Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XLV

[RGY]

I just want Pionk out of here.

Smith, I mean I do like Smith, but need to move on. Retain money and see if you can send him somewhere.

If you add Trouba, how does the defense shake out.

Skjei-Trouba
Staal-ADA
Hajek-Shattenkirk
Fox

Fox, Rykov, Lindgren, and even Hajek all have to earn the right to be considered for spots. But they are being blocked by the likes of Shattenkirk abd Staal.

 

[NYR Viper]

I just want Pionk out of here.

Smith, I mean I do like Smith, but need to move on. Retain money and see if you can send him somewhere.

If you add Trouba, how does the defense shake out.

Skjei-Trouba
Staal-ADA
Hajek-Shattenkirk
Fox

Fox, Rykov, Lindgren, and even Hajek all have to earn the right to be considered for spots. But they are being blocked by the likes of Shattenkirk abd Staal.

I could see Toronto being interested in a guy like Pionk. Smith also has history with Babcock, would they take him at half his cap hit? They are going to need serious help on their defense if they move Zaitsev and lose Gardner. Dermott is our until at least November with shoulder surgery. That leaves them Rielly and Muzzin.

 

[Ola]

I could see Toronto being interested in a guy like Pionk. Smith also has history with Babcock, would they take him at half his cap hit? They are going to need serious help on their defense if they move Zaitsev and lose Gardner. Dermott is our until at least November with shoulder surgery. That leaves them Rielly and Muzzin.

1. Pionk and Smith @50% for Kadri.

Kadri and Lundkvist to Philly for 11th overall.

There will be a really good forward available at 11.

2. Kreider to Arizona for 13th and 2020 2nd that becomes a 1st in 2020 if he resigns there and they make the POs in 19/20.

3. Draft:

2 - Kakko
11 - Newhook
13- Seider
20 - Tyler Rees
49 - Bjornfot
58 - Karl Henriksson

 

[RGY]

1. Pionk and Smith @50% for Kadri.

Kadri and Lundkvist to Philly for 11th overall.

There will be a really good forward available at 11.

2. Kreider to Arizona for 13th and 2020 2nd that becomes a 1st in 2020 if he resigns there and they make the POs in 19/20.

3. Draft:

2 - Kakko
11 - Newhook
13- Seider
20 - Tyler Rees
49 - Bjornfot
58 - Karl Henriksson

Doubt we make a move with Philly.

I also doubt we move Lundkvist given his position. He looked good in his D+1 year.

 

[Calad]

1. Pionk and Smith @50% for Kadri.

Kadri and Lundkvist to Philly for 11th overall.

There will be a really good forward available at 11.

2. Kreider to Arizona for 13th and 2020 2nd that becomes a 1st in 2020 if he resigns there and they make the POs in 19/20.

3. Draft:

2 - Kakko
11 - Newhook
13- Seider
20 - Tyler Rees
49 - Bjornfot
58 - Karl Henriksson

No way the Leafs would ever do that. They would more easily move Kadri, who has a great contract, for a D like Erik Johnson or Colorados 1st(16), before they'd go after 2 lesser assets. Not only that, but Brendan Smith has bad history with Babcock.

 

[Off Sides]

I mean I think you can clear 2 of the 3.

Smith can be waived or bought out so no issue there. Shatty @50% may be a movable contract.

Staal can simply just not play. I know thats easier said than done, but its the right move at this point. The only way it makes sense for him to play is if you move Skjei and you need someone to soak those minutes because the younger guys can't handle them yet. He's a horrible player who shouldn't get in the way of a better player, but if this became the case, you don't have to worry about ruining him since he's already what he is.

Pionk should GTFO too, but we'll see if management agrees.

Wouldn't they have made that Shattenkirk trade last deadline if it were available?

And if he can be moved, wouldn't that be more opening up a spot/role for either DeAngelo or Fox, or both?

