Roster Building thread - Part X - (TDL edition)

[McRanger92]

There should really be an advanced stats thread for these discussions(there definitely was one at one point). I reckon the majority of the board doesn't know (or care) what these charts say, where their data comes from or even where to access them. The underlying stats are a useful tool but I hate what they've done to the culture of hockey fandom. Everyone is an expert now, when really, no one is.

 

[Levitate]

There should really be an advanced stats thread for these discussions. I reckon the majority of the board doesn't know (or care) what these charts say, where their data comes from or even where to access them. The underlying stats are a useful tool but I hate what they've done to the culture of hockey fandom. Everyone is an expert now, when really, no one is.

They serve a purpose when we're discussing things like the roster and trades since it's another tool of evaluation. I think it's fair to question their methodology at times and whether they're being used properly by posters here in context of what the discussion is but there's also far too much dismissing them out of hand.

Also, everyone already was an expert back when the eye test ruled all, we all just argued over who's eye test was better!

 

[McRanger92]

They serve a purpose when we're discussing things like the roster and trades since it's another tool of evaluation. I think it's fair to question their methodology at times and whether they're being used properly by posters here in context of what the discussion is but there's also far too much dismissing them out of hand.

Also, everyone already was an expert back when the eye test ruled all, we all just argued over who's eye test was better!

I think the difference now is that process matters more to people than outcome. Which is really not the point of watching sports. Just my opinion

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Also one thing to remember is that we shouldn't really put any stock into any rumors that are out there.

The FO keeps a lid on everything and most of what is being talked about on the web are just people trying to connect the dots between what the Rangers need and who the available fits are.

There should really be an advanced stats thread for these discussions. I reckon the majority of the board doesn't know (or care) what these charts say, where their data comes from or even where to access them. The underlying stats are a useful tool but I hate what they've done to the culture of hockey fandom. Everyone is an expert now, when really, no one is.

They're just numbers that threaten people who either

A. Don't want to take the time to do a little bit of reading
B. Have their biases challenged
C. Find out that their favorite team may not be as good as they think they are

Plus they've gotten better in hockey over the last few years. CF/FF% is a thing of the past and when you apply the newer stuff to good teams of the past, you find out that those teams were still good.

Analytics exist in every other sport. They've existed in baseball forever and they're huge in basketball. There is some noise from baseball fans in regards to this (which is dumb because the most successful teams of the last decade have been heavy into analytics) but you don't hear the uproar from fans of other sports against analytics like you do hockey fans.

 

[HockeyBasedNYC]

There should really be an advanced stats thread for these discussions(there definitely was one at one point). I reckon the majority of the board doesn't know (or care) what these charts say, where their data comes from or even where to access them. The underlying stats are a useful tool but I hate what they've done to the culture of hockey fandom. Everyone is an expert now, when really, no one is.

I agree. I think there is some value in the analytics but they are really supplemental in value when looking at a players value.

 

[McRanger92]

Also one thing to remember is that we shouldn't really put any stock into any rumors that are out there.

The FO keeps a lid on everything and most of what is being talked about on the web are just people trying to connect the dots between what the Rangers need and who the available fits are.



They're just numbers that threaten people who either

A. Don't want to take the time to do a little bit of reading
B. Have their biases challenged
C. Find out that their favorite team may not be as good as they think they are

Plus they've gotten better in hockey over the last few years. CF/FF% is a thing of the past and when you apply the newer stuff to good teams of the past, you find out that those teams were still good.

Analytics exist in every other sport. They've existed in baseball forever and they're huge in basketball. There is some noise from baseball fans in regards to this (which is dumb because the most successful teams of the last decade have been heavy into analytics) but you don't hear the uproar from fans of other sports against analytics like you do hockey fans.

A. People with jobs dont really have the time for that unless they are passionate about it
B. "Having their bias challenged" isnt why people watch hockey for the most part lol
C. Everyone and their mother knows the Rangers arent as good as we want them to be.

