Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XLIII

[Ola]

I think our line-up would look something like this right now:

Kravy-Ziba-Buch
Kreider-Strome-Kakko
Lemieux-Chytil-Vesey
Names-Howden-Fast
Lias / Boo / Lettieri

Staal-TDA
Skjei-Fox
Smith-Shatty
Pionk / Claesson / Hajak / Rykov

To be honest, I am not sold on that Gorton will be able to move Kreider at the draft. I don’t think it’s a very unlikely scenario that Kreider is kept and then moved at the deadline. Gorton has done that with everyone else. Brooks more or less planted that comment that they would try to solve it before the season started.

My bet is that Gorton will be able to move one player this summer, and that one could be Namestnikov, with us getting a young asset and a contract back. Like Names @50% for Cally and a 1st.

I believe and think that Hajak and Lias should start in HFD. Bring them up when they are flying high down there. Neither has proven enough. I can’t see Rykov being close, no openings, unfortunately a scenario with him being a few weeks in HFD before being on a Aeroflot one-way heading East don’t seem unlikely. That place is awful and Davidson isn’t exactly known for being a man of action. I would be tremendously surprised if he could improve it before September. Gorton don’t have time for the AHL franchise. He has a lot of things on his plate as is and very very little support around him. Greely is gone, Schoney is gone, Barnett and co are still on the paycheck but they are Slats guys.

Pionk is then rotated in and out of the lineup in the same 7D fashion we had last season.

Then my bet is that Kreider, Strome and Smith (!) are traded at the deadline.

Then next summer I think Shatty’s contract is bought out.

 

[Thirty One]

We've heard lots about how the teams in the Final Four don't have the big cap hits. What RangerBoy doesn't want you to know, however, is that the teams aren't build on top 5 draft picks, either. I could only count 4 players among the 4 teams that were drafted by them in the top 10. Two of them aren't even close to driving the bus, either.

Andrei Svechnikov - 2nd overall
Alex Pietrangelo - 4th overall
Haydn Fleury - 7th overall
Logan Couture - 9th overall

 

[TheBloodyNine]

We've heard lots about how the teams in the Final Four don't have the big cap hits. What RangerBoy doesn't want you to know, however, is that the teams aren't build on top 5 draft picks, either. I could only count 4 players among the 4 teams that were drafted by them in the top 10. Two of them aren't even close to driving the bus, either.

Andrei Svechnikov - 2nd overall
Alex Pietrangelo - 4th overall
Haydn Fleury - 7th overall
Logan Couture - 9th overall

Still need to be bad to draft in the top 10. If Blues win tonight Pietrangelo will be the best Dman between both teams. In the last 10 years every team that has won has had at least 1 top 5 pick. Of those 10 years 7 had at least 2 top 5 picks.

You don't need a "top 5 pick." But the team that has them gets there A LOT more often than the teams that don't. I'd rather play the odds.

 

[Thirty One]

Still need to be bad to draft in the top 10. If Blues win tonight Pietrangelo will be the best Dman between both teams. In the last 10 years every team that has won has had at least 1 top 5 pick. Of those 10 years 7 had at least 2 top 5 picks.

You don't need a "top 5 pick." But the team that has them gets there A LOT more often than the teams that don't. I'd rather play the odds.

Yep, not having top 10 picks is the anomaly. As is not having big contracts.

 

[Leetch3]

I agree, yet I think he is the wrong guy, yet it's partially due to his next contract and trade value.

I just don't put him among the upper echelon defenders in terms of being able to do it all.

He is not a gifted puck mover or PP player. His stats tell a story about passing to guys who can carry the puck, and tend to shoot and score a lot. I foresee him on the Rangers as an 8M cap hit defensive defender where the Rangers are going to rather play others if they are needing a goal or on the PP and I just don't see that as assets well traded for or cap money well spent.

he definitely has his flaws and questions, if he didn't he wouldn't be available...but thats also why we should probably hope he goes to arbitration for a 1 year deal to potentially be a UFA next summer over trading a bunch of assets for him

 

[SA16]

It is really remarkable that 15 months into a rebuild, the only acceptable topic of conversation is which aging vet we throw crazy money at. We do not yet know how our kids turn out or even what position many of them will play, but forget rebuilding, we are signing UFAs. Why just limit ourselves to one, Panarin and EK here we come.

I'll re-write the TL;DR summary you posted: "this is still a team with a bunch of question marks and thinking about making a trade for a player like PK to put us back in the playoff picture... you'd be getting way ahead of yourself."

This is not the topic of conversation whatsoever.

The topic of conversation is: Should we sign Panarin?

Not: If we miss out on Panarin should we sign one of the lesser available forwards such as Skinner,Lee,Duchene etc.

I have seen very few people advocating for signing any of the other expensive available forwards.

 

[Kaapo Cabana]

If Zucc doesn't sign with Dallas, I'd look into what it would take to bring him back.

If the term isn't too bad, he would be a good veteran presence to have.

