Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XVI

[Ghost of jas]

I hear you, but there's the whole NMC angle to consider.

If we're looking at a scenario where it's straight salary, I think the whole concept of trading him down the line becomes a bit more viable. But I honestly don't see a scenario where Hayes doesn't have a pretty significant movement clause, to go along with a pretty high salary.

Someone is going to make good on the idea of him continuing to improve and probably pay at least a slight premium for that gamble. More than likely it will be a team that can live with him maintaining the status quo, but is willing to hedge their bets on him going further. Said team will likely be close to, entering, or looking to jump start their window by plugging him in behind a first line, core center.

The challenge with many of the scenarios in which we keep Hayes, is that they tend to view him in a vacuum. Signing Hayes will have ripple effects throughout the organization. It will impact how we play or utilize Chytil and Andersson, and it will impact who we can or can't potentially add after we most likely re-sign Kreider.

I think the wishful thinking is that we re-sign Hayes, Andersson and Chytil either prove themselves or don't, and then we deal from a position of incredible strength. Unfortunately, it would be very difficult, if not close to impossible to truly gauge Andersson and Chytil as centers with Zibanejad, Hayes and Howden entrenched or becoming entrenched on the roster.

Let's say we played them both on the wing. There are three likely outcomes - 1. They either prove they belong and at some point we have to gamble on moving one or both back to center. 2. They stick at wing. 3. One or both guys don't stick long-term (least likely scenario).

Let's assume that one of the first two scenarios transpires. Let's even assume that Chytil and Andersson both stick as wingers and look damn good doing so. I'm still not totally sure that Zibanejad-Hayes as a 1-2 punch is good enough. At best, I feel like it's on the cusp. And that's not taking into account the depth and additional chips we again by moving Hayes.

Let's also remember that in the above scenario both Zibanejad and Hayes would both have movement clauses at that point (because we can't forget Zibanejad's is about to kick in after this season). So it's not going to be nearly as easy to pivot if we decide to go a different direction. So it's not like we can just move Hayes or Zibanejad and then take the gamble to move Chytil and and Andersson to center.

So, again, we have to consider certain factors beyond just the annual salary.

The biggest issue with keeping Hayes is that, like you stated, I’m not convinced that a Zibanejad/Hayes 1-2 punch in the middle is good enough to make the Rangers anything more than also-rans for the Cup.

The other two issues I have regarding Hayes are 1) the machinations people are suggesting the Rangers go through to keep him, and 2) the idea that getting another late 1st isn’t worth moving Hayes for.

In regards to the first point, one of the benefits of being ‘more experienced ‘ (ahem) is that you learn that the simplest solution is often the best. If you’re keeping Hayes, how are you impacting the rest of your roster, especially in the cap era.

As for the second point, the Rangers have used ‘late’ 1st round picks on Chytil and Miller. Don’t tell me that Hayes is worth more to this franchise than either of those players going forward. The Rangers need more opportunities to acquire that kind of talent. If the price is Kevin Hayes, so be it.

 

[Lindberg Cheese]

We are playing well now but I think we are walking a fine line. We are not recovering from a bad couple of weeks. I still think this season will end with a sell-off and a pick around 8-12. But who knows...

...And in addition, I don't think there is any reason to have a sour taste if we do end up making the POs not getting that top pick. The core we are rebuilding this team around is here or in the system already. Unless this rebuild is supposed to be a 7-8 year thing. Kids we draft next summer and the year after that can realistically start to have a big impact around the mid/early 2020s. We are tanking and we are still better today than EDM and co have been the last decade and a half, the reason for that is the winning culture we have. I think the experience of a successful season and POs would be immense for Howden, Skjei, Lias, Chytil, Pionk, TDA, Geo, Buch, Vinny L and co. That is worth the difference between like picking 18-19 instead of 11-12 or whatever.

I think we have learnt this season that FOA is just not an option that you can opt to take if you want to. The road to that price is also very long and its not easy at all to get there.

Yeah I’d rather make the POs and give this young team some experience and pick 16 rather than sleep walking into pick 10.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Yeah I’d rather make the POs and give this young team some experience and pick 16 rather than sleep walking into pick 10.

