Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XVI

[kovazub94]

Hayes is an above average 2C in the Metropolitan. Worse than WSH/PIT. Better than the others with CAR close.

@jas put a quick list together a few pages back where Hayes is a 6th 2C in the East at best. So whether you call him above average 2C, good 2C, competent 2C etc, to me it still means that Zibanejad-Hayes duo could probably elevate the Rangers to be a consistent top-8 team in the NHL (i.e. expected 2nd round exit) but not a top-4 (which is my definition of a true contender).

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

With the Blues and Kings about to blow it up and other teams selling already I think it’s time Gorton starts trading our pieces before the market saturated. Supply and demand. Lets do this now

I’m not too worried, the Kings only have smaller parts to trade off because nobodies going to want all the giant contracts and garbage players they have and the Blues don’t have their first this year (unless it’s lottery protected) so if they do anything I think it’ll be more along the lines of a bigger 1 for 1 hockey trade to try to pull them out of the basement

 

[Matt4776]

Remember that the expectation around here seems to be that a 3OA is a franchise-level player... that is likely, at least a player who can put up multiple seasons in the top-10 in goals, top-10 in overall scoring, puts up 1st line offense combined with Selke defense, or a top-15 D.

Since 1999, 3OA:

Sedin (elite offensive player, HOFer; great at 3OA)
Gaborik (top goal-scorer; what you expect)
Svitov (bust)
Horton (average 1st line forward; disappointment)
Barker (bust)
Jack Johnson (2nd pairing D, at best; disappointment)
Toews (1st line forward, captain, Selke winner; what you expect)
Turris (2nd line C; disappointment)
Bogosian (2nd pairing D; disappointment)
Duchene (average 1st line forward; disappointment)
Gudbranson (2nd pairing D, if that; disappointment)
Huburdeau (average 1st line forward, at best; disappointment)
Galchenyuk (below average 1st line forward, disappointment, though he still has time to hit his stride)
Drouin (2nd line forward; disappointment so far.. pacing 65 points this season, which would make him an average 1st line forward... still time for him)
Draisaitl (1st line forward... can he be a top-10 kind of forward? Maybe)

Everyone after is still too young to make this kind of evaluation, though things don't look good for Strome.. 3 players in those 15 drafts have met the expectation with the jury still out on 3.

3OA isn't a great pick if you're looking for franchise-level players. You need to draft 1st liners too, so that's nothing against that. We'd be lucky to get them, but if we did draft 3OA what most 3OAs turn into, we're still going to need our later picks to turn into franchise-level players. That's the same situation we're in anyway.

Duchene is not a disappointment.

 

[Luger]

Oh and I guess guys like Tarasenko and Barzal are chop meat?

If you look at all the guys between 10OA and 30OA, yes combined they produce more stars. But you dont have a choice of a single 3OA vs 20 later first round picks. You get 1 pick. At 3OA, you have a 1 in 3 shot of getting a superstar. At 15 OA, you have a 1 in 3 shot of getting a second line, and about 1 in 20/25 chance to get a superstar. 1 in 20 in not negligible, but it isn't 1 in 3.

 

[offdacrossbar]

@jas put a quick list together a few pages back where Hayes is a 6th 2C in the East at best. So whether you call him above average 2C, good 2C, competent 2C etc, to me it still means that Zibanejad-Hayes duo could probably elevate the Rangers to be a consistent top-8 team in the NHL (i.e. expected 2nd round exit) but not a top-4 (which is my definition of a true contender).

if you have finishers or even 1 legit finisher, those 2 are very good pivots.

slugs like last 2 seasons rick nash and the like dont cut it.

you add a bonafide shooter like panarin to this team- everyone seems to believe this is where he would like to play, and this team looks pretty good on paper.

move on from shatty and smith with retention if nec. pionk and ADA ( 23 points total between them) have made kevin shattenkirk (8 points in 24 games !! ) irrelevant imo. smith is too expensive. thats 11 mil per of suck right there.

mcquaid and belesky are gone next year anyway. thats another 3 mil freed.

you go a top 9 like this and i go to war pretty confident.

mika with chytl and ck
hayes with panarin and buch
howden with vesey and strome
andersson
and maybe a kravtsov.

that might not be a "rebuild" but its sure a retool on the fly.

that top 10 right there has an average age of 23 years old without kravtsov.

 

[Irishguy42]

 

[kovazub94]

if you have finishers or even 1 legit finisher, those 2 are very good pivots.

slugs like last 2 seasons rick nash and the like dont cut it.

you add a bonafide shooter like panarin to this team- everyone seems to believe this is where he would like to play, and this team looks pretty good on paper.

move on from shatty and smith with retention if nec. pionk and ADA ( 23 points total between them) have made kevin shattenkirk (8 points in 24 games !! ) irrelevant imo. smith is too expensive. thats 11 mil per of suck right there.

mcquaid and belesky are gone next year anyway. thats another 3 mil freed.

you go a top 9 like this and i go to war pretty confident.

mika with chytl and ck
hayes with panarin and buch
howden with vesey and strome
andersson
and maybe a kravtsov.

that might not be a "rebuild" but its sure a retool on the fly.

that top 10 right there has an average age of 23 years old without kravtsov.

