Roster Building thread - Part X - (TDL edition)

[GoAwayPanarin]

I only like analytics when they reinforce my preconceived notions

Truer words have never been spoken lmao.

 

[bhamill]

I mean honestly I also don't enjoy the conversation about "the sport I love" being reduced to appeals to a historical past that is approaching irrelevant these days when talking about the modern game, or arguments based on "eye tests" that eventually end up at "well if you've ever played the game!' and stuff like that.

Again that's what this shit used to always be before analytics ever came along. Just people arguing that they knew better than someone else for whatever vague reasons they had.

And now we do it with another subjective set of standards that many pretend are objective and inarguable. Hahahaha. All that's required is that we leave space in our opinions for being imperfect. Analytics have unfortunately become a constant "Appeal to Authority." I always admit it's merely my take, and I try to give reasonable backing for it, I never try to present anything as incontrovertible, as I see too many people do with charts... I don't mind if people disagree with me, and I'd prefer if no one tried to "convert" me to their opinion by pretending they have a lock on all of this shit with "analytics." No biggie, doesnt ruin my day, just not enjoyable. For me. Anyone else can knock themselves out with that stuff if they like.

 

[DanielBrassard]

Oh goody another LW. Forget about Tkachuk, this isn’t Matthew. Save your assets for Pettersson if you’re planning on going big game hunting.

 

[bhamill]

I think it is not a given that he plays like he has his last 5 games instead of his first 25.

I'm not sure which is more likely at this point, but a statistical model cannot disregard the first 25 in favor of the last 5. And it's not "dumb," for any model to operate like that because disregarding that other data is what is dumb.

It's a model. Accept it for what it is and we all acknowledge that its possible, but not guaranteed, that Igor reverts to his form from 2 years ago.

Yes its a model. IMO a dumb one.
I notice you didn't answer the simple question I asked: "Right now, who here actually thinks Igor is a negative for a playoff run this year?" If you believe that is a good model, then your answer should be "me." Hahaha.

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

I mean honestly I also don't enjoy the conversation about "the sport I love" being reduced to appeals to a historical past that is approaching irrelevant these days when talking about the modern game, or arguments based on "eye tests" that eventually end up at "well if you've ever played the game!' and stuff like that.

Again that's what this shit used to always be before analytics ever came along. Just people arguing that they knew better than someone else for whatever vague reasons they had.

I do think there's some validity to that though. Not just hockey but in any sport. People who've played a sport come at it from a different perspective and at the very least it makes the discussion more interesting than, well the chart says this so screw your "intangibles and stuff" or "does things."

 

[mas0764]

Yes its a model. IMO a dumb one.
I notice you didn't answer the simple question I asked: "Right now, who here actually thinks Igor is a negative for a playoff run this year?" If you believe that is a good model, then your answer should be "yes." Hahaha.

I did answer it. I said I don't know which is more likely, that he plays like his first 25 games or like his last 5.

I can believe it's a good model without believing it predicts every wild swing a player might have in-season. Most players don't change their performance wildly in-season.

 

[MrAlmost]

Lindgren is objectively worse then Trouba right now. And that's with the best 2-way defenseman in the entire league. I'm also not sure if Lindgren is even close to Trouba when they are both on their game. Lindgren out and Hanifin in makes us immediately better. Much better. Both now and going forward and I bet it even improves the numbers of, not just his likely partner Fox, but everyone else too.

I like the analytics and I dont. Hockey is a unique sport analytically cause it has more variables than any other sport effecting outcomes. Substitutions are made on the fly, the puck can literally act randomly, there are basically 2 sets of players that form to make a unit that only exists for a minute then changes and the next time you go out it won't be the same group. Among many other things. I like most of the stats, but I don't like the pretentious nature many posters (no one specific and not just our little corner of HF) take on when sharing a chart.

Baseball is the worst comparison since the game is repeatable routine every single play. Analytics work great there. Basketball is a little closer, but it's still not as fast, random nor does it have the switches at the tempo hockey does.

I would be curious to see like a small league made around teams of 10 guys so it's just 2 lines and I would bet the analytics would get much more reliable. Like really reliable to the point where you could predict player chemistry. That would be fun. Like that Minnesota summer league.

 

[bhamill]

Oh goody another LW. Forget about Tkachuk, this isn’t Matthew. Save your assets for Pettersson if you’re planning on going big game hunting.