It kind of to me, is the whole point, if they are doing buyouts and making trades where they may have to take back bad, that is all stuff a team who is a little more advanced should probably be looking at, not so much one who's best likely outcome, planned or not, is to finish in lottery position again next draft.

So if they are going to start down that road, they may as well just go big time for it. The middle sucks.

 

[pld459666]

I think we need to get through this draft and 2020 draft before we even CONSIDER moving assets for 1 player.

 

[bobbop]

No way the Leafs would ever do that. They would more easily move Kadri, who has a great contract, for a D like Erik Johnson or Colorados 1st(16), before they'd go after 2 lesser assets. Not only that, but Brendan Smith has bad history with Babcock.

Actually Brendan Smith has a very good history with Babcock and the Leafs tried to sign him two years ago. They are not going to trade Kadri for him but Toronto is probably the only place that might trade for him and if the Rangers do buy him oi\\uut, I wouldn't be surprised if he lands there on a one year prove it contract.

 

[Tawnos]

What are you advocating? Honest question, I see support for Trouba and support for letting kids play, and I see the line of thinking that good player shelter the youth.

The immediate problem is we have Staal, Shattenkirk, Smith, Pionk, ADA, and Fox so far. Add in Trouba and I don't see the problem of the kids being thrown to the wolves because they aren't really getting minutes.

Obviously we shed some guys but it's easier said than done. There are 3 big ticket items stuck here for 2 years unless we get creative. I feel like it is glossed over since Trouba became a topic but it's a critical element.

And if the answer is to roll with that specific 7, good luck winning games. Good luck dressing Hajek and friends. Not an ideal way to utilize that 25 y/o RD.

Mostly I’m advocating not shutting off considering things based on ideologies.

That being said, I think we’re likely buying Smith out and I think Shattenkirk is ripe to be Roszival’d. That is: overtaken by a young player and shipped out for less than full value in exchange for a young-ish reclamation project. With vets who are clearly the least good option at their position, you just gotta skip to the end of the conversation and get what you can.

I don’t think Staal is going anywhere.

 

[Tawnos]

It is basically impossible to disprove people's claims that the best case scenario will happen because 1) no proof is required to claim that UFAs will be amazing and draftees will hit their ceiling, and do so as teenagers; 2) nothing said to put doubt in that is allowed to be considered because we don't have a time machine and therefore any uncertainty that something bad can happen means it won't happen.

That a single pick in 2011 has nothing to do with 2019, but a trend shows you the approximate odds. But knowing reality interferes with rose-colored glasses.

Again, this isn’t an argument people are making. Most people will acknowledge that things aren’t guaranteed to work out. The fact that you think they won’t is just another example of you misunderstanding the opposing opinions to your own.

 

[egelband]

IMHO, he’d be a great fit for the Rangers. As @eco's bones mentioned in numerous posts Trouba is the type of RD the Rangers don’t have neither on the team nor among the prospects. Not playing on PP? But the Rangers already do have 2 right handed Ds, not even counting Shattenkirk. However he’d be minute eater at 5x5 vs other team’s top line and first PK unit.

I’ve been in pro camp in Panarin discussion (with conditions), but to me Trouba is much more of a priority and if there was a restriction that only one could to - I’d go with the defenseman.

I agree that both Trouba and Panrin would be great gets. But I think the timing isn't quite right to start making those big commitments. Now, if the price/s is/are low, sure. And I would want JG to make team-friendly offers. Maybe one of them wants to get in on the ground floor of something great. Offer Panarin something like what Henrik got. Find out if Trouba wants to re-up at a reasonable number and see how tough it would be to acquire. But if neither of those costs are inine with the rangers ideals, the beauty part of the Rangers situation is JG can just walk away. No need to rush or be forced into anything. Keeping options open is the key. I think the Rangers get that, too.

