Roster Building thread - Part X - (TDL edition)

[HolyHagelin]

Analytics are like just about any other predictive tool; useful when applied correctly as part of a broader range of observational methods.

That’s the rub, too many just say “SPREADSHEET GO BRRRT” and don’t even grasp the underlying concepts that drive the numbers.

And don’t even get me started in the relative value of descriptive versus predictive analytics

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

I have absolutely no doubt that Boyle has a TON of experience and insight to offer. Insight I could never dream of possessing as someone who never played at the D1 level let alone the NHL. But I do wonder how much, if any, time he has spend challenging his preconceived assumptions instilled in him 10-30 years ago. Maybe he has - I have no idea. But as we know this sport has changed a lot in a short period of time. And so often the support in the media or from team sources for players that don’t fit the current analytics narrative seems knee jerk and often tribal. Which is what I often find grating and insufficient.

Now that said I am purely talking about basic “counting” statistics like #of shot attempts, scoring chances, and expected goals. When we get into a predictive model made by some guy on Twitter I take it with a heft grain of salt.

I think this a completely fair question. But you could also ask do the models take into account all the little nuances, the games within the game, that only someone like Boyle would look for or recognize, that may go unnoticed but turn out to have a big impact on the final score?

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I used to be pretty anti metric in the early days, 10 years or so ago. Back in the early days of Corsi when there was zero consideration for shot quality, for example, there were logic gaps big enough to drive a 747 through.

That said I have definitely come around over the years and consider them a valuable resource. By keeping an open mind I have found that they have challenged many of my preconceptions held and developed through my amateur playing career (not at a very high level of course)…basic and IMO non controversial things like spending more time in your opponents zone is a great way to defend.

Now when I watch games I often look at the metrics in real time and ask myself if they confirm or counter what I thought I just observed. Vastly more often than not they align to my perception of what I just watched. I would challenge any skeptics to test out the same exercise.

I have absolutely no doubt that Boyle has a TON of experience and insight to offer. Insight I could never dream of possessing as someone who never played at the D1 level let alone the NHL. But I do wonder how much, if any, time he has spend challenging his preconceived assumptions instilled in him 10-30 years ago. Maybe he has - I have no idea. But as we know this sport has changed a lot in a short period of time. And so often the support in the media or from team sources for players that don’t fit the current analytics narrative seems knee jerk and often tribal. Which is what I often find grating and insufficient.

Now that said I am purely talking about basic “counting” statistics like #of shot attempts, scoring chances, and expected goals. When we get into a predictive model made by some guy on Twitter I take it with a heft grain of salt.

I think reputation has more to do with it than that. There was a point in time where Barclay Goodrow was a good defensive forward. When you have that role on a team that wins (or is ultra competitive) the label tends to stick with you.

it took forever for people to come around on Girardi and Staal. Those guys sucked for years before the majority came around to the opinion that they sucked (or in Staal's case, still sucks.)

We've been through this exercise already. Should they hang around, the same thing will happen with the likes of Goodrow and Lindgren. It's already starting with Trouba.

 

[B17 Apricots]

I think the majority of people feel a similar way about analytics and metrics obviously having their use. I don't even completely hate the charts people put up usually either. But just for example some recent ones around the deadline with Monahan... they were silly. They cherry picked his last 3 years to claim how bad he was and completely omitted him being riddled with injuries. Meanwhile he's been healthy this year and back to being a top 6 player. Very often there's a lack of detail in those "evaluations"

 

[haohmaru]

That is not surprising considering his background is "NHL Goalie" and not stats/math major.

Yeah, because being an NHL Goalie automatically means you suck at math and stats. Got it. I mean, I think geometry might have something to do with goaltending but I might be wrong.

 

[HockeyBasedNYC]

I think the majority of people feel a similar way about analytics and metrics obviously having their use. I don't even completely hate the charts people put up usually either. But just for example some recent ones around the deadline with Monahan... they were silly. They cherry picked his last 3 years to claim how bad he was and completely omitted him being riddled with injuries. Meanwhile he's been healthy this year and back to being a top 6 player. Very often there's a lack of detail in those "evaluations"

McDonagh has had a similar turnaround.

