Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XLII

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Didn't want to create a new thread, but after people were positive about the previous one, here's the one from yesterday discussing, among other things, Panarin coming to the Rangers (potentially)

I am really curious to hear what you guys think of the intro

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

So who would do:

Hank@50%
Staal@50%

for

[email protected]
Foudy
CBJ 1st in 2020 (or 1st in 21' and 2nd in 22')

CBJ wouldn't do this.

 

[Barnaby]

So who would do:

Hank@50%
Staal@50%

for

[email protected]
Foudy
CBJ 1st in 2020 (or 1st in 21' and 2nd in 22')

Not CBJ

 

[Barnaby]

Not sure if they have room for Panarin.

Maybe not. I'm not sure what Dallas cap structure looks like.

I thought I remembered something about Dallas being a possible destination for Panarin in the past.

I think it makes sense if the money works - Texas is another low tax state. Owner might want to take a swing after a good playoff run. They'd pass on Zucc and keep their 2020 1st.

 

[SA16]

Not one person who knows the game will tell you that a winger is more valuable than a center.

It's just patently untrue.

The point is if the LW1 is worth 3 WAR and the LW30 is worth 1 WAR but the C1 is worth 4 WAR and the C30 is worth 3 WAR the top wing is more valuable to the team than the top center despite being worse in a vacuum. Is this actually the case? I have no idea but throwing it out as false based on centers being more important is just wrong because it is very clear centers are more highly represented among the points leaderboard than wings despite their being fewer of them. This is a statistics matter not a hockey matter.

 

[Avery16]

CBJ wouldn't do this.

I don’t think Hank or Staal would do it either.

 

[Barnaby]

The point is if the LW1 is worth 3 WAR and the LW30 is worth 1 WAR but the C1 is worth 4 WAR and the C30 is worth 3 WAR the top wing is more valuable to the team than the top center despite being worse in a vacuum. Is this actually the case? I have no idea but throwing it out as false based on centers being more important is just wrong because it is very clear centers are more highly represented among the points leaderboard than wings despite their being fewer of them. This is a statistics matter not a hockey matter.

I get what your saying, but I'll respectfully disagree. Center is a more important position and a tougher position to play. Often the most talented players play center growing up, in juniors, and internationally. For instance, if you look at drafts you'll see a lot of players drafted as centers who will wind up transitioning to wing. Obviously, it's not always the case. However, you will almost never see a guy drafted as a wing transition to center. Why? It's more difficult to play. If your best players growing up can stick at center then a drafting team keeps them there.

Also, I have no idea how to calculate it, but I gather that centers probably touch the puck more often and are in the center of the ice so prob get more incidental points. That's just a guess on my part though.

 

[RangerBoy]

Heika: So much depends on what Mats Zuccarello wants to do. He did not want to talk about contract while the season was going on, so we'll see what happens now.

Zuccarello will turn 32 on Sept. 1 and is coming off a four-year contract that averaged $4.5 million a year.

There was speculation that he wanted a five-year extension in New York, but we'll have to wait to see what he's thinking with the Stars.

Zuccarello had 11 points (four goals, seven assists) in 13 playoff games with the Stars and that was while recovering from a broken arm, so he clearly proved he can be a useful player in this lineup. He's a great passer, and the Stars are at their best when they are passing, so the guess is they would very much like him back.

That said, Zuccarello can shop himself to the entire league on July 1, so that has to be a little bit enticing.

Heika: I just don't know if they can get into another six- to eight-year contract, and that's what it would take for Artemi Panarin or Matt Duchene. They have to re-sign Esa Lindell and also think about what it's going to take for Miro Heiskanen in two seasons, so my guess is they will look for shorter-term deals.

I also wonder if they might go into the season with open ice time for younger players, knowing that they could add a player after Christmas if they wanted to. That's one way to get around the long-term free agent deal. If you can develop your kids and add a key veteran late, that might be the new way of doing business in the NHL.

Zuccarello is a cheaper option for the Stars and they already have seen him on their team. They know him. They know how he interacts with their other players. They don't know Panarin. They have huge long term commitments to Seguin and Benn already. That Benn contract is a doozy. They better hope his 53 points is an aberration. He turns 30 this summer. The decline may have started already for Benn. Six more years of Benn at $9.5M. Seguin's 8 year contract extension at $9.85M starts next season. No state income tax in Texas. Seguin's cap hit is $11M in NY.

