hand on most of those teams ahead of them. One of the glaring issues holding them back is their forward depth, specifically the 4th line. Hey yea maybe we could have used the extra veteran forward for a multitude of positive reasons that would have cost next to nothing and could be trade piece at the deadline.

Love being challenged with inaccurate facts or valid points.

Again, where do you find cap space to sign either? This is the part of talking out of both sides. There was no money.

Secondly, the goal for this year was / is to see further developments from the prospects. There was absolutely no specific goal to make playoffs this season and, therefore, there was no need to "optimize" the roster for this run. And while teams absolutely can get themselves out of the competition for a playoff spot in the first half of the season, the intensity in the second part of the year picks up to the level where it is still VERY unlikely for the rebuilding team like the Rangers to ultimately make the playoffs. But to repeat, this is a secondary point to the lack of cap space to bring vets.

P.S. Oh yeah, I knew you will get off on Howden vs. Andersson. How's Lias doing in Hartford? What excuses would you put forth now? Should the Rangers also moved Panarin or Buchnevich (obviously I'm exaggerating) to Hartford so Lias would get a chance there to play with better partners?

 

[Edge]

When I think about roster building, I think about where players presently fit on a contending lineup. This is how I see it:

First Line (2): Zibanejad; Panarin.
Second Line (3): Strome; Buchnevich; Kreider.
Third Line (2): Kakko; Chytil.
Fourth Line (2): Fast; Lemieux.

First Pair (1): Trouba.
Second Pair (3): DeAngelo; Fox; Skjei
Third Pair (1): Lindgren.

Press Box (7): Haley; Howden; McKegg; Nieves; Hajek; Smith; Staal.

So I think, most critically, they need a top line forward and a top pair defenseman. In addition, they've got seven guys I wouldn't expect to see the ice in the playoffs other than in an emergency. I also don't get the calls to trade guys like Strome and Buchnevich--who are filling important roles on this team and are not the problem.

That's actually a fairly good starting point from which to view things.

Now, as we "project" out, and I use that word loosely because there's so many moving parts, I think Kakko will address the first line forward concern.

Chytil will eventually move to the second line, but Strome and Kreoder will likely be moved out.

I think Lemieux, will slide up to that third line spot.

So at forward, there's the possibility Kravtsov can work his way into that role, but there will probably be a gap there. I think that's why the feedback seems to indicate the Rangers are probably looking for something to hedge their bets there.

Ditto on the third line, which has some mysteries. Buch could very well play a skilled role there, with Lemieux on the left, but there's uncertainty about the center position --- is it Howden, is it Andersson, is it someone else?

Ditto for the fourth line, which could potentially see a guy like Barron step into a role, to go along with Fast.

IMO, the defense is probably going to take a little more time to figure. I think our best prospects there are still a few years out, and there's a cluster of guys who are really in more of that second/third pairing mold.

 

[JimmyG89]

When I think about roster building, I think about where players presently fit on a contending lineup. This is how I see it:

First Line (2): Zibanejad; Panarin.
Second Line (3): Strome; Buchnevich; Kreider.
Third Line (2): Kakko; Chytil.
Fourth Line (2): Fast; Lemieux.

First Pair (1): Trouba.
Second Pair (3): DeAngelo; Fox; Skjei
Third Pair (1): Lindgren.

Press Box (7): Haley; Howden; McKegg; Nieves; Hajek; Smith; Staal.

So I think, most critically, they need a top line forward and a top pair defenseman. In addition, they've got seven guys I wouldn't expect to see the ice in the playoffs other than in an emergency. I also don't get the calls to trade guys like Strome and Buchnevich--who are filling important roles on this team and are not the problem.

Fortunately, there is room for the 3rd liners and 2nd pair guys to grow, with the exception of Skjei. Lindgren too could become a 2nd pairing type if things break well.

We're in a solid spot when it comes to building a winner for next season. Growth from within and moving out the pieces that don't fit. Outside of Hajek and Howden, the press box group will be gone in about 18 months, allows our prospects time to develop AND we'll be looking at a huge amount of cap space available when Staal, Smith, and Lundqvist's deals expire (along with the dead cap hits from buyouts).