We have a lot of uncertainty and mediocrity in our forward group, and I think he could add some stability for the growth of our youngins.

looking at our forward group (assuming Kreider stays for the sake of argument)

Zib - 1C
Kreider - 1LW
Buchnevich - Top 6 winger (a bit uncertain)
Strome - Bottom 6 C
Namestnikov - Meh utility guy
Fast - perfect 4th liner, kinda fell off last year
Vesey - a warm body
Lemieux - bottom 6 agitator with a bit of skill
Howden - ? showed flashes, slumped hard
Chytil - ? Showed flashes, can he take another step forward?
Andersson - ? a bit further behind the last two. Can he be an NHL player?
Boo - was a decent 4C, but is he

Kravtsov - ?
Kakko - probably a top 6 winger, but never pencil in a rookie

The only things we can really bet on are that we have 2 actual 1st liners, a top 6 winger in Buchnevich, then a bunch of kids, meh, and bad. We will have 5 forwards w/ less than a full NHL season under their belts who will need to be brought along in a decent environment. I only see 2 or 3 solid talented vets that can provide that kind of environment, and two of them will likely be playing on the same line, if not all three.


Best case scenario, Zucc re-signs in Dallas and we look elsewhere, but I really do think we need another Veteran presence (who can actually play).

This is magnified if Kreider is dealt.

 

[Tawnos]

This is not the topic of conversation whatsoever.

The topic of conversation is: Should we sign Panarin?

Not: If we miss out on Panarin should we sign one of the lesser available forwards such as Skinner,Lee,Duchene etc.

I have seen very few people advocating for signing any of the other expensive available forwards.

Yep. Only elite level free agents at the stage of the things. You might think about another middle-6 forward if the Rangers trade 2 wingers around the draft (unlikely), but as things stand now, the only players who qualify are Panarin, Karlsson, and borderline Duchene. There's a general consensus about Karlsson's injury concerns and Duchene not fitting in... but Panarin does make a certain amount of sense from a long-term perspective.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

trouba might not be the right guy, but he's 25. same age as Skjei and almost a year younger than mika... he might be the wrong guy for other reasons but I think he is the perfect age to be a veteran on this team. everyone can't be under 23...

Ziba and Skjei are already on the team. We don't have to give up assets for them. Why would we give up two good assets for a guy who isn't that great currently, and we have no idea how he will age. He could age like Girardi, Staal or Klein, or he could age like Subban or Weber.

The point it two-fold, when we're ready to compete, guys will be available. And the assets we would have to give up today for Trouba, fit the timeline better than he does. I'd rather save those assets and utilize them when we're ready to compete, then spend them on a guy who will be in his late 20's once we're ready.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

We've heard lots about how the teams in the Final Four don't have the big cap hits. What RangerBoy doesn't want you to know, however, is that the teams aren't build on top 5 draft picks, either. I could only count 4 players among the 4 teams that were drafted by them in the top 10. Two of them aren't even close to driving the bus, either.

Andrei Svechnikov - 2nd overall
Alex Pietrangelo - 4th overall
Haydn Fleury - 7th overall
Logan Couture - 9th overall

How many of those teams has a big UFA contract?

Backes is one but he doesn’t play.

 

[Lion Hound]

Maybe one of these days one of the NYR beat writers will pose the question to Gorton or even JD now that he's here.

"Do you plan on being active in the free agency market this summer?"

Would probably answer a lot of our questions

 

[DanielBrassard]

Ziba and Skjei are already on the team. We don't have to give up assets for them. Why would we give up two good assets for a guy who isn't that great currently, and we have no idea how he will age. He could age like Girardi, Staal or Klein, or he could age like Subban or Weber.

The point it two-fold, when we're ready to compete, guys will be available. And the assets we would have to give up today for Trouba, fit the timeline better than he does. I'd rather save those assets and utilize them when we're ready to compete, then spend them on a guy who will be in his late 20's once we're ready.

How is he not that great? He's a #1 defenseman.

 

[SA16]

How many of those teams has a big UFA contract?

Backes is one but he doesn’t play.

How many times do we have to rehash the same conversation that the reason that no top teams have top UFA is because outside of John Tavares last year there has not been any under this CBA? Give it a few years and I bet the conversation completely changes with that when teams with Tavares/Karlsson/Panarin end up in the conference finals.

 

[bobbop]

This is not the topic of conversation whatsoever.

The topic of conversation is: Should we sign Panarin?

Not: If we miss out on Panarin should we sign one of the lesser available forwards such as Skinner,Lee,Duchene etc.

I have seen very few people advocating for signing any of the other expensive available forwards.

This.

The only free agents I would consider if Panarin goes elsewhere are. MZA and Hayes. And that’s only if they are willing to accept a reasonable contract.

 

[Levitate]

I'd agree that it's unlikely to move Kreider at the draft...teams are often more stingy around the draft after they've had time to decide who they want to draft and scout all the players...draft picks are more "real" when you're about to make the pick than when it's 3/4 of the way through the season and you're trying to gear up for a playoff run

 

[Thirty One]

How many of those teams has a big UFA contract?

Backes is one but he doesn’t play.

Scarcely any. The amount of players they combined to acquire through giving up 1st round picks would put RangerBoy in a stress coma, though.

