Speculation: Roster Building Thread: Part XIII

[Ola]

No, this ain't it, chief.

And analytics are not "wild theories" and lol "corsi-scouting" is such a simplified way of thinking about analytics.

Hahaha your head must be so deep into the sand that it makes me think of that old movie, Journey to the Center of the Earth.

And wild theories? Come on, it was/is certainly a very wild theory to believe that Corsi-Scouting -- ie that CF%, rel or not, of a player gives you a clear picture of how good that player is -- was as reliable as stated. All coaches had no idea what they were doing, because they didn't understand the numbers. Nobody in the hockey community did. Some guy at Twitter called Manny was the only source. Go back and read what was written, the analysis, its a total total farce.

Facts are, when a player change team his metrical foot-print change over night. If the metrical foot print revealed how good a player was, period, then the metrical foot-print would NOT change 180 over night when the same player changed team, unless a player instantly became a lot better or worse the second they changed teams. Are you really arguing that?

 

[Mikos87]

It's interesting, the spring before Pionk signed with the Rangers, I posted that Pionk would be the most important UFA the Rangers could sign.

Not because he was going to be a special player, but because I thought he would be a right shot puck moving NHL defenseman.

The singly focused assessment of players on these boards aside, my issues with Pionk were that he can't defend well against players with size and speed, regardless of their standing in the opposition line up. 1st or 4th line. In other words, you couldn't shelter his minutes versus his short comings.

But skating with the puck, and with the puck on his stick he's a very effective defenseman. In other words, if you are looking for a defenseman who can complete their job description at both ends of the ice, Pionk is not the guy.

Now going back to the first line in the post- Pionk did end up being the most important UFA signing for the Rangers when he did, because he helped acquire a legitimate number 1 all situations right shot d.

Does Pionk have anything to do with Trouba not lining up against McDavid and Draisaitl in the EDM? No. Trouba's deployment, and limited success is on the coaching staff.

Just like how the Rangers former coaching staff put Keith Yandle- a guy who has lead the league in PP assists, on the 2nd pair after giving up a small fortune get him. Does Keith Yandle help FLA have a top PP unit? Yes. Is he older than he was with the Rangers? Yes. Did his skills regress on the PP? No. Did the Rangers coaching staff handicap themselves with Yandle's usage on the PP? Yes.

Why? There is no logical reason.

Just like there is no logical reason as to why Trouba isn't getting front-line matchups night in and night out. I mean, it's not like Trouba played that role to great success for the last 3 years in the WPG right?

What does Pionk have to do with this. Nothing at this point, other than he was just the trade bait that got Trouba. What I'm getting at is, you can't draw apples to apples conclusions when the team's management staff isn't using their own players in the optimal situation. This has been a problem and it is going to be a problem.

 

[Ola]

Certain schemes/situations work better for some blueliners than others. We've known this for time immemorial.

Part of Girardi/Staal's struggles were decline, but a big part of it was the change in system from Torts to AV. Had Sauer still been playing here, I suspect he would have had the same problem.

Getting the right defenseman for the system is key. Winnipeg at least early on seems to have found a player in Pionk who fits their schemes pretty well.

Certainly, and Pionk is of course -- not -- perfect. He was a young fresh kid playing on a worthless team facing the best of the other team on a night by night basis, and especially started to struggle more and more as the season went on.

At the same time, we have as a team not been able to stand up against the top lines in the Metro/East since Kreider-Step-Nash-McD-Klein did it, and it was only really for one year.

Why is that? Its simple, those top lines around us are darn good. To match what they do, we must have a unit of players that together can play really really good hockey. We cannot just look at each and every player that have been handled that assignment, and lost the battle for possession, and say that they all are the worst ever.

IMO, there was no basis to come to the conclusion that Pionk was a worthless player for us last season. AV played him a ton, DQ played him a ton -- for a reason. Was his CF% proof of him being a totally worthless player and that our coaches was tremendously incompetent for not seeing it? Lol, to make a long story short, no it wasn't.

 

[Lua]

No, this ain't it, chief.

And analytics are not "wild theories" and lol "corsi-scouting" is such a simplified way of thinking about analytics.