Dumped by the Lightning and has had a really strong resurgence with his shut down metrics.

Always a good player and yes, most players age out and follow the usual curve - especially defensemen - but they are always exceptions

 

[haohmaru]

I think this a completely fair question. But you could also ask do the models take into account all the little nuances, the games within the game, that only someone like Boyle would look for or recognize, that may go unnoticed but turn out to have a big impact on the final score?

Yeah, you know all of the armchair GM's in here that think they are better than, you know, actual GM's have a comically short range of things that go into their "analysis" of why X needs to go for Y. Some of the takes on here are downright astounding for a team that's on it best 3 season run in its history and possibly equalling or bettering the win total that this franchise has EVER had. In almost ONE HUNDRED years. It's mind numbing sometimes.

I've listened to podcasts from all over the place for years with guests from backgrounds ranging from beat writers, scouts, former GM's, coaches, players, analytical gurus, and on and on and on and there's no one view that's "right".

But I did listen to Boyle's "spine player" conversation (Goodrow) and there's something that you can't glean from a chart. Trouba is a "spine player" for this team. You can argue however much you want to about their contract vs. their performance and have great arguments about that. However, part of that pay is their value to the team inside the room. Nobody here, not even the self proclaimed geniuses, have ANY clue what their removal does to this team, its performance, its leadership core, etc...

Neil Smith was talking about building the Cup team and says it pains him to this day to trade Tony Amonte for 2 3rd liners but he said it's what the team needed and was obviously right despite the cost. That team needed certain role players. This team didn't need Guentzl, it needed pieces that contributed to the group and left the room and the leadership alone. Drury accomplished that.

Kane and Tarasenko were brought in last year and clearly impacted the leadership group on the team. Neither was brought back. Lesson learned.

3 or 4 teams in the East have a bona fide chance at winning the Cup. Be happy your NYR are one of them.

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

Yeah, you know all of the armchair GM's in here that think they are better than, you know, actual GM's have a comically short range of things that go into their "analysis" of why X needs to go for Y. Some of the takes on here are downright astounding for a team that's on it best 3 season run in its history and possibly equalling or bettering the win total that this franchise has EVER had. In almost ONE HUNDRED years. It's mind numbing sometimes.

I've listened to podcasts from all over the place for years with guests from backgrounds ranging from beat writers, scouts, former GM's, coaches, players, analytical gurus, and on and on and on and there's no one view that's "right".

But I did listen to Boyle's "spine player" conversation (Goodrow) and there's something that you can't glean from a chart. Trouba is a "spine player" for this team. You can argue however much you want to about their contract vs. their performance and have great arguments about that. However, part of that pay is their value to the team inside the room. Nobody here, not even the self proclaimed geniuses, have ANY clue what their removal does to this team, its performance, its leadership core, etc...

Neil Smith was talking about building the Cup team and says it pains him to this day to trade Tony Amonte for 2 3rd liners but he said it's what the team needed and was obviously right despite the cost. That team needed certain role players. This team didn't need Guentzl, it needed pieces that contributed to the group and left the room and the leadership alone. Drury accomplished that.

Kane and Tarasenko were brought in last year and clearly impacted the leadership group on the team. Neither was brought back. Lesson learned.

3 or 4 teams in the East have a bona fide chance at winning the Cup. Be happy your NYR are one of them.

Exactly. Great post. Crazy how people can be so sure without having all the information needed to make the decision.

 

[bernmeister]

Been my point all along. I know since 2 years ago RangerBoy has been beating the drum that he will be bought out during the offseason, but I just don't buy it. There will be a team out there that will take on a SC Champ, and doesn't have a great read on him.

Hell they probably won't until they've had him for 5 or 6 games haha.