 

[Tawnos]

I agree that both Trouba and Panrin would be great gets. But I think the timing isn't quite right to start making those big commitments. Now, if the price/s is/are low, sure. And I would want JG to make team-friendly offers. Maybe one of them wants to get in on the ground floor of something great. Offer Panarin something like what Henrik got. Find out if Trouba wants to re-up at a reasonable number and see how tough it would be to acquire. But if neither of those costs are inine with the rangers ideals, the beauty part of the Rangers situation is JG can just walk away. No need to rush or be forced into anything. Keeping options open is the key. I think the Rangers get that, too.

Yes, exactly. I want the team to pursue these things, but I don’t want it to be at any cost. Though I don’t need it to be low cost. Fair cost is good enough for me.

Btw. A Henrik deal (assuming you mean Lundqvist) is about $11m on today’s cap. Which I’m fine with.

 

[DutchShamrock]

I mean I think you can clear 2 of the 3.

Smith can be waived or bought out so no issue there. Shatty @50% may be a movable contract.

Staal can simply just not play. I know thats easier said than done, but its the right move at this point. The only way it makes sense for him to play is if you move Skjei and you need someone to soak those minutes because the younger guys can't handle them yet. He's a horrible player who shouldn't get in the way of a better player, but if this became the case, you don't have to worry about ruining him since he's already what he is.

Pionk should GTFO too, but we'll see if management agrees.

No offense, but this is the thinking I'm alluding to. It's easy moves, flick of the wrist, off to Hartford. But Smith and Shattenkirk cost us between $5m and $9m to not play. I'm not so sure that just happens. And these are not decisions are taken lightly.

What are the odds that both guys leave the team through waive or retained trade? We can be cavalier about roster moves on here, but let's be realistic. If trouba is acquired, Shattenkirk, Staal and Skjei are probably here. ADA is odd man out on the PP and getting scratched periodically. And one rookie cracks the d corps.

This won't play out how hf members want it to.

 

[haohmaru]

Let me explain:

The argument for Panarin is that no other UFA like him was available before or will be again, which is false, but at least it's an argument that could be made with a straight face. That argument is exposed as a lie because the same people want Trouba and others who are obviously not a once in a lifetime opportunity. When people argue for every big name on the market, it is obvious they just don't want to go through rebuilding and wish to do it the old Rangers way of trying to buy the Cup, which never works.

No need to "explain" your snarky point of view. I completely get it.

Nobody has said that "no other UFA like him was available before or will be again" other than you, repeatedly, in an awful attempt at being humorous and/or sarcastic. It wasn't funny the first time and it being repeated again and again makes it worse.

Are elite UFA's in their mid-late 20's routinely available that are of Panarin's level year after year? No, they aren't. Tavares wasn't really available to anyone other than two teams. Stamkos wasn't really available, he wanted leverage over TB for his last huge deal. Guys like Doughty, Crosby, Malkin, Datsyuk, etc.. are all signed by the clubs they play for long before free agency ever becomes a thing. Panarin level UFA's aren't routinely available. Period. Doesn't mean that he's a "once in a lifetime" UFA.

You can talk about the Rangers history of throwing money at everything that breathes and be right about it - until this current GM. He's clearly not interested in pursuing that route and obviously convinced the club that it isn't the path he intends to take. Keep in mind, however, that there are plenty of examples of clubs that did it "your way" and fail to make the playoffs year after year because the team they built around these draft picks are devoid of talent, leadership, or a team willing plunk down the coin it takes to sign players from within and players in free agency. There's no perfect formula, but every team that wins the Cup adds players via free agency and I would venture that all Stanley Cup winners had players over thirty that were key to winning a championship.

I get your point of view. It's the over the top absolutes and rhetoric that you really don't need to make your argument.

 

[DutchShamrock]

Actually Brendan Smith has a very good history with Babcock and the Leafs tried to sign him two years ago. They are not going to trade Kadri for him but Toronto is probably the only place that might trade for him and if the Rangers do buy him oi\\uut, I wouldn't be surprised if he lands there on a one year prove it contract.

