Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XLV

[egelband]

For those that want Stralman back, remember this is not the old Stralman. He's in his 30s and ok, no longer is he "the best kept secret in the NHL."

Stop with all your stralman arguments!

Oh sorry...

 

[Tawnos]

Fair enough. Not really a way to resolve the disconnect between being open and being cautious. The path advocated by some, access the situation and figure out this team, is going to be at odds with your stance, you say not shutting things off but you have pushed for acquisitions that are substantial.

I get it. But I'm still wondering how we reconcile the issue with cutting the fat, accessing the next generation and adding parts when the opportunity presents itself. I feel like the org is hamstrung by the next Kreider contract, as well as the last 2 years of Lundqvist, Staal, Shattenkirk, and Smith.

I don’t see those as opposing issues though, so no reconciliation needed.

 

[Beacon]

The entire premise that you have to outbid 30 other GM's is just not true because most teams are not involved in bidding for these players because of cap issues.

First, not so because any team that could get a first line/pair player for a non-albatross contract would clear the room by trading someone for picks and prospects. But those teams know that a reasonable contract is impossible for UFAs, so they are the first ones out. Then there are 4-7 teams that go hardcore for the player, and most of the time, you have to put in a bid that even the rest of those GMs think is too crazy despite the fact that they can afford the player and have a need for him.

Now, in a fantasyland we can sign UFAs at a great discount. Did that work out before? Shattenkirk, Smith, Richards, Staal, Girardi, Redden, Gomez, Drury? Not one was worth the cap hit despite some giving us a discount (and stealing Mcdonagh for Gomez does not mean his contract didn't quickly become an albatross that everyone was begging to get rid of).

The last UFA who could be said to have worked out is Gaborik and he was a huge risk at the time of the signing, but luckily stayed reasonably healthy despite coming off a 17-game season and playing over 65 games just once in the previous 5 years before coming here. No doubt 10-15% of the time you'll get lucky, but look through the list of past UFAs and it is clear that the vast majority brought the team nothing but pain.

But I know your answer: the past doesn't matter, next time will be totally different.

 

[Edge]

The real difference between our opinions is that I don't believe that "there's a point where we should"... I believe that we're ALWAYS at that point.

I would agree that’s our fundamental difference.

I’m a staunch believer that timing is everything.

 

[Beacon]

Hate all those fans who say they want to rebuild the wrong way.

The road to hell is built with good intentions.

 

[Lindberg Cheese]

Man if we pick up Panarin, just hope the D can be fixed in parallel, my heart isn’t gonna last a season of 5-4, 6-5 games....

 

[Thirty One]

The road to hell is built with good intentions.

I’m not religious.

 

[bobbop]

Trouba is not even McD from 2011-12---2014-15. He's had one year where he reached his potential on a stacked Winnipeg team that went to the WCF. He's more like a really good #3.

Do you watch the Jets?

Trouba has been a good NHL defenseman literally from his first game in the league. He played his offside for a couple of year so the Jets could load their top four. More recently, he’s clearly become the number one defenseman on what is a pretty good team.

He plays defense extremely well...something that has been in short supply around here for a number of years.

He’s been on the Rangers radar for several years and anyone who follows my posts here knows I’ve been beating the drums for him whenever it appears he might be available.

Because I live in the west, I get to see him play 10-15 times a year. McDonagh 2014-15 was excellent but he never again played to that level. By comparison, Trouba is getting better as he ages.

If you think he’s a number three defenseman...well, you are entitled to your opinion but I doubt you would find much company in the hockey community.

 

[donpaulo]

Trouba is a top pairing defenseman

Don't think NY can afford the cost to acquire him

 

[Beacon]

Interesting how precise you’re when it comes to prospects chances on making it depending on their draft position and how imprecise with these answers.

I never said prospect futures are precise I mentioned what the average odds per draft spot are, which should be used as a starting point, but obviously not as always true. For ex, the average man is 5'9. That doesn't mean that 100% of men are 5'9, but if, without first seeing them, you guess that the next 10 men who walk past you on the street will be 7 ft tall, I'll wonder how you can predict that. Merely saying, "not everyone is 5'9, Shaq was 7 ft" does not make it a reasonable guess that you're about to see a group of giants.

Anyway, don’t the you see how inconsistent you are? On one hand you say the Rangers chances are low to get Panarin (let’s say 20% generously), but then turnaround and imply that the Rangers will have a great chance to get this a hypothetically available UFA of Panarin’s caliber (again generously one every couple of years) in the future?