Rs will move on, but no buyout.
Good has value at 2.0, so they will retain 1.x and move w/a 6th for a 4th, something like dat

Better than straight b'o, I expect

 

[zlev]

Goodrow isnt very good but he serves a purpose that benefits the team over time.. Same with Trouba. The chart stuff has jumped the shark so much because too many zealots think its the only thing that matters.

i mean, these guys dont pass the eye test either

 

[kovazub94]

I think they’re useful as well to an extent. Some help paint a fuller picture, like Valiquettes. I love seeing his posts after a game. But it’s not the mic drop, boom roasted, tool some people think they are. Whether people believe me or not, I don’t care, but I get lucky a few times a year and get to have conversations with players past and present in non official events and to hear them talk about a player compared to how the stats people talk about a player, the difference is freaking wild.

Why I like Vally’s stats is because they’re coming from someone who’s been at this level. Further he also earns trust with his broad takes and situational analysis.

Another common view here is that most coaches (like probably at least 25 of the all current HC) are complete morons because their average job span is 2-3 years. How about the perspective that the job is extremely difficult?

 

[Kendo]

All stats have some sort of value. Even the dreaded +/-. They all have a story to tell. Just to use the "dumb stat" +/-, there is absolutely an amount of value, however small, when comparing players on the same team. Obviously, other stats tell better, deeper stories.

There is one big pitfall that I see happening with G & xG and the like, for and against, raw, %, per 60, or whatever. Let's say a guy has a better G% than xG%. There's a chance that the guy simply bucks the trend and is more effective than the formula expects. There's also the chance that the guy has had some puck luck and should regress to the mean over time. There's no true predictive answer.

If you flip a coin and get 3 heads in a row, the next flip is still 50/50. Once there's a human element involved, then it becomes a conundrum like the Sicilian in Princess Bride where it could be argued that he's both "on fire," and/or "due for a loss."

A guy has a breakout season at 27. We're all idiots arguing whether he's taken the next step as a player, or just had a one-hit wonder year. One side is going to be right 5 years down the road, but it doesn't make them "smarter" than the other side. If it were that easy, then chart heads could just print money using a betting app.

I try to acknowledge both possible outcomes, but "hope for the best" with our guys. It's healthier for my mentals. LOL

I was laughing at people ready to dump Laffy in the offseason, and I'm ready to laugh at Kakko haters this summer. I might be wrong, but I'd rather be wrong than a total downer like some. =)

 

[bobbop]

This is Lafreniere’s fourth season. After his 2022-23 season, he showed signs of breaking out and was never a trade candidate. Beginning his fourth year, he did what we hoped he would do.

This is Kakko’s fifth year. IMO That’s enough time to tell you what you have. I think he will be available this offseason. Not necessarily shopped but hasn’t done enough to get a long term contract extension.

 

[IDvsEGO]

This is Lafreniere’s fourth season. After his 2022-23 season, he showed signs of breaking out and was never a trade candidate. Beginning his fourth year, he did what we hoped he would do.

This is Kakko’s fifth year. IMO That’s enough time to tell you what you have. I think he will be available this offseason. Not necessarily shopped but hasn’t done enough to get a long term contract extension.

Weren’t we saying that about kakko at the end of year 4? 40 pts mostly at even strength, and stuck on the 3rd line.

 

[bobbop]

Weren’t we saying that about kakko at the end of year 4? 40 pts mostly at even strength, and stuck on the 3rd line.

Some were. I thought he was close to schedule last year but I’m looking at this year as a step backwards.

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

Why I like Vally’s stats is because they’re coming from someone who’s been at this level. Further he also earns trust with his broad takes and situational analysis.

Another common view here is that most coaches (like probably at least 25 of the all current HC) are complete morons because their average job span is 2-3 years. How about the perspective that the job is extremely difficult?

it’s really odd

 

[Kendo]

Some were. I thought he was close to schedule last year but I’m looking at this year as a step backwards.