Brady is more realistic. Van is holding onto Petterson, and the price would be prohibitive anyway. And sure, if FL says they are shopping Matt, we should be interested.

I did answer it. I said I don't know which is more likely, that he plays like his first 25 games or like his last 5.

I can believe it's a good model without believing it predicts every wild swing a player might have in-season. Most players don't change their performance wildly in-season.

That's not an answer, that's a hedge.
Do YOU think Igor is a detriment to our playoff hopes? Yes or No.

 

[mas0764]

That being said anyone with a brain knows Trouba and Lindgren have sucked and Miller has underperformed expectations. No chart necessary.

Interesting, because the charts said that Trouba sucked long ago and people just refused to believe it, even though it was true three years ago too.

 

[duhmetreE]

I don't agree with that, I think he uses that very effectively a large percentage of the time. He may need to be able to diversify a bit as the book on him gets out though.

at least, when he's skating backwards and defending a rush., I think sometimes he stops skating when he needs to get into position for something because he thinks his reach can work

That’s the point. It works most of the time but it looks bad when he gets burnt

His recovery is elite there’s no arguing that…. But using last game as an example where it burnt him, If he took one more stride he’s in the passing lane on the 3rd goal allowed instead of relying on his reach. He got back in time but he stopped skating

things that he can fine tune

 

[DanielBrassard]

Brady is more realistic. Van is holding onto Petterson, and the price would be prohibitive anyway. And sure, if FL says they are shopping Matt, we should be interested.


That's not an answer, that's a hedge.
Do YOU think Igor is a detriment to our playoff hopes? Yes or No.

Brady is more realistic based on what? There’s just as much speculation about pettersson as tkachuk if not more. Plus the price would not be worth it from the Rangers perspective for Brady considering who we already have at LW.

 

[mas0764]

That's not an answer, that's a hedge.
Do YOU think Igor is a detriment to our playoff hopes? Yes or No.

It's not a hedge. I don't know whether he will be or won't be.

I can't predict how he will be come playoff time. I don't feel confident in it based on this play this year to say he will definitely be great.

That should at least partially answer your question. He's been so bad for parts of this year that I can't sit here and say he will be as good as he was in prior years.

 

[McRanger92]

Lindgren is objectively worse then Trouba right now. And that's with the best 2-way defenseman in the entire league. I'm also not sure if Lindgren is even close to Trouba when they are both on their game. Lindgren out and Hanifin in makes us immediately better. Much better. Both now and going forward and I bet it even improves the numbers of, not just his likely partner Fox, but everyone else too.

I like the analytics and I dont. Hockey is a unique sport analytically cause it has more variables than any other sport effecting outcomes. Substitutions are made on the fly, the puck can literally act randomly, there are basically 2 sets of players that form to make a unit that only exists for a minute then changes and the next time you go out it won't be the same group. Among many other things. I like most of the stats, but I don't like the pretentious nature many posters (no one specific and not just our little corner of HF) take on when sharing a chart.

Baseball is the worst comparison since the game is repeatable routine every single play. Analytics work great there. Basketball is a little closer, but it's still not as fast, random nor does it have the switches at the tempo hockey does.

I would be curious to see like a small league made around teams of 10 guys so it's just 2 lines and I would bet the analytics would get much more reliable. Like really reliable to the point where you could predict player chemistry. That would be fun. Like that Minnesota summer league.

The randomness of hockey is really why I cant fully buy in to the underlying numbers at the end of the day. I also think the best models are the ones measuring large sample sizes for players. For teams i think the underlying stuff matters less because teams can win relying on defense and goaltending despite getting outshot.

 

[McRanger92]

Interesting, because the charts said that Trouba sucked long ago and people just refused to believe it, even though it was true three years ago too.

I know this is hard to comprehend for some but I dont think he is a bad player because his bar graph is red. He's having a bad year and is slightly overpaid for his role but blocking shots, hitting and playing defensive hockey in his own zone matter, even if the other team is getting shots off.

If I had a major complaint its that he never gets close enough to the opposition on the rush except when he is going for a big hit, and he is surprisingly weak battling for position in front of his own net for a big guy. These are also complaints I have about K'Andre Miller. They are both capable of more.