There is certainly an extremely vocal crowd here that applies these metrics in a simplistic and unnuanced manner, so it makes perfect sense to me to dismiss these takes with equally simplified language

"I didn't watch the game, but x was terrible" - an actual quote

I get the impression that certain posters exclusively voice opinions that can be supported by metrics so they can never be proved wrong, and if someone disagrees on the basis of observation it's easy for them to laugh it away with an "eye test is notoriously unreliable" comment, but maybe that's just the cynic in me talking.

 

[Mikos87]

Still disgusted that we gave Ottawa one of their top scorers, retained salary, and all we got was this lousy 4th and an AHL goon.

Haha. I'm going to say I sense sarcasm here.

What I will say is this. The Names deal helps the Rangers out in more ways than one.

• You got fair market value, the same value you would get at the trade deadline. It's an OTT 4th, that's like getting a late 3rd from a contender, where talking a difference of 6-7 spots in the draft.
• You moved a guy you weren't going to keep, and the Rangers at the time had options for their call-ups in Chytil and Kravstov. It's only 1 now, because Kravstov went back to Russia. I know he can be called up at any time, but we'll see what happens.
• The most important piece is this: You cleared cap space.

Right now there are 13 teams in the league that are banking on LTIR for cap room. 9 of them see themselves as contenders.

Take this with a grain of salt if you must, but from what I've heard, those teams are looking to make trades to clear cap space. 5 of those 9 teams are imo cup contenders, who will run into roster issues.

All 13 of them are in a place where if they get hit with injuries, that they will have to ice a shorter roster.

It's early in the season, and hasn't happened yet, but that is where they find themselves.

Nearly the entire league banked on the cap being $1.5M higher. That lack of a buffer is costly for hockey operations.

 

[Irishguy42]

Pionk was trash analytically and by the eye test with Rangers. It really isn't that difficult to come to the conclusion and say he was a bad player in his tenure here.

And to think that people here were shitting on him solely for CF% is laughable. What's more laughable is the people who defended him by saying things akin to "he's used a lot, so that must mean he's good."

We're done here.

 

[Ola]

Certain schemes/situations work better for some blueliners than others. We've known this for time immemorial.

Part of Girardi/Staal's struggles were decline, but a big part of it was the change in system from Torts to AV. Had Sauer still been playing here, I suspect he would have had the same problem.

Getting the right defenseman for the system is key. Winnipeg at least early on seems to have found a player in Pionk who fits their schemes pretty well.

Exactly.

And I also think its sometimes important to look at it from the team perspective. Is a player deployed poorly because his deployment is not optimal for the player in question? Of course not, right. This is a team game and all that matters is what is best for the team.

But when we do what we do so many times at this place, discussing directly or indirectly how a team will be affected by acquiring or disposing of a player -- we must change perspective and try to evaluate how much a single player really affect the team, any team or our team, depending on the perspective.

That is of course tremendously hard. And just looking at a few simplistic counts resulting in CF% alone won't adjust for it.

 

[Avery16]

I’m really not you said decisions have to be made this season. I’m wholeheartedly disagreeing with that. You’ve got plenty of time

Find where I said a decision has to be made this season.

 

[SA16]

Certain schemes/situations work better for some blueliners than others. We've known this for time immemorial.

Part of Girardi/Staal's struggles were decline, but a big part of it was the change in system from Torts to AV. Had Sauer still been playing here, I suspect he would have had the same problem.

Getting the right defenseman for the system is key. Winnipeg at least early on seems to have found a player in Pionk who fits their schemes pretty well.

This is always the problem. Why do we need the right defenseman to fit the system instead of the coach adjusting his system to fit the players on the team?

 

[Kovalev27]

Find where I said a decision has to be made this season.

i mean again your exact words were a decision needs to be made this year or next.

I said you have at least two years before you need to start worrying about this.

I’m not sure what you want from me here lol

 

[gravey9]

With more time, we will come to understand Pionk's numbers and the rest of the D's numbers last year as a product of the system employed. With the complete lack of depth on the roster we never bothered to clamp down and play more defensively. As both Shatty and Pionk have started to prove this year, if you put them in the right situations their numbers get better. Pionk has been deployed more appropriately in WPG and his looked quite steady so far. He doesn't need to run around in his own zone like he did last year. A good structure is a very helpful development tool -- just like Hartford is proving this year.

