Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XLIV

[eco's bones]

From The Dallas Morning News Why you shouldn't expect to see Jason Spezza or Roman Polak back in a Stars uniform next season:

"Matthew DeFranks, Stars beat writer for SportsDayDFW.com and The Dallas Morning News, answered your questions about the team in a live chat Thursday.

Is it fair to say that re-signing Mats Zuccarello is the No. 1 priority for the Stars this offseason? What exactly does Dallas need to do to ensure that happens?


DeFranks: At this point, yes. You could argue that it was more important than extending Esa Lindell, and now that Lindell's signed, Zuccarello is the main target. He helped transform the Stars top six after the trade and Dallas needs a top-six forward in the offseason (either him or someone else).
As far as what the Stars need to do, the cap hit will probably fall in the $6 million range. Some comps to be aware of:
-- James Neal (5 yrs, $5.75 million)
-- T.J. Oshie (8 yrs, $5.75 million)
-- Patric Hornqvist (5 yrs, $5.3 million)
-- Alex Steen (4 yrs, $5.75 million)
-- Alexander Radulov (5 yrs, $6.25 million)
Those are wingers at least 30 years old with similar-ish point production to Zuccarello. After that, it's about contract length"

Well they have 35 days until free agency starts. Time is awasting.

 

[eco's bones]

From The Dallas Morning News Why you shouldn't expect to see Jason Spezza or Roman Polak back in a Stars uniform next season:

"Matthew DeFranks, Stars beat writer for SportsDayDFW.com and The Dallas Morning News, answered your questions about the team in a live chat Thursday.

Is it fair to say that re-signing Mats Zuccarello is the No. 1 priority for the Stars this offseason? What exactly does Dallas need to do to ensure that happens?


DeFranks: At this point, yes. You could argue that it was more important than extending Esa Lindell, and now that Lindell's signed, Zuccarello is the main target. He helped transform the Stars top six after the trade and Dallas needs a top-six forward in the offseason (either him or someone else).
As far as what the Stars need to do, the cap hit will probably fall in the $6 million range. Some comps to be aware of:
-- James Neal (5 yrs, $5.75 million)
-- T.J. Oshie (8 yrs, $5.75 million)
-- Patric Hornqvist (5 yrs, $5.3 million)
-- Alex Steen (4 yrs, $5.75 million)
-- Alexander Radulov (5 yrs, $6.25 million)
Those are wingers at least 30 years old with similar-ish point production to Zuccarello. After that, it's about contract length"

Well they have 35 days until free agency starts. Time is awasting.

 

[Leetch3]

I disagree on not competing for the next 4 seasons. Especially if Edmonton retains. Lots of teams have an older player or two who may be slightly overpaid to help build an identity and lead the young players.

i don't know enough about lucic's reputation as a teammate and lockerroom guy though to say if he's the type of veteran you want for that role

 

[Bob Richards]

Lucic is bad but I feel it's reached meme status as far as how bad he actually is.

He's more of a run of the mill 4th liner who does nothing than a festering zit who very actively hurts the team.

I mean, having him on the team says we're not competing for 4 years??? We literally did compete with Tanner ****ing Glass in the lineup.

Tanner Glass, he is not.

I don't know man. His big drop off started in 2017-18 by the half way point of the season. Since then:

Games - 120
Goals - 7
Assist - 20
Points - 27

For $6 million that's pretty brutal. For an overpaid 4th liner at half retained that's brutal. 4 more years.

 

[Beacon]

I disagree on not competing for the next 4 seasons. Especially if Edmonton retains. Lots of teams have an older player or two who may be slightly overpaid to help build an identity and lead the young players.

You're literally acquiring an albatross for 4 years in Hope's it will help in 4+ years. How does it not signal that results don't matter til 2023?

 

[Machinehead]

I don't know man. His big drop off started in 2017-18 by the half way point of the season. Since then:

Games - 120
Goals - 7
Assist - 20
Points - 27

For $6 million that's pretty brutal. For an overpaid 4th liner at half retained that's brutal. 4 more years.

That's about 23 more points than Glass would have in 120 games lol

And yeah, Lucic is an absolute bomb offensively, and that's why he's a bad player. Overall, though, his on-ice impacts are generally still positive.

I'd rather have him on the ice than a guy like Jay Beagle who gives up 2 goals and 13 shots taking his kids to school.