An analogy that comes to mind would be - to count on a late round pick to turn into a topliner.

It's simple. First, Panarin seems to prefer the Cats. Second, I'm not guessing that one particular UFA will sign here, I'm saying there are multiple top players available via trade or free agency every year, and odds are we score at least one of them who views NYC as his #1 destination. It's just like the prospects: I say that one first rounder has low odds of being a star, but when you have #9, #22 and #28, the odds of getting at least one to be really good are very solid.

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

That's not really fair. He's not that kind of player. He's a guy who is big and mobile and plays with edge. He can keep play out of his own end and in his own end he is good at winning the puck and starting a counter attack. He's not offensively gifted but he does very important things. I think he also kills penalties well. He's sort of a bigger as tougher Brady Skjei. Is my impression. What he gives up in pure skating he gains in physicality. He's not a perfect defender but a key and hard-to-find ingredient on a successful team.
All that said, it still comes down to the cost.

Exactly. Acquire him to be the #2 RHD to the #1 LHD already in the org. or to come.

 

[Inferno]

I never said prospect futures are precise I mentioned what the average odds per draft spot are, which should be used as a starting point, but obviously not as always true. For ex, the average man is 5'9. That doesn't mean that 100% of men are 5'9, but if, without first seeing them, you guess that the next 10 men who walk past you on the street will be 7 ft tall, I'll wonder how you can predict that. Merely saying, "not everyone is 5'9, Shaq was 7 ft" does not make it a reasonable guess that you're about to see a group of giants.

Weirdest.....example...EVER

 

[EdJovanovski]

Trouba sucks

 

[Vitto79]

I was curious if a deal like Pionk + Smith at half cap hit for Marleau + would be a good premise if a deal. Perhaps the Leafs include someone like Brown who could be a good depth piece in NY. It gets the Rangers out from under Smith and gives them a rental piece to sell at the deadline in Marleau.

The rumor now is he wants to leave TO for a team in the West so if h goes elsewhere it’s a buyout but he’s in the cap at over 35 so can’t really retain on Smith .... trade straight up ok

 

[RangerBoy]

“The word is that Erik Karlsson is taking a long, hard look at deciding if he wants to stay in San Jose,” said Friedman during the ‘Headlines’ segment on Hockey Night in Canada. “And I think we’re going to know, in about a week, if he’s going to stay or if he’s going to investigate his other free agency options.

“He wants to win, the Sharks are perennially in it [and] they’ve made a good impression on him.”

Karlsson wants to win. He knows the clock is ticking. His body has broken down on him. He doesn't have many good years remaining.

TB would also give him the ability to win in the immediate future. TB needs help on D. They have two experienced D signed in Hedman and McDonagh. Sergachev and Cernak are making entry level money.

Karlsson isn't getting the contract he turned down in Ottawa.

Kevin Kurz of The Athletic reported the Sharks want Karlsson back but they are leery of a long term contract with his injury history. Money won't be issue. High taxes in California.

Joe Smith of The Athletic reported TB would be willing to pay Karlsson $8M-$9M per. No state income tax. TB wanted Karlsson last summer. They couldn't afford to pay him more than that last summer and Karlsson still wanted to play there. They signed Kucherov and still had the room to pay Karlsson if they could have pulled off the trade with Ottawa.

SJ can offer more money but it probably is the same money in TB after taxes.

TB needs to move one at one of their overpriced middling forwards(Miller is always mentioned) in addition to Callahan to make it work. They know how to make it work because they were ready to make the trade last summer for Karlsson. It will be very tight but it's doable.

 

[RangerBoy]

The scouting combine is over. Lundqvist should have returned to NY by now. Oh to be a fly on the wall listening to what Lundqvist wants to discuss with the Rangers. Are the Rangers plans in synch with his plans and their role for him during the remaining two years of his contract?

 

[NYRFANMANI]

The only reason I wouldn't try getting Breadman is that 2020 1st round pick.

Without him it's a top 5-10, with him a 10-20 pick ...

 

[haohmaru]

The last UFA who could be said to have worked out is Gaborik...

Grabner says hello.

But I know your answer: the past doesn't matter, next time will be totally different.

The past does matter if you care to remember it correctly.

 

[Vitto79]

Man if we pick up Panarin, just hope the D can be fixed in parallel, my heart isn’t gonna last a season of 5-4, 6-5 games....