 

[Fitzy]

The Trouba trade was still a good one. We needed a true #1D and, despite some posters concerns, Trouba certainly looks like one.

The prospect depth at defense is also exceptional, so we likely won't need to go to the UFA well for any 1-5 blueliners any time in the near future.

So for me, showing regret over Pionk or even less Shattenkirk is sort of pointless. What the team needs now is successful young forwards to help with secondary scoring and balance. Chytil, Howden, Andersson, Kakko, and how they develop has big implications for what kind of young players/prospects we should be looking for in a return for a potential Kreider/Skjei trade. A Skjei for Nylander thread has been around like every month for the past year.

Also, Fox strikes me as the kind of player who could adjust with time to the left side relatively easily. So the matter of a Miller or Keane forcing their way into the NHL over the next 2-3 years doesn't greatly concern me.

 

[aufheben]

Pionk was always worse than people thought he was. Good for him that he's playing well so far in WPG. Let's see if it continues. It certainly did not here.

Just to add to this: who cares anyway?

 

[bobbop]

The ice is awful, part of the outdoor game so hard to read a guy in this type of game.

Actually, the players said the ice was Excellent, better than most NHL rinks

 

[Ola]

Pionk was trash analytically and by the eye test with Rangers. It really isn't that difficult to come to the conclusion and say he was a bad player in his tenure here.

And to think that people here were ****ting on him solely for CF% is laughable. What's more laughable is the people who defended him by saying things akin to "he's used a lot, so that must mean he's good."

We're done here.

He was certainly not trash by the eye test, that is ridiculous. Hence why he also was used by far the most of all our Ds on most night before Christmas. Its of course relevant that two NHL coaches used this D that is supposed to be "trash" as their No 1 D. Not saying that it should settle any discussion, but I do fail to see why its "laughable" to bring that up.

Especially early he was our top defender on most nights, I don't really see how that even can be debated. He certainly tackled off some after Christmas, but that is normal with kids.

I think its extremely far-fetched to claim that he was "trash" for us. But that is what you get if you believe that CF% tells the full picture of a player and then projects it on what you see on the ice. You need to learn sometime that it don't work lol. I mean -- what more proof of this do you need than what I am providing you with right now??? Like seriously.

 

[Avery16]

i mean again your exact words were a decision needs to be made this year or next.

I said you have at least two years before you need to start worrying about this.

I’m not sure what you want from me here lol

From you, I’ll settle for accurate quotes.

 

[Ola]

Just to add to this: who cares anyway?

I'll care when the same element decides that Trouba is trash and it trickles down through the twitter world and becomes a "truth" that he is one of the worst defenders in the world and starts being booed with 5 years left on his contract.

 

[JCProdigy]

Kakko, when I've tried to ISO him on shifts, it's definitely been evident, multiple times, that he's gassed out faster than is line-mates and headed off awkwardly like Bambi's first time on the ice. Ya know the look, like when you are playing a pick-up game and only 12 skaters show up and you end up being on the ice for seven minutes before you can jump off for the one sub and you are almost tripping over your own feet on the way to the bench.

I actually don't think it's his conditioning but his adrenaline/nerves in trying to prove himself. You see it happen with MMA fighters a lot. Conditioned wonderfully in training but then get out there against a guy trying to kill you and blown up in 1 min.

Kakko def seems like a guy who is hard on himself. I'm not too worried about it as I believe with time, he'll settle down. I wouldn't doubt the staff see the same on the bench so just bringing this aspect up.

 

[SA16]

He was certainly not trash by the eye test, that is ridiculous. Hence why he also was used by far the most of all our Ds on most night before Christmas. Its of course relevant that two NHL coaches used this D that is supposed to be "trash" as their No 1 D. Not saying that it should settle any discussion, but I do fail to see why its "laughable" to bring that up.

Especially early he was our top defender on most nights, I don't really see how that even can be debated. He certainly tackled off some after Christmas, but that is normal with kids.

I think its extremely far-fetched to claim that he was "trash" for us. But that is what you get if you believe that CF% tells the full picture of a player and then projects it on what you see on the ice. You need to learn sometime that it don't work lol. I mean -- what more proof of this do you need than what I am providing you with right now??? Like seriously.