Bill James recently spoke about how his dismissal of situational hitting stats at the outset of the analytics movement he spearheaded have hurt how baseball is analyzed, and he regrets it. The numbers aren't gospel and a lot of them lack context. That being said anyone with a brain knows Trouba and Lindgren have sucked and Miller has underperformed expectations. No chart necessary.

 

[Levitate]

I think the difference now is that process matters more to people than outcome. Which is really not the point of watching sports. Just my opinion

Eh...I don't think that's quite true, I think it just comes across that way sometimes when discussion happens. Unfortunately I think we're also in a circular argument (in a general sense) where some people say "I don't like them!" and other people respond by saying "you suck you just don't understand!" and it gets personal quickly and the argument is more about entrenched opinions rather than anyone learning something new.

To me it doesn't help that hockey analytics are very nonstandardized at this point and it seems like every rando has their own charts (that often aren't particularly easy to decipher) that try to measure things in their own unique way, and that overall the sport is still evolving to incorporate them

I agree. I think there is some value in the analytics but they are really supplemental in value when looking at a players value.

What's the primary thing to look at then?

 

[LORDE]

If we wait, we'll be talking about wasting Panarin's prime like we did Lundqvist's. It's time to load up, my onoy hope is Perrault and Othmann are off limits, and Garand as well because i see him being Shestys replacement if his next contract ask is too high. Lets enjoy the ride, Boston is weaker, Tampa is weaker, Florida is a problem, Carolina and Toronto don't have goalies, lets go get it.

Honestly the issue is that Panarin's prime has been from Oct-March

Not really like Lundqvist who brought it consistently through the post season.

If Bread ghosts again & Mika can't turn it around all of this is moot.

I do get your point tho.

 

[Levitate]

A. People with jobs dont really have the time for that unless they are passionate about it
B. "Having their bias challenged" isnt why people watch hockey for the most part lol
C. Everyone and their mother knows the Rangers arent as good as we want them to be.

Bill James recently spoke about how his dismissal of situational hitting stats at the outset of the analytics movement he spearheaded have hurt how baseball is analyzed, and he regrets it. The numbers aren't gospel and a lot of them lack context. That being said anyone with a brain knows Trouba and Lindgren have sucked and Miller has underperformed expectations. No chart necessary.

IMO one of the benefits of these analytics is to look for players who might be flying under the radar a bit and can be acquired and will perform well in their specific roles. Of course, other teams might know that too, but say you're looking for a 3rd line player do you pay Goodrow millions because he has name "value" and is known or do you find someone who has been performing well in that spot but doesn't get a lot of press and doesn't have a lot of eyes on them and maybe their team is willing to move them for one reason or another.

 

[bhamill]

Also one thing to remember is that we shouldn't really put any stock into any rumors that are out there.

The FO keeps a lid on everything and most of what is being talked about on the web are just people trying to connect the dots between what the Rangers need and who the available fits are.



They're just numbers that threaten people who either

A. Don't want to take the time to do a little bit of reading
B. Have their biases challenged
C. Find out that their favorite team may not be as good as they think they are

Plus they've gotten better in hockey over the last few years. CF/FF% is a thing of the past and when you apply the newer stuff to good teams of the past, you find out that those teams were still good.

Analytics exist in every other sport. They've existed in baseball forever and they're huge in basketball. There is some noise from baseball fans in regards to this (which is dumb because the most successful teams of the last decade have been heavy into analytics) but you don't hear the uproar from fans of other sports against analytics like you do hockey fans.

Some people just don't enjoy the conversation about the sport they love being constantly reduced to mathematics, especially mathematics that are fairly incomplete and often based on subjective definitions.
If the analytics were such good projections, such a great model for predictions, the analytics darlings should be cleaning up in Vegas. Money hand over fist... You (the general you, not YOU) can look at the numbers and tell me who is going to win? Go bet your house or your kids' college fund on it. Oh, it's too risky? They are fairly imperfect predictors? Color me shocked.
Myself, I just skip a lot of that stuff, because it really is no fun for me. Rather than piss all over that part of the conversation, I just move along. Usually. And its not that I don't understand math or statistics, the level of math classes I had in Uni would make your head spin; it's just that I see it as subjectivity posing as objectivity, because at it's core the definitions are still arbitrary. It's like the "Drake Equation" on the expectation for the existence of/contact with alien life: it's based on rates and ratios of everything from how fast planets are formed to the length of time it takes a civilization to send signals into space, but many of those variables are ASSUMPTIONS or arbitrary assignations. Which taints the entire thing.