I’ll sleep walk to 10.

They’re a 4-6 week injury to Kreider away from more or less locking themselves into a top 5 selection.

 

[Tawnos]

Oh for sure, but he spent like 3 seconds in carolina’s system.

He was still pretty highly touted when he was traded.

I get the OP’s point, but I don’t think it was presented honestly. Having those players who were selected in the top 5 were crucial to building their team.

Boston is the only team that really bucked that trend, but they had a bunch break right for them. A healthy Vancouver steamrolls that team.

Well sure. If we can somehow trade Shattenkirk for either Dubois, Heiskanen or Kotkaniemi, it would likely go a long way to helping our rebuild too.

 

[Mac n Gs]

I hear you, but there's the whole NMC angle to consider.

If we're looking at a scenario where it's straight salary, I think the whole concept of trading him down the line becomes a bit more viable. But I honestly don't see a scenario where Hayes doesn't have a pretty significant movement clause, to go along with a pretty high salary.

Someone is going to make good on the idea of him continuing to improve and probably pay at least a slight premium for that gamble. More than likely it will be a team that can live with him maintaining the status quo, but is willing to hedge their bets on him going further. Said team will likely be close to, entering, or looking to jump start their window by plugging him in behind a first line, core center.

The challenge with many of the scenarios in which we keep Hayes, is that they tend to view him in a vacuum. Signing Hayes will have ripple effects throughout the organization. It will impact how we play or utilize Chytil and Andersson, and it will impact who we can or can't potentially add after we most likely re-sign Kreider.

I think the wishful thinking is that we re-sign Hayes, Andersson and Chytil either prove themselves or don't, and then we deal from a position of incredible strength. Unfortunately, it would be very difficult, if not close to impossible to truly gauge Andersson and Chytil as centers with Zibanejad, Hayes and Howden entrenched or becoming entrenched on the roster.

Let's say we played them both on the wing. There are three likely outcomes - 1. They either prove they belong and at some point we have to gamble on moving one or both back to center. 2. They stick at wing. 3. One or both guys don't stick long-term (least likely scenario).

Let's assume that one of the first two scenarios transpires. Let's even assume that Chytil and Andersson both stick as wingers and look damn good doing so. I'm still not totally sure that Zibanejad-Hayes as a 1-2 punch is good enough. At best, I feel like it's on the cusp. And that's not taking into account the depth and additional chips we again by moving Hayes.

Let's also remember that in the above scenario both Zibanejad and Hayes would both have movement clauses at that point (because we can't forget Zibanejad's is about to kick in after this season). So it's not going to be nearly as easy to pivot if we decide to go a different direction. So it's not like we can just move Hayes or Zibanejad and then take the gamble to move Chytil and and Andersson to center.

So, again, we have to consider certain factors beyond just the annual salary.

You made this point yesterday, but we’re pretty screwed if one of the kids can’t surpass the current level of Kevin Hayes.

I’m still stuck on what we’d get for him or Kreider in a trade, and gun to my head, I choose to keep Kreids. What do you think we’d get for a rental Hayes vs. an extended Hayes?

Winnipeg has the most appealing assets, but I genuinely don’t understand how Chevy will manage that cap situation with Laine, Connor, Morrissey, Roslovic, and Trouba all having ELC/RFA deals end within the next two years. I wonder if we could eat Perreault and/or Kulikov’s deals to get a kid like Roslovic.

 

[Off Sides]

The losing culture thing, all the teams who drafted highly and went on to use those players to win a Cup or Cups had a losing culture in order to get those picks but where did that losing culture really come from?

Just because, whichever example one wants to use, seems to have a losing culture or has failed in rebuilding, between management, their market, their ownership current and recent history, if one looks at all those failed rebuilds, reads about when they had ownership changes, when they changed arenas, if or when the NHL was de-facto running them, if they had bankruptcies or if their ownership group was indicted for fraud, when they were in the process of being put up for sale, the cronyism involved in some of them, etc... There are more legitimate factors that lend themselves to why a losing culture was built more than they just tanked and could not turn it around.