This is the only Smith out. Maybe for just Horton straight up, maybe with brown. I assume 50% retained. It won't net Kadri or Kapanen or Johnsson.

 

[Beacon]

Again, this isn’t an argument people are making. Most people will acknowledge that things aren’t guaranteed to work out. The fact that you think they won’t is just another example of you misunderstanding the opposing opinions to your own.

Again, you didnt get my point. The issue isn't that an 8-12 pick is likely to be a top-6 player with a chance of going bust, as is believed. The issue is that the pick us likely to be a role player or a minor leaguer with a chance to be a star.

Same with UFAs. People acknowledge that there's a chance of failure. What they dont acknowledge is that this chance is much greater than the odds of success. Why? Because all 31 teams would want a star UFA and you need to outbid all or nearly all others, meaning 30 (or, say, 28) other GMs must believe signing him would be a bad idea.

True, some UFAs accept less to be on some teams. But Panarin showed zero indication he'd take less to be on the Rangers. If anything, our offer has to be significantly higher than the offer that Florida thinks is crazy because he clearly prefers Miami to New York.

And even when UFAs accept less money, like Richards and Shattenkirk did, it still winds up a bad signing more often than not.

The only acceptable time to sign a UFA is during your window, so he can push you over the line,and then after you win the Cup 1-3 times, you don't mind the cap hell disaster that follows.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

No offense, but this is the thinking I'm alluding to. It's easy moves, flick of the wrist, off to Hartford. But Smith and Shattenkirk cost us between $5m and $9m to not play. I'm not so sure that just happens. And these are not decisions are taken lightly.

What are the odds that both guys leave the team through waive or retained trade? We can be cavalier about roster moves on here, but let's be realistic. If trouba is acquired, Shattenkirk, Staal and Skjei are probably here. ADA is odd man out on the PP and getting scratched periodically. And one rookie cracks the d corps.

This won't play out how hf members want it to.

Maybe not, but they sent Redden to Hartford. Eating money hasn't been a problem for them.

I do agree that they need to be Sans Shattenkirk and Pionk in order for Trouba to make sense.

 

[DutchShamrock]

Mostly I’m advocating not shutting off considering things based on ideologies.

That being said, I think we’re likely buying Smith out and I think Shattenkirk is ripe to be Roszival’d. That is: overtaken by a young player and shipped out for less than full value in exchange for a young-ish reclamation project. With vets who are clearly the least good option at their position, you just gotta skip to the end of the conversation and get what you can.

I don’t think Staal is going anywhere.

Fair enough. Not really a way to resolve the disconnect between being open and being cautious. The path advocated by some, access the situation and figure out this team, is going to be at odds with your stance, you say not shutting things off but you have pushed for acquisitions that are substantial.

I get it. But I'm still wondering how we reconcile the issue with cutting the fat, accessing the next generation and adding parts when the opportunity presents itself. I feel like the org is hamstrung by the next Kreider contract, as well as the last 2 years of Lundqvist, Staal, Shattenkirk, and Smith.

 

[NYR Viper]

I was curious if a deal like Pionk + Smith at half cap hit for Marleau + would be a good premise if a deal. Perhaps the Leafs include someone like Brown who could be a good depth piece in NY. It gets the Rangers out from under Smith and gives them a rental piece to sell at the deadline in Marleau.

 

[SA16]

Same with UFAs. People acknowledge that there's a chance of failure. What they dont acknowledge is that this chance is much greater than the odds of success. Why? Because all 31 teams would want a star UFA and you need to outbid all or nearly all others, meaning 30 (or, say, 28) other GMs must believe signing him would be a bad idea.

Blatantly false.

 

[DutchShamrock]

Maybe not, but they sent Redden to Hartford. Eating money hasn't been a problem for them.

I do agree that they need to be Sans Shattenkirk and Pionk in order for Trouba to make sense.