That cup contention window begins on 7/1/2021. We should have an abundance of ELCs at our disposal and cap to lock in players that should be here for a long time.

 

[Mac n Gs]

You are not going to be satisfied until we have the average age of a NCAA team.

RB's ideas aside, does Kreider really look like a player you'd give a long-term contract too this season? Yes, he's a veteran and one of the go-to players in interviews, but he's overall been an extreme disappointment on the ice this season. As much as I like Kreider, I don't want to invest more time and money into the player that I keep thinking he will become- he is what he is at this point. If we're being smart, we'd be looking to bank cap space to lock in our emerging younger core to long-term contracts at lower AAVs to maximize value. We need to be better about not sinking money into depreciating assets that we want gone after a year or two like we've done in Girardi, Smith, Staal, etc.

If you're worried about the veteran core, they're still going to have Hank and Staal around for the following season, plus an emerging leader in Zibanejad. Part of the challenge of rebuilding is pushing your younger players into assuming leadership roles, and I think they've done a fairly decent job at that recently under Quinn.

 

[SA16]

Just wait and sign Zack Kassian in the off-season. Hopefully he will be looking for a reasonable contract.

That assumes the Rangers don't bring in a big body or two at the deadline or off-season through other trades.

I'm still a fan of looking at Lawson Crouse as a piece in return for Kreider

I highly doubt someone who is going to come off a career year numbers wise due to playing with McDavid/Draisaitl is going to be available in the offseason for a reasonable contract.

 

[LORDE]

1. I don’t think they are signing him to a long term deal bc other teams don’t value their player highly enough. For example, no team thinks he’s worth price X so let’s resign him to 6 x 7 then give him some very limiting NTC. Personally I think they decided not to sign him long ago.

2. Hall is a former MVP candidate coming off an injury, and playing on an awful team. What does he have to do with CK? Teams will pine away for Hall as long as he looks up to sspeed.

3. Whether or not CK is on the team does not affect ticket sales. I don’t think that’s a major concern and if it was I don’t think CK is electric enough or makes this team so much better that he has any significant impact in that regard.

4. I’ll gladly take a first + for Kreider. Teams rarely trade high end prospects. This is supposedly a draft to rival 2003 and I’d like them to be well armed. To me, this is the last year the Rangers swing hard at the draft before they turn the corner to progressing. This not a “self fulfilling prophecy.” The Rangers will have had a markedly fast rebuild and still have some very good vets on this roster to help the transition. Zibanejad, Panarin, Trouba, Skjei, Henrik, to name a few. Teams like Edmonton and Buffalo never had that.

I can't like this post enough... especially the 4th point

 

[Edge]

RB's ideas aside, does Kreider really look like a player you'd give a long-term contract too this season? Yes, he's a veteran and one of the go-to players in interviews, but he's overall been an extreme disappointment on the ice this season. As much as I like Kreider, I don't want to invest more time and money into the player that I keep thinking he will become- he is what he is at this point. If we're being smart, we'd be looking to bank cap space to lock in our emerging younger core to long-term contracts at lower AAVs to maximize value. We need to be better about not sinking money into depreciating assets that we want gone after a year or two like we've done in Girardi, Smith, Staal, etc.

If you're worried about the veteran core, they're still going to have Hank and Staal around for the following season, plus an emerging leader in Zibanejad. Part of the challenge of rebuilding is pushing your younger players into assuming leadership roles, and I think they've done a fairly decent job at that recently under Quinn.

The challenge with Kreider, most likely is going to be the term.

While Kreider hasn't set the world on fire this season, he hasn't been a disaster either. Outside of the first 8 games, he's essentially been on the same pace as the last few years --- and that's without experiencing one of his patented hot streaks. So I don't share the concerns of some when it comes to his trade value, or his market value.

To the last point, his open-market value is going to be a tough fit for the Rangers. Not because it's impossible to make it work, but because I think they're going to use their money differently.

ADA is going to need a new contract. I think there's definitely a desire to explore depth pieces over the summer, and I'm not sure the Rangers particularly want to be locked into a contract with Kreider over the term he's almost certainly going to ask for, and receive. Even if Kreider is a bottom-third first line LW in the NHL, he's still a first line LW. As such, that comes with a price. I'm not sure I see the Rangers paying for a first line LW, even at a modest discount, to play him on the second line.