 

[Beacon]

there is no fancy name that's going to be out there in the summer of 21

There's always Gretzky, Holik, Gomez, Richards. Look up the articles at the time of their signing, each time "this time it will be different." That should be the official slogan of the New York Rangers.

 

[Machinehead]

Don't get me wrong, Lucic is really bad. But it's exaggerated.

Saying we wouldn't compete for the duration with his contract? I mean, c'mon...

Washington won the Cup with Beagle AND Devante Smith-Pelley on the same line, which is like playing with three guys.

 

[Machinehead]

A post I've been wanting to make for a while-

Those suggesting we make trades or sign players of a particular nationality to help a new young prospect adjust are barking up the wrong tree in my eyes.

Social research has indicated that when an individual moves to a foreign country of a different language, they become much more proficient when they do so single as opposed to with a partner or spouse. The mechanism being that if you have one close friend or spouse of the same language, you can lean on them for social interaction and don't have to devote the same amount of time and effort into learning the new language and culture.

And that's well before we even get into what the cost-benefit ratio of making an otherwise undesirable move just to make a prospect slightly more comfortable were to be, if we were too suggest it helped at all.

It's hilarious how hockey fans treat countries like wine clubs.

"There's only 144,500,000 people in Russia; they probably know each other!!"

 

[Bob Richards]

Don't get me wrong, Lucic is really bad. But it's exaggerated.

Saying we wouldn't compete for the duration with his contract? I mean, c'mon...

Washington won the Cup with Beagle AND Devante Smith-Pelley on the same line, which is like playing with three guys.

I don't think the point being made is that Lucic is the worst player in the league. I don't think anyone thinks that.

The point is that he has arguably the most toxic contract this side of Brent Seabrook.

 

[Machinehead]

I don't think the point being made is that Lucic is the worst player in the league. I don't think anyone thinks that.

The point is that he has arguably the most toxic contract this side of Brent Seabrook.

No, it's definitely an awful contract and Edmonton would have to pay the f*** up for me to bite on that.

Seabrook has the added bonus of actually being one of the worst players in the league.

 

[eco's bones]

There's always Gretzky, Holik, Gomez, Richards. Look up the articles at the time of their signing, each time "this time it will be different." That should be the official slogan of the New York Rangers.

You really want to argue that how things were in the pre-cap era have anything to do with how things are today?

 

[Lindberg Cheese]

We'll probably sign the fanciest name on the market the summer of 2021and claim no other UFA like that was available before or will ever be available again. We will read articles how this time it's different. Then complain from 2022 to 2028 about the need to buy him out or demand Gorts pay someone to take him.

If history bears out, unfortunately yes. I was hoping the wisely insertion was a subliminal message to JG through my tin foil hat.

 

[Trxjw]

I don't think anyone has any illusions about Lucic regaining his old form offensively with a new team. The allure is the sweetener(s) you're getting in addition to Lucic. If you're not getting a premium piece or two in the deal then it's simply not a consideration.

 

[aufheben]

What the hell does Edmonton even have to package with Lucic?

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Lucic doesnt add anything here, taking his contract on for the duration might actually hurt us later...its not a fit. The clarkston contract I'd be interested in though

 

[Ola]

That's about 23 more points than Glass would have in 120 games lol

And yeah, Lucic is an absolute bomb offensively, and that's why he's a bad player. Overall, though, his on-ice impacts are generally still positive.

I'd rather have him on the ice than a guy like Jay Beagle who gives up 2 goals and 13 shots taking his kids to school.

And aren't those stats mostly from playing with McDavid too?

 

[Ola]

I like the prospects of being able to send Namestnikov to Tampa with retention if Tampa have been forced to move some guys this summer. He knows them and they knows him.

 

[Ola]

BTW, on the topic of finding the mole in our pro-scouting department. Do we have any intel on who scouted Namestnikov and who scouted Emerson Etem? Can't we run those lists against each other to see if something seem suspicious?

As I understand it @nyr2k2 stake-out of the Taco Bell in the mall at 31st and 7th or @BBKers undercover role as a gardner in Palm Springs haven't given us anything yet. I feel like we need some firm leads. Some DNA of these guys would take us a long way, could sign up to one of those sites like Ancestry.com and see if one of our guys have some blood-lines to the NJD organization. Imagine if Justin Sather gets hits in the Lamirello family tree, the explanation would have been sitting -- right in front of our eyes -- the whole time.

 

[Machinehead]

And aren't those stats mostly from playing with McDavid too?

McDavid and Lucic aren't even on first-name basis.