Again, I have nothing against Hayes and this forward group is good for next year and even a year after. But then the team will have to give new contracts and extensions to players in higher pecking order than Hayes and his $6+ m as a 3C will force Gorton into cap situations he'd prefer not to be in.

 

[SA16]

@jas put a quick list together a few pages back where Hayes is a 6th 2C in the East at best. So whether you call him above average 2C, good 2C, competent 2C etc, to me it still means that Zibanejad-Hayes duo could probably elevate the Rangers to be a consistent top-8 team in the NHL (i.e. expected 2nd round exit) but not a top-4 (which is my definition of a true contender).

I don't see the list but I am relatively confident he is

worse than:
Backstrom
Malkin

Better than:
Nelson
Zajac
Jenner
Patrick

Toss up:
Staal

If you add in the Atlantic I would say

Worse than:
Point
Trocheck
Matthews

Better than:
Nielsen
Mittelstadt
Danault
Random Sens 2C

Toss up:
Krejci

So basically I think he is better than all the 2C that are only 2C's because they happen to be behind Kuznetsov,Crosby,Stamkos,Barkov,Tavares.

 

[kovazub94]

I don't see the list but I am relatively confident he is

worse than:
Backstrom
Malkin
...
If you add in the Atlantic I would say

Worse than:
Point
Trocheck
Matthews
....
Toss up:
Krejci

So basically I think he is better than all the 2C that are only 2C's because they happen to be behind Kuznetsov,Crosby,Stamkos,Barkov,Tavares.

You got it.

 

[SA16]

I don't really see the problem with him being worse than those guys. They just happen to be on a team that have two elite centers.

 

[cheech70]

I don't see the list but I am relatively confident he is

worse than:
Backstrom
Malkin

Better than:
Nelson
Zajac
Jenner
Patrick

Toss up:
Staal

If you add in the Atlantic I would say

Worse than:
Point
Trocheck
Matthews

Better than:
Nielsen
Mittelstadt
Danault
Random Sens 2C

Toss up:
Krejci

So basically I think he is better than all the 2C that are only 2C's because they happen to be behind Kuznetsov,Crosby,Stamkos,Barkov,Tavares.

Reasonable assumptions....so can Howden be close to your Hayes ranking? If so dump Hayes and groom Howden to be Hayes at a better contract.

 

[SA16]

Reasonable assumptions....so can Howden be close to your Hayes ranking? If so dump Hayes and groom Howden to be Hayes at a better contract.

Howden is nowhere remotely close to Hayes.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Doesn’t Buffalo have three firsts this year? I wonder if they’d take Zucc for one of them + Oskaari Laaksonen. He’s a big, Finnish RHD that’s having a really solid year in Liiga

 

[Irishguy42]

Doesn’t Buffalo have three firsts this year? I wonder if they’d take Zucc for one of them + Oskaari Laaksonen. He’s a big, Finnish RHD that’s having a really solid year in Liiga

Sabres get the SJS 2019 1st if the Sharks make the playoffs, otherwise it goes to the Senators (becomes SJS 2020 1st if that's the case).

The STL 2019 1st is Top 10 protected. Becomes a STL 2020 1st in that case.

 

[NYR]

Hayes is an above average 2C in the Metropolitan. Worse than WSH/PIT. Better than the others with CAR close.

Hayes is absolutely NOT an above average 2C..

EDIT: Neither is Zibanejad

 

[Trxjw]

The problem I have with evaluating draft positions in isolation is it leaves out so many factors. Namely the strength of the draft class and the ability of the amateur scouting making the pick. Plus it doesn't account for the players taken after that position.

Since the #3 pick is being bandied about here, let's look at that in 2013. The 3rd overall pick was Jonathan Drouin. He was billed as an elite, potentially game-breaking talent but he hasn't yet panned out as hoped. So if you look at that pick in isolation, it's easy to say that the 3rd overall doesn't always pan out. However it doesn't account for what might have happened if Tampa had simply decided to go D instead of F. They end up with Seth Jones who was ranked ahead of Drouin on a lot of public lists and is of course an absolute stud. Suddenly it's a stronger case for the 3rd overall being a slot where elite talent is likely to be had. It all comes down to what the list looks like when the team is on the clock. Every team could have a different player ranked at #3 on their board in some years.

Nothing is a certainty, and there will certainly be misses, but the earlier you pick in the draft the better odds you have of finding highly talented players. Then of course you increase your odds as you fall deeper into the draft by acquiring more picks than the ones you're awarded by default.