 

[Kaapo Cabana]

Would never happen and this is where fans get greedy. If Vancouver presents you that deal you get the ink dry as fast as possible before their GM comes down from their obvious 4 day bender resulting in a blackout. You don't negotiate. You agree with a straight face and then dance until the end of time.

See the deal where we traded Buchnevich to the Blues. They didn't negotiate. They said yes while quietly thinking (is Drury high AF right now?).

Who says Vancouver is presenting the deal?

I’m just saying what I’d present instead

 

[Levitate]

Some people just don't enjoy the conversation about the sport they love being constantly reduced to mathematics, especially mathematics that are fairly incomplete and often based on subjective definitions.

I mean honestly I also don't enjoy the conversation about "the sport I love" being reduced to appeals to a historical past that is approaching irrelevant these days when talking about the modern game, or arguments based on "eye tests" that eventually end up at "well if you've ever played the game!' and stuff like that.

Again that's what this shit used to always be before analytics ever came along. Just people arguing that they knew better than someone else for whatever vague reasons they had.

 

[kovazub94]

yeah I'm kinda having horrible thoughts of trading for Hanafin and then he gets played with Schneider because the Lindgren party can't be broken up

Yup, we’ve been there before for sure but I’m optimistic and moreover trying to imagine not only Hanifin with Fox but also Laviolette making Trouba / Lindgren a thing that will get a lot of PK but lose ES minutes to Schneider / Miller. Yeah I’m a dreamer!

 

[I Eat Crow]

Just stopping in to say that the only way I'd be interested in acquiring the Ottawa Tkachuk is if Trouba or Zibanejad are going the other way.

 

[Levitate]

Yup, we’ve been there before for sure but I’m optimistic and moreover trying to imagine not only Hanifin with Fox but also Laviolette making Trouba / Lindgren a thing that will get a lot of PK but lose ES minutes to Schneider / Miller. Yeah I’m a dreamer!

assuming they're healthy I think leaning on a top 4 like that heavily in the playoffs is a fine idea

 

[duhmetreE]

He's had his ups and down but overall he's probably been fine. I think we'd like to have seen more consistency out of him but the gaffes he makes are more noticeable than the stuff he does well most of the time, which is why the eye test is always flawed in its own ways. Our brains definitely remember those moments that stand out far more than it recognizes some other baseline of consistency

Throwing on my BS speculating hat I think Miller really wants to be a go to star and perhaps has pushed too hard and tried tdo play above his level at times. His skating ability is a great strength, he can carry the puck quite well, but he can't make elite level passes and shouldn't try to, and he needs to watch his pinches because he gets caught on those too often. To some extent, let the game come to him when it matters and use his best attributes to push the pace when appropriate. I think he arguably pushed too hard this season trying to make it a big breakout year

e: I think the argument about him being soft is silly. He uses his stick and poke check far more effectively than taking the body would be

I think his biggest problem, I mentioned before, is trying to lure players into traps where he then uses his skating and reach.

If he just played a simpler way it would go a long way.

Just stopping in to say that the only way I'd be interested in acquiring the Ottawa Tkachuk is if Trouba or Zibanejad are going the other way.

Trouba is not going to Canada.

It’d have to be someone like Detroit or Miami

 

[Gardner McKay]

Who says Vancouver is presenting the deal?

I’m just saying what I’d present instead

I know. I'm just saying, if Vancouver said yes with Perreault involved, you just smile and nod and say thank you.

It would be such a massive get for our team to snag EP. Pipe dream but still lol.