98 minutes together this year out of a possible 2,000.

 

[Ola]

McDavid and Lucic aren't even on first-name basis.

98 minutes together this year out of a possible 2,000.

Ah, OK.

 

[Beacon]

You really want to argue that how things were in the pre-cap era have anything to do with how things are today?

Nylander, Gomez, Drury, Naslund, Prospal, Gaborik, Redden, Richards, Shattenkirk were all signed after the cap went into effect. In fact, the very first thing the Rangers did in response to the introduction of the salary cap was to sign 7 of their top 9 scorers in 2005-6 as UFAs (plus the acquisition of Jagr in 2004 when it was obvious the cap is coming).

A few of these UFAs worked out, but a large majority was bad, pretty bad or at least not worth the money.

 

[Ola]

Many teams have problems entering this summer:
7 NHL teams staring into the infernos of salary cap hell - Sportsnet.ca

It won't be easy to trade players.

 

[eco's bones]

Nylander, Gomez, Drury, Naslund, Prospal, Gaborik, Redden, Richards, Shattenkirk were all signed after the cap went into effect. In fact, the very first thing the Rangers did in response to the introduction of the salary cap was to sign 7 of their top 9 scorers in 2005-6 as UFAs (plus the acquisition of Jagr in 2004 when it was obvious the cap is coming).

A few of these UFAs worked out, but a large majority was bad, pretty bad or at least not worth the money.

Well to comment on 2005-06--the Rangers had been depleting development for years and years--so yeah they did sign a lot of guys coming out of the lockout. Even so with all that that 2005-06 season lots of pundits thought the Rangers were going to be the worst team in the league and instead they had a 100 point season and it gave them breathing space to begin drafting and developing young players again. The significant player to show up that year was Henrik--Rangers had drafted Staal but sent him back to the OHL the next two seasons instead of rushing his development which can be but is not always harmful.

Any case Nylander played two years for the Rangers and did very well--160 regular season games 49 goals and 113 assists for 162 points--a point a game player--14 playoff games 6 goals 8 assists 14 points--a point a game player. Rangers were not expected to make the playoffs and he was a key reason why they did. Hard to argue that he wasn't a very very good free agent signing.

So Gomez--first season with the Rangers he was a 70 point player and in 10 playoff games had 4 goals and 11 points. He dropped to 56 points the next season with 5 in 7 playoff games and then he was the main piece for the Canadiens in a deal that brought the Rangers Ryan McDonagh. And without McDonagh who had quite a number of very good to excellent seasons with the Rangers including 13-14 when the Rangers made the Cup finals we wouldn't have Howden, Hajek, Nils Lundkvist or Tampa's 2nd rounder this year. Gomez turned out to be a great signing for us if only because that signing turned into a catalyst for a lot of other good things.

And Drury is now our asst. GM and a key figure in player development and though things are kind of early with that I like him in that spot. Maybe that never happens without his playing for the Rangers. Drury had two pretty good years for us and two that weren't so hot.

Naslund did one okay season and was done. Nothing long term there. That was okay. Prospal did alright.

Gaborik had two 40+ goal seasons an one very long playoff run and became part of the Nash deal which eventually morphed into K'Andre Miller. Going back to when we signed Gaborik--would I sign his two 40+ goal seasons, one long playoff run, Nash's Stanley cup run and us drafting K'Andre Miller again?---Yup.

Redden was a disaster. Chara was a free agent at the same time that some of us (including myself were more interested in)---sign Redden again?--No. Sign Chara instead?--Yeah.

Richards first season was very good. Then his decline started. Still--two long playoff runs in his three seasons and after leaving the team he goes on to win a Stanley Cup with the Blackhawks.

So all in all most of that I would do all over again and some of these signings have morphed into our youth movement going on today--particularly Gomez and Gaborik. Which is also to say that signing a free agent and moving him for picks and prospects later on is another avenue to take and not signing means not having that avenue.

Edit: Ryan Lindgren is another asset that comes out of the Gaborik signing.

 

[Ola]

The next Trouba never-ending-story affair could be Matt Tkachuk in Calgary.



Players stand to gain a lot from -- not -- resigning to a 7-8 year deal that is lucrative to their team when they are coming of their ELC. Crosby is a special case, but he probably left a good 30-40m USD on the table with his deal... Someone like Trouba's career earnings will probably be significantly higher after the route he has taken, compared to what he would have got if he inked the long-term deals Chevy put in front of him.