Kyper said it's his understanding Zuccarello will be re-signing in Dallas. Kyper is also the same guy who reported Hayes to Winnipeg last October which was 4 months before the trading deadline.

 

[BrianLeetch2]

Didn't want to create a new thread, but after people were positive about the previous one, here's the one from yesterday discussing, among other things, Panarin coming to the Rangers (potentially)

I am really curious to hear what you guys think of the intro

Listened to it all and loved the reference to the unlicensed video game Carolina Hurricanes. Great stuff

 

[kovazub94]

This is basically where I'm at. I'd rather the team not go that route, but I can easily see a situation where some (more) good fortune between now and July 1st encourages the Rangers to be more aggressive with Panarin.

If the Rangers can:
- Add a guy like Zegras, Dach, Turcotte, or Newhook who could possibly step in as a pro after a D+1 season.
- Rid themselves of a bad contract on the blue line
- Find the right deal to land a proven RHD upgrade

Then I can see them turning the dial a little bit and saying, "Yeah, we're a little further ahead than we expected to be, so let's offer up that 6th year to Panarin." Or something to that effect.

This but in reverse order is how I see the level of Rangers aggressiveness in pursuit of Panarin increasing.

 

[haohmaru]

So who would do:

Hank@50%
Staal@50%

for

[email protected]
Foudy
CBJ 1st in 2020 (or 1st in 21' and 2nd in 22')

Not Columbus

 

[Ola]

Heika is a good reporter, have always liked him. He makes an interesting observation.
"That's one way to get around the long-term free agent deal. If you can develop your kids and add a key veteran late, that might be the new way of doing business in the NHL." -Heika

A few thoughts:

1. Heika points at a phenomen that is becoming more and more common around the league. You have a roster with 20 players. 14-15 of those will be "depth" players but will still take up a huge chunk of the cap. Its very hard to try to do business nowadays like Pittsburgh did them say a decade ago, with 3-4 ELCs and 3-4 vet guys looking for a 2nd chance willing to pay for free. Depth is too important, Pittsburgh has only won with the best 3rd in hockey and they have Crosby and Malkin leading 1-2. Things have changed. Players get paid early. You know how things will look 1-2 years down the road, but if you have the long-term responsibility you start to get some pretty tricky situations pretty fast. That is what Benning was referring to when he mentioned that his young and cheap roster "soon" would have to get paid a ton, which made everyone freak out since some of these kids like weeks ago signed their ELC.

I believe that it will get clear this summer that very few GMs is in the business of doing each other favors. I looked at the history at nhltradetracker and there were not a single trade made the last two years in which a team took on a half big contract 4+m with 3 or more years left on it, not sure if there was anyone with 3m and 2 years left on it either, without either sweetening the deal giving up assets to take on the contract or a contract going back the other way. Its one thing to trade a contract for a contract, but I think it will be really hard going forward to deal contracts for futures -- even if the underlying player isn't done. We laughed at Carolina getting a 2nd and a 3rd for Skinner, that had one year left on his deal. I don't think its extremely easy to like deal a Perrault with 3 years left for a 4th round pick.

2. Hence you need flexibility at the top of the line-up, because the bottom of the pyramid just isn't that flexible anymore. And it will be really hard to get out it if you paint yourself into a corner...

3. I think sooner rather than later that we will start to see players taking shorter deals. Take any of these guys that resigns long-term in the eve of becoming UFAs. What would they have made if they signed for 2 years at the time instead? They are leaving a lot of money on the table. So few guys face career ending injuries.

 

[Leetch3]

Are any potential good RHD available? Vegas strikes me as a deep team with some NHL-level RD depth and a need to shed salary.

What's the cost on Miller, and would he be worth getting at this stage in the rebuild?

he's an option depending on the price...would prefer if the guy we are bring in was closer to 25 than 27 though

 

[Leetch3]

Gorton needs to commit to the rebuild and trade away a bunch of players to make room for rookies and the sooner he does it the better. There is really no need to have players like Vesey, Strome, Namestnikov, Staal, Shattenkirk, Claesson, etc. on a rebuilding team. These players are neither leading by example or are wise old vets that would help the rookies out, they are just in a way of the rebuild at this point, yet Gorton is trading away our picks instead of finding ways to offload these guys.

on what planet is gorton not commit to the rebuild? he's traded away everything not nailed to the floor besides kreider and thats coming...and to say you shouldn't have any vets and just so you can play all kids isn't how a rebuild works. you need some vets...

if he could move staal, smith and shattenkirk he would

 

[haohmaru]

It's actually not the Rangers bc they are unlikely to be in the playoffs in the first half of his contract.

