Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XLIV

[DutchShamrock]

The next Trouba never-ending-story affair could be Matt Tkachuk in Calgary.



Players stand to gain a lot from -- not -- resigning to a 7-8 year deal that is lucrative to their team when they are coming of their ELC. Crosby is a special case, but he probably left a good 30-40m USD on the table with his deal... Someone like Trouba's career earnings will probably be significantly higher after the route he has taken, compared to what he would have got if he inked the long-term deals Chevy put in front of him.

This is why I want no part of Lucic, Callahan even. The bar on RFAs is going to jump and we don't know how this plays out. Teams are going to part with very good pieces at a discount. I would rather take a good player from Calgary or Winnipeg than trash from Edmonton.

 

[NYR Viper]

I really think that when Lucic gets out of Edmonton, he will have a bump in his production. I’m not talking 50 points, but I could see him hovering around 30-35 points and providing some leadership and toughness for his next team. Especially if that team uses him properly.

In saying that, he’ll no to him if Edmonton won’t retain, take Smith AND send over some sweeteners.

 

[kovazub94]

Yeah the soft mention of Pietriangelo made me chuckle.

Yeah a franchise corner stone was taken with a lottery pick.... but it doesnt count because it was 11 years ago!

According to some here it should not count as the players prime age is 22-25. Old man Pietrangelo is just taking some youngster’s roster spot at this point.

 

[Beacon]

Players stand to gain a lot from -- not -- resigning to a 7-8 year deal that is lucrative to their team when they are coming of their ELC. Crosby is a special case, but he probably left a good 30-40m USD on the table with his deal... Someone like Trouba's career earnings will probably be significantly higher after the route he has taken, compared to what he would have got if he inked the long-term deals Chevy put in front of him.

Players want certainty. You get injured at the age of 24 or your game suddenly collapses or a rule change makes you obsolete, you walk away with very little, likely not enough to last you til retirement.

As a player, you can't just make a statistical analysis of how your life will go because you have only one life. You take your big long-term contract and set yourself up for an incredible life.

 

[SA16]

Players want certainty. You get injured at the age of 24 or your game suddenly collapses or a rule change makes you obsolete, you walk away with very little, likely not enough to last you til retirement.

As a player, you can't just make a statistical analysis of how your life will go because you have only one life. You take your big long-term contract and set yourself up for an incredible life.

There’s no one size fits all here. Max Scherzer turned down 144M mid season from the Tigers because he thought he could get more. That would have been the 6th highest contract in baseball. And he plays one of the positions most susceptible to major injury in sports.

 

[I Eat Crow]

Why not take on Callahan for a year if he comes with an asset? It's not like the Rangers are flooded with forward talent and had Brendan freaking Smith playing forward night in and night out.

 

[RangerBoy]

Eric Francis wrote about Brady Tkachuk a few days ago.

“If five years is what Tkachuk wants he’s on the right track,” said one of the league’s most prominent agents.

“I would even argue four years, but the team won’t want that. I would use (Oilers forward Leon) Draisaitl as my floor to start negotiations (at $8.5 million annually). Tkachuk falls somewhere between $8.5 million and $10 million. I wouldn’t put him above (Auston) Matthews.”

Tkachuk is 4 years away from group III.

“If I’m the team I want seven or eight years because I’m willing to overpay for the first few years, but the market will catch up to the deal,” said one agent, citing the lessons learned from contracts like Erik Karlsson’s.

“If I was repping (Tkachuk) I’d go four or five years. Look at Karlsson, arguably the top defenceman in the league. He locked in at $6.5 million (for seven years). Now he’s banged up as a UFA, and out of his prime, and he’s lost millions he’ll never get back.”

Karlsson signed a 7 contract extension at 22. He has suffered numerous serious left leg injuries. Banged up. Out of his prime. Newport Sports f***ed up there. It was a very cheap number for Ottawa too.

Tkachuk could sign a 5 year deal and walk as a free agent at the end of the contract. The number for more years will be too high for the team. Why would the player sign a contract which takes him to 29 and not see another big huge deal? Karlsson lesson.