 

[bhamill]

Brady is more realistic based on what? There’s just as much speculation about pettersson as tkachuk if not more. Plus the price would not be worth it from the Rangers perspective for Brady considering who we already have at LW.

VAN wants to hold onto Petterson they've never said anything that should lead us to think he's available. It's been purely people speculating that he might not want to sign there. And now that they are playing so well, that speculation has lost its legs as well.
But whatever, I'm not opposed to NYR trying to get ANY of the three players we're knocking around here, it will always depend on the price as far as it being worth it, and admittedly I have no more of a crystal ball than you do. Just giving you my take.
Also, after switching Laf to the RW, I'm not SO hung up on which wing a player has been on. Not the biggest factor for me.

 

[17futurecap]

Brady isn’t happening next week, at least table that discussion for the summer.

On Ryan Whitney’s tweet last week regarding the Senators “maybe” being willing to move Brady Tkachuk:

Ah yeah, that could not be further from the truth (chuckle).

I don’t follow on social media. I do get, our communications people alert me to things like that. There’s obviously no truth to that. Like, we’re building the team around Brady Tkachuk and the type of person, the type of player and the type of leader, that he is.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

The randomness of hockey is really why I can fully buy in to the underlying numbers at the end of the day. I also think the best models are the ones measuring large sample sizes for players. For teams i think the underlying stuff matters less because teams can win relying on defense and goaltending despite getting outshot.

Outshot is fine. Out chanced generally is not.

It's why i don't really sweat games where the Rangers get out xG'd by a team that is just building up numbers by throwing trash at the net. If the goalie is doing his job, we're fine.

If they're giving up double digit rush chances, thats a problem.

 

[bhamill]

It's not a hedge. I don't know whether he will be or won't be.

I can't predict how he will be come playoff time. I don't feel confident in it based on this play this year to say he will definitely be great.

That should at least partially answer your question. He's been so bad for parts of this year that I can't sit here and say he will be as good as he was in prior years.

I'm asking you what you THINK, not what you know. It's not difficult. But if you can't answer "yes, I believe he will be a detriment" I'll take that as an indicator of your actual "confidence" in this model, despite your defense of it.
I'll continue to call it dumb, that is just something you are going to have to live with. Hahaha. I'm sure it won't really ruin your day.

 

[I Eat Crow]

Whats the deal for Tkachuk? Something like..
Kakko, 1st, Perrault, Goodrow? Essentially 3 1st round type players.

Hell no.

I'd rather have Kakko, contract situations and fit for the team considered. Never mind giving up two more premium assets.

 

[UnSandvich]

Imo, the problem we have is that our untouchable prospects (imo just Perreault, but I know others feel Othmann is on that level) are the guys who rebuilding/retooling/non-contending teams are going to want, and those are the teams we’d be trading with. They would be looking for higher upside plays.

On the other hand, every contender needs Berard & Sykora types to fill out their bottom 6. Potential long-term players who may not have high-end upside but are quick, high IQ and at least a little physical. More importantly, guys who won’t break the bank. It’s the same reason I think the Rangers should be doing their damnedest to hold onto those players. When the stars are getting paid you need to have guys who’ll take less but are still valuable

 

[duhmetreE]

In today's society I only trust what I see/hear with my eyes and ears. Too many people out there trying to lie to my face. Present company excluded of course.

Eyes and analytics tell me Lindgren and Trouba have been bad

Lindgrens offensive game is abysmal

 

[DanielBrassard]

Outshot is fine. Out chanced generally is not.

It's why i don't really sweat games where the Rangers get out xG'd by a team that is just building up numbers by throwing trash at the net. If the goalie is doing his job, we're fine.

If they're giving up double digit rush chances, thats a problem.

Over the long term those things are more correlated than not. Sure it can work for a few games or a series but I don’t want to rely on it.

 

[bleedblue94]

Who's not vanilla? Out of the captains who have recently won Cups, who came off as fiery and is giving great responses to the media?

Stamkos? Pietrangelo? Landeskog? Even Sidney Crosby, who is regarded as a great leader, has the personality of a sofa.

Hold people accountable? Jonathan Toews refused to hold a predator accountable. He has three Cups.

I think Fox should be captain because he always plays the right way, sets an example, and put his career on the line to be a Ranger. You really don't need more than that.

