I’m trying to think of the outlier stats that would make a $12M goalie contract worth it.
McDavid scores what, 20 points more than the second best player most years? Let’s call it 20% better production for argument’s sake.
If we sign a goalie to a contract like that, what would we then have to demand consistently? A 0.935 SVP vs. 0.915 for the second tier of good goalies? A GAA under 2?
Again, there isn’t that much separation between the really good goalies and the just good ones. The difference between McDavid and Sebastian Aho is much, much bigger than the difference between Igor and Binnington.
It's more difficult to quantify, and because of that, I wouldn't say it's necessarily true.
How much will McDavid get on his next contract? It's not really fair to compare Igor getting a new contract at 29 to McDavid on the end of a contract he signed at age 20.
Matthews just got 13.25 mil. McDavid will probably get 14-15 mil.
It's a free market system. Players get paid what the market dictates. In the end, winning is about maximizing value. We could say that Igor at 12 mil would be overpaid relative to his value to the team, but we could say that about a lot of players. There isn't a team in the league who doesn't have a player making more than they are objectively worth. But if that player is high enough value, then overpaying a bit isn't an issue. I'd rather have an overpaid superstar than an overpaid boat anchor.
This is why drafting well and having a steady pipeline of cheap talent is essential. There will always be some players who get paid too much. That has to be offset by players making less than they are worth if teams want to win.
None of this is to say that we absolutely should give Igor 12 mil. I just think the argument that we can't win with a 12-mil goalie is ridiculous. Paying less for a goalie doesn't automatically make the rest of the team better. More teams fail because they don't have adequate goaltending than do teams who pay a premium for quality goaltending.