Before his injury, he looked pretty good while his line wasn't scoring. 20 & 93 had 6 different RW on their line while he was out, and it showed that the lack of production wasn't because of Kakko. Then, when he comes back, we're still trying to get Mika going 5v5 with different RWs, and need Kakko to solidify the 3rd line. His same role as last year. Therefore, I'm 100% calling this season a "push." If he has a good showing in the playoffs, then I'm calling the entirety of the season a small step forward.

It would be best for both parties to do a 1-yr with a small bump up. We get to keep him for one more RFA contract year, and he knows he just needs to not break his leg to get a sizable jump in pay the following season. A 2-yr deal would be scary, since he would have a UFA avenue, and our best move in that scenario would be to trade him so that he doesn't threaten to walk.

Unfortunately, I can't think of a number for 3+ years that works for both of us. Like, would he even take a Chytil deal? I bet he would think he's worth more, and some here might think he's not even worth that.

 

[Clark Kellogg]

This isn't a very good question honestly. There are teams out there who would gladly sign Trouba for (2) years @ $8m (by the way he makes $6m per season in real $$). Not every team can sign UFA's like the Rangers can normally attract.

But lets assume there is no team in the NHL that would take him, which I believe to be untrue, what if the Rangers retained $2m, or took back a depth player on an okay contract to help off-set some of those dollars?

Let's just use a few examples of what I mean:

To BUF:
Trouba

To NYR:
Greenway + picks


To DET:
Trouba

To NYR:
Maata + Picks


To NSH:
Trouba

To NYR:
Glass or Lauzon + picks



There are options and honestly, I doubt any of those (3) teams above are on his list. MAYBE Buffalo but possibly not. Buffalo isn't far from home (Michigan) for him.

I can’t see Greenway coming here unless you’re moving Rempe out.
His brother hasn’t been the same since last year’s beatdown.

 

[bobbop]

Before his injury, he looked pretty good while his line wasn't scoring. 20 & 93 had 6 different RW on their line while he was out, and it showed that the lack of production wasn't because of Kakko. Then, when he comes back, we're still trying to get Mika going 5v5 with different RWs, and need Kakko to solidify the 3rd line. His same role as last year. Therefore, I'm 100% calling this season a "push." If he has a good showing in the playoffs, then I'm calling the entirety of the season a small step forward.

It would be best for both parties to do a 1-yr with a small bump up. We get to keep him for one more RFA contract year, and he knows he just needs to not break his leg to get a sizable jump in pay the following season. A 2-yr deal would be scary, since he would have a UFA avenue, and our best move in that scenario would be to trade him so that he doesn't threaten to walk.

Unfortunately, I can't think of a number for 3+ years that works for both of us. Like, would he even take a Chytil deal? I bet he would think he's worth more, and some here might think he's not even worth that.

The contract situation really complicates things. With a one year, if he had a big year, he holds all the cards. We pay through the nose (not a bad thing) or he can take a one year arb offer straight to UFA. if he shits the bed in his D+6 season, we have a near worthless asset. Tough decision.

I’m of a mind to move him sooner than later, assuming there’s a good return available,

 

[Kendo]

The contract situation really complicates things. With a one year, if he had a big year, he holds all the cards. We pay through the nose (not a bad thing) or he can take a one year arb offer straight to UFA. if he shits the bed in his D+6 season, we have a near worthless asset. Tough decision.

I’m of a mind to move him sooner than later, assuming there’s a good return available,

With a one year, if he has a big year, him and Laff get the same deal. If he wants to take less than our offer to keep it to one year, so be it. We accept it and trade him at the deadline. He doesn't hold the cards.

 

[Kendo]

Thinking he might have an even worse season than this one is Debbie Downer behavior. It's possible, but geez. It's not like even if he plays "pretty well," you'll come out saying "I was wrong thinking he might be a bed shitter."

I'm not assuming he'll have a Laff season next season, but I'm assuming he won't be part of a more important player's struggles, nor will he be injured for a quarter of the season.

