Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XVI

[Edge]

I think its fair to say that the Rangers, and the players who they ultimately ended up with, from those draft spots look like home runs so far it is still the minority of picks in that range that end up as true impact players at the NHL level.

I'm 100% on the trade Hayes bandwagon since I think the value of his return is greater than him extending at what I expect his salary cap number to be, but its still a risk this organization is taking.

Unfortunately, there's always an inherent risk when moving known NHL players for the prospects. There's really no way around that.

But I'm not really of the mindset that Hayes is irreplaceable. Yeah the assets we get back for Hayes might not pan out, but I don't think we're totally dependent on those assets working out either. In other words, we don't need one of those assets to come in and become a second line center. If the result of that trade ultimately results in the Rangers have a LW prospect and a defensive prospect, so be it. I think having Chytil, Andersson and Howden in the system takes at least some of the heartburn out of the risk.

 

[Winston2018]

If Hayes is not going to give a hometown discount or some reasonable NMC then trade him and in the offseason invite him back to the wine and dine and then discuss his terms to sign long term. We got the assets in the trade and then sign him to a market based contract.

 

[BBKers]

Trade Zucc, Hayes, Georgiev and McQuaid this year barring If the return is Actually helping the rebuild. The same goes for Kreider, Shatty and Names next year. Retain whatever need be. Smith and Staal are likely out of the question.

 

[I Eat Crow]

The question about whether to trade Hayes boils down to this for me:

Do I want him, at ages 27 to 33, taking up between 6 and 7 million dollars of cap space, when the Rangers have Zibanejad locked up for three more years after this one, have Howden, Andersson, and Chytil on ELC's for another two years, and the possibility of Kravtsov coming over and being used as a center?

Hayes is a career 40-50 point center than can match up against other teams' top lines. Is he really going to be more than what he is now?

I'd take a return of a 1st round pick and good winger or defense prospect and run with it.

 

[Fireonk]

Frankly, I don’t see it as more of a risk than moving McDonagh, especially since McDonagh filled a much more important role, and one that is much more difficult to fill. Moving Hayes carries much less risk.

Unfortunately, there's always an inherent risk when moving known NHL players for the prospects. There's really no way around that.

But I'm not really of the mindset that Hayes is irreplaceable. Yeah the assets we get back for Hayes might not pan out, but I don't think we're totally dependent on those assets working out either. In other words, we don't need one of those assets to come in and become a second line center. If the result of that trade ultimately results in the Rangers have a LW prospect and a defensive prospect, so be it. I think having Chytil, Andersson and Howden in the system takes at least some of the heartburn out of the risk.

I agree with both of you, just think its fair to point out that it probably isn't as cut and dry as some other decisions up to this point.

 

[Luger]

The question is, how much do you really need top-3 or -5 picks vs getting picks in the 6-15 range?

A top 3 pick is probably a first line, possibly a superstar. A #12 pick is probably a middle-6 forward, possibly a bust, and the least likely possibility is that he's a star. Do I want to get someone who has an 80% chance of being a career first line player in his prime or someone who has a 10% chance?

 

[Thirty One]

A top 3 pick is probably a first line, possibly a superstar. A #12 pick is probably a middle-6 forward, possibly a bust, and the least likely possibility is that he's a star. Do I want to get someone who has an 80% chance of being a career first line player in his prime or someone who has a 10% chance?

I don't think these figures are accurate.

 

[Tawnos]

A top 3 pick is probably a first line, possibly a superstar. A #12 pick is probably a middle-6 forward, possibly a bust, and the least likely possibility is that he's a star. Do I want to get someone who has an 80% chance of being a career first line player in his prime or someone who has a 10% chance?

3OA has the worst track record of developing top players among the top 3. It's historically a worse slot than any in the top-5 and several others in the 6-10 range. Not that this applies to any individual player, but it's worth noting.

We aren't talking about 1st liners. Nathan Horton was a 3OA and was a 1st liner. But was he what you're really hoping for with a top-3 pick? We're talking about franchise-level players.

 

[Luger]

I don't think these figures are accurate.