Sounds like Gorton knows it needs fixing and will make moves ... I know it’s a rebuild but he won’t wait to pounce if he finds a good deal

 

[kovazub94]

I agree that both Trouba and Panrin would be great gets. But I think the timing isn't quite right to start making those big commitments. Now, if the price/s is/are low, sure. And I would want JG to make team-friendly offers. Maybe one of them wants to get in on the ground floor of something great. Offer Panarin something like what Henrik got. Find out if Trouba wants to re-up at a reasonable number and see how tough it would be to acquire. But if neither of those costs are inine with the rangers ideals, the beauty part of the Rangers situation is JG can just walk away. No need to rush or be forced into anything. Keeping options open is the key. I think the Rangers get that, too.

I’m not arguing with any of it. I’m not advocating for getting these players at any cost necessary - I don’t want Gorton to outbid other suitors by a margin to make it impossible for Panarin to refuse. I also recognize that the pursuit is less likely if they decide to keep Kreider with a long term contract extension.

Same with Trouba. If Chevy wants some combination of Kravtsov, Chytil, Buch then he can go f*** himself. But if his value is based on the fact that he’s a UFA in a year who won’t resign with the Jets under any circumstances and the Rangers will have a chance to bring him with a ready extension then there’s a room to negotiate. I’d gladly do it for Skjei plus Pionk, more reluctantly for Skjei plus Lias but would consider it fair.

I just don’t want the FO dismissing the opportunities outright because the timing is one year off. There’s a risk pursuing these players, but there are no lesser risks if they don’t.

 

[Mikos87]

A couple of weeks ago I posted that Brodie was on the block.

Bob McKenzie is reporting that it’s out there now.

 

[Off Sides]

Do you watch the Jets?

Trouba has been a good NHL defenseman literally from his first game in the league. He played his offside for a couple of year so the Jets could load their top four. More recently, he’s clearly become the number one defenseman on what is a pretty good team.

He plays defense extremely well...something that has been in short supply around here for a number of years.

He’s been on the Rangers radar for several years and anyone who follows my posts here knows I’ve been beating the drums for him whenever it appears he might be available.

Because I live in the west, I get to see him play 10-15 times a year. McDonagh 2014-15 was excellent but he never again played to that level. By comparison, Trouba is getting better as he ages.

If you think he’s a number three defenseman...well, you are entitled to your opinion but I doubt you would find much company in the hockey community.

I too watched about that many of their games, and the 6 playoff games, and I have a slightly different take.

He is a top pair defender, when Buff is out. If and when Buff is an option they use him a little more 5on5 and a bit more on the PP.

His defense is top notch, no debate from me there. Yet he is not an elite gifted puck transporter/distributor or PP player imo.

Not to say I don't see value there as a RD, more I think whoever gives him his next contract is going to be doing so hoping he can develop parts of his game to a more elite level where they are not naturally there.

Since Good RD are few and far between, of course that also adds some value. Yet if the expectations are he is a 20-22 minute per playoff game all around defender who is going to put up a lot of points though his own merits, I'm not sure those expectation are set correctly.

At least it would not be expecting Shattenkirk or Smith to play a whole tier or pair above where they are capable, more like expecting a half tier better.

 

[NYR Viper]

Is Trouba worth that much more than Kreider? Why wouldn’t the team acquiring Kreider also extend him? We’ve been throwing around the value of Kreider as a middle 1st rounder + young NHLer or good prospect. Something like Arizona’s 1st + Crouse.

Theoretically what if this was Gorton’s plan:

Kreider for ARI 1st + Crouse

Skjei + WPG 1st for Trouba

The Rangers add Trouba and still move up in the draft. The swap of Trouba for Skjei makes sense from the Rangers POV.

 

[Ola]

The scouting combine is over. Lundqvist should have returned to NY by now. Oh to be a fly on the wall listening to what Lundqvist wants to discuss with the Rangers. Are the Rangers plans in synch with his plans and their role for him during the remaining two years of his contract?

I think there is a distinct risk that Lundqvist will meet up with Dolan directly and convince him to go all in this summer, trading Kakko for Malkin and signing Karlsson and Panarin. I just think that we should all be prepared for that this is quite probable.

Do you think that would be a good option or not?

 

[Squarp]

I think there is a distinct risk that Lundqvist will meet up with Dolan directly and convince him to go all in this summer, trading Kakko for Malkin and signing Karlsson and Panarin. I just think that we should all be prepared for that this is quite probable.

Do you think that would be a good option or not?

wtf??? that is not at all probable. literally 0% probable