 

[SA16]

You made this point yesterday, but we’re pretty screwed if one of the kids can’t surpass the current level of Kevin Hayes.

I’m still stuck on what we’d get for him or Kreider in a trade, and gun to my head, I choose to keep Kreids. What do you think we’d get for a rental Hayes vs. an extended Hayes?

Winnipeg has the most appealing assets, but I genuinely don’t understand how Chevy will manage that cap situation with Laine, Connor, Morrissey, Roslovic, and Trouba all having ELC/RFA deals end within the next two years. I wonder if we could eat Perreault and/or Kulikov’s deals to get a kid like Roslovic.

Kevin Hayes has put up a 2.04 pts/60 since last year (63rd in the league among forward with 500+ minutes) which is equivalent to Backstrom and Kopitar and better than Wheeler, Crosby,Johansen among guys who have played center of late. I would not consider it particularly troublesome if none of them become better than he is now. Obviously the other guys are better on the PP and have better raw numbers partially due to getting significantly more ice time (until this year). Hayes actually was great on the PP last year he just got extremely limited minutes (1:08/game).

 

[True Blue]

The real wild card is what the hell do we do with Kreider? The dude is a freak this season, still has term and a cheap cap hit, and would probably return a boatload in a trade. That’s the one that really makes me wonder which direction Gorton is heading.

There really is no thought process here. Krieder has turned into a legit top line player. One with size and skill. He has become a leader in the locker room. He is more than young enough to be here on the other side of the rebuild. When it's his time, he gets resigned to a nice contract that has him here for a long time.

 

[NYR Viper]

Kreider is an interesting case. What would people be willing to pay him? I made a post in regards to a comparison between Evander Kane and Kevin Hayes in the Hayes thread but he is another comparable to Kreider (although Kreider has had slightly more success over his career). Kane received a 7 year deal for $7m per season and he was 27 years old. Kreider will be 28 when he reaches UFA. If I was his agent, I'd be looking for 7 years @ $7m per season at a minimum.

 

[HFsNumber1Heel]

Sometimes it is better to keep a player than trading him just to do it, but this isn’t one of those situations. The Rangers still need to stockpile picks and prospects. I think this should be the last year they do, but it needs to happen.

At worst, Gorton should take the best offer he gets on deadline day. Same situation as Stepan. I think we got less than full value for him, but the deadline to trade him was draft day and the Coyotes made the best offer.

I'm very curious how Step does in the last two years of the deal. He's had slow starts but always ends around the 16-18 goal and 55 point range. It may be one of those where the first year it looks like the Rangers "lost" the deal, but the following few years they "won" the deal. BTW Raanta is hurt again. Very good goalie but he gets injured at very inopportune times.

 

[True Blue]

The bold just simply isn't true. Forwards the Rangers have drafted who have played at Hayes' level, or better, in a span from 2004-2011: Dubinsky, Callahan, Anisimov, Stepan, Kreider, and Miller. Yes, some of these players have different strengths and weaknesses than Hayes, but every single one of them is or was at least a 2nd liner.

Krieder aside, Miller and Anisimov have never played at the level that Hayes is playing right now. I am talking about his current level of play, not just point production. Go back to the last 20 years or so, and I do not think that they are that easy to locate. Dubinsky very solid. So too was Callahan. But a two way center?

Again, I fall into the the "trade 'em" camp. I just think it is not such a open and shut case. Nor do I think that he is being given enough credit as to how he is playing. Whether it has been by him taking it upon himself, Quinn getting through to him on a level that other coaches have not, or whatever. RIGHT NOW, this isn't a third line center. This is a second line center who can center any second line in the league. That's where his level of play has been.

 

[Mac n Gs]

There really is no thought process here. Krieder has turned into a legit top line player. One with size and skill. He has become a leader in the locker room. He is more than young enough to be here on the other side of the rebuild. When it's his time, he gets resigned to a nice contract that has him here for a long time.

FWIW, I agree with you. However, you really don’t think Gorton is weighing what he should do with Kreider, who will be due for a big pay raise? If we can get him for the JVR deal, sign me up yesterday.