He was on the ice for 38 goals for an 57 goals against. He had 3 primary points at 5v5 for the entire season. How was he our number one defender? Also that same coach that supposedly played him as the 1D gave Marc Staal the same amount of 5v5 TOI as him so I'm not sure what the coaching usage is supposed to tell you.

He's a very good skater. That's about it. He's not a good passer and he doesn't have a good shot. There are some things that he does poorly that should be able to be fixed by good coaching (since as incessantly playing the puck out of the zone off the boards).

 

[wafflepadsave]

Haha. I'm going to say I sense sarcasm here.

What I will say is this. The Names deal helps the Rangers out in more ways than one.

• You got fair market value, the same value you would get at the trade deadline. It's an OTT 4th, that's like getting a late 3rd from a contender, where talking a difference of 6-7 spots in the draft.
• You moved a guy you weren't going to keep, and the Rangers at the time had options for their call-ups in Chytil and Kravstov. It's only 1 now, because Kravstov went back to Russia. I know he can be called up at any time, but we'll see what happens.
• The most important piece is this: You cleared cap space.

Right now there are 13 teams in the league that are banking on LTIR for cap room. 9 of them see themselves as contenders.

Take this with a grain of salt if you must, but from what I've heard, those teams are looking to make trades to clear cap space. 5 of those 9 teams are imo cup contenders, who will run into roster issues.

All 13 of them are in a place where if they get hit with injuries, that they will have to ice a shorter roster.

It's early in the season, and hasn't happened yet, but that is where they find themselves.

Nearly the entire league banked on the cap being $1.5M higher. That lack of a buffer is costly for hockey operations.

How do you think that translates as far as trades? Rangers looking for a pick for helping or can they actually pick up someone who fills a genuine need?

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Analytics are a tool and should be used with the rest of the tools, and sparingly. The problem with Analytics can be summed up with Kreider who by all accounts analytically one of the better players last year, now his linemates change and all of a sudden analytically hes a bad player. So which is it? If I add Kreider to the Bergon Marchand line he will obviously be an analytical darling again. Same thing goes for Pionk and Shattenkirk with their new teamates. Analytics are spewed about here like they are facts about players ignoring line combinations, matchups, injuries etc etc. The team with the least amount of resources committed to analytics just won the cup so go figure. If we are pointing at Trouba now and saying he is bad because of analytics and ignoring all the factors that create those stats I'd suggest not even watching the game and just look at the fancy stats.

 

[Irishguy42]

Analytics are a tool and should be used with the rest of the tools, and sparingly. The problem with Analytics can be summed up with Kreider who by all accounts analytically one of the better players last year, now his linemates change and all of a sudden analytically hes a bad player. So which is it? If I add Kreider to the Bergon Marchand line he will obviously be an analytical darling again. Same thing goes for Pionk and Shattenkirk with their new teamates. Analytics are spewed about here like they are facts about players ignoring line combinations, matchups, injuries etc etc. The team with the least amount of resources committed to analytics just won the cup so go figure. If we are pointing at Trouba now and saying he is bad because of analytics and ignoring all the factors that create those stats I'd suggest not even watching the game and just look at the fancy stats.

He's not good analytically this year so far. Both raw stats and relative.

So...there goes the rest of your statement. At least do your research before you try to make an argument.

As for the fact that a Blues just won the cup with "the least amount of resources committed to analytics," you might want to check a larger sample size than...well...one season, in regards to where teams who won the cup places amount common advanced stats in the regular season.

 

[Fantomas]

When will Chytil get the call-up? Brett Howden is centering the 2nd PP??? Ouch.

 

[Irishguy42]

When will Chytil get the call-up? Brett Howden is centering the 2nd PP??? Ouch.

Next HFD games this week are: Wednesday, Friday, Saturday
Next NYR games this week are: Tuesday, Saturday

So I think the ideal time to call him up would be tomorrow or Tuesday morning. Or, if they want him for Saturday in Nashville, call him up Thursday after his game Wednesday night.

 

[Fantomas]

Next HFD games this week are: Wednesday, Friday, Saturday
Next NYR games this week are: Tuesday, Saturday

So I think the ideal time to call him up would be tomorrow or Tuesday morning. Or, if they want him for Saturday in Nashville, call him up Thursday after his game Wednesday night.

Interesting. Do you think he's that close to a call-up?