Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XLI

[Kovalev27]

I think this thing goes 7 really do.

 

[Beacon]

Despite the accelerated pace of this rebuild, Panarin remains a costly luxury for a team not set up to make that kind of commitment when there is still so much that needs to fall into place.

Let's stop calling it an accelerated rebuild and call it what it is: cutting short the rebuild half-way through. Getting a player who is a full decade older than the center of our rebuilding effort (Kakko) and 8-12 years older than our other top first rounders [2017-2021] does not accelerate anything, it cuts short what we've been doing because people would prefer to finish 6-10th in the East from 2019-20 to 2029-30 than to finish at the bottom the next couple of years, draft a couple more top 5/10 prospects and then win potentially multiple Cups in 5-15 years.

 

[Beacon]

We have Strome as our 2C.. And Skjei + ADA as our top pair next season.

Throwing 12-13% of our cap space for a winger seems like a real logical plan.

But you just don't understand: all our prospects will reach their ceiling and do so as teenagers. Kravtsov will score 60 points this year, you know...

 

[I Eat Crow]

Being right versus the Winnipeg pick being one spot higher.

One time I'd happily be wrong.

 

[Beacon]

Well, it’d be nice if they actually found the NEXT Panarin, aka stud late blooming KHL guy that can be had on the cheap for a few years.

If we trade Kreider and sign nobody big, we will likely be top-5 the next 2 drafts in 2020 and 2021. Maybe just top-10, but very possibly top-2.

The odds are pretty good that we can pull a very good player if we draft, say, #4 and #35 in 2020 and #7 and #38 in 2021, plus whatever we get for Kreider, Vesey, Names and Fast. I bet 5 years from now at least 1 of those draftees is better than Panarin will be in 5 years.

 

[TheBPA]

They lost jvr last year as well...and it’s a massive problem this year.

Marleau is just 1 example...as a rangers fan my whole life I’ve seen this play out wrong more times than I can count. This is the wrong time for panarin. Fast forward 2 years...then let’s talk.

I keep seeing this...if having cap space is the argument against signing panarin, then signing a top FA in 2 years makes even less sense. If a panarin level free agent costs 11m this year, they are going to cost closer to 12-13m in 2 years.

 

[Vitto79]

Do not go to the Jets board unless you want to see the single worst trade proposal you'll EVER see LOL

I can come up w some baaaad offers but that one takes the cake !

 

[Beacon]

Our first (2OA), their first (~20OA), pionk, lundkvist, kravtsov, and one of miller, chytil, or andersson for trouba and wheeler LMFAO.

Had to re-read it multiple times. My brain still not processing this.

 

[Avery16]

I keep seeing this...if having cap space is the argument against signing panarin, then signing a top FA in 2 years makes even less sense. If a panarin level free agent costs 11m this year, they are going to cost closer to 12-13m in 2 years.

Its not the argument, its like 1/5 of the argument.

 

[TheBPA]

Its not the argument, its like 1/5 of the argument.

The point is that if your top picks actually play up to those projections you’ll never be able to “augment the core” with a top free agent unless you do it now.

 

[Cag29]

If we trade Kreider and sign nobody big, we will likely be top-5 the next 2 drafts in 2020 and 2021. Maybe just top-10, but very possibly top-2.

The odds are pretty good that we can pull a very good player if we draft, say, #4 and #35 in 2020 and #7 and #38 in 2021, plus whatever we get for Kreider, Vesey, Names and Fast. I bet 5 years from now at least 1 of those draftees is better than Panarin will be in 5 years.

Raymond 2020!

 

[Beacon]

“This isn’t just any player...this is so and so! Aging curves on this type of player are great and players like him don’t come around that often!”


Said about drury, Gomez, redden, Richards, Etc etc etc etc

Signing planarian would be a catastrophic mistake.

Not today...but I can assure you in 5 years from now and we’re in the middle of our prime window and we’ve gotta give some hotshot kid a huge contract but can’t because Marleau...I mean panarin is hanging over our heads.

There are always players like panarin available. Every single year someone like him is either an ufa or traded for peanuts.

No thank you to panarin.

The biggest problem with Panarin isn't merely that he's about a decade older than our core. The biggest real problem is that he's likely to cost us two top-5 picks in 2020 and 2021 without actually giving us a good playoff team.

The worst possible scenario is finishing at the end of the lottery, around pick 14-15. You can call the season a success if you run deep into the playoffs or if you get a kid like Kakko. Panarin will make us too good to get a top prospect, yet not good enough to watch MSG in May.

 

[Avery16]

The point is that if your top picks actually play up to those projections you’ll never be able to “augment the core” with a top free agent unless you do it now.

I don't agree. There will be other opportunities to add big pieces, perhaps closer to our opportunity window, and at less cost. Panarin elevates our core at a time where we aren't competing for anything other than highest draft pick. Once we are ready to compete, he'll be thirty and half way into a guaranteed, unmoveable contract. Its not the right piece at the right time.

 

[Beacon]

I keep seeing this...if having cap space is the argument against signing panarin, then signing a top FA in 2 years makes even less sense. If a panarin level free agent costs 11m this year, they are going to cost closer to 12-13m in 2 years.

Let me explain:

1. Our teenage prospects won't be ready to be good yet.

2. The main value of a star UFA is in his first 2-3 seasons.

3. By signing Panarin now, you're creating a mismatch: when he's good they are not; when they are good, he will very likely at the very least not be worth his cap hit.

4. If you sign a star UFA when Kakko, Chytil, Kravtsov, K'Andre and others are in their mid-20, you create a huge force that hopefully wins the Cup or two the first 3-4 years he's under contract, and then who cares if he's an anchor on the team when he gets older.