 

[NYR Viper]

Why not take on Callahan for a year if he comes with an asset? It's not like the Rangers are flooded with forward talent and had Brendan freaking Smith playing forward night in and night out.

They should.

They should also look to do the same elsewhere.

 

[SA16]

Why not take on Callahan for a year if he comes with an asset? It's not like the Rangers are flooded with forward talent and had Brendan freaking Smith playing forward night in and night out.

Taking him on prior to 7/1 essentially takes them completely out of the Panarin sweepstakes (unless they can move a lot of other guys out after). I know some people don't want him but I highly doubt they are going to put themselves in the position where they have trouble with cap space if he want to come here even if he agrees to take slightly less money.

That is why I would not take him with the 27th ovr pick from Tampa but I would for their pick next year (if it comes to 7/1 and Panarin signs elsewhere).

 

[East Coast Bias]

This place is going to be apocalyptic when Kakko wants a big deal after 3 years. Our staunch capitalists are going to turn on him quickly.

 

[Irishguy42]

This place is going to be apocalyptic when Kakko wants a big deal after 3 years. Our staunch capitalists are going to turn on him quickly.

Some are already ready to go

 

[Fitzy]

This place is going to be apocalyptic when Kakko wants a big deal after 3 years. Our staunch capitalists are going to turn on him quickly.

I'm a staunch capitalist- you've gotta pay stars what they deserve sometimes. RFA really only gives you first rights nowadays. They key is what you can get from

ELCs
ATO cheap reclamation signings
And targeted UFAs.

Additionally, the players you give bid deals to have to maintain or improve their production (Zibanejad, Brassard), rather than regress (Staal).

I don't know too many teams who extend their star RFAs on big deals that regret it to the degree that we see bad UFA signings.

 

[FIRE DRURY]

Trade Kappo!!

 

[Ola]

Players want certainty. You get injured at the age of 24 or your game suddenly collapses or a rule change makes you obsolete, you walk away with very little, likely not enough to last you til retirement.

As a player, you can't just make a statistical analysis of how your life will go because you have only one life. You take your big long-term contract and set yourself up for an incredible life.

Of course, and hence why so many players sign contracts that very likely will result in them leaving a ton of money on the table.

But I don't think everything quite adds up. I am certain that there is a problem with the agents. If the saying rather a bird in the hand than ten in the bushes rings through its in relation to agents. They get one client to ink one contract for 7 years -- its a big pay-off for them for a long time. Its a big big deal for them. One contract for one year is not. The client of yours will be attacked by all other agents trying to win him when that contract is supposed to be renegotiated. You have to spend a ton of time to wine and dine that player, or whatever these guys do. You can't put that effort into finding new clients. You bear all the risk in relation to your own business. Hence these guys pushes really hard for their client to ink these long contracts. We think many of them are tremendously cheap now, imagine how many of them will look in 3-4 years. Top players paid 5-6m per.

I don't think its surprising that its a guy like Matt Tkachuk who has a lot of support who might push the boundaries. If we look around the league and at history, you won't find that many examples of players who were world beaters at the age of 22 but couldn't keep it up for 3-4 more years when they can ink the big UFA deal.

 

[DutchShamrock]

Why not take on Callahan for a year if he comes with an asset? It's not like the Rangers are flooded with forward talent and had Brendan freaking Smith playing forward night in and night out.

If his cap hit prevents us from acquiring a good player from a cap strapped team, that is a bad use of cap.

But it depends on the asset. The most common proposal I see here is Callahan and the 1st for their 2nd. At that point of the draft, there is a small difference in expected performance of the pick. We are paying an opportunity cost of acquiring a proven good player to slightly increase the odds of a single pick. After the 20ish pick, we should be adding chances instead of swapping places.

Callahan is integral to them acquiring Karlsson. They can give us their 1st for nothing. Otherwise I'll talk to Toronto about Kapanen, Florida about Hoffman, Vegas about Miller, even Frolik is more appealing since he would be a good deadline flip.

 

[Ola]

Eric Francis wrote about Brady Tkachuk a few days ago.