We'll see about that.

We probably won't, actually. I'd be really surprised if he lands here.

 

[Vitto79]

the Devils wanted Shattenkirk right?........crazy to think they could take him now? they have the cap space

Grabner went to NJ so don't tell me they can't make a deal

 

[Leetch3]

Staal is a buyout.

staal is not a buyout candidate this year...the cap hit is brutal and carries for too many years when we might need the space. next summer the buyout isn't that bad if we need to go that route

 

[LaffyTaffy]

I really believe and also desperately hope Zucc resigns in Dallas.

 

[Avery16]

the Devils wanted Shattenkirk right?........crazy to think they could take him now? they have the cap space

Grabner went to NJ so don't tell me they can't make a deal

A few teams wanted Shattenkirk back when we signed him. Now? Not so much.

 

[haohmaru]

Zuccarello is a cheaper option for the Stars and they already have seen him on their team. They know him. They know how he interacts with their other players. They don't know Panarin. They have huge long term commitments to Seguin and Benn already. That Benn contract is a doozy. They better hope his 53 points is an aberration. He turns 30 this summer. The decline may have started already for Benn. Six more years of Benn at $9.5M. Seguin's 8 year contract extension at $9.85M starts next season. No state income tax in Texas. Seguin's cap hit is $11M in NY.

Kyper said it's his understanding Zuccarello will be re-signing in Dallas. Kyper is also the same guy who reported Hayes to Winnipeg last October which was 4 months before the trading deadline.

The only thing that I think stops Zuccarello from signing in Dallas is if wants to return, a la Brooks' fantasy article, to the Rangers and if there's a reciprocal interest in him here. I don't think there is, as much as I like the guy, and I think he ends up staying put with the Stars.

 

[GAGLine]

the Devils wanted Shattenkirk right?........crazy to think they could take him now? they have the cap space

Grabner went to NJ so don't tell me they can't make a deal

The last 2 years have probably changed a lot of minds about Shattenkirk. And given how the Grabner deal worked out for them, they might be wary of dealing with us again.

Our best bet to dump Shatty, IMO, is to wait until after his signing bonus is paid in July 2020 and then trade him to a cap floor team. 6.65 mil cap hit, 2 mil in real money.

 

[Dijock94]

staal is not a buyout candidate this year...the cap hit is brutal and carries for too many years when we might need the space. next summer the buyout isn't that bad if we need to go that route

I agree with you 100%. Not need to buyout anyone this year. We don’t need the cap space and even if you waited one year the buyout is 2 years as opposed to 4 of dead cap which will gave drastic implications.

 

[True Blue]

One could interpret his comments about accelerating the rebuild as that. How many GM's spell out their plans for the offseason anyway to the public? Plus my post was moreso about your minimizing the amount of people who have mentioned Panarin and UFA in general and how the Rangers will be involved, it wasn't just Brooks reporting on it but a number of credible insiders. Whether it comes to fruition or not remains to be seen.

As Edge said, the credible insiders have been preaching this in the papers since last year. He has done none of it. That includes not trading Hayes. There is absolutely no smoke coming from MSG on any of this. The only people who are pounding this table are your newspaper pundits and fans who want instant gratification. Just my take.

 

[Vitto79]

The last 2 years have probably changed a lot of minds about Shattenkirk. And given how the Grabner deal worked out for them, they might be wary of dealing with us again.

Our best bet to dump Shatty, IMO, is to wait until after his signing bonus is paid in July 2020 and then trade him to a cap floor team. 6.65 mil cap hit, 2 mil in real money.

I agree with that.....just gonna be hard to see Quinn play 3 offensive D, who Pk's out of Shatty, TDA, Fox?

 

[Ola]

The only thing that I think stops Zuccarello from signing in Dallas is if wants to return, a la Brooks' fantasy article, to the Rangers and if there's a reciprocal interest in him here. I don't think there is, as much as I like the guy, and I think he ends up staying put with the Stars.

Or that he is a little stubborn and have made up his mind to not be loyal going forward and just take the highest offer from now on. If he goes to July 1 you never know what will happen.