Likewise, and in a similar fashion to Hayes last season, I think Kreider knows he's going to have a market as an UFA. So I don't think he's going to put a huge discount on the table --- both in dollars or years. I think that's hopeful thinking, and I appreciate that sentiment, but it's highly unlikely.

 

[RGY]

Again, where do you find cap space to sign either? This is the part of talking out of both sides. There was no money.

Secondly, the goal for this year was / is to see further developments from the prospects. There was absolutely no specific goal to make playoffs this season and, therefore, there was no need to "optimize" the roster for this run. And while teams absolutely can get themselves out of the competition for a playoff spot in the first half of the season, the intensity in the second part of the year picks up to the level where it is still VERY unlikely for the rebuilding team like the Rangers to ultimately make the playoffs. But to repeat, this is a secondary point to the lack of cap space to bring vets.

P.S. Oh yeah, I knew you will get off on Howden vs. Andersson. How's Lias doing in Hartford? What excuses would you put forth now? Should the Rangers also moved Panarin or Buchnevich (obviously I'm exaggerating) to Hartford so Lias would get a chance there to play with better partners?

Literally just provided two examples of finding cap space.

But I also followed it up with a very easy to read sequence of events of Namestnikov being traded and Boyle signing two weeks later. I know, reading is hard.

Adding a veteran forward is not all about making the playoffs. It can be part of the equation but it is not the whole of it.

Yeah I guess responding and explaining what a bias is and isn’t to you is considered “going off”. The best you could respond with to that entire explanation is sound like a babbling idiot with sarcasm. Yep got it.

Thanks for the valuable contribution to this thread. (Obviously I am exaggerating)

 

[LokiDog]

I don’t see Lemieux as a fourth liner even now. You can put him on that third line group with Chytil and Kaako and that’s probably a pretty solid line. Kreider will be gone and I don’t see Strome as a long term top six option if we intend to compete in 2-3 years. Chytil and Kakko can slide up to the second line, Kakko probably to the first, but then we still need 2/3 of a third line (unless Howden or Andersson take steps to cement themselves there) and significant improvements to the fourth line. We also need to add a legitimate top four left handed Dman. Even if Miller comes through in 2 years and looks very good right away (long odds on him both panning out AND being ready to contribute big minutes immediately) if we want our window open 2-4 years from now we’re gonna need an impact LD.

 

[JimmyG89]

We should not have any kind of leadership issue. Zibanejad, Panarin, Trouba, Hank, Staal, and I believe Fast will be back on another short deal for a few seasons. That should not be the reason to keep Kreider.

The other guys will be pushed into more leader type rolls too as they get more comfortable.

 

[True Blue]

We also need to add a legitimate top four left handed Dman. Even if Miller comes through in 2 years and looks very good right away (long odds on him both panning out AND being ready to contribute big minutes immediately) if we want our window open 2-4 years from now we’re gonna need an impact LD.

I Lingren is showing that he can be a 2nd pairing LD defenseman. Which leaves the top pairing. Which means that Skjei is traded. Which is fine, but want to ensure that we are on the same page. There is going to be a major cost to bring that type of caliber of player in.

 

[RangersFan1994]

We should not have any kind of leadership issue. Zibanejad, Panarin, Trouba, Hank, Staal, and I believe Fast will be back on another short deal for a few seasons. That should not be the reason to keep Kreider.

The other guys will be pushed into more leader type rolls too as they get more comfortable.

I would not overpay for Fast. I can see a dumb GM be desperate for a 4th line PK player. I don't get why Rangers fans love Fast. most overrated player on the team

 

[kovazub94]

When I think about roster building, I think about where players presently fit on a contending lineup. This is how I see it:

First Line (2): Zibanejad; Panarin.
Second Line (3): Strome; Buchnevich; Kreider.
Third Line (2): Kakko; Chytil.
Fourth Line (2): Fast; Lemieux.

First Pair (1): Trouba.
Second Pair (3): DeAngelo; Fox; Skjei
Third Pair (1): Lindgren.

Press Box (7): Haley; Howden; McKegg; Nieves; Hajek; Smith; Staal.