Anyways, my point isn't that we should look to the four teams that won two rounds this year to be our guide, but we shouldn't pick and choose and do it only when seems to confirm what we already want to believe.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Scarcely any. The amount of players they combined to acquire through giving up 1st round picks would put RangerBoy in a stress coma, though.

Anyways, my point isn't that we should look to the four teams that won two rounds this year to be our guide, but we shouldn't pick and choose and do it only when seems to confirm what we already want to believe.

This is fair.

We should be looking to add via trade this summer. I’m not opposed to moving a few assets now.

 

[Off Sides]

he definitely has his flaws and questions, if he didn't he wouldn't be available...but thats also why we should probably hope he goes to arbitration for a 1 year deal to potentially be a UFA next summer over trading a bunch of assets for him

That would be the outcome I lean towards, I think he probably ends up on a 1 year deal, whether through arbitration or just the Jets sign him to about what he'd get anyway by going through with it. Likely leads to either self rent him or sell him next deadline.

As far as UFAs, I'm just not a fan of the long term expensive types. Paying the most in cap space that player will likely ever take up is a dicey proposition in it's own right. Expecting a long term contract to go really well throughout, just adds to my hesitation. The ages involved with UFAs are always going to carry a risk of the back end of that contract being really bad. Make offers but make them on the teams terms, if they take another offer find another way.

I'd be focusing on 2nd and 3rd (if bridged) contracts with the major cap hit signing. Usually buys up the remaining RFA years and some UFA years on top. Almost always the players prime years. After that deal if the player likes it there and it's reciprocal, sometimes they even stay and do not ask for a crazy huge extension.

If the best current player on the team is signed to a good contract, which normally comes out of those 2nd or 3rd (if bridged) contracts which include both RFA and UFA years, even if that was under a lower cap, the next group unless they are far better players at the time of their extensions are going to have a difficult time justifying why they should be paid way more.

Yet if a team is carrying a pure super expensive UFA contract and the players coming up behind him are on par or better than him at the time of their extensions, why would they not ask for similar if not more in compensation? People can use cap percentage all they like, some teams find ways to sign their best players off their entry and bridge deals cheaper than others.

 

[Kaapo Cabana]

what is Simmonds worth at this point in his career?

 

[wafflepadsave]

what is Simmonds worth at this point in his career?

One or two beers.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Scarcely any. The amount of players they combined to acquire through giving up 1st round picks would put RangerBoy in a stress coma, though.

Anyways, my point isn't that we should look to the four teams that won two rounds this year to be our guide, but we shouldn't pick and choose and do it only when seems to confirm what we already want to believe.

Can I pick and choose it if I want us to be a top-10 CF% and xGF% team like those 4 teams?

 

[Leetch3]

Ziba and Skjei are already on the team. We don't have to give up assets for them. Why would we give up two good assets for a guy who isn't that great currently, and we have no idea how he will age. He could age like Girardi, Staal or Klein, or he could age like Subban or Weber.

The point it two-fold, when we're ready to compete, guys will be available. And the assets we would have to give up today for Trouba, fit the timeline better than he does. I'd rather save those assets and utilize them when we're ready to compete, then spend them on a guy who will be in his late 20's once we're ready.

i was responding simply to the idea that he is too old for our window cause he'll be 28-29 before we are good. whether or not he is the right guy or worth the assets is a completely different discussion and something that can be debated. But if you find a 25 year old RHD that is the right guy at the right price then the age isn't an issue

 

[TheBPA]

This is fair.

We should be looking to add via trade this summer. I’m not opposed to moving a few assets now.

One common argument against getting Panarin is that we want to continue to pile up high draft picks. So we don't sign Panarin, but then at the same time we give up assets to bring in a different player? I get that Trouba is a D, he's a little younger than Panarin, etc., but if you know anything about him he's going to have to be P-A-I-D if we want him to stay long term.

I'd much prefer just to sign Panarin who has a lot less question marks to me than Trouba, and otherwise keep the long term assets we have.

If they make end up making both moves, I would also be ok with that. But to just trade for Trouba and at the same time say we're not interested in Panarin because he doesn't fit our window, we want to pile up high draft picks, he's the right player at the wrong time, etc. doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

 

[Thirty One]

Can I pick and choose it if I want us to be a top-10 CF% and xGF% team like those 4 teams?

Yeah, any measure that persists over a long period of time is ok with me.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

One common argument against getting Panarin is that we want to continue to pile up high draft picks. So we don't sign Panarin, but then at the same time we give up assets to bring in a different player? I get that Trouba is a D, he's a little younger than Panarin, etc., but if you know anything about him he's going to have to be P-A-I-D if we want him to stay long term.

I'd much prefer just to sign Panarin who has a lot less question marks to me than Trouba, and otherwise keep the long term assets we have.

If they make end up making both moves, I would also be ok with that. But to just trade for Trouba and at the same time say we're not interested in Panarin because he doesn't fit our window, we want to pile up high draft picks, he's the right player at the wrong time, etc. doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

You can get a younger player on a better contract.

Yes it’s an assets vs no assets to acquire thing, but there’s less risk involved and we can play all the prospects/picks.