Tkachuk is 4 years away from group III.

Karlsson signed a 7 contract extension at 22. He has suffered numerous serious left leg injuries. Banged up. Out of his prime. Newport Sports ****ed up there. It was a very cheap number for Ottawa too.

Tkachuk could sign a 5 year deal and walk as a free agent at the end of the contract. The number for more years will be too high for the team. Why would the player sign a contract which takes him to 29 and not see another big huge deal? Karlsson lesson.

Totally agree, getting a young player like that, age 21-23, is absolutely perfect for the longest deals. 7-8 years. You get all the prime years. Its when you drag on signing the long term contract that you get into problems.

 

[I Eat Crow]

This place is going to be apocalyptic when Kakko wants a big deal after 3 years. Our staunch capitalists are going to turn on him quickly.

Cap space won't be an issue in 3 years. All of the big contracts are off the books in two years.

 

[Vitto79]

Cap space won't be an issue in 3 years. All of the big contracts are off the books in two years.

Which is why I wouldn’t sign a big ufa this year .... will be so close to having a ton of space and easily signing the kids that develop and a ufa at that time

 

[Player big P]

This place is going to be apocalyptic when Kakko wants a big deal after 3 years. Our staunch capitalists are going to turn on him quickly.

Why in the world would any staunch capitalist object to paying someone what the market dictates their services are worth?

 

[HatTrick Swayze]

Why in the world would any staunch capitalist object to paying someone what the market dictates their services are worth?

Yea, makes zero sense...

 

[n8]

Fast: Expiring contractm Rental that contenders value. Hockey trade is on where it's not a cap related deal, ie rental, or adding/removing dollars.

4th Liners: Legitimate checkers that can kill penalties, and defend 5v5, play physical.

Rangers iced what? Smith and Brinkley and dressed 7 defensemen?

My point was that Fast would work great as a 4th line wing who can kill penalties. His expiring contract does make him attractive at the TDL but you don't think it's worth considering resigning him? Especially since you say it's easy to overpay these types of 4th liners? I think we get a better price on resigning Fast than in the UFA market. What's nice is that we have some potential room to scope it out. Would love Brandon Tanev signed at $2M aav but he'll probably get at least $2.5M, and up to $3M. Dunno if Hagelin for 3 years, $7M would make sense or work.

 

[Michal]

What the hell does Edmonton even have to package with Lucic?

1rd picks

 

[Leetch3]

Many teams have problems entering this summer:
7 NHL teams staring into the infernos of salary cap hell - Sportsnet.ca

It won't be easy to trade players.

i chuckled as I scrolled the list and got to the islanders...the rest of the list are contenders or teams that have won that are paying for that and then you got the oilers, how does a team that finishes last every year have cap issues. such a terrible organization

 

[Leetch3]

Why not take on Callahan for a year if he comes with an asset? It's not like the Rangers are flooded with forward talent and had Brendan freaking Smith playing forward night in and night out.

as much as I don't like cally after the way he played out his final year he would be a good vet for the team if we can get a good asset...and this is the type of move we should be making with our cap space. however depending on what happens with kreider and likely adding kakko and kravtsov the forward depth isn't gonna be that bad

mika, kreider, buchnevich, chytil, anderson, howden, lemieux, fast, kravtsov, kakko, namestnikov, vesey, strome, nieves....thats 14 guys...so i don't see room for smith on LW and we don't need live bodies if the additional asset isn't worth it

 

[n8]

What weird to me is "we need a

Our fourth line was awful last year - a hurt Fast and whoever else we could stick in there with a pulse. Hell, how many games did we have a 7th D and double shifting someone on that 4th line?

If Fast has a solid bounce-back year, he'll be sought after at the deadline for sure. I don't see what's contradictory here.

What's weird to me is "we need a fourth line" --> trade our one legit 4th liner. I get it if you want to sell up at the TDL but unless we've acquired better UFA options like Tanev and maybe(?) Hagelin on shorter term, trading Fast leaves an even bigger hole on the fourth line. Who is taking his PK time if he's traded? We really need a big improvement on the PK.