 

[Tawnos]

I'm very curious how Step does in the last two years of the deal. He's had slow starts but always ends around the 16-18 goal and 55 point range. It may be one of those where the first year it looks like the Rangers "lost" the deal, but the following few years they "won" the deal. BTW Raanta is hurt again. Very good goalie but he gets injured at very inopportune times.

Well there are two components that for me are mutually exclusive. 1) Was it fair value at the time? 2) What happened with the players after the trade?

In my opinion, the answer to #1 is very clearly no.

 

[True Blue]

FWIW, I agree with you. However, you really don’t think Gorton is weighing what he should do with Kreider, who will be due for a big pay raise? If we can get him for the JVR deal, sign me up yesterday.

Obviously, I have no way of truly knowing. Like most everyone here, I am speculating by reading the tea leaves. I do believe that Gorton will weigh in. However, I believe that Krieder gets that big raise. I expect Zucc & Hayes to be traded. I would be surprised if Skej is. I would be floored if Zib or Krieder are moved.

 

[True Blue]

If Hayes is putting up 65 points this year *and* he is as defensively responsible as he has been, I would almost not want to trade a 65 point center unless we’re getting a top winger or a top pairing defenseman. My problem is that I don’t trust him enough to be on this roster for 5 consecutive years and also put up equal or better numbers year over year - he doesn’t strike me as a consistent enough player who could achieve that.

And there's the conundrum. If you believe that Hayes can take steps forward this year and again next and become a 65 point scoring two-way center, then the narrative changes. If you believe that he can sustain that level of play for let's say even the next 4 years, then the narrative has to change, IMO. If you do not, then the most fruitful thing to do is to trade him and bring in as many assets as possible.

 

[GAGLine]

The way RB Was talking, he said expiring NMC's so maybe they don't have to be protected?

If Seattle enters the league in the 2021-22 season, the expansion draft will occur in 2021. Hank, Shatty and Staal contracts all end in 2021. They will still be under contract and under NMC when the expansion draft occurs, but they will be expiring a few weeks later. We won't need to protect any of them.

 

[Tawnos]

Krieder aside, Miller and Anisimov have never played at the level that Hayes is playing right now. I am talking about his current level of play, not just point production. Go back to the last 20 years or so, and I do not think that they are that easy to locate. Dubinsky very solid. So too was Callahan. But a two way center?

Again, I fall into the the "trade 'em" camp. I just think it is not such a open and shut case. Nor do I think that he is being given enough credit as to how he is playing. Whether it has been by him taking it upon himself, Quinn getting through to him on a level that other coaches have not, or whatever. RIGHT NOW, this isn't a third line center. This is a second line center who can center any second line in the league. That's where his level of play has been.

Anisimov is just as good defensively as Hayes is and a legitimate 2nd line player. He’s in the same ballpark. Miller has produced in the upper 50s in points in the last two years, something that Hayes isn’t even clipping to do right now. He might not be as good all-around, but he is a better offensive player than Hayes. Different strengths and weaknesses, same tier of player.

I feel like, as well as I believe he’s playing, there’s some exaggeration of the level he’s playing at when looked at in the larger context.

 

[East Coast Bias]

If Seattle enters the league in the 2021-22 season, the expansion draft will occur in 2021. Hank, Shatty and Staal contracts all end in 2021. They will still be under contract and under NMC when the expansion draft occurs, but they will be expiring a few weeks later. We won't need to protect any of them.

I can't wait till this somehow gets screwed up in the expansion draft rules and teams are trading young players/picks with guys so someone else takes on their NMC and contract for 3 weeks.

 

[ManUtdTobbe]

Anisimov is just as good defensively as Hayes is and a legitimate 2nd line player. He’s in the same ballpark. Miller has produced in the upper 50s in points in the last two years, something that Hayes isn’t even clipping to do right now. He might not be as good all-around, but he is a better offensive player than Hayes. Different strengths and weaknesses, same tier of player.

I feel like, as well as I believe he’s playing, there’s some exaggeration of the level he’s playing at when looked at in the larger context.