They are in the ballpark. The odds of hitting a first line collapse between #3 and just a few picks later. You can do it, but for every Tarasenko, there's multiple Jessimans and McIlraths. If you're picking top 3, you're very likely to score a first line player.

 

[RGY]

Trade Zucc, Hayes, Georgiev and McQuaid this year barring If the return is Actually helping the rebuild. The same goes for Kreider, Shatty and Names next year. Retain whatever need be. Smith and Staal are likely out of the question.

They are not trading Kreider. Georgiev I see no reason to trade at the moment. Goaltending depth is critical in the NHL, just ask the Flyers. I could see them moving Names and choosing to keep Strome longterm. I think at least one of Shatty/Staal/Smith is staying. Maybe 2. People are completely misguided if they are gona throw 6 young kids out there to be devoured.

 

[Levitate]

Trade Zucc, Hayes, Georgiev and McQuaid this year barring If the return is Actually helping the rebuild. The same goes for Kreider, Shatty and Names next year. Retain whatever need be. Smith and Staal are likely out of the question.

Not sure I'd trade Georgiev yet. Puts a lot of pressure on Shestyorkin to come over and step in immediately as the backup, plus there's always the possibility that Shesty doesn't sign.

 

[RGY]

Would rather call someone up than ice 7 defenseman. But also want nothing to do with Lettieri. Is Nieves back?

 

[ManUtdTobbe]

The only right decision AV made in his last few years with the Rangers. Hayes isn't good on the PP, and he isn't an average 3C, he is an amazing 3C and bellow average 2C in our division.

That's dumb, Hayes is good on the PP and he's at worst good 2C.

 

[Luger]

3OA has the worst track record of developing top players among the top 3. It's historically a worse slot than any in the top-5 and several others in the 6-10 range. Not that this applies to any individual player, but it's worth noting.

We aren't talking about 1st liners. Nathan Horton was a 3OA and was a 1st liner. But was he what you're really hoping for with a top-3 pick? We're talking about franchise-level players.

At #3, Horton is a disappointment because most are better. At #15, hes a home run because most are worse. Horton averaged 60 pts per 82 games over 7 seasons in his prime. If you get someone better than him, as you mostly would, it's huge: Toews, Draisaitl, Duchesne, Sedin, Gaborik, Scott Niedermayer are slam dunks, but even Drouin, Galchenyuk, Huberdeau, Bouwmeester, Jokinen are big time additions to the team. If these #3OA are a disappointment, I'm all for a disappointment.

 

[Matt Rentfree]

Would rather call someone up than ice 7 defenseman. But also want nothing to do with Lettieri. Is Nieves back?

I'd be interested in giving Beleskey a look - he was good in preseason.

 

[RGY]

At #3, Horton is a disappointment because most are better. At #15, hes a home run because most are worse. Horton averaged 60 pts per 82 games over 7 seasons in his prime. If you get someone better than him, as you mostly would, it's huge: Toews, Draisaitl, Duchesne, Sedin, Gaborik, Scott Niedermayer are slam dunks, but even Drouin, Galchenyuk, Huberdeau, Bouwmeester, Jokinen are big time additions to the team. If these #3OA are a disappointment, I'm all for a disappointment.

Okay but to his point look at who has been drafted in the middle round as well. There have been plenty of failed picks in the top 3-5 picks. There is no guarantee.

 

[SA16]

Hayes is an above average 2C in the Metropolitan. Worse than WSH/PIT. Better than the others with CAR close.

 

[Luger]

Okay but to his point look at who has been drafted in the middle round as well. There have been plenty of failed picks in the top 3-5 picks. There is no guarantee.

Since 1993, JT Miller is the second-best 15OA draftee. Karlsson is the only legit first line or pair #15. Shattenkirk is probably the best 14OA over the same time. Dustin Brown is the best 13OA. Except for Karlsson, not much in the way of top end talent like Toews, Draisaitl, Duchesne, Sedin, Gaborik, Scott Niedermayer when picking kids after barely missing the playoffs.

 

[RGY]

Since 1993, JT Miller is the second-best 15OA draftee. Karlsson is the only legit first line or pair #15. Shattenkirk is probably the best 14OA over the same time. Dustin Brown is the best 13OA. Except for Karlsson, not much in the way of top end talent like Toews, Draisaitl, Duchesne, Sedin, Gaborik, Scott Niedermayer when picking kids after barely missing the playoffs.

