Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XIV (To trade or not to trade is the question)

[IDvsEGO]

On the other hand, goalies play an entire game and aren't used in shifts like skaters are. A starting goalie's icetime per game will be 3x any 1C. Theoretically, they play more than anyone else on the team.

If they save 1 goal above expected every game, it's equivalent to a 90 point season of a forward.

They are also the most important penalty killers on the team.

They are also involved in every shootout round where a 1C is only involved in a single shootout attempt.

I'd argue they could be just as gamebreaking and impactful as a 1C if hot.

Correct
in 2022-23 Mcdavid played all 82 games. He had 1835 minutes
in 2022-23 Shesty played 58 games (his highest season). he had 3488 minutes.

 

[Peltz]

We almost lost that game and y'all sound happy. I didn't watch fully because I have cable.

It was their best game in a while.

I think having Trouba away from the team also just makes the team more defensively responsible by default. Plus having the several day break - it's clear they worked on stuff.

 

[kovazub94]

Obtuse.

The best center affects the game much more than a goalie does. He makes those around him better. Much more important.

Haha. Especially from the bench where even the best spend more than 1/2 of the game

 

[IDvsEGO]

It was their best game in a while.

I think having Trouba away from the team also just makes the team more defensively responsible by default. Plus having the several day break - it's clear they worked on stuff.

Which is hilarious because Mancini did not have a good game, and might've been worse than trouba.

But the Mika line was stifling defensively and every line except the 4th was above 50% xgf.

 

[Bacon Artemi Bravo]

We almost lost that game and y'all sound happy. I didn't watch fully because I have cable.

A win is a win bud. It’s the national hockey league and you can’t expect the team to go from lifeless and losing every game straight to utter and complete domination overnight

 

[Alluckks]

Got a feeling Tkachuk ends up here, if not in season then in the off season. Lafreniere not going anywhere. His name was used to add in the subtext messaging to the team and anyone can be moved so start playing like you care. Drury has a type of player that he likes. Trocheck, Laf, Edstrom, Berard, Othmann, Schneider, etc. all fit that mold. Tkachuk fits right in that exact same way. Supplement that with your big stars like Panarin, Fox, and Igor.

So then look at who isn't a star, and then who doesn't fit that mold. Tells you who needs to go. Miller, Kakko, Zibs eventually all really stand out to me.

 

[Priorae]

I’m a little surprised no one is knocking on our door about Quick

 

[McRanger92]

I'd stay away for Miller unless it's like for something like Chytil/Smith/1st.

The guy's clearly a loose cannon and volatile; D'Angelo without the political stuff.

Tony D doesnt put up 90 pts a year. Get JT out of Canada and Im sure hell be fine.

 

[IDvsEGO]

Tony D doesnt put up 90 pts a year. Get JT out of Canada and Im sure hell be fine.

"I can fix him she said"
Despite him repeatedly having issues in multiple locations including NYC.

 

[kovazub94]

Correct
in 2022-23 Mcdavid played all 82 games. He had 1835 minutes
in 2022-23 Shesty played 58 games (his highest season). he had 3488 minutes.

Now translate it into shot for per min for C vs shots against per min for G. Anti-goalie argument as a concept is ridiculous.

 

[McRanger92]

Got a feeling Tkachuk ends up here, if not in season then in the off season. Lafreniere not going anywhere. His name was used to add in the subtext messaging to the team and anyone can be moved so start playing like you care. Drury has a type of player that he likes. Trocheck, Laf, Edstrom, Berard, Othmann, Schneider, etc. all fit that mold. Tkachuk fits right in that exact same way. Supplement that with your big stars like Panarin, Fox, and Igor.

So then look at who isn't a star, and then who doesn't fit that mold. Tells you who needs to go. Miller, Kakko, Zibs eventually all really stand out to me.

The Tkachuk stuff this year is going to mirror Nash in 2012 if the Sens dont improve. The way the Sens reacted to the mere statement that "Brady Tkachuk has become the Rangers top target" gives viability to this imo. Friedman said the teams were quietly talking in 32T. Vince said the same thing as Larry the day before but no one takes him seriously so it didnt start a media firestorm. I think the Rangers are in position to overpay for Tkachuk before his NMC kicks, and Brady's camp now knows if he wants out the Rangers have a spot of honor for him on their team ready to go. Ready made core with Laf/Fox/Igor locked in.