I mentioned it in another thread, but this amateur scouting staff has shown that their lists don't necessarily align with the public lists and for the most part it's been paying dividends. There have been some major whiffs and the jury is still out on some guys, but there's something to be said about how well they're drafting and how committed they are to sticking to their list.

 

[Bleed Ranger Blue]

The problem I have with evaluating draft positions in isolation is it leaves out so many factors. Namely the strength of the draft class and the ability of the amateur scouting making the pick. Plus it doesn't account for the players taken after that position.

Since the #3 pick is being bandied about here, let's look at that in 2013. The 3rd overall pick was Jonathan Drouin. He was billed as an elite, potentially game-breaking talent but he hasn't yet panned out as hoped. So if you look at that pick in isolation, it's easy to say that the 3rd overall doesn't always pan out. However it doesn't account for what might have happened if Tampa had simply decided to go D instead of F. They end up with Seth Jones who was ranked ahead of Drouin on a lot of public lists and is of course an absolute stud. Suddenly it's a stronger case for the 3rd overall being a slot where elite talent is likely to be had. It all comes down to what the list looks like when the team is on the clock. Every team could have a different player ranked at #3 on their board in some years.

Nothing is a certainty, and there will certainly be misses, but the earlier you pick in the draft the better odds you have of finding highly talented players. Then of course you increase your odds as you fall deeper into the draft by acquiring more picks than the ones you're awarded by default.

I mentioned it in another thread, but this amateur scouting staff has shown that their lists don't necessarily align with the public lists and for the most part it's been paying dividends. There have been some major whiffs and the jury is still out on some guys, but there's something to be said about how well they're drafting and how committed they are to sticking to their list.

Well said. With the Rangers, I think the tanking for a top 3 pick ship has sailed - in hindsight, I dont think it was very realistic in the first place. Not with some of the vets still on the team, and not with Lundqvist in the net (and having a typical very good season). What is quite odd as a fan of the Rangers is the who "letter to the fans" business, which could've been interpreted as the team tearing it all town and starting from scratch at the time - when, in actuality, the Rangers are now operating like the majority of NHL teams who keep their young assets and draft picks.

 

[GAGLine]

Well said. With the Rangers, I think the tanking for a top 3 pick ship has sailed - in hindsight, I dont think it was very realistic in the first place. Not with some of the vets still on the team, and not with Lundqvist in the net (and having a typical very good season). What is quite odd as a fan of the Rangers is the who "letter to the fans" business, which could've been interpreted as the team tearing it all town and starting from scratch at the time - when, in actuality, the Rangers are now operating like the majority of NHL teams who keep their young assets and draft picks.

Maybe, maybe not. Any lottery pick gives us 3 shots at a top 3 pick. Obviously the odds are better the lower we finish, but we are likely to have a chance.

Roundtable: Reasons for Rangers' success, Penguins' woes

The Rangers have only held the lead 28% of the time and our schedule hasn't been that tough yet. We could very easily go through a losing streak that sees us out of the playoff picture.

 

[Fvital92]

That's dumb, Hayes is good on the PP and he's at worst good 2C.

He is a puck hog type of player that f***s the passing of your PP. BTW, Quinn is giving him consistent PP time and all he's managed is 2 pts in 25 games played, I wouldn't call that good by any measure.

 

[haohmaru]

Howden is nowhere remotely close* to Hayes.

* Yet

 

[SA16]

* Yet

Probably ever. He got off to a good start like Lindberg did. He has the 5th worst shot rate in the entire league (among forwards). That is not something that usually changes drastically. That is going to limit him from ever being a big goal scoring threat. He has one of the worst rel CF% of any Ranger forward.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

He is a puck hog type of player that ****s the passing of your PP. BTW, Quinn is giving him consistent PP time and all he's managed is 2 pts in 25 games played, I wouldn't call that good by any measure.

A puck hog player? Is this 3rd grade? He is a possession player and there are far and few players who can hold onto the puck as well as him. Most players look to dish the puck off as soon as it hits their stick.

 

[Fvital92]

A puck hog player? Is this 3rd grade? He is a possession player and there are far and few players who can hold onto the puck as well as him. Most players look to dish the puck off as soon as it hits their stick.

Yes, that is why he is good 5v5 and sucks on the PP. You have to pass fast on the PP to move the defense to get better looks. It's not rocket science.

 

[SA16]

It's pretty weird that Hayes sucks on the PP yet had the 2nd best pts/60 on the team on the PP last year

 

[Fvital92]

It's pretty weird that Hayes sucks on the PP yet had the 2nd best pts/60 on the team on the PP last year

And he played what, like 20 games on the pp with AV? Smaller sample than this year. Anyway he had glorious 8 ppp last season.
He is on pace for less than that with more minutes... Great PP player.