Oh and I guess guys like Tarasenko and Barzal are chop meat?

 

[LaffyTaffy]

Trade Zucc, Hayes, Georgiev and McQuaid this year barring If the return is Actually helping the rebuild. The same goes for Kreider, Shatty and Names next year. Retain whatever need be. Smith and Staal are likely out of the question.

In what sense do you mean out of the question, as in they are as good as gone or that they are going to play out their time with the Rangers no matter what?

 

[Tawnos]

At #3, Horton is a disappointment because most are better. At #15, hes a home run because most are worse. Horton averaged 60 pts per 82 games over 7 seasons in his prime. If you get someone better than him, as you mostly would, it's huge: Toews, Draisaitl, Duchesne, Sedin, Gaborik, Scott Niedermayer are slam dunks, but even Drouin, Galchenyuk, Huberdeau, Bouwmeester, Jokinen are big time additions to the team. If these #3OA are a disappointment, I'm all for a disappointment.

Remember that the expectation around here seems to be that a 3OA is a franchise-level player... that is likely, at least a player who can put up multiple seasons in the top-10 in goals, top-10 in overall scoring, puts up 1st line offense combined with Selke defense, or a top-15 D.

Since 1999, 3OA:

Sedin (elite offensive player, HOFer; great at 3OA)
Gaborik (top goal-scorer; what you expect)
Svitov (bust)
Horton (average 1st line forward; disappointment)
Barker (bust)
Jack Johnson (2nd pairing D, at best; disappointment)
Toews (1st line forward, captain, Selke winner; what you expect)
Turris (2nd line C; disappointment)
Bogosian (2nd pairing D; disappointment)
Duchene (average 1st line forward; disappointment)
Gudbranson (2nd pairing D, if that; disappointment)
Huburdeau (average 1st line forward, at best; disappointment)
Galchenyuk (below average 1st line forward, disappointment, though he still has time to hit his stride)
Drouin (2nd line forward; disappointment so far.. pacing 65 points this season, which would make him an average 1st line forward... still time for him)
Draisaitl (1st line forward... can he be a top-10 kind of forward? Maybe)

Everyone after is still too young to make this kind of evaluation, though things don't look good for Strome.. 3 players in those 15 drafts have met the expectation with the jury still out on 3.

3OA isn't a great pick if you're looking for franchise-level players. You need to draft 1st liners too, so that's nothing against that. We'd be lucky to get them, but if we did draft 3OA what most 3OAs turn into, we're still going to need our later picks to turn into franchise-level players. That's the same situation we're in anyway.

 

[LORDE]

Well I'd take 3rd overall this year and put my faith in our scouts.

If we take someone and they bust then so be it... I can blame someone like Clark and/or Gorts lol

I'd still like to give them a shot and see what they do with it... not to mention a few other bullets to fire into the 1st round.

 

[BBKers]

In what sense do you mean out of the question, as in they are as good as gone or that they are going to play out their time with the Rangers no matter what?

Staal has a NMC. He is very much in favor with The Dark Slather. I doubt They buy him out before the last season of his contract, If at all. I in addition seriously doubt he waives. Smith has No value right now with his contract. He could perhaps be dumped for a similar mediocre player in a year or so (likely with retainment) - if the Brass feels We have somebody to fill his spot moving fwd. Which We really don't right now. Almost though. Time and patience are our virtues atm.

 

[Tawnos]

Well I'd take 3rd overall this year and put my faith in our scouts.

If we take someone and they bust then so be it... I can blame someone like Clark and/or Gorts lol

I'd still like to give them a shot and see what they do with it... not to mention a few other bullets to fire into the 1st round.

Oh, me too. I'm just making the point that 3OA isn't that likely to get the kind of player we'd be expecting out of that pick. We still need the player that you're most likely to get out of 3OA, it just doesn't fundamentally change the luck we need to have to get a franchise player.

 

[Nopuckluck]

With the Blues and Kings about to blow it up and other teams selling already I think it’s time Gorton starts trading our pieces before the market saturated. Supply and demand. Lets do this now