We have the ammo to do it between Kreider, Miller, Chytil, Kakko, Lindgren and, yes, Perreault, if it comes to that. Drury needs to make his big move and I think this is it. He's 0/2 so far.

 

[zlev]

im not giving up on this team until i see what they can do with 3 NHL defense pairs. the forwards are fine, the top two lines had their best game in 6 weeks without Trouba flopping around all night.

 

[IDvsEGO]

Now translate it into shot for per min for C vs shots against per min for G. Anti-goalie argument as a concept is ridiculous.

How about goals saved above expectation...
Vs shots for and against if you want to compare.

Igor has consistently saved above expectation.
He also does it in the playoffs.

You do need a team around him, but at the same time, he's kept this team in the running by alot.

 

[McRanger92]

"I can fix him she said"
Despite him repeatedly having issues in multiple locations including NYC.

No one cares about your politics if you're winning games. We dont even know thats the issue. Just an anonymous rumor on a message board. Hot take: Im still interested in JT Miller even if he *gasp* voted for Trump lol

 

[Fitzy]

No one cares about your politics if you're winning games. We dont even know thats the issue. Just an anonymous rumor on a message board. Hot take: Im still interested in JT Miller even if he *gasp* voted for Trump lol

He could have voted for Gloria La Riva for all I care. He isn’t a good idea. Too much baggage. When defensemen like Gustafsson are available for free, why attract another sideshow media circus.

Even if we think it was worth it, he only makes sense as a PPQB and no one has the guts to demote Fox from that role

 

[McRanger92]

Berard skating in a regular jersey. Is this the end of Reilly Smith? Tbh, I think Smith will be missed if he's gone. Id rather scratch Vesey, who has been a non-factor all year. He seems cooked.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I think the Canucks morale lifting after JT went away is kind of a major red flag.

Do we really want to deal with that? I think it’s a worthy risk if Zibanejad goes the other way (would have to be more) but beyond that? Ehhhh.

 

[Mr Mxyzptlk]

I admit it -- I don't get the reference

 

[HFsNumber1Heel]

No one cares about your politics if you're winning games. We dont even know thats the issue. Just an anonymous rumor on a message board. Hot take: Im still interested in JT Miller even if he *gasp* voted for Trump lol

I never said JT's issues had anything to do with politics. Only making the comparison that he's just as much of a loose cannon as D'Angelo only WITHOUT the political stuff. It's personal for him.

The guy had issues for USA Hockey (Joe even talked about during Rangers broadcasts), issues in Plymouth, issues in NY, issues in Tampa, and now apparently issues in Vancouver. He's a hothead with a bad temper who has clashed with teammates and management on multiple occasions. You can get married or get a mature haircut like Del Zotto or wear fancy suits, but if you have issues everywhere you go, at some point it's you.

Tony D doesnt put up 90 pts a year. Get JT out of Canada and Im sure hell be fine.

Tony D had 50+ points at one point in NY. What makes Vancouver so different from NY? Because we have great pizza, some Frank Sinatra song, and the Yankees won a lot of championships at various points?

 

[SA16]

Correct
in 2022-23 Mcdavid played all 82 games. He had 1835 minutes
in 2022-23 Shesty played 58 games (his highest season). he had 3488 minutes.

Additionally, in 2023-24 Peter Laviolette coached for 4.,974 minutes so he must then be even more important than the Center and Goalie.

 

[HFsNumber1Heel]

Berard skating in a regular jersey. Is this the end of Reilly Smith? Tbh, I think Smith will be missed if he's gone. Id rather scratch Vesey, who has been a non-factor all year. He seems cooked.

Smith's been fine and on pace for what he usually does. Clutch goal last night.

Berard can replace Kakko if he's dealt for D help.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Tony D doesnt put up 90 pts a year. Get JT out of Canada and Im sure hell be fine.

Tony D about to put up 90 this season for SKA!