It's not reluctance from a money standpoint. This is still an industry of relationships. They don't buy out players on a whim. Even for underperformance. Its rare. 2 in a summer is a unicorn. GMs feel bad for trades, buyouts are a last resort. I'm just looking at this with reality, what are the chances Smtih and Shattenkirk leave this team through retention and buyout? Not high in my book.

 

[DanielBrassard]

Again, you didnt get my point. The issue isn't that an 8-12 pick is likely to be a top-6 player with a chance of going bust, as is believed. The issue is that the pick us likely to be a role player or a minor leaguer with a chance to be a star.

Same with UFAs. People acknowledge that there's a chance of failure. What they dont acknowledge is that this chance is much greater than the odds of success. Why? Because all 31 teams would want a star UFA and you need to outbid all or nearly all others, meaning 30 (or, say, 28) other GMs must believe signing him would be a bad idea.

True, some UFAs accept less to be on some teams. But Panarin showed zero indication he'd take less to be on the Rangers. If anything, our offer has to be significantly higher than the offer that Florida thinks is crazy because he clearly prefers Miami to New York.

And even when UFAs accept less money, like Richards and Shattenkirk did, it still winds up a bad signing more often than not.

The only acceptable time to sign a UFA is during your window, so he can push you over the line,and then after you win the Cup 1-3 times, you don't mind the cap hell disaster that follows.

You keep repeating these and neither is true. The entire premise that you have to outbid 30 other GM's is just not true because most teams are not involved in bidding for these players because of cap issues, the player in question not being willing to sign with those teams or other reasons. Second of all where has it been shown he clearly prefers Miami? It's been said Florida is more likely because of Quenneville and Bobrovsky. And tell Jeff Gorton that the only appropriate time to sign a UFA is during your window. He clearly disagrees.

 

[egelband]

I still think this team’s best chance for long term sustained success is having another premium draft pick in 2020. Not sure how to best make that happen, be it trading Kreider for a 2020 pick or avoiding the lure of the UFA this year, but we are so close to coming out of the other side of this rebuild in amazing shape and I’d really hate to miss the mark by screwing up the end game.

I think there's essentially no chance they make the playoffs. Which to me is the line. Get into the lottery. To try to manipulate the odds beyond that is probably not going to be fruitful.
With, say, Panarin, Kreider, and Trouba, for an extreme example, with all the youngsters and learning curves, I still don't think they're a playoff team. But it's probably close.
But I don't think anyone expects them to have all three. It's probably one of those three long term. And I think that's a lottery team.
Anyhow, just speculating of course.

 

[egelband]

trade kreider to a bubble team for a 2020 pick...stay away from top UFAs and zuke re-signs with dallas giving us 3 1st...2019-20 is the year of the triple tank

Those would be great. But I think they could do that and still add Panarin or even Trouba if JG is high on them for the long term, and still collect assets. I know many don't agree. It's just one man's opinion.

Anyhow, caveat that with I'm against any deals that's not on JG's terms. The baseline is as @Leetch3 and others have said: collect assets.

 

[egelband]

Once again with Trouba..no one has provided a realistic package. DQ likes Buch and seems to be getting the most out of him. give up on Anderson already? They're not getting him for Pionk/Vesey/Namestnikov and a 2nd.

Trouba is not even McD from 2011-12---2014-15. He's had one year where he reached his potential on a stacked Winnipeg team that went to the WCF. He's more like a really good #3.

That's not really fair. He's not that kind of player. He's a guy who is big and mobile and plays with edge. He can keep play out of his own end and in his own end he is good at winning the puck and starting a counter attack. He's not offensively gifted but he does very important things. I think he also kills penalties well. He's sort of a bigger as tougher Brady Skjei. Is my impression. What he gives up in pure skating he gains in physicality. He's not a perfect defender but a key and hard-to-find ingredient on a successful team.
All that said, it still comes down to the cost.