5. But if you sign an elite UFA now, we are not winning the Cup when he's still elite... and when the rest of the team catches up, he's an aging, overpaid anchor who prevents the team from winning the Cup.

 

[GoAwayGiannone]

But you just don't understand: all our prospects will reach their ceiling and do so as teenagers. Kravtsov will score 60 points this year, you know...

But YOU dont understand Beacon. This time for SURE will be different. Hes a fitness freak!! No way will he fall off a cliff like the past 8+ have

 

[Beacon]

But YOU dont understand Beacon. This time for SURE will be different. Hes a fitness freak!! No way will he fall off a cliff like the past 8+ have

Here's a 2007 Daily Snooze article explaining why Drury and Gomez are very different from other UFAs and how they are wonderful signings who will make the Rangers "Beasts of the East."

Chris Drury, Scott Gomez make Rangers beasts of East

"neither player is on the downside of his career as so many a past Rangers free-agent savior has been."

See, this time it's different!

 

[Avery16]

Here's a 2007 Daily Snooze article explaining why Drury and Gomez are very different from other UFAs and how they are wonderful signing who will make the Rangers "Beasts of the East."

Chris Drury, Scott Gomez make Rangers beasts of East

"neither player is on the downside of his career as so many a past Rangers free-agent savior has been."

See, this time it's different!

https://nypost.com/2002/07/02/hes-bway-bobby-holik-rangers-agree-on-5-yr-45m-contract/

 

[GoAwayGiannone]

A funny picture I was reminded of.

 

[SA16]

“This isn’t just any player...this is so and so! Aging curves on this type of player are great and players like him don’t come around that often!”


Said about drury, Gomez, redden, Richards, Etc etc etc etc

Signing planarian would be a catastrophic mistake.

Not today...but I can assure you in 5 years from now and we’re in the middle of our prime window and we’ve gotta give some hotshot kid a huge contract but can’t because Marleau...I mean panarin is hanging over our heads.

There are always players like panarin available. Every single year someone like him is either an ufa or traded for peanuts.

No thank you to panarin.

I don't understand your comparison.

Drury was 31 when the Rangers signed him.
Gomez was 28 and was very good in his time here. He put similar numbers as he did in NJ outside of the outlier 05-06 season for everyone. He did fall off in MTL but he had the problem of being very one dimensional with a terrible shot. Any loss to his skating or his passing and he would become nothing.
Redden was considered a horrible signing immediately and a lot of people thought he wasn't any good in general let alone for the money. He was also 31.
Richards was 31 when the Rangers signed him
Five years from now Panarin will be 32 years old. Marleau scored 30 goals and 64 points at age 32. He then scored 33 goals and 70 points at age 34.

Also none of the players you mentioned fit in the "Aging curves are different for this type of player." I ran those numbers two weeks ago. None of the players you mentioned met the criteria. In any case in Richards last (bad) year with the Rangers he still put up 51 points in 82 games in a much lower scoring environment. Couldn't play defense though.

 

[DutchShamrock]

I keep seeing this...if having cap space is the argument against signing panarin, then signing a top FA in 2 years makes even less sense. If a panarin level free agent costs 11m this year, they are going to cost closer to 12-13m in 2 years.

The goal isn't to sign the top UFA at any given time. The goal is to develop your own stars. If we are going the Tavares or Gaborik route, we failed to acquire adequate players before hand. If missing out on Panarin compromises my chances signing the next top UFA, I'm doubling down on patience and sticking to the plan.

 

[pld459666]

For me, term is the bigger issue. I think Kreider could sign for 4. No way Panarin signs for fewer than 6.

No shot Kreider signs for 4 years.

 

[Kravtsov420]

What happens if Kakko basically needs no adjustment period and hits the ground running right off the bat during all 3 of his ELC years and has some 75-80 point seasons? That extension right there would be 80 million dollars. What happens if Kravtsov has somewhat of a similar performance as Kakko in the 60-70 point range by the end of his ELC? That would be another really expensive contract. The cap is going up but probably not at the rate that everyone is expecting it to, every year there's a statement at the end of the year saying "the cap isn't going up as much once previously thought". Remember when the cap stagnated for a few years back? Some people on here want to pay 11 million for Panarin and have a buyout or 2 where that would be about 8 million or more in dead cap space next year. I think maintaining flexibility at this time is important and finding out what we have now is even way more important than that.

Never said anything about a buyout, but as I said, there are several ways to rid themselves of cap space aka trading Kreider. In my opinion it’s a choice between the two and I pick Panarin 10 times out of 10.

 

[Avery16]

No shot Kreider signs for 4 years.

Ok then trade him.

 

[Avery16]

Never said anything about a buyout, but as I said, there are several ways to rid themselves of cap space aka trading Kreider. In my opinion it’s a choice between the two and I pick Panarin 10 times out of 10.

There is no Kreider/Panarin choice. The cap space issue isn’t Kreider, it isn’t Smith/Shattenkirk/Lundqvist/Staal. They will all be gone, or in Hank’s case possibly on an affordable backup contract.
The capspace issue will be all our kids coming off their ELCs and an over-the-hill and unmoveable Panarin still in the first half of the contract a lot of people on here want to sign him to. And us with zero Cups, zero additional top-ten picks to show for it.

 

[FIRE DRURY]

11M dollars a year. Long term. With limited movement options.

Forget whether you’re pro rebuild, or the alternative. Forget about what our needs are now and what they might be in the future.

I ultimately don’t think Panarin is worth 11M a year for the next 7 years..

If we’re investing more than 10% of our teams cap space on 1 player, I want someone better than Panarin.

I realize what the cap is now and how that impacts contracts.. But at the end of the day I just don’t see him being worthy of that kind of contract.