So I think, most critically, they need a top line forward and a top pair defenseman. In addition, they've got seven guys I wouldn't expect to see the ice in the playoffs other than in an emergency. I also don't get the calls to trade guys like Strome and Buchnevich--who are filling important roles on this team and are not the problem.

You have a good premise but I think the missing component is not how they would currently be slotted on a contender but how they would be slotted with the projected development (edit - the point that @Edge is making above). With this I'd rearrange the list as following:

First Line (3): Panarin; Kakko; Chytil
Second Line (2): Zibanejad; Buchnevich;
Third Line (2): Strome; Lemieux; .
Fourth Line (2): Howden; Andersson

First Pair (1): Trouba.
Second Pair (3): DeAngelo; Fox; Skjei
Third Pair (3): Hajek; Lindgren; Rykov.

Then we look at what's in the pipeline:

Forwards: Kravtsov, Barron, Pajuniemi, Henriksson
Defense: Miller, Lundkvist, Reunanen, Jones, Robertson, Skinner etc

 

[Mac n Gs]

The challenge with Kreider, most likely is going to be the term.

While Kreider hasn't set the world on fire this season, he hasn't been a disaster either. Outside of the first 8 games, he's essentially been on the same pace as the last few years --- and that's without experiencing one of his patented hot streaks. So I don't share the concerns of some when it comes to his trade value, or his market value.

To the last point, his open-market value is going to be a tough fit for the Rangers. Not because it's impossible to make it work, but because I think they're going to use their money differently.

ADA is going to need a new contract. I think there's definitely a desire to explore depth pieces over the summer, and I'm not sure the Rangers particularly want to be locked into a contract with Kreider over the term he's almost certainly going to ask for, and receive. Even if Kreider is a bottom-third first line LW in the NHL, he's still a first line LW. As such, that comes with a price. I'm not sure I see the Rangers paying for a first line LW, even at a modest discount, to play him on the second line.

Likewise, and in a similar fashion to Hayes last season, I think Kreider knows he's going to have a market as an UFA. So I don't think he's going to put a huge discount on the table --- both in dollars or years. I think that's hopeful thinking, and I appreciate that sentiment, but it's highly unlikely.

I don't think he's been a disaster, but I do think he's been a very big disappointment this season when you look at his past body of work. He's usually one of the best play-driving wingers in the league, but his individual rates are down all across the board this season. It's a worrisome trend, and I don't want this team to get stuck entering a potentially bad deal that lasts 4+ years.

Like you said, he's going to have a market simply because of his prior body of work, a long history of playoff games with some extremely clutch goals, and the tantalizing size/speed combo that GMs fawn over. I'd normally want to keep him, but since we already have huge investments in Panarin/Trouba and looming investments in Chytil/Kakko/Mika (?), I can't see them appropriating ~7% of their cap space to Kreider.

 

[LokiDog]

I Lingren is showing that he can be a 2nd pairing LD defenseman. Which leaves the top pairing. Which means that Skjei is traded. Which is fine, but want to ensure that we are on the same page. There is going to be a major cost to bring that type of caliber of player in.

Yeah I think ultimately you’ll see something like Skjei + someone from the group of Buch/Anderson/Howden/Kravstov + someone from Hajek/Rykov/Keane/Robertson and even a pick in order to upgrade on Skjei. Maybe not that exact structure but eventually as things shakeout and we start to get clearer pictures of who is in the long term “new core” and who isn’t we’ll package some of the youth from surplus areas to address a position like a legitimate top 2 LHD. I think Lindgren can essentially replace Skjei on the middle pair as he is a great compliment to either Fox or ADA on the right.

 

[True Blue]

I would not overpay for Fast. I can see a dumb GM be desperate for a 4th line PK player. I don't get why Rangers fans love Fast. most overrated player on the team

If a NHL GM trades for him, he is dumb. That makes your view a genius? I can guarantee that teams that have serious aspirations would look at a player like Fast as a third line player at the TDL.

I don't get why Rangers fans love Fast. most overrated player on the team

Because he is an excellent third line player and a solid citizen. That said if he can bring back solid assets, he should be moved.

 

[kovazub94]

... I can't see them appropriating ~7% of their cap space to Kreider.

7%? What cap space you're working off?

 

[Mac n Gs]

7%? What cap space you're working off?