Kevin Hayes is a much better player then Anisimov and Miller. He's on pace for over 55 Points as of today and he's good defensively. He's not scored 50+ earlier in his career because AV didn't use him on the PP, that's the only reason.

Edit: With top 6 usage and PP time he would have averaged over 50 Points in his NYR career, yet you talk of him like some average 3C, get a grip.

 

[Trxjw]

Kreider is an interesting case. What would people be willing to pay him? I made a post in regards to a comparison between Evander Kane and Kevin Hayes in the Hayes thread but he is another comparable to Kreider (although Kreider has had slightly more success over his career). Kane received a 7 year deal for $7m per season and he was 27 years old. Kreider will be 28 when he reaches UFA. If I was his agent, I'd be looking for 7 years @ $7m per season at a minimum.

He's pacing for 42 goals and 69 points this year. I don't think he'll sustain that but if he ends up with 30-35 goals that's huge. The key will be whether or not he can replicate it next season. If he's on that pace again and playing the kind of hockey he's playing now then I give him 7/7 all day long.

 

[Tawnos]

Kevin Hayes is a much better player then Anisimov and Miller. He's on pace for over 55 Points as of today and he's good defensively. He's not scored 50+ earlier in his career because AV didn't use him on the PP, that's the only reason.

Edit: With top 6 usage and PP time he would have averaged over 50 Points in his NYR career, yet you talk of him like some average 3C, get a grip.

I’m talking about him as if he’s a solid 2nd liner. What are you on about?

 

[GAGLine]

I can't wait till this somehow gets screwed up in the expansion draft rules and teams are trading young players/picks with guys so someone else takes on their NMC and contract for 3 weeks.

Well, that would totally screw us, so it seems a strange thing to hope for. Anyway, they've already said the rules would be the same as last time and we know from last time that expiring NMCs didn't have to be protected.

 

[LORDE]

We are playing well now but I think we are walking a fine line. We are not recovering from a bad couple of weeks. I still think this season will end with a sell-off and a pick around 8-12. But who knows...

...And in addition, I don't think there is any reason to have a sour taste if we do end up making the POs not getting that top pick. The core we are rebuilding this team around is here or in the system already. Unless this rebuild is supposed to be a 7-8 year thing. Kids we draft next summer and the year after that can realistically start to have a big impact around the mid/early 2020s. We are tanking and we are still better today than EDM and co have been the last decade and a half, the reason for that is the winning culture we have. I think the experience of a successful season and POs would be immense for Howden, Skjei, Lias, Chytil, Pionk, TDA, Geo, Buch, Vinny L and co. That is worth the difference between like picking 18-19 instead of 11-12 or whatever.

I think we have learnt this season that FOA is just not an option that you can opt to take if you want to. The road to that price is also very long and its not easy at all to get there.

Yeah the reason we are better than EDM is a winning culture who wears #30

 

[Ghost of jas]

Krieder aside, Miller and Anisimov have never played at the level that Hayes is playing right now. I am talking about his current level of play, not just point production. Go back to the last 20 years or so, and I do not think that they are that easy to locate. Dubinsky very solid. So too was Callahan. But a two way center?

Again, I fall into the the "trade 'em" camp. I just think it is not such a open and shut case. Nor do I think that he is being given enough credit as to how he is playing. Whether it has been by him taking it upon himself, Quinn getting through to him on a level that other coaches have not, or whatever. RIGHT NOW, this isn't a third line center. This is a second line center who can center any second line in the league. That's where his level of play has been.

He’s at best the 6th best 2C in the conference, depending upon how you view Krejci and what happens to Trocheck going forward. His production is not irreplaceable.

 

[NYR Viper]

He's pacing for 42 goals and 69 points this year. I don't think he'll sustain that but if he ends up with 30-35 goals that's huge. The key will be whether or not he can replicate it next season. If he's on that pace again and playing the kind of hockey he's playing now then I give him 7/7 all day long.

Would the Rangers wait that long re-sign him? As he gets closer to UFA, he can change his mind. Let's assume they want to make a decision on him this off-season