 

[I Eat Crow]

Lindgren + Sykora + Rempe for Hanifin
- Extend Hanifin in offseason

2025 1st + Berard + Robertson + 2026 Conditional 4th (becomes 1st is Rangers win Cup this year or next) for Buchnevich at 50%
- Used the McDonagh trade we made to Tampa as framework

Goodrow + Jones + 2024 2nd for Sturm at 75% (1.5 mil)

Panarin Trocheck Laf
Kreider Zib Buch
Cuylle Brodz Kakko
Edstrom Sturm Vesey

Hanifin Fox
Miller Trouba
Gus Schneider

Kakko likely moved in offseason to recoup some picks and open up a spot for Othmann next year. Still would have our 1st this draft, our top prospects, and potentially our 2026 1st unless we won the cup

I'm not trading Sykora or Berard. This team needs players like them moving forward.

Robertson, Rempe (cash in now), Korzack, Leshitshow, Chemelar are the prospects I'm making available for trade. Berard, Sykora, Othmann, and Perreault are untouchable in my book.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

One of the benefits in moving Trouba at some point it that it opens up a more prominent spot for a still improving Schneider.

It's funny because people loved to trash Schneider when he was struggling but he's been really good for us of late, and crickets.

 

[EdJovanovski]

There should really be an advanced stats thread for these discussions(there definitely was one at one point). I reckon the majority of the board doesn't know (or care) what these charts say, where their data comes from or even where to access them. The underlying stats are a useful tool but I hate what they've done to the culture of hockey fandom. Everyone is an expert now, when really, no one is.

I only like analytics when they reinforce my preconceived notions

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

A. People with jobs dont really have the time for that unless they are passionate about it
B. "Having their bias challenged" isnt why people watch hockey for the most part lol
C. Everyone and their mother knows the Rangers arent as good as we want them to be.

Bill James recently spoke about how his dismissal of situational hitting stats at the outset of the analytics movement he spearheaded have hurt how baseball is analyzed, and he regrets it. The numbers aren't gospel and a lot of them lack context. That being said anyone with a brain knows Trouba and Lindgren have sucked and Miller has underperformed expectations. No chart necessary.

A. Bullshit. Most of us have jobs and can find time to do it. Most sites have a glossary attached which explains everything pretty clearly. It doesn't take THAT much time. If someone doesn't want to then thats fine, but they don't get to be dismissive of shit when they clearly don't know better.
B. No, but fragile egos exist everywhere.
C. You wouldn't know that by some of the reactions here.

James has obviously been a pioneer in baseball analytics but if he thinks that his opinion on situational hitting had THAT big of an impact on how teams built their rosters then he's giving himself too much credit. Teams have attempted to structure their rosters to be strong in those areas forever.

Context exists for most things in hockey too (and everything in baseball outside of what is happening in real time.) Its not everything and shouldn't be treated as such, but even in it's relatively primitive stat it's way more accurate than 99% of what you'd read here is.

 

[McRanger92]

I only like analytics when they reinforce my preconceived notions

In today's society I only trust what I see/hear with my eyes and ears. Too many people out there trying to lie to my face. Present company excluded of course.

 

[Levitate]

I think his biggest problem, I mentioned before, is trying to lure players into traps where he then uses his skating and reach.

If he just played a simpler way it would go a long way.

I don't agree with that, I think he uses that very effectively a large percentage of the time. He may need to be able to diversify a bit as the book on him gets out though.

at least, when he's skating backwards and defending a rush., I think sometimes he stops skating when he needs to get into position for something because he thinks his reach can work

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Whats the deal for Tkachuk? Something like..
Kakko, 1st, Perrault, Goodrow? Essentially 3 1st round type players.

 

[mas0764]

And looking at his career numbers, and his past playoff performances, PLUS his most recent string, if a model lists him as a DETRIMENT to our chances, then that model is f***ing dumb.

My sample size is bigger than theirs, and more logical.

Let me make this easy: Right now, who here actually thinks Igor is a negative for a playoff run this year?

I think it is not a given that he plays like he has his last 5 games instead of his first 25.

I'm not sure which is more likely at this point, but a statistical model cannot disregard the first 25 in favor of the last 5. And it's not "dumb," for any model to operate like that because disregarding that other data is what is dumb.

It's a model. Accept it for what it is and we all acknowledge that its possible, but not guaranteed, that Igor reverts to his form from 2 years ago.