I'm approximating based on his current cap hit% of 6.34% and guessing that he'll see at least some form of a bump in pay going into his last big contract. I'm guessing he'll sign somewhere in the 6.5-8% cap hit range of whatever the cap is next season. If you're asking about what cap space we'll have to do this contract, I think they can easily figure out some cap room next year if they want to based on who's expiring this year and what potential buyouts are available this summer (Smith/Staal).

 

[Trxjw]

I think Newhook is off the table, but I'd be intrigued by someone like Jost and their 1st this year (which will probably be 24-31)

That's probably closer to what I'd expect, though maybe a little bit on the high side. Still I think it's more likely they'd offer the guy they've soured on as opposed to the player they just passed on Kreider for.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

Crazy to think about how soft this team would be overall if they hadn't been able to snag both WPG guys...



I think Newhook is off the table, but I'd be intrigued by someone like Jost and their 1st this year (which will probably be 24-31)

That seems like a lot, maybe one or the other

I doubt we’d get Jost AND a 1st

 

[Trxjw]

why does it have to be a rental ? denver isnt Winnipeg.

if the avs have a legit shot at winning a cup or 2 in this window, a guy like kreider might well entice them. hes the prototypical "one player away" guy for a team who believes they have a shot now.

even though we know the truth, he would appear to be the perfect "playoff add". fast, big and physical. net front presence for a team of skill finesse speed guys. perfect fit.

newhook doesnt help them right now. kreider in fact does. alot. kreider on that roster on a 2nd line makes them even more deep and dangerous. allows them to weather an injury as well which they've been effected by alot recently. his skill set on that roster with that kind of speed would be a matchup nightmare.

would he resign there ? sure why not. not a rental per say. thats a place be could sign his last deal and finish his career.

is there a team with more "upside" than the avs in the league right now ? add kreider and that upside is legit cup contender this year and the next few years.

the teams have some history. im thinking theres a deal there to be made.

just thinking out loud.

It doesn't have to be a rental, but I think it's the more likely scenario. Could they pull off a Stone-like trade with the Avs for Kreider? Of course, but I have a hard time seeing it.

Newhook doesn't need to help them now. At the earliest, Newhook needs to help them in 2.5 years when Kadri needs a new contract and the Avs need cheap talent on ELCs to fill in around their big guns.

But again, we know there was a deal being discussed around Kreider and the Avs pick at the draft. That deal fell apart when Newhook was still on the board. So what happened between now and then that would make them suddenly change their mind? They expected to be a good team this year, Newhook is having a very good debut with BC, and Kreider seems to be pouting more than he's scoring. I can't see anything there that makes me think the Avs would bite on that. Jost or Kaut? Sure, but I think Newhook is a pipe dream.

 

[RangersFan1994]

If a NHL GM trades for him, he is dumb. That makes your view a genius? I can guarantee that teams that have serious aspirations would look at a player like Fast as a third line player at the TDL.

Because he is an excellent third line player and a solid citizen. That said if he can bring back solid assets, he should be moved.

i meant overpay as UFA. no way I offer more than 2.5 per year for a 3 year deal at most for Fast already breaking down with maintenance days. if Fast wants 3 mil or more + goodbye. too much money for a depth PK forward that don't score much Fast is a 10 goal 30 pt guy. if someone wants to pay 3 or 4 mil for that, def not worth it. rather have a younger player take his spot on the roster as in getting his ice time, with being not the same type of player.

 

[kovazub94]

I'm approximating based on his current cap hit% of 6.34% and guessing that he'll see at least some form of a bump in pay going into his last big contract. I'm guessing he'll sign somewhere in the 6.5-8% cap hit range of whatever the cap is next season. If you're asking about what cap space we'll have to do this contract, I think they can easily figure out some cap room next year if they want to based on who's expiring this year and what potential buyouts are available this summer (Smith/Staal).

I was asking because the math I was doing in my head was much simpler: my AAV for Kreider is $7m so obviously to get to 7% the cap would need to be at $100m. You see where I saw a disconnect and wanted to reconcile because I figured you were also working with $7m or something close to it.

 

[duhmetreE]

We need Kakko or Chytil to go 100% in one-timer training, off the dot.