A few thoughts:
1. Unbelievable, what is this. We are lucky and privileged? Don't recognize myself looking in the mirror in the morning.
2. Who is Alexis Lafrenier?
In this league no prospect is the same and part of that phenomena is that the league itself isn't the same from year to year, not to mention decade to decade or 5 year period to 5 year period. I.e., even if three identical kids enter the league with a period of 5 years between them, say 2010, 2015 and 2020 -- the outcome will differ because the league has changed so much over that time. My point is this, we can't look at someone like AL and say that he is like Stamkos or Nugent-Hopkins or Mackinnon or Kane or Yakupov and so forth.
With that said, I would like to summarize his abilities this way:
(a) Lafrenier got exceptional hockey sense. This is what sets him apart. He sees the ice tremendously well. On levels of guys like Nik Bäckström. There are players that are tremendously smart and really can mesh with others like them and create magic, but Laf takes it one step further and can be the type who you just hand the puck to and he will create at the same level by himself. Keep the stick on the ice with him on your line and you will score.
(b) The kid is strong on his skates, has fantastic balance, he is really agile and his physical presence shouldn't be underrated. His hockey sense lays the groundwork for everything, but he can utilize his balance and agility to make plays that aren't there too thanks to it.
(c) His shot and nose for the net shouldn't be underrated. And it comes together hand in hand with his competitiveness. His mental readiness is totally grade A even for a No 1 pick.
What he doesn't have is that motor of Crosby and McDavid. This puts him in the category of being very good, but maybe not generational. Its also relevant to put this in relation to Stutzle who I love every aspect of, but I still think Laf legitimately has a clear edge of him. Stutzle is a center, he got that center speed that is almost impossible to get. Why is it a given to pick Laf ahead of him? It's because Laf's hockey sense and competitiveness is truly top notch. You hope to get a kid that regularly will be able to solve Ds, that will be a difference maker when it matters the most. That will set a perfect example for his teammates and lead the way.
3. What can be expected of Alexis Lafrenier from Day 1? Look, lets make this clear, its not a cliche or safeguarding. Very little should be expected of him from Day 1. Like sure, yeah he can step in and play from Day 1. But he -- like every other top guy in this league right now basically -- can't make their own fortune. If we put him in a very good position on a PP and otherwise in an environment that is high dynamic, pts will come. But they would for others too. If we don't, production will be more sparse, but it would be even for the top guys in the same environment. If any stars really are aligning for us going forward, it is that we got a log-jam at LW. It is that we are not putting Laf in a position like NJD put Hughes in. Laf will play and will perform from time to time, but it will be in when we think its favorable. Kakko, Ziba, Panarin and co will take a lot of pressure of him.
With that said, Laf will play in the top 9 in the NHL next season no doubt. I think many have recognized the last years how this is a really difficult league right now for kids to perform in and also the need to be patient with kids. I think we really walked a fine line with Kakko last season, maybe he should have been given another year in Finland. These kids are put in an "unfair" position. With Stutzle I think its far from a given that he should be in the NHL Y1. Byfield. Look at Nolan Patrick. Look at Laine's up and downs, yes he started on an up, but imagine the pressure if he started on a down instead?
4. Getting this pick shouldn't change much in terms of looking at depth charts several years down the road or bringing out some kind of blueprint for how to build a dynasty or whatever. I think it's essential to underline that. For a long time that blueprint has existed, but with the cap, with how the game has developed, does it anymore? No it doesn't. Not even remotely. We all know how it looked. Copy and paste how Colorado, Detroit, Pittsburgh and co were built. Two supergood top centers. Talent on the wings. A top D or two. Thing is -- you could be the organization closest to filling those requirements in the league and not win a series in the POs for a decade. How will we play? How will the potential "dynasty" look? What will be its USP? In this context, forget the blueprint. To some extent I am fairly certain that the best way to go forward is to be as hands off as possible and let the guys on the ice figure this out.
With that said, a few things are crystallizing itself in this context and I think it is important to nurture that. One of those things are puck management. I would definitely rather see a team hold on to the puck too much the coming years and hence create an ability to play 'keep away' that later on can be calibrated.
5. If any strategic change should be made, I am more and more leaning towards that Filip Chytil should be replaced. I think a flaw we got is that we don't have that speed at center. We do have a very big forward squad. I could definitely be wrong, but from my perspective right now, I don't really see Chytil plus any of the candidates playing with him creating a 1 + 1 = 3 environment. At the same time -- finding a center that does, is probably really hard. I've talked about Max Domi before. He could potentially be available in Montreal. I wonder how far away someone like Nic Petan really is and what he could do if really given a shot. I wonder what a kid like Carl Järnkrok in a new environment (darn the years fly by, he is already 28 so maybe not...). I would definitely do my DD on Antony Cirelli if Tampa feels that they must do something.