 

[Alluckks]

The Tkachuk stuff this year is going to mirror Nash in 2012 if the Sens dont improve. The way the Sens reacted to the mere statement that "Brady Tkachuk has become the Rangers top target" gives viability to this imo. Friedman said the teams were quietly talking in 32T. Vince said the same thing as Larry the day before but no one takes him seriously so it didnt start a media firestorm. I think the Rangers are in position to overpay for Tkachuk before his NMC kicks, and Brady's camp now knows if he wants out the Rangers have a spot of honor for him on their team ready to go. Ready made core with Laf/Fox/Igor locked in.

We have the ammo to do it between Kreider, Miller, Chytil, Kakko, Lindgren and, yes, Perreault, if it comes to that. Drury needs to make his big move and I think this is it. He's 0/2 so far.

It is very similar to Nash.

And very similar to Nash the team that has the star player that wants out to the Rangers is doing everything they can to tell their fans "everything is fine, it's all bullshit" because they struggle to generate revenue and get butts in the seats as is. But it is also for that reason that this shit drags out. The GM knows, especially from the higher ups, that they care more about the appearance of the team and direction rather than the actual performance of the team. They can't appear to their own fans as a team that got worked over by their own star player demands.

Miller, Kakko, 1st and then add a prospect.

Sens are certainly asking for Laf, Schneider, Perrault in some combination right now.

Same song and dance as with Nash. Give us Kreider and McDonagh, turns into Dubinsky and Anisimov.

 

[JohnC]

Just gonna enjoy this until Drury ruins it by giving Igor a ridiculous contract with the money he just freed up.

Very sad you manifested this into existence Tricks Jews

 

[bernmeister]

All the crapulence that needs to go, and I continue to see trade Kreider here, and, more upsettingly, that Drury is leaning in that direction.

Chris, since you apparently need the help, consider the following, bern's blueprint, to be a guideline you should respect.
(notice cap largely balances out incl in 3 way!....)

Per my usual, best hope for at least 1 if not multiple cups = EXTEND the window
this means deal vets for youth, few exceptions notwithstanding.

The out of nowhere Zib meltdown has complicated things with great negative forces. Even a premium payment to remove him must be acceptably profitable to a trade partner and that is not readily visible other than gutting nyr to an intolerable degree.


1. Rs-‘nucks
VAN has just over 6 in cap space. Understandably want to keep JTM; that said, while he is out, they are short. Also need D w/Hronek out. Rs need pivots and cap space. So here is the offer:
take prospect Sykora for the more available bottom 6 C Raty
take Robertson for injured expiring Forbort
take Jones for Juulsen
of these Forbort is highest paid 1.5, everybody else < 1 roughly cancels out
and we throw in Zib max retained reduced 8.5 to 4.25
ballpark cap dif is 3.75-ish hit to VAN

Further detail:
Raty [elc expiring -> rfa] > Sykora [3 yrs elc remaining] right now but ‘nucks can spare him.
LD Robertson has size etc but has not been properly developed; they kept not giving him a chance, yet resigned him this season, what does that say? But Forbort is expiring, older so it is a possibly useful body for an unavailable one.
I always liked Juulsen and give him full props for coming back after his early injury history. Jones is young, not big at 6'0 but fast, fluid skater and can play either side.

All in all a small +.
So why accommodate on Zib? Risk-reward. You are gambling that there appears to be no physical damage, the issue is he suddenly snakebit in an ongoing funk. Howev, if he was playing with his fellow Swede pal and not under the same pressure to not produce as 1C [that’s JTM when he returns], he will perform sufficiently in top 6. And again, we think there is no issue w/JTM but this is a useful stopgap while JT is out, possibly insurance if there is something we are unaware of. And worst case here for ‘nucks, they have to attach 1.5ish or so to move him to a cap floor club.

For Rs, we are looking at 4.5 structural cap recovery. Juulsen ok bottom pair. Raty fine to build with at position of need. Forbort, if he returns, is 3LD, depth after selling Lindgren


2. Rs - Sens-Devs
Devs get: from OTT: Tkachuk from NY: Panarin 5.6+ ret. to 6 x 2
Devs give: to OTT: Palat, Mercer, Haula, Nemec
to NY: rights to Silayev NJ 2026 2nd + NJ 2027 1st
ballpark 2024 cap
out: Palat 6, Mercer 4, Haula 3.1, Nemec elc <1, (rounded to 1) = 14.1
in: Tkachuk 8.2, Panarin 6 = 14.2
cap result virtually even