You're expecting Mark Messier. If you're expecting Messier, we'll never have a good captain again.

Stamkos? yes
Pietrangelo? yes, and universally regarded as a leader of players around the league.
Landeskog? are you kidding, yes. do you know anything about the avs about lando does out there?
Sidney Crosby, are you kidding, yes. i can only assume this is a joke. listen to any former teammate talk about what sid does off the ice and the standards they try to keep up with. there are jokes with the players that sid's training habits make them think he is prepping for another league beyond the nhl that they dont know about.

The names you listed showed you dont actually know anything about them, their reps around the league, or the roles that even media constantly reports. You citing the quality of their interviews just demonstrates you have no idea what a captain and leader actually does on a hockey team or in and around a hockey locker at higher levels. your criteria was "fiery" and "great responses to the media." that is not what makes a captain for a high level hockey team. they are things that players pay attention to if their leader is acting a certain way or makes a specific comment to the media bc for the most part great leaders handle these things in house. That is why the people you listed above are also vanilla to you bc you are judging them based on their fire and media work but you have no idea (or chose to ignore) the other parts surrounding them and their aura to their teams.

You are going to bring up toews in the realm of beach and act like he didnt hold teammates accountable on the ice? they are different things and i think toews and the rest of the people in the org at the time are pieces of shit for how the beach thing played out, but what you are saying is flat stupid. all you had to do was watch the hawks on the ice back then to know i am right, youre trying to be cheeky and it is just coming of dumb. toews is a muppet in interviews but he was fire around the rink. that is a huge part of why i think less of him as a person in light of the beach thing bc he could have been the one to stop it but chose not to. that shows he has horrible judgement and bad priorities but he absolutely was the leader of those teams. his influence as a player and person and the decisions he made around the beach mess is exactly why i did not want him anywhere near an org I support. I flat out would not support nyr if toews was here, 100%

You think fox put his career on the line to come to nyc? are you kidding? he was walking to ufa and going to sign where he wanted. his career was no more at risk than anyone else. everyone knew he was a great prospect by the time he refused to sign. HEADS UP, you cant refuse to sign if teams arent asking you to sign a contract. We know of two teams that tried to sign him and refused. He didnt risk his career to come here, again a laughable comment.

You are the only person that brought up messier, you have no substance here and your entire post is hyperbole.

Again, being a great and smart player does not automatically make you a great leader. What you want to do is what house league teams do where they toss the C on the best payer on the team because... reasons...

For as much crap as Kreider and Lindgren take around here both are ahead for me on that C if Trouba were traded (he isn't going anywhere this summer).

 

[McRanger92]

Outshot is fine. Out chanced generally is not.

It's why i don't really sweat games where the Rangers get out xG'd by a team that is just building up numbers by throwing trash at the net. If the goalie is doing his job, we're fine.

If they're giving up double digit rush chances, thats a problem.

See, I can excuse the rush chances against to some extent. It's hard to completely cut those out in today's game. And usually they happen due to over aggressiveness, which is not always a negative especially for a team like ours that has been too passive.

On the other hand it infuriates me when the other team can get inside on us so easily. Trouba and Miller are big guys constantly getting beat inside by smaller players. Lindgren is usually picking up his teeth in the corner while Fox gets double and tripled teamed in front. Gustafsson had a good start but he has more egregious D zone lapses than anyone. Schneider and Fox are really the only guys who will consistently fight for position, even if they arent always winning. Its why I think we need a D with size even if the underlying numbers look scary. And I'm sure there is a guy out there who will do that boring, stay at home stuff AND have good metrics. Its Drury's job to find it.

Eyes and analytics tell me Lindgren and Trouba have been bad

Lindgrens offensive game is abysmal

You will find no argument from me

 

[bleedblue94]

Eyes and analytics tell me Lindgren and Trouba have been bad

Lindgrens offensive game is abysmal

and people want to put them together on a pair? they wouldn't be able to break the puck out of their own zone. If you take lindy away from Fox he has to play with gusto, but then you have the issue of too many rd. i feel like the only way that all happens is if schneider goes in another deal. like schnieder and other parts for a resigned hanafin and a d of:

hanafin fox
miller trouba
lindgren gusto

or

miller fox
hanafin trouba
lindgren gusto

Miller really is the key to all of it, if he is playing like he can he changes everything here.