$100 bet. You win if he doesn't match this season's total points for whatever reason. I win if he hits .5 points per game. Otherwise, no exchange. Are you taking that action?

 

[HatTrick Swayze]

The contract situation really complicates things. With a one year, if he had a big year, he holds all the cards. We pay through the nose (not a bad thing) or he can take a one year arb offer straight to UFA. if he shits the bed in his D+6 season, we have a near worthless asset. Tough decision.

I’m of a mind to move him sooner than later, assuming there’s a good return available,

The player he is now is plenty valuable. He’s already a very good 2 way middle 6 option for a contending team.

I think of anything he and his agent will push for a change of scenery.

 

[bobbop]

With a one year, if he has a big year, him and Laff get the same deal. If he wants to take less than our offer to keep it to one year, so be it. We accept it and trade him at the deadline. He doesn't hold the cards.

Not the same. Lafreniere will get his big contract this summer. He’s earned it. 7-8 years

Kakko is a year deeper into his career and has not yet demonstrated that kind of value. He’s valuable but not big casino valuable. @HatTrick Swayze may be right — he may look for a change of scenery.

Of course, the playoffs may change everything.

 

[egelband]

I guess I’m failing to see how things line up. This board is insistent Trouba is a bad defenseman. Not that he’s not worth his money. That he should be third pair or a healthy scratch. Yet at the same time someone is going to trade him, fake the full cap hit, and open up 8M space to be used elsewhere? Yea the real money is less that’s a minor factor. If the rangers retained 2M and then took someone like Greenway now they only have 3M to spend on his replacement which will be somehow who likely isn’t any good.

This board is actually not a singular person though.

 

[jay from jersey]

Yeah, you know all of the armchair GM's in here that think they are better than, you know, actual GM's have a comically short range of things that go into their "analysis" of why X needs to go for Y. Some of the takes on here are downright astounding for a team that's on it best 3 season run in its history and possibly equalling or bettering the win total that this franchise has EVER had. In almost ONE HUNDRED years. It's mind numbing sometimes.

I've listened to podcasts from all over the place for years with guests from backgrounds ranging from beat writers, scouts, former GM's, coaches, players, analytical gurus, and on and on and on and there's no one view that's "right".

But I did listen to Boyle's "spine player" conversation (Goodrow) and there's something that you can't glean from a chart. Trouba is a "spine player" for this team. You can argue however much you want to about their contract vs. their performance and have great arguments about that. However, part of that pay is their value to the team inside the room. Nobody here, not even the self proclaimed geniuses, have ANY clue what their removal does to this team, its performance, its leadership core, etc...

Neil Smith was talking about building the Cup team and says it pains him to this day to trade Tony Amonte for 2 3rd liners but he said it's what the team needed and was obviously right despite the cost. That team needed certain role players. This team didn't need Guentzl, it needed pieces that contributed to the group and left the room and the leadership alone. Drury accomplished that.

Kane and Tarasenko were brought in last year and clearly impacted the leadership group on the team. Neither was brought back. Lesson learned.

3 or 4 teams in the East have a bona fide chance at winning the Cup. Be happy your NYR are one of them.

Agreed. Like it or not, 1 wears a C and 1 wears an A on their sweaters.
You can say they are overpaid/bad/etc whatever argument you want to make, but both guys have been instrumental about the culture change since they have been brought in….. Lindgren too for that matter.
All 3 take too much shit on message boards here, but having 52 wins is a damn fine season.
I didn’t expect it tbh. And they likely aren’t going to be as good next season.
Imo they will probably be secure in a wildcard spot unless Zibby/Panarin have another magic season…..
They are counting on more youth coming in next season to play a bigger role… how they produce/acclimate will certainly be rough at points…

Last offseason, if you told me this squad would be competing for the presidents trophy without shesty being in god mode for 99% of the year, I absolutely wouldn’t have believed it. I’m really enjoying the ride