Sens get: from NJ : Palat, Mercer, Haula, Nemec
from NY: LaF + Fox + Gabe Perreault
Sens give: to NJ : Tkachuk to NY: Sanderson + Batherson + Pinto + Kleven + Grieg
ballpark 2024 cap
out: Tkachuk 8.2, Sanderson 8+, Batherson, 4.9+, Pinto 3.7, Kleven* elc < 1 + Grieg * elc < 1
in: Palat 6, Mercer 4, Haula 3.1, Nemec elc <1, (rounded to 1)
LaF 2.3* + Fox 9.5 + Gabe Perreault elc <1, (rounded to 1)
{* LaF extension next yr kicks in 7.4+; Kleven and Grieg are rounded}
above = 14.1 from NJ + 12.8 from NY = 26.9 total in
above = 8.2 to NJ + 18.6 to NY = 26.8 total in
cap result virtually even

Rs get: from NJ : rights to Silayev NJ 2026 2nd + NJ 2027 1st
from Sens: Sanderson, Batherson, Pinto, Kleven, Grieg
Rs give: to NJ : Panarin 5.6+ ret. to 6 x 2 to Sens: LaF, Fox, Gabe P
ballpark 2024 cap
out: Panarin* 6 + LaF 2.3* + Fox 9.5 + Gabe P elc <1, (rounded to 1) = 18.8
in: Sand. 8+, Bath. 4.9+, Pinto 3.7, Kleven, Grieg both rounded 1@ = 18.6
cap result virtually even

*ny continues to eat 5.6+ cap this season + next retained salary on bread

Rationale(s)
Jersey upgrades status to legit contender. No waiting on Tkachuk. Add season and a half of retained bread makes F group formidable. Loss of RD prospects = wince, but Nemec atm in the A and Silayev not even signed atm.

Sens swap high end first pair, but add RD in process, further RD with Nemec. LaF = huge fan get, local kid 1OA. Gabe P similar, huge upside ready next yr mitigates loss of Fs. Higher end salary out, useful pieces in. Surrender of Kleven is a wince and both Pinto + Grieg makes pivot thin, but that is short term. Overall, good value and a win going forward.

Rs get 1LD anchor in Sanderson albeit for a high price. Pinto + Kleven are keepers. + Grieg and Batherson flipped usefully


3. NYR-LAK
While surrender of Byfield is a major concession, Kings win this deal, but it is still a fit for Rs.

Shesty now 5.6+ end of season, extension 11.5 x 8 kicks in next season, no NMC effective this season can be dealt now.
Rs eat 2m per effective immediately so Ks get him 2.6 + now, and only 9.5 per going forward x 8
Add elc -> rfa Grieg, a late 1st round pivot elc is < 1
add dynamic W Batherson, 4.9+ per

for

Byfield + LD prospect Jakub Dvorak, elc, 870k x 3 + 2026 LAK 1st + 2027 LAK 2nd

Now there is too much on the plate for Kings to refuse. Obv Byfield is heir to Kopitar and now that has to have plan b alternate, but Ks still have good pivot depth and too many issues solved by this to decline.

The above 3 for Byfield + futures

cap picture is
Byfield, 6.25 balance of rfa yrs (4 seasons after this) + Dvorak, elc, 870k = 7.12
vs
Shesty’s current 5.6 -2 = 3.6, + Bath 4.9 + Grieg <1 = roughly just under 9.5
LA has sufficient cap space


deal Lindgren, Vesey, Smith maybe later Carrick (depth for now)

result

Kreider - Byfield - Berard [although I am tempted to try all big w/KK]
Pinto - Tro - Othmann
Cuylle - Chytil/Raty/Brodz - Kakko
Edstrom - Brodz/Raty -Rempe

forward depth = enough there ^ but usual suspects in the A if nec

Sanderson - Schneider
KAM - Kleven
Dumoulin - Mancini/Juulsen
Forbort, if/when he plays again

marinating: Silayev, Dvorak, Fortescue, Emery

usual suspects for LD depth: Scanlin/Harpur/Mackey/Ruhwedel
Rasmus Larsson and Hank Kempf may be close enuf for cup of coffee if available


G: Garand reinforced Quick + Domingue